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Colombia: Presidential Politics and Peace Prospects

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Colombia: Presidential Politics and Peace Prospects COLOMBIA: PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND PEACE PROSPECTS Latin America Report Nº14 -- 16 June 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 1 II. A RISKY RE-ELECTION STRATEGY......................................................................... 2 A. LEGAL UNCERTAINTY AND POLITICAL COSTS ................................................................... 3 B. POLITICAL ALLIANCES ..................................................................................................... 6 1. The Liberal Party .................................................................................................. 6 2. Opposition prospects............................................................................................. 8 III. THE FARC........................................................................................................................... 9 A. THE MILITARY OUTLOOK................................................................................................10 B. WHAT THE FARC STANDS FOR TODAY............................................................................12 C. THE FARC INTERNATIONALLY........................................................................................14 IV. THE AUC............................................................................................................................ 17 A. DEMOBILISATION............................................................................................................19 B. THE JUSTICE AND PEACE LAW.........................................................................................19 C. WHAT IF THE PROCESS COLLAPSES? ................................................................................21 D. POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES ............................................................................................22 V. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS WITH THE INSURGENTS............................................ 24 A. THE FARC AND A HUMANITARIAN EXCHANGE ................................................................24 B. ANOTHER FAILED ATTEMPT AT ELN TALKS ....................................................................27 VI. CONCLUSION.................................................................................................................. 28 APPENDICES A. MAP OF COLOMBIA .........................................................................................................29 B. FARC ATTACKS IN 2005 .................................................................................................30 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .....................................................................31 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN .........................32 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES.................................................................................33 Latin America Report N°14 16 June 2005 COLOMBIA: PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND PEACE PROSPECTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS President Álvaro Uribe's quest for re-election in 2006 political blackmail from the AUC. There is a danger that by amending the constitution so a sitting president can a partial demobilisation could occur in a way that fails to run is a risky endeavour that could weaken democratic dismantle fully the paramilitary structures, clashes with institutions. In the face of unabated armed conflict with strong domestic demands for justice and avoids two insurgent groups, pending demobilisation of international human rights obligations, particularly with thousands of paramilitary fighters, and a flourishing respect to victims' rights to truth, justice and reparation. narcotics industry, Colombia must sustain its military Despite agreeing to a ceasefire in December 2002, the and police defences beyond the forthcoming election. AUC has subsequently killed more than 2,000 people, However, it must also consolidate the rule of law by and its share of the country's recent kidnappings has ending impunity and make strong headway in rural increased compared to that of the ELN and FARC. development and in protecting especially vulnerable Deeply troubling, the paramilitaries are growing groups in order to engage the insurgents on political stronger, politically and economically. grounds. Since early 2005, the FARC has again increased the Over the next four years, Colombia needs to secure a frequency and viciousness of attacks on military as well monopoly of legitimate force across its territory, as civilian targets. It can be expected to do everything in expand substantially its public services in previously its power to undermine Uribe's re-election by abandoned or conflict-affected rural areas, and demonstrating that his "democratic security policy" has construct a better strategy to conduct serious peace not deprived it of the ability to strike widely around the negotiations. Uribe is both the country's strongest country. The FARC also appears to be exercising greater political figure and its most controversial. His real influence over the National Liberation Army (ELN), accomplishments, especially on security, have been which partly explains the government's repeated failures diminished by serious blemishes, including the to move forward on negotiations with that much smaller questionable decisions to seek constitutional insurgent group. amendment to permit his own re-election and to defend a highly contentious bill aimed at Hopes to succeed both in counter-insurgency and demobilising and reintegrating into society the counter-drug efforts, to end the conflict and strengthen extreme right paramilitary, the United Self-Defence democracy must not be tied exclusively to the re- Forces of Colombia (AUC). election of Uribe, regardless of whether or not the constitutional court eventually authorises his candidacy. While maintaining an emphasis on strengthening the In anticipation that the president will be permitted to Colombian state's military and security capacity is run, his administration should seek now to strengthen undoubtedly necessary, the military option by itself is the country's democratic institutions to ensure a fair insufficient to end the armed conflict. Without greater playing field for opposition candidates and political balance to the government's near stand-alone military party reforms. If the court rules against him, Uribe approach toward the largest insurgent organisation, should press for a consensus among major parties to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), continue a strong security policy, though one matched a second Uribe term could once more miss by more attention to rural living conditions and opportunities essential to bringing Colombia closer to negotiations with the insurgents. peace. It is vital for the government to complement its AUC demobilisation is a parallel challenge which overwhelmingly military strategy toward the FARC and hinges on congressional adoption of the still weak draft ELN with a political pillar that addresses longstanding Justice and Peace Law. It presumably would benefit the structural inequities in rural Colombia that, in turn, incumbent but Uribe must be careful not to submit to benefit the insurgencies, the paramilitaries and the Colombia: Presidential Politics and Peace Prospects Crisis Group Latin America Report N°14, 16 June 2005 Page ii drug traffickers. The core elements of that pillar include protections for victims' rights to truth, justice strengthening the rule of law, rural public infrastructure and reparation, and in particular ensures that: and rural economic and social development. A national (a) any reductions of jail terms for demobilised rural strategy can be implemented only where secure combatants are dependent on complete and space has been won but not having the approach truthful confessions, including full disclosure nationally known, funded and ready to go is a of past engagement in illegal armed activity debilitating factor both politically and militarily. and illegal drug trafficking, structures of the As part of the political strategy the government groups in which they were part, the assets should accept the utility of talks to achieve a the groups use, and the location of bodies of prisoners/hostages swap with the FARC as a first step the disappeared; toward peace negotiations; and should press ahead (b) those guilty of crimes against humanity seriously with the resumption of a rapprochement with and other atrocities must serve significant the ELN (that with Mexican facilitation had looked time in jail; promising until recently) with the ultimate aim of demobilising and reinserting its members into society. (c) priority is given to collective demobilisation of units, and leaders' benefits are revoked if The FARC has suffered enough military blows in the their units engage in ceasefire violations or last several years to know it has no chance to achieve new criminal acts; power through armed force. Engaging it politically now (d) adequate time periods (well beyond the while keeping up military pressure is more promising proposed 30 days) are available to investigate than putting all efforts into massive offensives whose the criminal past of those seeking benefits or effectiveness and sustainability are open to serious who refuse to confess and, where question -- especially as the FARC retains the resources appropriate,
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