A System in Transition? Whitebark Pine Conditions Oregon and Washington
Kristen L. Chadwick Forest Health Protection Westside Service Center PIAL Habitat - PNW
• ~80% on National Forest System lands ~60% in designated wilderness areas • Key Habitat in National Parks: – Olympic, – North Cascades, – Mount Rainer, and – Crater Lake • BLM OR and WA • WDNR Habitat • Generally 5,400’- 9,200’ • Exposed ridges • Cool and windy, short and droughty summers • Immature, poorly developed soils
Drake Peak Fremont NF Other Species
• Mountain Hemlock • Subalpine fir • Lodgepole pine • Incidentals: – Ponderosa pine – Other true firs – Douglas-fir – Sage brush on dry sites – Aspen in the Warners
Whitebark Pine Ecology
• Stress tolerant • Maintains snow pack and regulates runoff • Pioneer species • Stabilizes soils • Long-lived (1,000+ yrs) • Highly nutritious seeds • Keystone species
Rangewide Health Assessment
• PIAL is declining throughout its range • Due to: – White pine blister rust – Bark beetle outbreaks – Fire – Climate change
Pacific Northwest Restoration Strategy
Cathedral Peak Oka-Wen
Freeezeout Ridge Okanogan-Wen Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) •Native insect on Pine hosts •Endemic level, remove weakened trees in localized areas •Favorable conditions, mountain pine beetle populations can build to epidemic levels and create stand-replacing events Mountain Pine Beetle •Epidemics driven by availability of suitable host •Probability of MPB attack in PIAL is related to: –Larger-diameter trees –Basal area per acre –Trees per acre –Number of stems in a tree cluster (Perkins and Roberts 2003) –Adjacency of susceptible PICO stands with mortality occurring
Mountain Pine Beetle
• High levels of MPB-caused mortality are not unprecedented – Similar to conditions in the 1930s that created the high-elevation “ghost forests” • Warmer than normal temperatures increase susceptibility of high-elevation pines – Drought stress • Mild winters, warmer & drier summers, + highly susceptible stands create ideal conditions for MPB
Cumulative mortality of PIAL attributed to mountain pine beetle 2001-2010 Cumulative Mortality of PIAL attributed to mountain pine beetle 2001-2010 Acres with Whitebark Pine Mortality Attributed to Mountain Pine Beetle 45,000 Washington Oregon 40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 MPB PIAL and PICO 2013 MPB PIAL and PICO 2013 Estimated PIAL Killed by MPB 6000
5000
4000
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2000
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0 2013 Acres Affected MPB in PIAL 1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
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0
Other
Rainier
BLM OR BLM
Winema
Malheur
Fremont
Wallowa
Whitman
Okanogan
Deschutes
Olympic NF Olympic
Wenatchee
Olympic NP Olympic
Snoqualmie
RogueRiver
Mount Hood Mount
Crater Lake NP Lake Crater
Gifford Pinchot Gifford Lake Chelan NRA Chelan Lake Climate Change • Warwell et al. (2006) – Random Forests multiple regression tree analysis – 35 temperature and precipitation variables – 119,000 plot locations PIAL presence/absence (mainly FIA) – Final model used 9 variables and had an error of classification of 2.47% – Model then used to predict responses to global warming • Using Hadley and Canadian General Circulation Models (1% /year increase in greenhouse gases)
Warwell, M.V.; Rehfeldt, G.E., Crookston, N.L. 2006 Warwell, M.V.; Rehfeldt, G.E., Crookston, N.L. 2006 Present 2030 Warwell, M.V.; Rehfeldt, G.E.; Crookston, N.L. 2006
2060 2090 Climate Change & Forest Disturbances
• Generally predicted to be warmer, but precipitation varies • Fire - Earlier snowmelt, higher summer temperatures, longer fire seasons – Potential for increased wildfire activity • Trees likely to be stressed; stressed trees more susceptible to insects and diseases • Mountain Pine Beetle – Temperature extremes • White Pine Blister Rust • May expand distribution and impacts • Impacts to neighboring tree species and increasing or decreasing potential habitat • New Invasives
White Pine Blister Rust • Introduced pathogen 1925 (Cronartium ribicola) – Native to Eurasia 1953 – Imported early 1900s
• Complex life cycle 2003 – Obligate parasite – 5 spore stages – Requires 2 hosts to complete life cycle 2010 • 5-needled pines • gooseberries/currants (Ribes) • Pedicularis & Castilleja
Causes top-kill
Girdles branches
Kills young trees White Pine Blister Rust • Top-kill of large trees = reduced cone production • Small trees killed quickly • Has broad ecological impacts – Changes stand trajectories towards different species WPBR in Whitebark Pine
WPBR incidence varies by area. Highest in the cool northern Rocky Mountains and least in the warm dry Great Basin (Schwandt et al. 2010) WPBR Mount Hood • 1936 surveys near Timberline – 5.9, 3.9, and 6.2 average cankers/tree on each of 3 sites. • 1941 the same area had 5046 cankers of recent origin found on 614 trees = 8.2 cankers/tree on average • Ribes spp occurred over a mile away and down slope. (Bedwell and Childs 1943) • General observation this is higher than we currently see, although plot data is not counting cankers
White Pine Blister Rust in PIAL
• NE WA (23-44%, 41%) • NE OR (0-100%, 64%) • Oly Mts (4-49%, 19%) • W. Cascades (0-100%, 32%) • E. Cascades (0-90%, 32%) • SW OR (0-100%, 52%) • Warner Mtns. (0%) (Schwandt 2006, Ward et al. 2006, Goheen et al. 2002) Permanent PIAL plots in OR and WA Permanent Plots in R6 To Date:
• 300+ • Areas missing: – OLY NF – Winema NF – NPS system lands Objectives Monitor stand changes and trends of whitebark ecology in the face of • Whitepine blister rust • Mountain pine beetle • Climate change • Conifer encroachment Objectives
Install permanent plots and collect baseline data in Region 6 Monitor natural regeneration establishment and survival Determine current stand structure of whitebark pine systems
Methods
• Modified from methodology developed by the Whitebark Pine Ecosystem Foundation.
• Belt transect plots of 30’ X 150’
• Stand exam damage codes for non- WPBR and BWA damages
• All trees monitored
Differences Across the Region
Fremont NF Aberts Rim Bald Butte
Crane Mountain NE Oregon
Mount Hood Blister Rust Incidence
Blister Rust Incidence in trees taller than 4.5 ft.: • Oregon Cascades: – Avg. 25% (range 0 -86%) – Sites near Cascade crest had a higher incidence of blister rust infection levels with Ollalie Butte having the highest incidence at 86%. – 9 transects on the Deschutes were blister rust free. • Malheur avg. 55% (range 35-71%) • Okanogan-Wenatchee avg 56% (range 33 to 71%)
Regeneration levels
Regeneration: regeneration levels were fairly high across all regional plots, with an average of 229 trees per acre (0-1500/ac). Low levels of blister rust infections overall, with an average of 7.1% (0- 56%).
Maiden Peak Survey Summary Regeneration: Summary Statistics for Whitebark pine Regeneration trees < 4.5 ft. tall WBP WBP # of Infected % regen TPA <20"tall/ >20" tall Transects regen/ac infected (regen) ac /ac Total 77 AVG 137.97 97.12 14.00 7.1 228.99 MAX 909.92 629.2 135.52 56.2 1539.12 MIN 0 0 0 0 0 Deschutes NF & 60 AVG 160.72 100.39 10.76 4.7 252.41 Three Sisters MAX 909.92 629.2 106.48 33.3 1539.12 Wilderness MIN 0 0 0 0 0 Malheur NF 11 AVG 81.84 109.12 36.08 19.7 190.96 MAX 367.84 242 135.52 56.2 551.76 MIN 0 29.04 0 0 48.4 Colville & 6 AVG 20.97 43.56 4.84 7.1 64.53 Okanagan- MAX 58.08 67.76 9.68 14.2 106.48 Wenatchee NF MIN 0 9.68 0 0 29.04 Stand Densities
• Central Oregon: On average 646 tpa trees > 4.5’ in ht. of both live and dead standing
– Range of 174.24 to 2041.62 tpa • WBP-- avg.56% (range 9.4%-100%) • Lodgepole pine—20.7% (0-65%) • Other—22.6 (0-82%) – Live 516 range of 135 to 1972 tpa – Dead 128 range of 10 to 406 tpa
Survey Summary
Whitebark pine density: • Whitebark pine densities were highly variable (range 0-1442/ac) across all plots with an average of 350 whitebark/ac > 4.5’ in height
• For instance the plots on Mt. Bachelor averaged 1035 whitebark pine/ac of trees > 4.5’ tall with 20% mortality. Stands were more like stringers of whitebark surrounded by loose scree. Survey Summary
Mortality (plots installed 2008-2010): Region wide there was 19% mortality (range of 0 to 77%) of whitebark pine > 4.5’ in height caused by either blister rust or mountain pine beetle. The story of the Deschutes Oregon Cascades Characteristics
• Unique pumice zone with little vegetation • Ranged from pure whitebark stands to being interspersed with mountain hemlock, subalpine fir and lodgepole pine.
Ollalie Butte 86% (not on map)
Black Butte 7 and 43%
3-creeks 7% 3 sisters wilderness 0- Tam MacArthur Rim 0 and 70% avg. 28% 60%
Tumalo Mtn. 17-30% Bachelor 2-19% Cultus 25% NVNM 0-18% Sheridan 32% avg. 5%
Odell Butte 20% Live Trees-Spieces Distribution (%) 100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30 %MH 20 %SF %LP 10 %WB
0
Red Hill
370 Road370 Road1 2 Ball ButteBall Butte1 2 Cultus Mtn 1 OllaliePilpil Butte Butte 1 Black BlackButte Butte1 2 Kwohl Butte 1 Odell Butte 1 TumaloTumalo MtnTumalo 1 Mtn 2 Mtn 3 Belknap Crater BlackCopper Crater Butte1 1 Maiden Peak 1 Sheridan Mtn 1 BachelorBachelor ButteBachelor Butte1Bachelor Butte2 Butte3 4 TamMcArtherTamMcArther 3 4
Little 3Little Creeks 3 Creeks Lake 1Lake 2 Newberry Crater East 3 NewberryNewberry Crater CraterNewberry West NewberrySouth 1 CraterNewberry 2 Crater South Crater North4 North5 6 PIAL 2000 TPA Live and Dead 1800 TPADeadALL
1600 TPALiveall 1400
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0
Red Hill Red
Ball Butte 1 Butte Ball 2 Butte Ball
370 Road 1 Road 370 2 Road 370
Ollalie Butte Ollalie
Pilpil Butte 1 Butte Pilpil
Cultus Mtn 1 Mtn Cultus
Odell Butte 1 Butte Odell
Black Butte 1 Butte Black 2 Butte Black
Kwohl Butte 1 Butte Kwohl 1 Mtn Tumalo 2 Mtn Tumalo 3 Mtn Tumalo
Black Crater Black 1
Maiden Peak 1 Peak Maiden
Belknap Crater Belknap
Copper Butte 1 Butte Copper
Sheridan Mtn 1 Mtn Sheridan
TamMcArther 3 TamMcArther 4 TamMcArther
Bachelor Butte 1 Butte Bachelor 2 Butte Bachelor 3 Butte Bachelor 4 Butte Bachelor
Little 3 Creeks 3 Lake 1 Little Creeks 3 Lake 2 Little
Newberry3 Crater East
Newberry1 Crater West
NewberryCrater 5 North NewberryCrater 6 North
Newberry Crater South 2 NewberryCrater South 4 NewberryCrater South TPA TPA >4.5' in height Key Findings
• Overall whitebark distribution and density in remote areas was higher than expected • There was a much higher whitebark pine regeneration component than expected. – With generally low levels of blister rust infection.
Ollalie Butte WSIR Other damaging agents • Mistletoe was a serious damaging agent in 3 plots located on drier sites but did not co-occur with blister rust.
• Armillaria root disease has been found on some plots actively killing PIAL of all sizes
• Laminated root rot provided openings in mountain hemlock stands for PIAL regen.
Other damaging agents • Balsam wooly adelgid was present where sub- alpine fir was co- occurring with whitebark pine. On some sites (Black Crater) sub-alpine fir had higher damage and mortality from BWA with no regeneration present.
Key Findings and General Observations for Central Oregon • High elevation stands in central Oregon lacked evidence of fire history disturbance. • These stands also had little to no fine fuels to carry a fire.
Where to go from here Data collections and continuous plot installation • Region wide protocol has been refinded and updated
• Continue plot establishment in under represented areas
• Analyze Fremont NF data and dendro study…Tells the story of regeneration after mountain pine beetle in the absence of WPBR
SubalpineSubalpine fir fir declining declining from from balsam balsam woolly woolly adelgidadelgid in in whitebark whitebark pine pine habitat habitat Our database:
• Finish database development so reports are easily pulled
• Fold in surveys done in early 2000s
• Analyze the data to look at stand structures, disturbance dynamics, and regeneration levels.
Where to go from here • Integrate landscape climate models for both BWA and WPBR. Future
Whitebark pine faces many threats but: – active restoration efforts – Continue to work on developing resistant stock – protective measures for mountain pine beetle • Verbenone • carbaryl – some genetic plasticity could be an advantage with climate change – wide distribution provides broad basis for cooperation
Questions?
Acknowledgements: Data for 2008-2010 plots provided by Lia Spiegel, Connie Mehmel, and Chris Jensen Slides and pictures provided by John Schwandt, Sandy Kegley, Blakey Lockman, Connie Mehmel, and Matt Horning.