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District Budget Experience in Bangladesh: the Case of Tangail 131 Outlook for the Upcoming Budget FY2015-16 Bangladesh Economy in FY2014-15 Third Interim Review of Macroeconomic Performance Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) i Bangladesh Economy in FY2014-15: Third Interim Review Published in June 2015 by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) House 6/2 (7th & 8th floors), Block - F Kazi Nazrul Islam Road, Lalmatia Housing Estate Dhaka - 1207, Bangladesh Telephone: (+88 02) 9141734, 9141703, 9126402, 9143326 & 8124770 Fax: (+88 02) 8130951 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.cpd.org.bd © Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) 2015 All rights are reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior permission in writing from the publisher. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) was established in 1993 as a civil society initiative to promote an ongoing dialogue between the principal partners in the decision making and implementing process. Over the past 22 years the Centre has emerged as a globally reputed independent think tank with local roots and global reach. A key area of CPD’s activism is to organise dialogues to address developmental policy issues that are critical to national, regional and global interests with a view to seek constructive solutions from major stakeholders. The other key area of CPD activities is to undertake research programmes on current and strategic issues. Major research themes are: macroeconomic performance analysis, poverty and inequality, agriculture, trade, regional cooperation and global integration, infrastructure and enterprise development, climate change and environment, development governance, policies and institutions, and post-2015 international development agenda. CPD maintains an active network with institutions that have similar interests, and regularly participates in various regional and international fora. At present CPD is spearheading two global initiatives. LDC IV Monitor is an independent global partnership for monitoring the outcome of the Fourth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (UN LDC IV). Southern Voice on Post-MDG International Development Goals is a network of 48 think tanks from the developing South which seeks to contribute to the ongoing global discourses on post- MDGs. In recognition of its track record in research, dialogue and policy influencing, CPD has been selected as one of the awardees of the Think Tank Initiative (TTI) through a globally competitive selection process for two consecutive times. CPD’s publications include more than 375 titles including Books, Monographs, Working Papers, Dialogue Reports and Policy Briefs. CPD publications and other relevant information are regularly posted on its website cpd.org.bd The views expressed in this volume are those of the CPD IRBD 2015 Team members and do not necessarily reflect the views of the CPD. ISBN 978-984-33-9261-9 Cover and Graphic Design Avra Bhattacharjee Price: Tk 350 USD 30 Printed at Enrich Printers 41/5 Purana Paltan, Dhaka 1000 C12015_4BAN_MPA ii Outlook for the Upcoming Budget FY2015-16 CPD IRBD 2015 Team Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD and Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD were in overall charge of preparing this report as the Team Leaders. Lead contributions were provided by Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director and Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan, Research Fellow, CPD. Section 1.3 of this voluem was contributed by Dr Quazi Shahabuddin, former Director General, Bangladesh Insti- tute of Development Studies (BIDS). Chapter 3 of the volume is authored by Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan, Research Fellow and Mr Mostafa Amir Sabbih, Research Associate, CPD. Valuable research support was received from Mr Md. Zafar Sadique, Senior Research Associate; Ms Meherun Nesa, Research Associate; Ms Farzana Sehrin, Research Associate; Mr Md. Naimul Gani Saif, Research Associate; Mr Mohammad Afshar Ali, Research Associate; Ms Shahida Pervin, Research Associate; Mr Mostafa Amir Sabbih, Research Associate; Ms Nashia Zaman, Research Associate; Mr Ariful Islam, Research Associate; Ms Refaya Rash- min, Research Associate; Mr Estiaque Bari, Research Associate, Ms Kashfi Rayan, former Research Associate; Ms Rehnuma Jahan Islam, former Research Associate, CPD and Mr Abul Kalam Azad, Lecturer, Department of Eco- nomics, University of Dhaka. Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan was the Coordinator of the CPD IRBD 2015 Team. iii Outlook for the Upcoming Budget FY2015-16 Acknowledgement The CPD IRBD 2015 Team would like to register its sincere gratitude to Professor Rehman Sobhan, Chairman, CPD for his advice and guidance in preparing this report. As part of the CPD IRBD tradition, CPD organised an Expert Group Consultation on 10 May 2015. An annotated outline of Chapter 1 of this volume, prepared by the CPD IRBD 2015 Team, was shared at this meeting with a distinguished group of academics and professionals. The CPD team is grateful to all of those present at the consultation for sharing their views, insights and comments on the draft report. A list of the participants of the meeting is provided below (in alphabetical order): Dr Monzur Hossain Senior Research Fellow Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr A B Mirza Azizul Islam Former Advisor to the Caretaker Government Ministries of Finance and Planning Dr Ahsan Habib Mansur Executive Director Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI) Mr Syed Nasim Manzur President Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) and Managing Director, Apex Footwear Limited Mr Md Aminur Rahman Former Member, Income Tax Policy National Board of Revenue (NBR) Dr Quazi Shahabuddin Former Director General Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr Mohammed Helal Uddin Director, Economic Research Group (ERG) and Associate Professor, Department of Economics University of Dhaka Dr Fahmida Khatun, Research Director, CPD, currently on leave as a Fulbright Fellow at the Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA has provided useful comments and suggestions on several IRBD outputs. The Team gratefully acknowledges the valuable support provided by Ms Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, Director, Dialogue and Communication Division, CPD and her colleagues at the Division in preparing this report. In this connection, the Team would also like to acknowledge the sincere work of Mr Avra Bhattacharjee, Deputy Director, Dialogue and Outreach, CPD and Ms Nazmatun Noor, Deputy Director, Dialogue and Outreach, CPD for their devoted work in giving final shape to the manuscript of this volume. Contribution of Mr Md. Meftaur Rahman, Chief Publication Officer, BIDS to proof-read of Chapter 1 of this volume is also appreciated. Mr Fazle Rabbi Shakil, Publication and Print Associate, CPD and Mr Md. Shaiful Hassan, Programme Associate (DTP) have performed their responsibilities v Bangladesh Economy in FY2014-15: Third Interim Review in preparing the pre-printing format of the volume with high quality. Contribution of the CPD Administration and Finance Division is also highly appreciated. Assistance of Mr A H M Ashrafuzzaman, Deputy Director (System Analyst) and Mr Hamidul Hoque Mondal, Senior Administrative Associate is particularly appreciated. The research assistance provided by Ms Siban Sahana, Research Associate, BIDS (for Section 1.3 of this volume) is gratefully acknowledged. Concerned officials belonging to a number of institutions have extended valuable support to the CPD IRBD Team members. In this connection, the Team would like to register its sincere thanks to Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Bridge Authority (BBA), Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC), Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (BEPZA), Bangladesh Frozen Foods Exporters Association (BFFEA), Bangladesh Garment Manufactures and Exporters Association (BGMEA), Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPC), Bangladesh Plastic Goods Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BPGMEA), Bangladesh Poultry Industries Coordination Committee (BPICC), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), Bangladesh Tourism Board, Board of Investment (BoI), Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET), Deep Sea Port Cell, Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI), Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority (DTCA), Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Shipping, National Board of Revenue (NBR), Paira Port Authority, Planning Commission, Real Estate & Housing Association of Bangladesh (REHAB), Tour Operators’ Association of Bangladesh (TOAB), and The World Bank. The valuable support received from interviews and focus group discussion participants, including local government representatives, government officials, members of civil society, academics and representatives of the business community for Chapter 3 of this volume is also gratefully recognised. The CPD IRBD 2015 Team alone remains responsible for the analyses, interpretations and conclusions presented in this report. vi Outlook for the Upcoming Budget FY2015-16 Contents Acronyms xii Chapter 1 State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2014-15 and the Closure of Sixth Five Year Plan 1 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2 Macroeconomic Management in FY2014-15 and Outlook for FY2015-16 3 1.3 Recent Dynamics of Rice Economy in Bangladesh 25 1.4 Assessment of Progress of Fast Track Projects
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