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Construction and Infrastructure- Mar'21

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Construction and Infrastructure- Mar'21 Construction and Infrastructure- Mar’21 VP Research: Shravan Shah Associate: Maulik Shah/Parth Bhavsar Tel: +91 22 40969749 Tel: +91 22 40969775 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]/[email protected] April 09, 2021 April 09, 2021 2 Monthly Update - Mar 2021 Announcement of New Investments . New investments announced up by 75.4% YoY to Rs1,722 bn (up 60.3% MoM) ACIL in Mar’21, primarily due to increase in Roads/ Power which was partially offset CMP / Target by fall in Others/ Railway. New investments announced in FY21 decreased Rs293/Rs326 13.4% YoY to Rs10,595.1 bn owing to the fall in Others/ Railways which was 3 partially offset by rise in Manufacturing/ Roads. DBL . Manufacturing segment saw a major portion of new investments with 35.5% CMP / Target Rs 575 / Rs 569 share followed by Roads/ Power at 20.6%/ 15.0% in Mar’21 HG Infra . Higher concentration of new investments announced was seen in Odisha with 30.8% share followed by Uttar Pradesh with 14.2% share. CMP / Target Rs 2 83 / Rs 410 . Major Projects announced in Mar’21 includes Integrated Steel Plant (Kendrapada) (Rs500 bn), Ganga Expressway (Ubariya Khurd-Sarso) Project J Kumar (Group-III) (Rs58.1 bn) and Pumped Storage Hydel Power (Shahpur) Project CMP/ Target Rs 1 93 / Rs 267 (Rs118.8 bn) KNR Tenders Published CMP / Target Rs 218 / Rs 240 . Tenders issued increased 82.4% YoY to Rs835.7 bn in Mar’21 led by Roads/ Irrigation. Tenders published in FY21 increased 44.4% YoY to Rs7,981.7 bn, led NCC by rise in Roads/ Mining/ Water. CMP / Target Rs 81 / Rs 108 . Major tenders published are in the Road, Irrigation and Water sectors with 44.7%, 12.8% and 9.4% share respectively. PSP . Uttar Pradesh had the highest share of 32.6% followed by Madhya Pradesh with CMP / Target Rs 4 40 / Rs 5 58 Monthly Update Monthly 9.1% share. Major tenders announced in Mar’21 Development of Ganga Expressway PNC (Group-III) greenfield project (Rs58.1 bn), Sanwer micro lift irrigation scheme at CMP / Target Rs259/Rs358 Indore (Rs29.6 bn) and pumping station at Sunkishala in Telngana (Rs11.7 bn) *CMP as on 8 April 2021 . Tenders live: NHAI Rs399 bn (HAM 61%, EPC 38%), Other Road Rs389 bn (EPC 27%) and Others Rs891 bn. Projects Awarded . Order awards up 226.4% YoY to Rs1,025 bn led by increase in orders mainly in Mining/ Road segment which was partially offset by Power/ Irrigation. Projects awarded in FY21 increased 51.2% YoY to Rs4,784bn on account of Mining/ Road Shravan Shah segment which was partially offset by Power/ Real Estate segment. VP Research +91 22 40969749 . Mining/ Roads/ Manufacturing comprised 38.9%/ 35.4%/ 5.6% respectively of [email protected] total orders awarded in Mar’21. Highest concentration of orders occurred in Odisha in Mar’21 with 36.8% share. Maulik Shah Associate . Siarmal Open cast proiect in Sundergarh district of Odisha (Rs364.2 bn - DBL), +91 22 40969775 Ramanattukara Junction on HAM under Bharatmala Pariyojana in Kerala. [email protected] (Rs23.7 bn – KNR Construction) and the production and supply of Milan-2T Anti- Tank Guided Missiles. (Rs11.9 bn – Bharat Dynamics). Parth Bhavsar Associate . DBL Ltd won major orders comprising 42.3% of total awards. +91 22 40969775 [email protected] April 09, 2021 Valuation Matrix Company Revenue (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) PAT (Rs mn) EBITDA margin (%) Order book (Rs bn) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E ACIL 18.8 18.1 21.0 24.2 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.8 644 583 1,193 1,557 8.1 6.9 10.5 11.5 74.6 77.3 86.3 92.1 DBL 89.8 90.2 99.5 108.9 15.7 14.5 16.1 17.9 4,160 3,060 3,950 5,453 17.5 16.1 16.2 16.4 190.8 281.2 302.2 313.8 HGINFRA 22.0 23.3 28.8 34.9 3.4 3.7 4.4 5.3 1,657 1,811 2,176 2,738 15.6 16.0 15.2 15.2 71.0 77.7 88.9 94.0 JKIL 29.7 25.1 35.2 44.4 4.3 3.4 5.1 6.5 1,836 840 2,034 2,884 14.4 13.6 14.5 14.5 116.6 131.6 136.4 132.0 KNR 22.4 26.0 32.0 40.7 4.9 5.2 5.9 7.5 2,018 2,572 2,906 4,012 21.7 19.9 18.4 18.4 52.3 101.4 109.4 108.7 NCC 82.2 73.7 112.7 124.2 10.3 9.1 13.9 15.4 2,616 2,602 5,693 6,597 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 250.1 381.2 418.5 414.4 PSP 15.0 13.1 15.9 17.8 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.3 1,293 944 1,359 1,544 12.7 11.2 13.0 13.0 30.7 31.7 50.8 57.9 PNC 48.8 49.3 64.2 75.2 7.6 6.7 9.3 10.4 3,514 3,569 5,388 6,093 15.7 13.5 14.4 13.8 86.3 173.2 208.9 213.7 Company CMP* TP Mcap EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs bn) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E ACIL 293 326 19.6 11.5 14.0 7.7 6.0 30.4 33.6 16.4 12.6 12.4 11.2 17.0 18.2 8.4 7.0 13.0 14.8 DBL 575 569 78.6 6.9 7.7 6.7 6.1 18.9 25.7 19.9 14.4 15.3 12.6 13.1 14.5 12.6 8.2 9.7 12.0 HGINFRA 283 410 18.5 6.1 5.5 4.9 4.1 11.1 10.2 8.5 6.7 19.7 19.2 19.5 19.5 22.4 19.9 19.7 20.3 JKIL 193 267 14.6 3.8 4.6 3.2 2.6 7.9 17.4 7.2 5.1 11.4 7.3 11.3 13.4 10.5 4.5 10.2 12.9 KNR 218 240 61.4 13.0 11.6 9.8 7.7 30.4 23.9 21.1 15.3 17.8 18.2 17.1 19.5 13.4 14.8 14.5 17.2 NCC 81 108 48.5 6.3 6.8 4.9 4.3 18.8 18.9 8.7 7.5 14.0 10.9 14.3 14.0 5.3 5.0 10.1 10.5 PSP 440 558 15.8 7.7 9.5 6.3 5.2 12.3 16.8 11.7 10.3 31.3 19.2 23.1 21.7 31.2 19.1 23.0 21.5 PNC 259 358 66.4 8.1 9.8 7.4 6.7 18.9 18.6 12.3 10.9 23.7 15.0 18.7 17.8 15.8 13.4 17.1 16.4 Sources: Company, DART *CMP as on 8 Apr 2021 April 09, 2021 4 Announcement of New Investments . New investments announced up by 75.4% YoY to Rs1,722 bn (up 60.3% MoM) in Mar’21, primarily due to increase in Roads/ Power by 295%/1351.5% YoY to Rs354.8 bn/ Rs258.7 which was partially offset by fall in Others/ Railway by 19.4% / 45.5% YoY to Rs92.2 bn/ Rs27 bn. New investments announced in FY21 decreased 13.4% YoY to Rs10,595.1 bn owing to the fall in Others/ Railways by 59.4%/ 87.3% YoY to Rs1,142.9 bn/ Rs130.6 bn which was partially offset by rise in Manufacturing/ Roads by 46.4%/63.5% YoY to Rs2,601.6 bn/ Rs2,074.5bn. Manufacturing accounted for highest share at 35.5% in total value in Mar’21. Integrated Steel Plant (Kendrapada) (Rs500 bn) is the major project announced. Roads comprised 20.6% of the total value in Mar’21. Ganga Expressway (Ubariya Khurd-Sarso) Project (Group-III) (Rs58.1 bn) is the major project announced. Power comprised 15.0% of the total value in Mar’21. Pumped Storage Hydel Power (Shahpur) Project (Rs118.8 bn) is the major project announced. Higher concentration of new investments announced was seen in Odisha with 30.8% share followed by Uttar Pradesh with 14.2% share. New Investments announced increased 75.4% YoY to Rs1,722 bn in Mar’21 New Investments (Rs bn) Sectors Mar-20 Mar-21 MoM (%) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Roads 90 355 301.3 3,410 3,311 5,254 3,183 1,269 2,074 Growth YoY % 295.0 69.0 -2.9 58.7 (39.4) (60.1) 63.5 Community 24 16 (54.8) 483 463 422 503 413 355 Growth YoY % (34.1) 58.1 (4.1) (8.8) 19.0 (17.9) (13.9) Irrigation 3 129 159.1 548 344 690 479 258 747 Growth YoY % 4418.9 11.4 (37.1) 100.2 (30.6) (46.0) 189.0 Water 227 134 616.2 336 446 834 734 1,084 614 Growth YoY % (41.1) (54.2) 32.8 86.9 (12.0) 47.8 (43.4) Railway 49 27 (40.1) 1,801 3,530 1,713 2,464 1,025 131 Growth YoY % (45.5) (33.8) 95.9 (51.5) 43.8 (58.4) (87.3) Power Distr.
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