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Download the Transcript DEMOCRACY-2020/10/02 1 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION DISINFORMED DEMOCRACY: THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF INFORMATION WARFARE Washington, D.C. Friday, October 2, 2020 Welcoming Remarks: JOHN R. ALLEN President, The Brookings Institution Opening Conversation: How Disinformation Threatens World Order: KEYNOTE: H.R. McMASTER Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University Former U.S. National Security Advisor MODERATOR: FIONA HILL Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe The Brookings Institution Panel 1: The Road to Russian Interference in 2016: MODERATOR: FIONA HILL Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe The Brookings Institution CATHERINE BELTON Special Correspondent, Reuters ARKADY OSTROVSKY Russia and Easter Europe Editor, The Economist THOMAS RID Professor of Strategic Studies Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies DAVID SHIMER Global Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Associate Fellow, Yale University Panel 2: Domestic Drivers of Disinformation: MODERATOR: CHRIS MESEROLE Fellow and Deputy Director, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative The Brookings Institution RENÉE DiRESTA Research Manager, Stanford Internet Observatory ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 600 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 DEMOCRACY-2020/10/02 2 ELAINE KAMARCK Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Effective Public Management The Brookings Institution KATE STARBIRD Associate Professor, Human Centered Design & Engineering University of Washington Panel 3: Novel strategies for countering information warfare MODERATOR: FIONA HILL Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe The Brookings Institution EILEEN DONAHOE Executive Director, Global Digital Policy Incubator, Stanford University Former U.S. Ambassador, United National Human Rights Council THOMAS KENT Adjunct Associate Professor of International and Public Affairs Columbia University DANIEL KIMMAGE Principal Deputy Coordinator, Global Engagement Center U.S. Department of State TEIJA TIILIKAINEN Directorm European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 600 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 DEMOCRACY-2020/10/02 3 P R O C E E D I N G S GENERAL ALLEN: Good morning, ladies and gentleman. My name is John Allen and I’m the president of the Brookings Institution. And it is a great pleasure to welcome you to this event, this virtual conference entitled “Disinformed Democracy: The Past, the Present, and the Future of Information Warfare.” And before I begin I want to take a moment to address the troubling news that we’ve heard this morning that President Trump and the First Lady have contracted COVID-19. This is a very serious moment for our nation and a moment in which our shared American values, especially empathy and as well charity must be on full display. It’s also a moment where the resiliency of our institutions will be further tested, as well as one that highlights the critical importance of medical, science-based guidance and research. Beyond the 7.3 million infected Americans and the over 208,000 precious Americans who’ve lost their lives, when I spend some time very morning in contemplation and prayer for all of them, I now turn to the entire First Family. They are very much in my thoughts and prayers this morning, and I hope you’ll join me in wishing them well for a quick and full recovery in the midst of these challenging moments. So, now to the purpose of our gathering this morning. As part of Brookings’ Policy 2020 series, this conference is part of a greater effort to “empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, nonpartisan information to better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office in 2020.” The importance of this undertaking simply can’t be overstated, especially considering the theme of today’s event. Now, as witnessed in the lead-up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election when Russian agents launched a comprehensive disinformation campaign directly against the American people, information can be easily weaponized to great effect. These types of operations can rob individuals of their confidence and even desire to exercise their own sacred democratic right, which is to vote. Indeed, we’re seeing this happen in real time internationally, as well as right here in the United States, especially as the Election Day draws nearer. Recent reports indicating that the Kremlin has begun to employ advanced artificially intelligent ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 600 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 DEMOCRACY-2020/10/02 4 systems to create and deploy false social media accounts only adds to the urgency of this issue. For those of who have been closely watching and following this topic, we know that this has, in fact, been happening for some time, for years, in fact. But it will only worsen as core technologies, such as artificial intelligence, supercomputing, and big data analytics, both mature and become interconnected. Indeed, modern conflicts will be defined by these capabilities and governments much catch up if they’re to not be left entirely behind by this new reality. At the same time, there is also a clear and overwhelming need for a whole of society approach to bolster and protect every citizen’s right to fair and democratic process. So, to that end, I’m very pleased to welcome an excellent set of panelists today who join us from across academia, the tech sector, government, and the media. They’ll be speaking across three separate panels this morning and early afternoon, and we’re really very honored to have such a seasoned and distinguished group. First, however, to kick off today’s conference we are deeply honored to welcome Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, United States Army, as our keynote speaker. A visionary leader by any standard and a dear friend, H.R. McMaster has dedicated his life to public service. Again and again, he has timelessly demonstrated his unique brilliance as a soldier and scholar and one of the best officers to come out of West Point in the modern era. At a personal level, I know him to be a gallant and heroic leader in combat. And he has translated those characteristics into the moral leadership which has defined him in the period since. His reputation as an academic and thought leader has earned him high praise for his first book, one I read very carefully in my earlier years, “Dereliction of Duty.” It’s a book with lessons still enormously relevant today. I’ve little doubt that his second one, which was just published this past September entitled “Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World,” will rise to the same pedigree. On a personal note, I’ll also share that when we were both together in Afghanistan, H.R. was instrumental in supporting our efforts via his leadership of a counter-corruption combined joint interagency task force called Shafafiyat, which was all about transparency. And during our time together he demonstrated without fail his core principles of ethics and integrity which were unimpeachable. I was proud to stand alongside you then, H.R., and it is a great pleasure to welcome you and to honor you this morning and to have us in this crucial conversation. ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 600 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 DEMOCRACY-2020/10/02 5 Moderating this discussion today is Brookings’ senior fellow, Dr. Fiona Hill, a person of great integrity; also a long-time public service. Dr. Hill is an expert on European and Russian affairs and she most recently served as the deputy assistant to the President and senior director for European and Russian affairs in the National Security Council. It’s going to be an excellent, panel, ladies and gentlemen. And I hope you’ll listen closely to what they have to say and the views they will express and exchange together. I certainly will. Now, before I turn the floor over to them, a brief reminder that we’re very much on the record today and we’re streaming live. Please feel free to submit your questions via email either to [email protected] or on Twitter using the hashtag #Policy2020. And with that, thank you again, H.R. It’s wonderful to see you. Thank you for your commitment. Thank you for getting up so early and the for the vital issue that you’ll express today on the American people and helping us to preserve our democracy. Fiona, the floor is yours. Thank you. MS. HILL: Thank you so much, John. And the reference to General McMaster having to get up early is the fact that he’s actually out in California, so this is 6:30 in the morning. Although knowing General McMaster, because I had the great privilege and honor of working with him when he was National Security Advisor, he’s probably already been up for hours running around and paddleboarding, which he used to do even before he got to the office back in the day. So, it’s really wonderful to see, sir. Really delighted that you were willing to join us. I also wanted to, like General Allen, thank you not just for your service, but also for enlightening so much with recent books. I have the copy of your book here, Battlegrounds, and I know that you’ve been speaking about this over the last week or so since the book was released at the end of last month. And, of course, it very well frames the discussion that we’re hoping to have today because in the book, Battlegrounds, you take on all of the challenges that are facing the United States in the national security arena and the information space is one of those battlegrounds that you talk about.
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