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PNC Infratech Result Update Rating matrix PNC Infratech (PNCINF) | 152 Rating : Buy Target : | 190 Target Period : 12-18 months Potential Upside : 25% HAM projects to keep execution strong… PNC Infratech’s (PNC) revenues grew significantly by 108.0% YoY to What’s changed? | 558.6 crore in Q2FY19 led by strong execution. However, it was Target Changed from | 215 to | 190 below our expectation of | 603.3 crore EPS FY19E Changed from | 7.4 to | 7.3 EBITDA margin contracted 142 bps YoY to 13.4% on account of EPS FY20E Changed from | 10.4 to | 10.3 higher raw material expenses (68.3% as percentage of revenues in Rating Unchanged Q2FY19 vs. 65.3% in Q2FY18) and in line with our estimate of 13.6% PAT grew robustly by 110.9% YoY to | 35.1 crore in Q2FY19, below Quarterly Performance our expectation of | 59.4 crore mainly on account of lower-than- Q2FY19 Q2FY18 YoY (%) Q1FY19 QoQ (%) Revenue 558.6 268.6 108.0 735.5 -24.0 expected topline growth and higher tax rate of 21.6% in Q2FY19 EBITDA 74.6 39.7 88.0 129.4 -42.4 Strong order book provides revenue visibility… EBITDA (%) 13.4 14.8 -142 bps 17.6 -424 bps PNC’s orderbook was strong at | 6119 crore, providing strong visibility PAT 35.1 16.6 110.9 102.5 -65.8 over the next two to three years. However, this does not include some projects viz. two EPC packages of Purvanchal Expressway worth | 2520 Key Financials crore, Nagpur-Mumbai expressway EPC package worth | 2000 crore and (| crore) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E three HAM projects worth | 3834 crore. Including these projects, PNC’s Net Sales 1,676.0 1,856.6 2,696.9 3,911.3 EBITDA 221.0 318.8 363.4 527.0 orderbook is strong at over | 14000 crore. The company received Net Profit 209.7 251.0 186.6 263.7 appointed date for both Purvanchal Expressway packages on October 10, EPS (|) 8.2 9.8 7.3 10.3 2018, which may start contributing to revenues from Q4FY19E. Appointed date for Nagpur-Mumbai Expressway is expected in December, 2018. Valuation summary Taking cues from such a sharp execution pick-up in FY19E, we expect a (x) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E robust topline growth of 45.1% to | 3911.3 crore in FY18E-20E. P/E 18.6 15.5 20.9 14.8 Healthy bid pipeline ahead... Target P/E 23.2 19.4 26.1 18.5 EV / EBITDA 18.1 12.2 11.9 8.8 NHAI has invited bids for 70 EPC & 30 HAM projects worth | 70,000 crore, P/BV 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 with due date expected in the next two to three months. These bids RoNW (%) 9.7 13.9 9.4 11.9 include 1250 km Delhi-Mumbai Expressway (25 packages) and 1316 km RoCE (%) 13.2 13.7 11.5 14.2 Amritsar-Jamnagar Expressway (22 packages), which are the biggest of these. The major component of these projects is expected on an EPC Stock data basis. PNC expects incremental | 4000 crore of opportunities in H2FY19E Particular Amount (| crore) from above mentioned bid pipeline. Market Capitalization 3,899.4 Equity requirement worth | 832 crore for HAM projects... Total Debt 335.0 Cash 58.0 PNC has seven HAM projects with bid project cost of | 8897 crore in its EV 4,176.4 kitty. While four of these projects are under execution, three are in the 52 week H/L (|) 228 / 123 process of receiving financial closure. These projects have total equity Equity capital 51.3 requirement of | 832 crore of which ~| 50 crore was infused in FY18. The Face value | 2 company will infuse an aggregate of | 220 crore, | 250 crore & | 312 crore in FY19E, FY20E & FY21E, respectively, which will be met through internal Comparative Return Matrix (%) accruals. Also, it has plans to monetise four of its BOT assets, of which, Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Ghaziabad-Aligarh BOT asset is undergoing due diligence while talks on Ashoka Buildcon 6.6 (15.4) (32.0) (15.5) the term sheet are underway. With a lean balance sheet, strong internal Sadbhav Engg (11.4) (14.6) (17.3) (11.2) accruals & inflows from monetisation of some projects, funding this equity IRB Infra 5.3 (27.3) (45.0) (36.8) requirement should not be an issue for PNC. PNC Infratech 8.4 (11.0) (15.3) (20.8) Buoyant orderbook lends comfort for strong execution; maintain BUY… PNC’s robust order book, strong execution capabilities and lean balance Research Analyst sheet with better WC management reinforce our confidence on the future Deepak Purswani, CFA prospects of the company. Also, we believe PNC is well poised to capture deepak,[email protected] huge opportunities ahead. We expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of Harsh Pathak 45.1% in FY18-20E given the significant ramp-up in execution from FY19E [email protected] onwards with receipt of appointed dates for several big-ticket projects. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of | 190. We value its construction business at | 164/share (at 8x FY20E EV/EBITDA) and BOT & HAM projects at | 53/share (traffic growth assumption - 5% per annum). ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance Analysis Particulars Q2FY19 Q2FY19E Q2FY18 YoY (%) Q1FY19 QoQ (%) Comments Total Operating Income 558.6 603.3 268.6 108.0 735.5 -24.0 Topline growth was led by strong execution during the quarter Other Income 6.1 17.9 5.2 16.7 17.9 -66.0 Net Raw material consumed 381.3 412.8 176.5 116.0 500.2 -23.8 Employee benefit expenses 42.2 54.3 23.8 77.6 40.6 4.1 Other Expenses 60.5 54.3 28.6 111.7 65.3 -7.4 EBITDA 74.6 81.9 39.7 88.0 129.4 -42.4 EBITDA Margin(%) 13.4 13.6 14.8 -142 bps 17.6 -424 bps Margin contraction on account of higher raw materials in Q2FY19 Depreciation 20.6 19.3 18.4 11.7 19.3 6.8 Interest 15.3 10.7 7.7 99.5 10.7 43.8 PBT 44.8 69.9 18.8 138.4 117.4 -61.9 Taxes 9.7 10.5 2.1 353.1 14.9 NM PAT 35.1 59.4 16.6 110.9 102.5 -65.8 The growth in bottomline was mainly on account of strong topline growth Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Change in estimates FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Revenue 1,676.0 1,856.6 2,696.9 2,696.9 0.0 3,911.3 3,911.3 0.0 We maintain our estimates EBITDA 221.0 318.8 366.0 363.4 -0.7 534.8 527.0 -1.5 EBITDA Margin (%) 13.1 17.2 13.6 13.5 -13 bps 13.7 13.5 -23 bps PAT 151.9 251.0 185.5 186.6 0.6 266.5 263.7 -1.1 Diluted EPS (|) 8.2 9.8 7.2 7.3 0.6 10.4 10.3 -1.1 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Assumptions Current Earlier EPC FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Comments Order Inflow 1,832 3,972 5,668 7,750 6,150 4,150 6,150 4,150 We have maintained our estimates Order Backlog 3,445 5,400 9,392 15,286 18,738 18,977 18,738 18,977 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Conference Call Highlights: Management guidance & order book: The management has maintained its revenue guidance of 40-50% to | 2800 crore in FY19E and also guided for 35% revenue growth in FY20E. However, it would be reviewing its guidance post Q3FY19E when several big ticket projects would achieve financial closure. The order book of the company is at ~| 6100 crore as of Q2FY19, with an average execution period of two to three years Bidding pipeline: The management said that NHAI has invited bids for 70 EPC projects and 30 HAM projects worth | 70,000 crore, with due date expected in the next two to three months. These bids are inclusive of 1250 km Delhi-Mumbai Expressway and 1316 km Amritsar-Jamnagar Expressway, which are the biggest projects of these 100 projects. The management said PNC will be bidding only for EPC projects considering the tight credit scenario within the construction sector, which may delay financial closure of new HAM projects, impacting execution Appointed date & mobilisation advance: The management expects the appointed date for the Mumbai Nagpur expressway in Q3FY19E. Furthermore, it expects mobilisation advance to the tune of | 600 crore in H2FY19E Equity requirement: PNC has a total equity requirement of | 782 crore over the next three years. The company is planning to infuse | 220 crore in FY19E, | 250 crore in FY20E and the balance in FY21E Capex & debt: The company has guided for a capex of | 40-50 FY20E. Standalone net debt of PNC Infratech is at | 335 crore as of Q2FY19 and is expected to at | 400 crore, | 400-500 crore in FY19E, FY20E, respectively. Standalone D/E for the company is at 0.14 as of Q2FY19 Arbitration award: The company was awarded | 160 crore in the Narela arbitration case. It has received | 46 crore as of Q2FY19 Land acquisition status: The land acquisition status for several projects stands as follow: 98-100% for Dausa-Lalsot, 96% for Chitradurga-Davanagere, 86% for Jhansi-Khajuraho Package 1, 92% for Jhansi-Khajuraho Package 2, 89% for Chakeri-Allahabad, 90% for Aligarh-Kanpur, 80% for Challakere-Hariyur Toll collections: Toll collections in Q2FY19 for various projects are as follows: | 17 crore for Kanpur-Kabrai, | 78 crore in Kanpur- Ayodhya, | 9 crore in Bareilly-Almora and | 51 crore for Ghaziabad-Aligarh project.
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