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Is the Market of the Besieged Enclave Conducive to a Large CBT Intervention?

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Is the Market of the Besieged Enclave Conducive to a Large CBT Intervention? Market Assessment in the Gaza Strip Is the market of the besieged enclave conducive to a large CBT intervention? Authors: Lucia Latino and Tobias Flämig Published in June 2017 - Data collected in November 2016 / January 2017 For additional information, please contact: WFP Jerusalem Peter Holtsberg, Head of Programme [email protected] Salah Lahham, VAM Officer [email protected] WFP Headquarters Tobias Flämig, Head of Economic and Market Analysis Unit [email protected] Lucia Latino, Economist [email protected] All rights reserved. The reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial uses is authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders, provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Director, Communications Division, e-mail: [email protected] © WFP 2017 World Food Programme Via Cesare Giulio Viola, 68/70 - 00148 Rome - Italy http://vam.wfp.org; [email protected] MARKET ASSESSMENT IN THE GAZA STRIP Contents List of Figures .................................................................................................................................................................. I List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................................. II List of Boxes ................................................................................................................................................................... II Appendices .................................................................................................................................................................... II Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................................... III Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................................... IV Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... V 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... - 1 - 2. The Gazan economy ......................................................................................................................................... - 3 - 2.1. A wheezing economy .............................................................................................................................. - 3 - 2.2. A dismantled productive sector .............................................................................................................. - 5 - 3. Trade dependency ............................................................................................................................................ - 8 - 3.1. Humanitarian versus commercial imports ............................................................................................ - 11 - 3.2. Food imports and needs ....................................................................................................................... - 13 - 4. Supply chain route .......................................................................................................................................... - 14 - 4.1. From and through Israel to the Gaza Strip ............................................................................................ - 14 - 4.2. From the Gazan border to the household table ................................................................................... - 16 - 5. Deflationary pressure and volatility ............................................................................................................... - 19 - 6. The role of the local market for the humanitarian sector .............................................................................. - 23 - 7. Threats and opportunities for a large-scale CBT intervention in Gaza ........................................................... - 24 - 8. Concluding remarks ........................................................................................................................................ - 28 - Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................. - 29 - Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................ - 45 - List of Figures Figure 1 - Real GDP per capita in Palestinian Territories, 1999–2016 ...................................................................... - 3 - Figure 2 - Labour force status in the Gaza Strip, 2000-2016 .................................................................................... - 4 - Figure 3 - Annual change of main economic activities (value added in 2004 prices) ............................................... - 4 - Figure 4 - GDP composition (valued added in 2004 prices) ...................................................................................... - 5 - Figure 5 - Value of agricultural production (US$ million), 2007–2015 ..................................................................... - 6 - Figure 6 - Number of trucks entering Gaza by crossing points each month, 2006–2016 ......................................... - 9 - Figure 7 - Number of trucks exiting Gaza by crossing points each month, 2006–2016 ............................................ - 9 - Figure 8 - Number of humanitarian and commercial trucks entering Gaza, 2007–2016 ....................................... - 11 - Figure 9 - Commercial and humanitarian trucks with main commodities .............................................................. - 11 - I | P a g e Is the market of the besieged enclave conducive to a large CBT intervention? Figure 10 - Number of food trucks entering Gaza through Kerem .................................................................. - 12 - Figure 11 - Yearly quantities of selected food commodities entering the Gaza Strip, 2010–2016 ......................... - 13 - Figure 12 - Deficit/surplus of basic food commodities in the Gaza Strip in 2015 ................................................... - 13 - Figure 13 - Food supply chain map ......................................................................................................................... - 14 - Figure 14 - Daily number of trucks entering Kerem Shalom, 2007–2016 ............................................................... - 16 - Figure 15 - Share of shops with supply constraints in 2014, by governorate and constraint ................................. - 18 - Figure 16 - Inflation and food inflation in Israel and the Palestinian territories, 2010–2016 ................................. - 19 - Figure 17 - Real prices of selected foods by area, 2010–2016 ................................................................................ - 22 - List of Tables Table 1 - Main produce in the Gaza Strip, 2005–2015.............................................................................................. - 6 - Table 2 - Price and volatility of selected foods in the Gaza Strip and West Bank (period average, 2010–2016) ... - 21 - List of Boxes Box 1 - Trade in times of conflict ............................................................................................................................ - 12 - Box 2 - Getting food supplies in times of war ......................................................................................................... - 18 - Box 3 - The wheezing economy may hold back the CBT multiplier effect ............................................................... - 27 - Appendices Appendix I - Nominal price of selected foods by area, 2010–2016 ......................................................................... - 29 - Appendix II - Prices of commercial products vs. resold food aid ............................................................................. - 30 - Appendix III - PCBS methodology for the 2016 trader survey in the Gaza Strip ...................................................... - 31 - Appendix IV - PCBS Trader Survey Questionnaire ................................................................................................... - 36 - II | P a g e MARKET ASSESSMENT IN THE GAZA STRIP Acronyms ARAs Access Restricted Areas CBS Central Bureau of Statistic (Israel) CBT Cash-Based Transfers CPI Consumer Price Index DNA Detailed Needs Assessment and Recovery Framework for Gaza ECHO European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations EMOP Emergency Operation FCS Food Consumption Score GDP Gross Domestic Product GRM Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism NIS Israeli Shekel PA Palestinian Authority PMA Palestinian Monetary Authority PCBS Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. UN OCHA oPt United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNRWA United Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near
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