Equal in the Face of Death? Explaining Regional Differences in Wealth

Home , County of Hainaut, Count of Flanders, Sambre

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ALL EQUAL IN THE FACE OF DEATH?

Explaining regional differences in wealth inequality after the Black Death. The case of social agrosystems in rural Hainaut (1250-1500).

Joris ROOSEN (Utrecht University) [email protected]

Sam GEENS (FWO, University of Antwerp) [email protected]

Despite its longstanding historiographical tradition, the topic of wealth inequality has gained particular momentum during the last decade. Especially the Global Financial Crisis of 2007- 2008, with its negative effects on unemployment and poverty levels, has spurred the interest of social scientists and policy makers. In search of the drivers of inequality, scholars have not only focused on the present day, but have increasingly turned towards premodern societies. Most notably, the EINITE-project under the supervision of Guido Alfani has retraced evolutions of wealth in Italy and the Low Countries between the fourteenth and nineteenth century.1 In both regions, inequality tended to increase over the whole period except for the century after the Black Death. Other studies, although few and with a more limited geographic or chronological scope, seem to confirm this universal rise of inequality.2

These new results challenge us to rethink traditional theories on the distribution of wealth. In his pioneering work, Jan Luiten van Zanden extended the ideas of Simon Kuznets to premodern times and argued that, in this period, economic growth went hand in glove with increasing inequality.3 However, his hypothesis seems improbable in the light of recent studies on stagnating and declining economies, such as early modern Florence or Flanders, where inequality increased just the same. 4 In addition, an analysis of the relationship between GDP per capita and economic inequality yielded no significant results.5 Several scholars have therefore proposed a variety of new explanations. In general, they can be grouped under three possible drivers. First, a lot of weight has been given to demography.

1 See for Italy: G. Alfani and F. Ammannati, ‘Long-term trends in economic inequality’, Economic History Review, 70/4 (2017), pp. 1072-1102; Alfani, ‘Economic Inequality in Northwestern Italy’, Journal of Economic History, 75/4 (2015), pp. 1058–1096. For the Low Countries: W. Ryckbosch, ‘Economic inequality and growth before the industrial revolution’, European Review of Economic History, 20/1 (2016), pp. 1-22. 2 See for example: M.M. Coşgel, and B.A. Ergene, ‘Inequality of wealth in the Ottoman Empire’, Journal of Economic History, 72 (2012), pp. 308-331; E.A. Nicolini and F. Ramos Palencia, ‘Decomposing income inequality in a backward pre-industrial economy’, Economic History Review, 69 (2016), pp. 747-772; J. Reis, ‘Deviant behaviour? Inequality in Portugal 1565–1770’, Cliometrica, 11 (2017), pp. 297–319. 3 J.L. van Zanden, ‘Tracing the beginning of the Kuznets curve’, Economic History Review, XLVIII (1995), pp. 643-664. 4 Alfani, ‘Long-term trends in economic inequality’. 5 B. Milanovic, ‘Towards an explanation of inequality in premodern societies’, Economic History Review, forthcoming (available online: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ehr.12613). See esp. table 2. 1

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Inequality appears to increase with population growth and population density, while demographic shocks, like plague or warfare, can cause a decrease.6 Second, it is possible that the organization of production steered inequality through the endowment of its principal factors and the functional distribution of income. In this classical framework, wealth is more likely to be unevenly distributed in economies focusing on large-scale, standardized production with low wages than in those focusing on skill-intensive production where labor is highly valued.7 Lastly, historians have pointed at the power of (local) elites to create coercive institutions that regulate the way wealth can be accumulated, such as taxation or access to commons.8

Due to the still very limited amount and fragmented nature of data, the above explanations remain highly hypothetical and scholars have stressed the need for more empirical research. This paper seeks to contribute to this developing field by analyzing the regional evolutions of wealth inequality within the countryside of the county of Hainaut in the century and half after the Black Death. This period is arguably one of the most interesting to research premodern wealth, since studies on Tuscany and Piedmont suggest that, at this time, societies witnessed both a rare prolonged decline of inequality and the beginning of its long-term increase.9 Retracing the distribution of wealth allows us to verify if Hainaut experienced a similar process. Did the Black Death and recurrent plague waves had an egalitarian effect here as well? When did the trend reverse (Section 2. Retracing wealth in an era of demographic shocks)? Furthermore, by comparing inequality between four subregions, we hope to test the explanatory power of non-demographic drivers for rural Hainaut. Can the observed evolutions be attributed to productional and/or institutional factors (Section 3. Wealth and social agrosystems)? Depending on the place and time, such an explanation might vary. For example, Guido Alfani showed that plague induced depopulation in Piedmont had a very different impact in the fourteenth century than it had in the seventeenth century because of institutional change. While partible inheritance was common in the former period, families had adopted strategies to prevent patrimonial fragmentation by the latter period.10 However, before examining such changes in wealth distributions and their explanations, we first highlight the case study and its different sources.

6 For population density: Milanovic, ibid. For population growth: P.T. Hoffman et al., ‘Real Inequality in Europe since 1500’, Journal of Economic History, 62/2 (2002), pp. 322-355. For demographic shocks: W. Scheidel, The Great Leveler, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2017, esp. pp.289-342; Alfani, ‘Wealth Inequalities and Population Dynamics in Early Modern Northern Italy’, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, XL/4 (2010), pp.513-549. 7 Ryckbosch, ‘Economic inequality and growth’. 8 M. Di Tullio, ‘Cooperating in time of crisis: war, commons, and inequality in Renaissance Lombardy’, Economic History Review, 71/1 (2018), pp. 82-105. 9 Alfani and Ammannati, ‘Long-term trends in economic inequality’; Alfani, ‘Economic Inequality in Northwestern Italy’. 10 Alfani, ibid., pp.1077-1078. 2

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1. The county of Hainaut and its sources

Late medieval Hainaut was a county in the south of the Low Countries, encompassing at its largest extent 4656 km² (see Appendix 1).11 Although it was never a leading economic or political center of Europe, its great variety of productional organization and institutions within a geographically limited area makes Hainaut an ideal case for our comparative analysis of wealth distribution. To differentiate between subregions within the county, we utilize the concept of social agrosystems. This theoretical framework identifies ‘systems of rural production based upon region-specific social relations involved in the economic reproduction of a given geographical area’. 12 Specifically, environment, access to land, power structures, income strategies, and farming techniques are taken into account. The approach avoids the common mistake of seeing administrative borders as defining economic borders.

Based on the shared characteristics described in the extensive work of Gérard Sivéry on rural Hainaut, we were able to identify four subregions in the county: northeast, northwest, southeast and southwest (see Appendix 2 for an overview of all characteristics per region).13 They are separated by a central area around the capital of Mons which can best be described as a transitionary zone (see map 1). Since a clear set of common characteristics is lacking, this area is excluded from our comparative analysis, though, whenever the entire county is discussed, the data for these localities are included.

Three out of the four subregions consist of fertile loamy soil, which makes them well suited for cereal cultivation. Here, the majority of the population were farmers who sold their produce at local or specialized grain markets, such as those of Valenciennes, Ath and Mons. A large part of the surplus was traded with the nearby county of Flanders, which needed a constant import to feed its highly urbanized population. The way grain production was organized within each subregion, however, differed significantly. In the southwest, local ecclesiastical lords had a very strong position and village communities were weak, with little organization and hardly any formal responsibilities. This was reflected by the enforcement of a “Flurzwang-system” (i.e. a communal system in which all the arable land was employed in a large three-field system). Peasants were forced to grow certain crops and follow a certain crop rotation on their individual holdings, which were often smaller than 1 hectares. Only from the second half of the 15th century, the collective forced three-field system started to decline in favour of short-term leasehold for small holdings. Similarly to the major grain producing regions of Northern France, Artois and Cambrésis, those micro-holdings were contrasted by large farms (>40 hectares or 100 acres) producing for the international market. Through seasonal labour on the latter, small peasants complemented their income.

11 M.A. Arnould, Dénombrement des foyers dans le comte de Hainaut, Brussels: Palais des Académies, 1956, p. 287. 12 For a recent overview, see: E. Thoen and T. Soens, ‘The family or the farm: a Sophie’s choice? The late medieval crisis in Flanders’, in J. Drendel (ed.), Crisis in the later middle ages. Beyond the Postan–Duby paradigm, Brepols: Turnhout, 2015, pp. 195–224 (citation: p.196). 13 Most importantly: G. Sivéry, Structures agraires et vie rurale dans le Hainaut à la fin du Moyen Age, Lille: Presses Universitaires de Lille, 1977; Ibid., ‘Recherches sur l'aménagement des terroirs des plateaux du Hainaut-Cambrésis à la fin du Moyen Age’, Revue du Nord, 200 (1969), pp.5-26; Ibid., ‘Les profits de l'éleveur et du cultivateur dans le Hainaut à la fin du moyen âge’, Annales E.S.C., 3 (1976), pp. 604- 630. 3

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Map 1. The four social agrosystems of late medieval Hainaut

Map key Agrosystems: northwest northeast southwest southeast

Administrative districts 1. Castellany of Ath 11. Provostship of Bavay 2. Land of Flobecq and Lessines 12. Provostship of Maubeuge 3. Bailiwick of Enghien 13. Provostship of Beaumont 4. Castellany of Brain-le-Comte 14. Principality of Chimay 5. Bailiwick of Roeulx 15. Land of Avesnes 6. Provostship of Binche 7. Provostship of Mons 8. Provostship of Valenciennes 9. Castellany of Bouchain 10. Provostship of Quesnoy

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In the northeast, no forced three-field system was in place despite an equally strong lordly power. Here, lay lords did not intervene directly in the manner of cultivation, but rather leased out their large farms for long periods, often to multiple generations of the same family through hereditary tenure. Although strong population growth (cf. Infra) put increasing pressure on the availability of land and profitability declined due to intensified competition on the Flemish grain markets during the fifteenth century, massive open fields remained and tenant-farmers actually succeeded in enlarging their holdings at the expense of the more numerous small freeholders. The latter, confronted with the continuous fragmentation of their holdings, eventually evolved into a specialized (nearly) landless workforce of agricultural labourers deployed on the tenant-farms. As a result, the number and size of hamlets increased significantly during this period.

In the northwest, lords and farmers reacted differently to the fifteenth-century demographic and economic challenges mentioned earlier. Instead of favoring larger holdings and their tenants over a long term, fields were divided into small strip-plots and leased out for short periods to maximize profit. As holdings became increasingly fragmented and the lease market more competitive, farmers looked for additional ways to complement their declining incomes. From the fourteenth century onwards, the northwest had become the core of the linen industry in Hainaut, with cloth manufacturing cities such as Mons and Ath. Small peasants profited from this booming industry by producing linen and cultivating the raw material (i.e. flax). At the same time, the transition to a very labour-intensive economy allowed the further fragmentation of holdings into ever smaller plots.

In the last subregion, the southeast, the soil did not consist of loam, but mainly of brown earth and lime. While the latter is still suitable for agriculture, the quality of the former is superior thanks to its ability to retain nutrients better. Furthermore, the subregion is characterized by the greatest differences in altitude within the county, influencing water drainage. Already from the High Middle Ages on, strong village communities had successfully resisted local lordships, securing rights to the communal pastures, located on the lower and wetter grounds, and securing strong property rights over arable land. Holdings were passed on through a form of hereditary leasehold or tenure called “mainferme”. While cereal cultivation was the dominant form of farming around 1300, this soon began to change. In search for higher profits, farmers increasingly converted arable land into pastures. Although this trend started before the Black Death, the prolonged demographic decline accelerated the shift because animal breeding was less labour intensive and, consequently, more profitable in times of labour scarcity. By the fifteenth century, already half of the land in the villages had been turned into meadows to pasture livestock. At the same time, the numerous communal grounds were being leased out to the highest bidder, setting in motion a process whereby wealthy farmers appropriated the communes. Without access to grazing grounds, small peasants could no longer compete nor could they find much work in the labour extensive pastoral economy. As a result, a rural exodus followed, contributing to the population decline.

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In order to retrace wealth distribution in the county of Hainaut and its subregions, we analyse a different type of source than hitherto used in the literature on premodern inequality. While most studies utilize direct taxations related to immovable property, such as housing, within a single locality to quantify the distribution of wealth, there are no comparable sources available for late medieval Hainaut. This is not to say that such taxes were never levied. The count relied regularly on direct taxation, but the records only show how the levies were divided between the localities and not how they were divided among the households within the localities.14 Instead of tax records, we employ mortmain accounts as a proxy for wealth. The term ‘mortmain’ is reminiscent of the legal term found in regions with English, French and Anglo-Norman juridical authorities, referring to the alienation of land to the dead hand of the Church.15 However, the Hainaut mortmain accounts are more comparable to English heriot taxes since both were paid as a death duty in the form of the best movable possession of the deceased. The main difference is that heriots were levied on tenants payable to a manorial lord, while mortmain was levied on a broad range of people that came from an ancestral lineage of servitude. Even though few people in Hainaut were actually unfree in the fourteenth and fifteenth century, it has been estimated that roughly 10-16% of the population still paid the mortmain because of the broad interpretation of feudal law.16 The majority of them lived in the countryside as most, but not all, urban dwellers were exempt. After the death of a subject with a lineage of servitude, the heirs (if surviving) were obligated to show the three best items of the deceased to the local bailiff who then picked one. Next, the impounded possession was sold at public auction.

The use of the mortmain as proxy has several advantages. Thanks to their yearly collection and the high preservation rate of their accounts, it provides us with an almost continuous series of wealth distribution for 307 localities (see Appendix 1 for the spatial coverage of the data). Only twenty-one years are missing for the period between 1349 and 1500. The earliest available record dates back to 1327, allowing us the analyse wealth distribution prior to the Black Death.17 In total, for almost 30.000 individuals the accounts list their names, place of death, seized movable good and its price at the public auction.18 The latter information allows us to quantify inequality based on real values of movables. Using this alternative proxy for wealth is, however, not self-evident. As mentioned earlier, most studies focus on immovable property because they make up for the bulk of one’s wealth.19 It is therefore essential to

14 There are, however, two exceptions. For the the city of Mons and the city of Antoign some tax records are preserved, but they are too limited and fragmented for the purpose of this paper. They will be analysed in a future paper. 15 E. Kittell, ‘Death and taxes: mortmain payments and the authority of the Count in fourteenth-century Flanders’, Continuity and Change, 28/2 (2013), pp. 187-211. 16 J. Roosen, ‘Severity and selectivity of the Black Death and recurring plague in the Southern Netherlands’, Tijdschrift voor Sociale en Economische Geschiedenis, 14 (2017), forthcoming. 17 Archives départementales du Nord (ADN), série B, nos. 12122-273; Algemeen Rijksarchief Brussel (ARB), nos. 17867-73; Archives de l’État à Mons (AEM), Tresorerie des comtes de Hainaut, Recette des mortemains, 08.005 no. 48. 18 The complete database encompasses more than 45.000 records of mortmain, but the price at public auction was not always available due to the state of the document or omission by the comital administration. 19 Capital in a premodern society mainly consisted of land. T. Pikkety, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Harvard: Harvard University Press (2013), p. 149. 6

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Table 1. Correlations between the mortmain and taxation on the one hand and different wealth estimations on the other in Mons (between 1280-1296)

Estimations of wealth Immovable Movable Mixed Sum Mortmain Pearson Correlation 0,180 0,354 0,903** 0,848** Sig. (2-tailed) 0,575 0,315 0,000 0,000 N 12 10 19 29 Tax Pearson Correlation n/a n/a 0,804** n/a Sig. (2-tailed) 0,000 N 170

** : Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2tailed) Mixed: Refers to estimations whereby both movable and immovable goods were valued together Sum: Combines estimations for which we have both movable and immovable goods or the mixed appraisal Sources: See footnotes 21 and 22

To test the relationship, we confronted an estimate of mortmain for the citizens of Mons with three estimates of their wealth and two taxations for the same period (see Table 1). The latter two types of sources were drawn up around 1280 in response to the city’s obligation to pay either an exceptional tax, called “taille”, or a gift to the count of Hainaut, John II of Avesnes. The estimations encompass the value of immovables goods for the quarter of Pont de Trouille (95 households or about 8% of the total population), the value of movable goods for the same quarter (123 households), and the value of all goods combined for the quarter of Rue Nimy (196 households; defined as mixed in Table 1).20 The tax records pertain to the quarter of the Marché (82 households) and, similar to the estimations, to the quarter of Rue Nimy (246 households).21 The mortmain records, on the other hand, cover the entire city. In 1295, the count granted several privileges to Mons in order to bolster economic growth, including the exemption to pay the mortmain. In exchange for this concession, all citizens with possessions valuing less than 30 livres Tournois de Hainaut (TH) had to pay a one-time fee, while those with values above said benchmark had to pay the equivalent of their best movable good. In other words, they simply paid their mortmain prematurely.22 For the wealthier group, a document has survived, listing the estimations and (partial) settlements of

20 C. Piérard, Les plus anciens comptes de la ville de Mons (1279-1356), Brussel: Paleis der Academiën (1971), pp.517-528. The number of citizens in Mons at the end of the thirteenth century totalled 1119 according to M.-A. Arnould, ‘Les plus ancien roles d'impots de la ville de mons (hainaut), 1281-1299’, in: Melanges de Philologie Romane, Göteborg: Karl Michaëlsson (1952), p. 11. 21 M.-A. Arnould, ibidem; C. Piérard, ibidem, pp. 528-535. 22 For the charters with the stipulations, see: L. Devillers, Cartulaire des rentes et cens du au comte de Hainaut, Mons: Dequesne-Masquillier (1875), vol. II, pp. 272-285. 7

PRELIMINARY DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS. their best movable good (444 households).23 Through record linking, we were able to identify 31 households in both the estimations of wealth and the estimation of mortmain (a match of 10%), as well as 170 households in both the estimations of wealth and the tax levy for the quarter of Rue Nimy (87% match). Table 1 shows the result of the regression analysis. The value of the mortmain appears to be a weak proxy for movable or immovable property alone, but, in stark contrast, they display a strong correlation with the two data sets for total wealth. Indeed, both the mixed estimations, who pertain to the appraisals for which we only have a combined value, and the estimations for which we could sum up the values of movables and immovables can be predicted with relatively certainty through the use of mortmain records (respectively, R²=0,815 and 0,719). Moreover, these relations seem stronger than those between the appraisals and the taxation (R²=0,646). This is not surprising given that taxation in the Southern Low Countries was often based on income levels adjusted to wealth rather than total wealth alone.24 In sum, the linear regression suggests that the mortmain accounts can be used as a proxy for total wealth in late medieval Hainaut.

Besides being a reliable proxy and offering an almost continuous series for a large part of the countryside of Hainaut, the mortmain also has the advantage of including a wide range of socio-economic groups. Only the hereditary nobility, professional clergy and high officers were exempt. A survey of titles in our database revealed the presence of both high-status individuals, such as mayors (n=3) or sires (n=152), and poor people described as beggars (n=425). Furthermore, the data are characterized by wide disparities in the value of the goods, ranging from a meagre 1,5 deniers TH (equivalent of 0,5 liter wheat) to a staggering 25.512 deniers TH (or 13.400 liters wheat).25 In this respect, the mortmain accounts are much more inclusive than taxation records pertaining to immovable property. Whereas a large part of society was often found too poor to contribute to direct taxation and was thus often omitted in the records, their “best good” could still be levied upon their death. In some instances, the local bailiff resorted to literally taking the shirt off the backs of the poor.

On the other hand, the mortmain probably suffers from the disadvantage of underestimating the wealth at the top of society. Arguably, the price of one movable good scales poorly when total wealth reaches a certain threshold, though given the high values encountered in the mortmain (cf. Supra) this probably only holds true for groups that were a priori excluded from paying a death duty, such as the high nobility and clergy. Secondly, the accounts do not offer a comprehensive cross-section of society in any given year like taxation records do, but only relate to the wealth of the deceased (with a lineage of servitude). As a consequence, inequality trends in the mortmain may lag behind societal changes. This is especially true for

23 AEM, Tresorerie des comtes de Hainaut, Recette des mortemains, AEM.08.005 no 48 24 Zoete, De Beden in het Graafschap Vlaanderen onder de Hertogen Jan Zonder Vrees en Filips De Goede (1405-1467), Brussel: Paleis der Academiën, 1994. 25 An average person in the medieval period is believed to have consumed 1 liters of cereals per day. Put differently, 1,5 deniers TH was not enough to feed one person for one day, while 25.512 deniers TH allowed one person to feed himself for almost 37 years. E. Thoen and T. Soens, “Vegetarians or Carnivores?: Standards of Living and Diet in Late Medieval Flanders,” in: S. Cavaciocchi (ed.), Economic and Biological Interactions in the Pre-industrial Europe 1(3th to 18th Centuries), 41 (2010), p. 493. 8

PRELIMINARY DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS. the impact of demographic shocks. Imagine a community struck by plague: while the surviving inhabitants probably saw their absolute levels of wealth increase through inheritance, such an effect is not directly visible in the mortmain of the deceased. As a rule, an inheritance boom favours the young in society since the elder have fewer relatives through which they could significantly expand their wealth.26 If the following year was characterized by normal mortality, more elder inhabitants would figure in the mortmain. As such, changes in wealth and inequality would lag even further behind. Because we have no information on the age of the deceased, it is very hard to control for changes in the mortality regime and, more importantly, the recorded population. When discussing trends in inequality, we therefore aggregate the data per multiple years.

2. Retracing wealth in an era of demographic shocks

The potential of the mortmain accounts is not limited to tracing inequality. They also provide valuable information on mortality in the county through the yearly registration of deceased subjects. It is important to note that the accounts only allow for tracing relative rather than absolute evolutions of mortality, because only 10-16% of the population paid the death duty (cf. supra). Considerable work has already been done by Daniel Curtis and Joris Roosen to identify demographic shocks caused by plague. Matching spikes in the average mortality per locality (see Appendix 3) with mentions of plague in narrative sources, they were able to identify several years as general outbreaks of plague in late medieval Hainaut (see table 2).27 Although the data show that the Black Death of 1349-1351 was one of the most devastating plague waves in the county of Hainaut, the mortmain probably underestimate real mortality because of an administrative breakdown during this period. Only for this period do the accounts contain a second recording of additional deaths for certain localities, which may indicate that local authorities were overwhelmed by the unprecedented mortality. Other devastating plague outbreaks occurred in 1358-63 and 1400-2.

Even though the majority of mortality spikes can be attested to plague, in many years, they coincided with other possible causes of demographic decline, namely famine and warfare. Both in 1364-67 and 1477-78, it is plausible that the latter two were the main reasons for the increased mortality rates.28 To determine the impact of famine, we calculated the yearly

26 Their parents were probably already deceased and siblings or offspring probably had their own children who received the bulk of their inheritance. Of course, elderly citizens could have inherited from family members who had no heirs, but these were only a minority. 27 D. Curtis and J. Roosen, ‘The sex-selective impact of the Black Death and recurring plagues in the Southern Netherlands’, American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 164/2, pp. 246-259; J. Roosen, ‘Severity and Selectivity of the Black Death and Recurring Plague in the Southern Netherlands (1349-1450)’, Tijdschrift voor Sociale en Economische Geschiedenis, 14/4 (2018), pp. 25-55. 28 In most cases malnutrition does not lead directly to death, but rather increases mortality through making people more susceptible to diseases. In the same vein, warfare facilitates the spread of diseases through the intensified movement of people, the destruction of crops and blockade of trade. The number of people killed on a battlefield were probably limited in this period. 9

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Figure 1. Five-yearly evolution of wealth inequality in the county of Hainaut (n= 29.427)

0,60

0,55

0,50

0,45

0,40 Wealth inequality (Gini coefficient) (Gini inequality Wealth

0,35 1320 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 1440 1460 1480 1500 Year

Note: Blue line depicts the 5-year moving average, while the green ones indicate plague years. Sources: Gini coefficients calculated from the mortmain database (see footnote 17). For plague years see below.

Table 2. Years of increased mortality and their possible causes

Peak Mortality Causes Years (avg/locality) Plague Famine Warfare 1349-51 6,99 Confirmed / / 1353 4,68 ? / / 1358-63 9,58 Confirmed Limited / 1364-67 5,92 ? Limited NE 1368-9 5,64 Confirmed Probably / 1380-2 4,93 Confirmed / / 1400-2 7,68 Confirmed / / 1413-16 5,35 Confirmed Limited / 1425-6 3,87 Confirmed / NE, NW, C, SW 1438-9 5,71 Confirmed Severe / 1453-59 4,05 Confirmed Probably / 1468-69 6,73 Confirmed / / 1477-78 5,20 ? Probably NW, SW 1482-84 5,45 Confirmed Severe NW, SW 1489 5,15 Confirmed Severe /

? : No mention of plague in narrative sources. / : Wheat prices below or on average. No major acts of warfare affecting Hainaut. Famines: At least two years of above average wheat prices with increases of <50% (limited), <100% (probably), or >100% (severe) in the whole of Hainaut. Warfare: Subregions affected by destructive acts of war (raids and sieges). Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), Central (C), Southwest (SW) and Southeast (SE).

PRELIMINARY DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS. wheat price for the whole of Hainaut based on price series of Mons, Maubeuge, Ath, Valenciennes and Le Quesnoy constructed by Sivéry.29 Whenever the price increased above the average level of the whole period (1295-1500=100) for multiple years in a row, we considered those years as potential demographic shocks. Depending on the level of increment, we labelled them as limited (less than 50% increase), probable (more than 50%), or severe (more than 100%) famine. The abnormal cold decade of the 1430’s, for example, culminated in a severe famine in 1438-9, with grain prices reaching more than twice their average levels.30 At the same time, plague broke out, resulting in massive mortality. The impact of warfare, on the other hand, is more ambiguous to assess given that most sources are anecdotical. Rather than trying to guestimate total destructions, we opted to look at the geographical pervasiveness of different wars. If multiple localities in one subregion were affected, we have reported the area in table 2. Especially the large farms and important grain markets of Valenciennes in southwest Hainaut suffered from warfare. For example, in the last quarter of the fifteenth century, when the succession of the ruling house of Burgundy was uncertain, the kings of France regularly besieged cities and pillaged the countryside in the hope to annex the county. The destruction of crops and the disruption of trade pushed grain prices upwards, resulting in above average prices during 17 of the 25 years. Increased taxation and at least four years of plague compounded the suffering of the population.

In figure 1, we confront our data on wealth inequality for the entire county of Hainaut with the identification of general outbreaks of plague. Generally speaking, inequality decreased significantly during the second half of the fourteenth century, especially when compared to the single observation before the pre-Black Death (Gini coefficient of 0,546 in 1327 vs. 0,422 in 1375-1399). From then on, wealth inequality increased steadily until the middle of the fifteenth century. The last half is characterized by a slight decrease in the 5-year average Gini coefficients, but also encompasses the highest yearly values. The described trend is broadly similar to the evolution in rural Tuscany described by Guido Alfani and Francesco Ammannati, most notably in the case of Santa Maria Impruneta.31 In Hainaut as well, the demographic shock of the Black Death seems to have triggered a more egalitarian distribution of wealth, though, and this is different from the current literature, this effect was not long-lasting. After only a decade, inequality increased rapidly between 1358 and 1370, surpassing even pre- Black Death levels. This is remarkable given that, during this period, one of the most devastating plague waves ravaged the countryside (the highest average mortality per locality in our database corresponds with 1360), grain prices increased and warfare with vassals of the count of Flanders destroyed farms in the northwest. Apparently, this deadly combination did not have the same effect as the first outbreak.

Scrutinizing the relationship between inequality and demography further, we can find more examples of the contradictorily impact of plague induced mortality. The short and fairly limited outbreaks of 1368-9 or 1425-6 seem to have a clear positive effect on wealth

29 G. Sivéry, Structures agraires et vie rurale, tome II, pp. 409, 414, 433, 481, 489, 515, 517, 547, 556. 30 Winters were especially harsh in 1432, 1435 and 1437, marking the beginning of the Little Ice Age in Northern Europe. In England, the harvest failures of 1437-38 resulted in the worst subsistence crisis of the century. B. Campbell, The Great Transition. Climate, Disease and Society in the Late-Medieval World, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (2016), pp. 345-346. 31 G. Alfani and F. Ammannati, ‘Long-term trends in economic inequality’, esp. figure 5 p. 1090. 11

PRELIMINARY DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS. distributions, but the one of 1400-2, believed to be one of the worst in the history of the Low Countries, is followed by a significant increase in inequality. Turning the argument around, inequality also declined in absence of demographic shocks, as was the case between 1445 and 1452. Consequently, any linear relationship between mortality and inequality proved to be insignificant or very weak, even when accounting for a delayed effect in the mortmain.32 If we only look at the passing of time, a significant correlation can be computed with the Gini coefficient (R=0,412; p<0,001), meaning that inequality in late medieval Hainaut was more likely to increase over time.33

It is important to note that our demographic data are incomplete because the mortmain only gives an impression of mortality, whereas fertility and migration, two other variables of population levels, remain obscured. Absolute demographic evolutions can nevertheless be derived from the frequently conducted hearth census. As the income derived from their domains became insufficient, the counts of Hainaut had to rely increasingly on direct taxation to cover their rising expenses. Following the example of the French king Philip VI, they instituted a hearth tax from 1365 on. A census of all the hearths per locality was compiled before every levy in order to divide the burden evenly among the population. For the period between 1365 and 1550, no less than ten hearth counts have been preserved. They have been compiled and published by Maurice-Aurélien Arnould.34 We have summarized his data on a regional and county-wide level (see appendix 4). Again, a relationship with wealth distribution seems unlikely. The strong population decline between the census of 1365 and 1406 (21,7% population loss) coincides with a significant decline in inequality, but, in contrast, a similar population decline between 1458 and 1479 (25% loss) had almost no impact on the wealth distribution (5-year average Gini coefficient increased from 0,490 to 0,498). Clearly, demographic shocks by themselves cannot explain changes in wealth inequality adequately. Instead, we must look for other factors that may have channeled the effects of severe population losses during this turbulent period in history and that may help to explain why societies in Hainaut became less equal over time.

3. Wealth and social agrosystems

To assess the impact of institutional and productional factors captured in our model of the four social agrosystems of Hainaut (see Section 1), we have computed regional trends for the Gini coefficient, the distribution of wealth expressed per percentiles, and the median real value of sold movables. The observations are aggregated per decade or twenty-five years to ascertain sufficient data points per subregion. For the absolute wealth levels, we have calculated the real values of the mortmain by dividing the nominal auction price with the ten-

32 Both bivariate and multivariate (including a time-variable, famine dummy, war dummy and plague dummy) regressions result in R² < 0,1, calculated for an immediate and a delayed effect after 1, 5, 10 and 20 years. 33 Calculated for the period 1349-1499. 34 Arnould, Les dénombrements de foyers. 12

PRELIMINARY DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS. year moving average wheat price.35 Given the skewed nature of wealth data, we have opted to plot the median value for each subregion rather than averages to represent wealth levels of the bulk of the population. Looking at the general trends in figure 2 and 3, two different periods can be distinguished. In the second half the fourteenth century, all subregions display very similar evolutions: because elites (top 10%) saw their fortunes dwindle in favour of the poorer half of the population (see Appendix 5), median real values of mortmain increased significantly and societies became more equal. All series of wealth inequality converge around 1400, but then diverge strongly for the following century, hinting at the impact of region specific factors.36

First, the northeast is characterized by a continuous increase of inequality from the 1430’s onwards. The distribution of wealth suggests that the poorest groups of society (

In the northwest, both inequality and wealth levels did not vary much after 1400 even though fragmentation of holdings, similar to the northeast, occurred on a largescale. The main difference with the latter area is that farmers in the northwest did have alternative ways to acquire income besides the cereal trade. As mentioned in section 1, cloth production and flax

35 See footnote 29 for wheat prices. 36 The average variance for Gini coefficients in the fifteenth century is almost double than that of the second half of the fourteenth century (0,017 vs. 0,009 respectively). 37 G. Sivéry, ‘Les profits de l'éleveur et du cultivateur’. 13

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Figure 2. Decennial averages of wealth inequality in the subregions of Hainaut (n= 29.427)

0,60

0,55

0,50

0,45

Gini Coefficient Gini 0,40

0,35

0,30 1320 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 1440 1460 1480 1500 Years

All Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest

Note: The series labelled as “all” refers to all subregions, including the transitionary zone around Mons. Source: database mortmain (see footnote 17)

Figure 3. Decennial medians of mortmain values per subregion of Hainaut (n= 29.427)

6,0

5,0

4,0

3,0

2,0

1,0 Valueof movable (in hl.of wheat)

0,0 1320 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 1440 1460 1480 1500 Year

All Northeast Northwest Southeast Southwest

Note: The series labelled as “all” refers to all subregions, including the transitionary zone around Mons. Value of movables expressed in hectolitres of wheat based on ten-year moving averages of wheat prices for the whole of Hainaut. Source: database mortmain (see footnote 17); grain prices from Sivéry (see footnote 29)

PRELIMINARY DRAFT. PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS. cultivation were an important part of the rural economy. This focus is reflected in the mortmain: the number of levied pieces of cloth was three times higher in the northwest than in other parts of Hainaut (respectively, 1,47% and 0,56% of all movables contained cloth). Apparently, the diversified income strategy of the farmers resulted in a high resilience to economic and demographic shocks given that changes in the distribution of the total wealth were limited, especially for the lower classes (P10-25). For the majority of our series, the northwest was also the wealthiest region in absolute terms. The cloth industry in Hainaut continued to grow throughout the fifteenth century, ensuring a reliable form of income during a turbulent period, which helps to explain the observed relative stability in wealth levels.

In the southeast, inequality increased significantly between 1400 and 1440, a trend driven by the accumulation of wealth by the top quartile of the population (P75-100). When comparing distributions of the subregions, the increase of their share in the total wealth was only surpassed by their peers in the northeast. However, unlike in the latter area, this appropriation did not last. Inequality declined again and median values of movables increased during the second half of the fifteenth century. The reversal of the trend is consistent with the profound transformation of the economy from cereal cultivation to animal husbandry. As described earlier, during this process, wealthier farmers managed to lease communal grounds for their private use, depriving smaller peasants from their access to grazing grounds. Unfair competition and scarce labour opportunities gradually forced the impoverished population out of the region. Logically, the southeast became more unequal during the initial phase of conversion, but more equal when the poor emigrated. In this context, declining inequality was not a sign of a resilient society, but rather the opposite.

Lastly, the southwest can be characterized as the most unequal society of Hainaut until the middle of the fifteenth century. In no other region was the discrepancy between the elites (>P90) and the poor (

38 Some communities enforced a collective three-field system, rather than a crop rotation per plot. In this case, small farmers risked to have no harvest during one out of three years. G. Sivéry, ‘Recherches sur l'aménagement des terroirs des plateaux du Hainaut-Cambrésis à la fin du Moyen Age’, Revue du Nord, 51/200 (1969). p.20. 15

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While the institutional and economic factors of the four social agrosystems seem to have a strong explanatory power for trends observed in the fifteenth century, they cannot explain the more universal inequality trends of the second half of the fourteenth century. In spite of regional differences - albeit less pronounced than in the following century - all regions became more equal in the 1380’s-1390’s as the lower half of the population (

4. Conclusion

Employing mortmain records as an alternative source for measuring wealth in the countryside of Hainaut allowed us to test the feasibility of (new) explanations advanced by pioneering scholars on premodern inequality. Most notably, we have tested the relationship with demographic shocks and confronted evolutions of inequality with economic characteristics of the four social agrosystems. While the former did not yield any significant results, the latter appears promising for explaining trends in the fifteenth century. This line of inquiry needs to be pursued in the future, however, as our current approach has remained predominantly descriptive, focusing on the profound transformations of regional economies. Furthermore, the reconstruction of a wage series for Hainaut will be computed in the future to assess the impact of the functional distribution of income, which may have been relevant to the converging trends of the fourteenth century.

39 S. Geens and T. Soens, ‘Water into gold? Wage formation in drainage works in Coastal Flanders between the 13th and the 15th century,’ working paper, EURHO 2017; W. Ryckbosch and S. Geens, ‘Social mobility and the Black Death in Flanders (1349-1400)’, working paper, ESSHC Belfast, 2018. 16

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Appendix

1. The county of Hainaut in the fifteenth century with indication of localities found in the mortmain accounts

Source: J. Roosen, ‘Severity and Selectivity’, p. 50.

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2. The characteristics of the social agrosystems of late medieval Hainaut

Region Characteristics Soil type Commons Lordly power Size of holding Income strategies Northwest North: Loam with Large fields increasingly Grain production - District of Ath good and moderate fragmented Strong Flax cultivation - District of Flobecq drainage of water Limited (local laylords) - Northern part of district of Mons Rise of short-term Proto-industry: linen South: sandy leasehold of small holdings Northeast Large tenant farms Grain production - District of Enghien Loam with good Strong combined with small - District of Braine-le-Comte and moderate Rare (local laylords) freeholdings Seasonal and specialized - Eastern part of district of Soignies drainage of water labour on large farms - Northern part district of Roeulx Southwest Strong (ecclestical) Micro holdings (60%) and Grain production Loam with good - District of Valenciennes large farms (40%) and moderate Rare - District of Quesnoy Weak village Seasonal labour on large drainage of water - District of Bouchain communities Forced crop rotation farms Southeast Transformation from grain - District of Avesnes Limited (ecclesiastical) Combination of large production to livestock - District of Beaumont Brown earth and meadows and farms Numerous breeding - District of Chimay lime Strong village

- District of Maubeuge (East of communities Enclosure movement Few labour opportunities Sambre river)

Sources: see footnote 13

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3. Evolution of the average mortality per locality recorded in the mortmain (n=44.570)

10 9 8 7 6 D10 5 4 Q4 3 2

Average Average mortalityper locality 1 0 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 1440 1460 1480 1500 1520 Year Note: Values above the orange line indicate the top 25% mortality rates, those above the red line the top 10%. Source: Database mortmain (see footnote 17).

4. Index of the population growth in the late medieval county of Hainaut (1365=100)

Region Year of census 1365 1406 1424 1444 1458 1479 1501 1531 Northwest Castellany of Ath 100 68.3 72.6 105.6 112.3 89.3 86.5 93.2 Terre de Flobecq et des Lessines / / / / / / / /

Northeast Bailiwick D’Enghien / / / / / / / / Castellany of Braine-le-comte 100 243.8 259.1 315.3 339.6 280 220 293.2

Central Prévôté de Mons + Bailiwick du Roeulx 100 74.6 66.8 81.9 84 65.1 67.1 77 Prévôté de Binche 100 121.2 92.4 113.8 111.1 112.5 89.7 109.5 Prévôté de Bavai 100 82 71.8 100 104 82.8 95.7 96.7 Prévôté de Maubeuge 100 65.3 51.4 65.6 71.2 56.7 54.2 63.4

Southwest Castellany of Bouchain 100 73.7 61.8 93.7 101.5 63.9 84.4 89.4 Prévôté de Valenciennes 100 60.5 59.9 77.2 79.6 36.1 71.6 82.7 Prévôté du Quesnoy 100 72.1 58.8 91.2 96.5 42.8 66.3 80.7

Southeast Terre d’Avesnes 100 68.7 42.1 63.6 86.5 20.7 52.6 52.9 Prévôté de Beaumont 100 74.8 49.6 64.8 69.2 56.4 51.5 57.7 Principality of Chimay 100 81 38.5 55.7 68.4 87.1 215.2 35.1

Total pop. (in thousands) 27.2 21.3 20.1 27.3 29.2 21.9 22.6 24.8

/ : no data available Source: Arnould, Les dénombrements de foyers.

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5. Wealth distributions per percentiles in the subregions of Hainaut (in % of total wealth)

Years Percentiles 1350-74 1375-99 1400-24 1425-49 1450-74 1475-99 NORTHEAST 0-10 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 10-25 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 25-50 13% 15% 14% 13% 11% 10% 50-75 28% 27% 26% 27% 23% 27% 75-90 22% 23% 22% 25% 23% 26% 90-100 32% 29% 32% 31% 39% 34%

NORTHWEST 0-10 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 10-25 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 25-50 12% 15% 13% 11% 13% 10% 50-75 24% 26% 25% 27% 26% 25% 75-90 23% 22% 24% 25% 24% 27% 90-100 37% 32% 33% 32% 31% 34%

SOUTHEAST 0-10 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 10-25 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 25-50 14% 14% 12% 9% 13% 11% 50-75 25% 26% 24% 23% 27% 27% 75-90 22% 21% 23% 26% 25% 26% 90-100 34% 33% 36% 39% 31% 32%

SOUTHWEST 0-10 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 10-25 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% 25-50 10% 14% 12% 9% 12% 14% 50-75 20% 23% 23% 22% 25% 25% 75-90 22% 23% 25% 26% 25% 26% 90-100 43% 35% 34% 40% 33% 31%

Note : Figures in red indicate a decline in relative wealth compared to previous period, figures in green an increase. Source : Database mortmain (see footonote 17).

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6. Real wages of master carpenters in Blankenberge based on actual employment rates

120

100

80 1500=100) - 60

40 Index (1349 Index 20

0 1260 1280 1300 1320 1340 1360 1380 1400 1420 1440 1460 1480 1500 Year Source : S. Geens and T. Soens, ‘Water into gold? Wage formation in drainage works in Coastal Flanders between the 13th and the 15th century,’ working paper, EURHO 2017

7. Composition of gross household wealth per quintile, Ghent (1350-1400)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Share (%) Share (%) total of wealth quintile of 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Quintile

Houses Land Annuities Chattels Capital

Source: W. Ryckbosch and S. Geens, ‘Social mobility and the Black Death in Flanders (1349-1400)’, working paper, ESSHC Belfast, 2018.