A System in Transition? Whitebark Pine Conditions Oregon and Washington Kristen L. Chadwick Forest Health Protection Westside Service Center PIAL Habitat - PNW • ~80% on National Forest System lands ~60% in designated wilderness areas • Key Habitat in National Parks: – Olympic, – North Cascades, – Mount Rainer, and – Crater Lake • BLM OR and WA • WDNR Habitat • Generally 5,400’- 9,200’ • Exposed ridges • Cool and windy, short and droughty summers • Immature, poorly developed soils Drake Peak Fremont NF Other Species • Mountain Hemlock • Subalpine fir • Lodgepole pine • Incidentals: – Ponderosa pine – Other true firs – Douglas-fir – Sage brush on dry sites – Aspen in the Warners Whitebark Pine Ecology • Stress tolerant • Maintains snow pack and regulates runoff • Pioneer species • Stabilizes soils • Long-lived (1,000+ yrs) • Highly nutritious seeds • Keystone species Rangewide Health Assessment • PIAL is declining throughout its range • Due to: – White pine blister rust – Bark beetle outbreaks – Fire – Climate change Pacific Northwest Restoration Strategy Cathedral Peak Oka-Wen Freeezeout Ridge Okanogan-Wen Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) •Native insect on Pine hosts •Endemic level, remove weakened trees in localized areas •Favorable conditions, mountain pine beetle populations can build to epidemic levels and create stand-replacing events Mountain Pine Beetle •Epidemics driven by availability of suitable host •Probability of MPB attack in PIAL is related to: –Larger-diameter trees –Basal area per acre –Trees per acre –Number of stems in a tree cluster (Perkins and Roberts 2003) –Adjacency of susceptible PICO stands with mortality occurring Mountain Pine Beetle • High levels of MPB-caused mortality are not unprecedented – Similar to conditions in the 1930s that created the high-elevation “ghost forests” • Warmer than normal temperatures increase susceptibility of high-elevation pines – Drought stress • Mild winters, warmer & drier summers, + highly susceptible stands create ideal conditions for MPB Cumulative mortality of PIAL attributed to mountain pine beetle 2001-2010 Cumulative Mortality of PIAL attributed to mountain pine beetle 2001-2010 Acres with Whitebark Pine Mortality Attributed to Mountain Pine Beetle 45,000 Washington Oregon 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 MPB PIAL and PICO 2013 MPB PIAL and PICO 2013 Estimated PIAL Killed by MPB 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 1200 1400 1600 200 400 600 800 0 Okanogan Lake Chelan NRA Wenatchee 2013 Acres Snoqualmie Gifford Pinchot Mount Hood Wallowa MPB in PIAL Affected Whitman BLM OR Deschutes Malheur Winema Crater Lake NP Rogue River Fremont Olympic NP Olympic NF Rainier Other Climate Change • Warwell et al. (2006) – Random Forests multiple regression tree analysis – 35 temperature and precipitation variables – 119,000 plot locations PIAL presence/absence (mainly FIA) – Final model used 9 variables and had an error of classification of 2.47% – Model then used to predict responses to global warming • Using Hadley and Canadian General Circulation Models (1% /year increase in greenhouse gases) Warwell, M.V.; Rehfeldt, G.E., Crookston, N.L. 2006 Warwell, M.V.; Rehfeldt, G.E., Crookston, N.L. 2006 Present 2030 Warwell, M.V.; Rehfeldt, G.E.; Crookston, N.L. 2006 2060 2090 Climate Change & Forest Disturbances • Generally predicted to be warmer, but precipitation varies • Fire - Earlier snowmelt, higher summer temperatures, longer fire seasons – Potential for increased wildfire activity • Trees likely to be stressed; stressed trees more susceptible to insects and diseases • Mountain Pine Beetle – Temperature extremes • White Pine Blister Rust • May expand distribution and impacts • Impacts to neighboring tree species and increasing or decreasing potential habitat • New Invasives White Pine Blister Rust • Introduced pathogen 1925 (Cronartium ribicola) – Native to Eurasia 1953 – Imported early 1900s • Complex life cycle 2003 – Obligate parasite – 5 spore stages – Requires 2 hosts to complete life cycle 2010 • 5-needled pines • gooseberries/currants (Ribes) • Pedicularis & Castilleja Causes top-kill Girdles branches Kills young trees White Pine Blister Rust • Top-kill of large trees = reduced cone production • Small trees killed quickly • Has broad ecological impacts – Changes stand trajectories towards different species WPBR in Whitebark Pine WPBR incidence varies by area. Highest in the cool northern Rocky Mountains and least in the warm dry Great Basin (Schwandt et al. 2010) WPBR Mount Hood • 1936 surveys near Timberline – 5.9, 3.9, and 6.2 average cankers/tree on each of 3 sites. • 1941 the same area had 5046 cankers of recent origin found on 614 trees = 8.2 cankers/tree on average • Ribes spp occurred over a mile away and down slope. (Bedwell and Childs 1943) • General observation this is higher than we currently see, although plot data is not counting cankers White Pine Blister Rust in PIAL • NE WA (23-44%, 41%) • NE OR (0-100%, 64%) • Oly Mts (4-49%, 19%) • W. Cascades (0-100%, 32%) • E. Cascades (0-90%, 32%) • SW OR (0-100%, 52%) • Warner Mtns. (0%) (Schwandt 2006, Ward et al. 2006, Goheen et al. 2002) Permanent PIAL plots in OR and WA Permanent Plots in R6 To Date: • 300+ • Areas missing: – OLY NF – Winema NF – NPS system lands Objectives Monitor stand changes and trends of whitebark ecology in the face of • Whitepine blister rust • Mountain pine beetle • Climate change • Conifer encroachment Objectives Install permanent plots and collect baseline data in Region 6 Monitor natural regeneration establishment and survival Determine current stand structure of whitebark pine systems Methods • Modified from methodology developed by the Whitebark Pine Ecosystem Foundation. • Belt transect plots of 30’ X 150’ • Stand exam damage codes for non- WPBR and BWA damages • All trees monitored Differences Across the Region Fremont NF Aberts Rim Bald Butte Crane Mountain NE Oregon Mount Hood Blister Rust Incidence Blister Rust Incidence in trees taller than 4.5 ft.: • Oregon Cascades: – Avg. 25% (range 0 -86%) – Sites near Cascade crest had a higher incidence of blister rust infection levels with Ollalie Butte having the highest incidence at 86%. – 9 transects on the Deschutes were blister rust free. • Malheur avg. 55% (range 35-71%) • Okanogan-Wenatchee avg 56% (range 33 to 71%) Regeneration levels Regeneration: regeneration levels were fairly high across all regional plots, with an average of 229 trees per acre (0-1500/ac). Low levels of blister rust infections overall, with an average of 7.1% (0- 56%). Maiden Peak Survey Summary Regeneration: Summary Statistics for Whitebark pine Regeneration trees < 4.5 ft. tall WBP WBP # of Infected % regen TPA <20"tall/ >20" tall Transects regen/ac infected (regen) ac /ac Total 77 AVG 137.97 97.12 14.00 7.1 228.99 MAX 909.92 629.2 135.52 56.2 1539.12 MIN 0 0 0 0 0 Deschutes NF & 60 AVG 160.72 100.39 10.76 4.7 252.41 Three Sisters MAX 909.92 629.2 106.48 33.3 1539.12 Wilderness MIN 0 0 0 0 0 Malheur NF 11 AVG 81.84 109.12 36.08 19.7 190.96 MAX 367.84 242 135.52 56.2 551.76 MIN 0 29.04 0 0 48.4 Colville & 6 AVG 20.97 43.56 4.84 7.1 64.53 Okanagan- MAX 58.08 67.76 9.68 14.2 106.48 Wenatchee NF MIN 0 9.68 0 0 29.04 Stand Densities • Central Oregon: On average 646 tpa trees > 4.5’ in ht. of both live and dead standing – Range of 174.24 to 2041.62 tpa • WBP-- avg.56% (range 9.4%-100%) • Lodgepole pine—20.7% (0-65%) • Other—22.6 (0-82%) – Live 516 range of 135 to 1972 tpa – Dead 128 range of 10 to 406 tpa Survey Summary Whitebark pine density: • Whitebark pine densities were highly variable (range 0-1442/ac) across all plots with an average of 350 whitebark/ac > 4.5’ in height • For instance the plots on Mt. Bachelor averaged 1035 whitebark pine/ac of trees > 4.5’ tall with 20% mortality. Stands were more like stringers of whitebark surrounded by loose scree. Survey Summary Mortality (plots installed 2008-2010): Region wide there was 19% mortality (range of 0 to 77%) of whitebark pine > 4.5’ in height caused by either blister rust or mountain pine beetle. The story of the Deschutes Oregon Cascades Characteristics • Unique pumice zone with little vegetation • Ranged from pure whitebark stands to being interspersed with mountain hemlock, subalpine fir and lodgepole pine. Ollalie Butte 86% (not on map) Black Butte 7 and 43% 3-creeks 7% 3 sisters wilderness 0- Tam MacArthur Rim 0 and 70% avg. 28% 60% Tumalo Mtn. 17-30% Bachelor 2-19% Cultus 25% NVNM 0-18% Sheridan 32% avg. 5% Odell Butte 20% Live Trees-Spieces Distribution (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 %MH 20 %SF %LP 10 %WB 0 Red Hill 370 Road370 Road1 2 Ball ButteBall Butte1 2 Cultus Mtn 1 OllaliePilpil Butte Butte 1 Black BlackButte Butte1 2 Kwohl Butte 1 Odell Butte 1 TumaloTumalo MtnTumalo 1 Mtn 2 Mtn 3 Belknap Crater BlackCopper Crater Butte1 1 Maiden Peak 1 Sheridan Mtn 1 BachelorBachelor ButteBachelor Butte1Bachelor Butte2 Butte3 4 TamMcArtherTamMcArther 3 4 Little 3Little Creeks 3 Creeks Lake 1Lake 2 Newberry Crater East 3 NewberryNewberry Crater CraterNewberry West NewberrySouth 1 CraterNewberry 2 Crater South Crater North4 North5 6 2000 TPA Live and Dead 1800 TPADeadALL PIAL 1600 TPALiveall 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Red Hill Red Ball Butte 1 Butte Ball 2 Butte Ball 370 Road 1 Road 370 2 Road 370 Ollalie Butte Ollalie Pilpil Butte 1 Butte Pilpil Cultus Mtn 1 Mtn Cultus Odell Butte 1 Butte Odell Black Butte 1 Butte Black 2 Butte Black Kwohl Butte 1 Butte Kwohl 1 Mtn Tumalo 2 Mtn Tumalo 3 Mtn Tumalo Black CraterBlack 1 Maiden Peak 1 Peak Maiden Belknap Crater Belknap Copper Butte 1 Butte Copper Sheridan Mtn 1 Mtn Sheridan TamMcArther 3 TamMcArther 4 Bachelor Butte 1 Butte Bachelor 2 Butte Bachelor 3 Butte Bachelor 4 Butte Bachelor Little 3 Creeks 3 Lake 1 Little Creeks 3 Lake 2 Little Newberry Crater 3 East Newberry Crater 1 West Newberry Crater North 5 Newberry Crater North 6 Newberry Crater South 2 Newberry Crater South 4 Newberry Crater South TPA TPA >4.5' in height Key Findings • Overall whitebark distribution and density in remote areas was higher than expected • There was a much higher whitebark pine regeneration component than expected.