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Buy Wanda Film 2 March 2018 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Wanda Film Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date Buy Wanda Film 2 March 2018 Company Update Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 3 Jul 2017 (CNY) 52.04 Consumer 002739.SZ 002739 CH SHZ 002739 Price target - 12mth (CNY) 74.00 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming 52-week range (CNY) 60.15 - 50.97 Shenzhen Index 1,918 2017 profit miss, cutting PT to RMB74; Solid 2M18 box office results - Buy Valuation & Risks Tallan Zhou 2017 preliminary earnings miss consensus; maintain Buy on revenue mix change and 2018E box office growth Research Analyst Wanda Film’s 2017 top/bottom-line missed consensus by 8%/15%, based on its +852-2203 6464 preliminary results. We believe the miss on profit is due to the lower margin result from its aggressive new cinema openings (1,000 new movie screens added Karen Tang in 2017). Therefore, we roll over and cut our 2018/2019 earnings forecasts by Research Analyst 13% /13% to reflect this. Given that 1) its continued revenue mix change and +852-2203 6141 2) our 2018E China box office growth forecast of 14-16%, we maintain Buy on Wanda Film with a new TP of RMB74. Key changes TP 86.00 to 74.00 ↓ -14.0% Sales (FYE) 17,722 to ↓ -8.8% Revenue mix change may continue in 2018E 16,165 Revenue from non-box office was RMB5.1bn in 2017, yoy growth of 31%. Op prof margin 21.0 to 20.7 ↓ -1.3% Wanda’s non-box office revenue as percentage has increased to 39% from 32% (FYE) in 2016. This is mainly due to increasing 1) commodity sales including restaurants Net profit (FYE) 2,981.9 to ↓ -12.7% and movie derivative products and 2) movie advertising and promotion business. 2,604.6 Such businesses enjoy higher margins (c.50% of gross margin) compared to the Source: Deutsche Bank traditional movie screen business (c. 20% of gross margin). We believe Wanda Price/price relative has become less reliant on the box office and tried to leverage its sizable traffic for 100 repeated consumption. Since the company is still undergoing cinema expansion, 75 we also believe that the revenue mix change may continue in 2018E. 50 25 Solid 2M18 results; we are expecting a 14-16% 2018E box office growth Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '18 Total Box office collection in China in Feb 2018 was a record-breaking RMB10.1bn, increased by 64% yoy (vs. RMB6.2bn in Feb 2017). Three Chinese Wanda Film Shenzhen Index (Rebased) movies (Detective Chinatown Vol 2 with RMB2.9bn, Operation Red Sea with Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m RMB2.5bn and Monster Hunt 2 with RMB2.1bn) contributed c. 75% of total box Absolute 0.0 0.0 -10.8 office in Feb 2018. Total box office of RMB15bn in 2M18 got off to a good start, Shenzhen Index 0.7 -4.3 -8.7 implying an increase of 36% (vs. RMB11bn in 2M18). Given such solid results at Source: Deutsche Bank the start of 2018, we are confident on our full year box office growth forecast of Key indicators (FY1) 14-16%. ROE (%) 20.3 Net debt/equity (%) 15.2 Valuation and risks Book value/share (CNY) 11.92 We derive our target price from a DCF valuation (beta 1.1, 8.7% WACC, and 4% TG Price/book (x) 4.4 given the structural long-term growth in China's film industry, all unchanged). The Net interest cover (x) 15.4 stock (suspended since July 2017) last closing price implies 23.5x PE on our 2018 Operating profit margin (%) 20.7 earnings forecast. Key downside risks include competition from online media and Source: Deutsche Bank insufficient high-quality movies. Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its reseDistributedarch repo ron:ts. T02/03/2018hus, inves t13:12:07ors shou lGMTd be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE ’ S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa 2 March 2018 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Wanda Film Figure 1: 2017 preliminary results RMBm 2016 2017 yoy% Cons. Diff. Revenue 11,209 13,192 18% 14,401 -8% EBIT 1,554 1,825 17% 2,303 -21% Pre-tax profit 1,808 1,866 3% 2,404 -22% Net profit 1,366 1,506 10% 1,768 -15% Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 2: 2M18 movie box office details English Name Chinese Name Box office (RMBm) January The Ex-File: The Return of the Exes 3 1,625.89 Total 4,950 Forever Young 647.30 Chinese 66% 3,253 Secret Superstar 482.43 Hollywood/Foreign 34% 1,697 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 476.43 Star Wars: The last Jedi 267.39 Youth 231.77 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 3 199.38 Wonder 136.11 Ferdinand 135.03 Hanson and the Beast 122.49 Others 625.38 Feburary Detective Chinatown Vol 2 2 2,868.18 Total 10,129 Operation Red Sea 2,496.68 Chinese 96% 9,749 Monster Hunt 2 2 2,113.35 Hollywood/Foreign 4% 380 The Monkey King 3: Kingdom of Women 703.48 Boonie BearsThe Big Shrink · 547.19 Secret Superstar 264.19 Till the End of the World 233.06 The Faces of My Gene 145.41 Maze Runner: The Death Cure 3 115.72 Forever Young 106.30 Others 535.69 Source: EntGroup Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 2 March 2018 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Wanda Film Forecasts and ratios Year End Dec 31 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Sales (CNYm) 11,209.3 13,191.7 16,165.4 18,921.4 21,152.5 EBITDA (CNYm) 2,439.7 3,074.3 4,999.1 6,339.3 7,432.4 Reported NPAT (CNYm) 1,366.4 1,505.1 2,604.6 3,252.7 3,777.6 Reported EPS FD(CNY) 1.16 1.28 2.22 2.77 3.22 DB EPS FD(CNY) 0.98 1.28 2.22 2.77 3.22 OLD DB EPS FD(CNY) 1.31 2.00 2.54 3.19 – % Change -25.1% -35.9% -12.7% -13.1% – DB EPS growth (%) -0.5 30.4 73.1 24.9 16.1 PER (x) 75.7 41.9 23.5 18.8 16.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 36.0 21.2 12.6 9.8 8.2 DPS (net) (CNY) 0.20 0.22 0.38 0.48 0.55 Yield (net) (%) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 2 March 2018 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Wanda Film Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure Wanda Film 002739.SZ 52.04 (CNY) 1 Mar 2018 NA *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/ DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Tallan Zhou Historical recommendations and target price. Wanda Film (002739.SZ) (as of 03/01/2018) 100.00 Current Recommendations Buy Hold 1 Sell 75.00 2 Not Rated Suspended Rating 3 ** Analyst is no longer at Deutsche Bank 50.00 Security price 25.00 0.00 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 Date 1. 07/07/2016 Buy, Target Price Change CNY 111,00 Tallan Zhou 3. 01/17/2017 Buy, Target Price Change CNY 86,00 Tallan Zhou 2. 08/01/2016 Buy, Target Price Change CNY 100,00 Tallan Zhou §§§§$$$$$§§§§§ Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 2 March 2018 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Wanda Film Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock. Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.
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