Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (Year 1) - Annex 4: Risk Assessment for Lampropeltis Getula
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Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 1) - Annex 4: Risk assessment for Lampropeltis getula Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of risk assessments to tackle priority species and enhance prevention Contract No 07.0202/2016/740982/ETU/ENV.D2 Final Report Annex 4: Risk Assessment for Lampropeltis getula (Linnaeus, 1766) November 2017 1 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 1) - Annex 4: Risk assessment for Lampropeltis getula Risk assessment template developed under the "Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of risk assessments to tackle priority species and enhance prevention" Contract No 07.0202/2016/740982/ETU/ENV.D2 Based on the Risk Assessment Scheme developed by the GB Non-Native Species Secretariat (GB Non-Native Risk Assessment - GBNNRA) Name of organism: Common kingsnake Lampropeltis getula (Linnaeus, 1766) Author(s) of the assessment: ● Yasmine Verzelen, Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium ● Tim Adriaens, Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Brussels, Belgium ● Riccardo Scalera, IUCN SSC Invasive Species Specialist Group, Rome, Italy ● Niall Moore, GB Non-Native Species Secretariat, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), York, Great Britain ● Wolfgang Rabitsch, Umweltbundesamt, Vienna, Austria ● Dan Chapman, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Wallingford, Great Britain ● Peter Robertson, Newcastle University, Newcastle, Great Britain Risk Assessment Area: The geographical coverage of the risk assessment is the territory of the European Union (excluding the outermost regions) Peer review 1: Olaf Booy, GB Non-Native Species Secretariat, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), York, Great Britain Peer review 2: Ramón Gallo Barneto, Área de Medio Ambiente e Infraestructuras. GesPlan, S.A., Gran Canaria, Spain Peer review 3: Iolanda Rocha Da Silva, CIBIO, Portugal (impact section) Peer review 4: Prof. Frank Pasmans, Ghent University, Belgium (pathogens section) Acknowledgements: Brian Hubbs for information on kingsnake taxonomy and ecology; Wouter Beukema (Ghent University) for advice on the species distribution model; Jeroen Speybroeck (INBO) for information on species identification; Dr. Robert Fisher for information on species distribution, taxonomy and the Gran Canaria invasion. This risk assessment has been peer-reviewed by two independent experts and discussed during a joint expert workshop. Specific sections have been mini- reviewed by two other reviewers. Details on the review and how comments were addressed are available in the final report of the study. 1st version: 17/11/2017 Positive opinion by the Scientific Forum: 20/11/2019 November 2017 2 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 1) - Annex 4: Risk assessment for Lampropeltis getula Contents RISK SUMMARIES ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Distribution Summary : ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Member States .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 EU biogeographical regions ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 SECTION A – Organism Information and Screening ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 SECTION B – Detailed assessment........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20 PROBABILITY OF INTRODUCTION and ENTRY ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 20 PROBABILITY OF ESTABLISHMENT .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 PROBABILITY OF SPREAD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42 MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 48 ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS - CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 59 ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS - RESEARCH .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59 REFERENCES: ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60 ANNEX I - Scoring of Likelihoods of Events ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 66 ANNEX II - Scoring of Magnitude of Impacts ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67 ANNEX III - Scoring of Confidence Levels .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69 ANNEX IV – Species Distribution Model ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 70 November 2017 3 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 1) - Annex 4: Risk assessment for Lampropeltis getula RISK SUMMARIES RESPONSE CONFIDENCE COMMENT Summarise Entry likely high Lampropeltis getula is a sporadically introduced, popular pet species. Casual records in several EU member states illustrate the species is widely kept as a pet in the EU and that escapes occur sporadically. Common kingsnake is especially popular among beginner pet amateurs as they generally require little specific care, have a low purchase price and are easy to handle. Summarise Establishment likely high The species is already established in Macaronesia (Canary Islands, which is considered an Outermost Region). Similar climatic conditions occur in the EU in parts of Iberia. Excluding Outermost Regions, under current climate, species distribution modelling predicts establishment in the EU is possible through southern Iberia and Greece as well as in small areas of Italy. L. getula could establish in several EU member states. Member states potentially suitable for establishment include Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Croatia, Malta and Cyprus. In terms of Biogeographical Regions the Mediterranean and Steppic bioregions are suitable for establishment. Summarise Spread slowly low Lampropeltis species generally have small home ranges and small spatial movement patterns which is one of the reasons why they easily persist in fragmented landscapes. They are generally low perceptive range species i.e. do not easily cross dispersal barriers to disperse into an unsuitable matrix. The detection threshold of snakes is known to be low, and this is expected to be the case for a fossorial species like L. getula as well. Human assistance may however easily complement natural spread. Snakes can be introduced or released deliberately or may be accidentally transported on ornamental trees. On the Canary islands, the species has spread to at least three disparate locations on Gran Canaria and to other islands November 2017 4 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 1) - Annex 4: Risk assessment for Lampropeltis getula despite concerted management action (pers. comm. Miguel Ángel Cabrera). A newly established population could already be quite large before it reaches a detection threshold, given the secretive nature of L. getula and the fact that it is a fossorial (underground) species. Summarise Impact major