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International Conference on Flood Resilience Experiences in Asia and Europe 5-7 September 2013 Exeter, United Kingdom

Session A3: POLICY INSTRUMENTS AND GOVERNANCE ISSUES How Science and Technology Support the Decision Making in Response to Typhoons in

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction Wei-Sen Li, Liang-Chun Chen, Lee-Yaw Li, Jin-Cheng Fu

Hall 1.1-3 2013.09.05 16:20-16:40 2 Outlines

1.Introduction 2.Described the Taiwan’s CEOC 3.The Science and Technology of Improvement and Challenge for Typhoon Emergency Operation 4.The Disaster Early Warning system for Emergency Operation 5.The Disaster Early Warning Information during the Typhoon Events 6.Conclusions 3

1. Introduction 4 Types of Natural Disasters in Taiwan

•Among Typhoon, heavy rainfall, earthquake, cold disaster, and drought, the first two occupies largest portions of economic losses. •The emergency operation of typhoon is very important. •During a typhoon is approaching to Taiwan, the commander of the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) need the early warning information using a solution-based development of science and technology as a support for decision-making to meet practical demands proposed. 2009 Morakot Typhoon Economical Losses Typhoon Heavy rain Earthquake Cold surge Drought other 嘉義縣 南投縣 1.09%0.99% 0.71% 阿里山鄉 信義鄉 6.11% 竹崎鄉 番路鄉 10.85% 2800 大埔鄉 高雄縣 2600 2400 那瑪夏鄉 2200 2000 屏東縣 桃源鄉 1800 甲仙鄉 1600 霧台鄉 1400 六龜鄉 1200 1000 茂林鄉 800 旗山鎮 600 400 300 200 80.26% • Maximum precipitation 100 40 (2884mm/24hrs) occurred累積雨量(mm) in Alishan . 5 Providing Decision Support

• Hence, the NCDR is assigned to do the disaster early warning researches for the commander during typhoon emergency operation since 2001. 6

2.Described the Taiwan’s CEOC 7 Introduction of CEOC

•In Taiwan, the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) integrates the branches of the central government departments for making decisions to mitigate hazard damages efficiently. •The NCDR is assigned to chair the assessment group. •The group members are government agencies including CWB, SWBC, FB, WRA, CPA, DGH, NFA, CIP, DGH and CIO, sharing and exchange their warning information.

中央災害應變中心 指揮官、協同指揮官、副指揮官 前進指揮所

參謀群組 訊息群組 作業群組 行政群組

幕 管 情 災 新 網 支 搜 疏 收 水 交 農 民 醫 境 行 後 財 僚 考 資 情 聞 路 援 索 散 容 電 通 林 間 衛 外 參 追 研 監 發 資 調 救 撤 安 維 工 漁 資 環 救 政 勤 務 謀 蹤 判 控 布 訊 度 援 離 置 生 程 牧 源 保 援 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 Assessment Group • Central Weather Bureau (CWB) • Directorate General of Highways(DGH) • National Science & Technology Center for Disaster • National Fire Agency(NFA) Reduction(NCDR) • Council of Indigenous Peoples(CIP) • Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB) • Government Information Office(GIO) • Forestry Bureau(FB) • (Ministry of National Defense(MND)) • Water Resources Agency(WRA) • (Department of Civil/Social Affairs) • Construction and Planning Agency (CPA) • (Office of Disaster Management, Executive Yuan) 8 Emergency Operations of CEOC

NCDR runs scientific NCDR summons the NCDR reports to NCDR reports to analysis meeting commander Press conference NCDR CEOC CEOC CEOC •Internal Meeting •Assessment •Working Meeting •Press Conference every 3hrs Meeting every 3hrs every 6-12 hr every 6-12hrs •Provide •Generate •Overall Review •Policy description Analysis Suggestions 1. Situation reports 1. Situation 1. Rainfall 1. Warning zones 2. Readiness report description estimation 2. Evacuation 3. Assistance and 2. Readiness deployment Description 2. Flood potential 3. Reinforcement 4. Emergency 3. Assistance and 3. Debris flow 4. Bulletin to local government response deployment potential 4. Emergency 4. Precaution notice Response

Technology Policy Implementation Description 9 Assessment Group Meeting

Keep track of the typhoon changes in conditions, reducing the uncertainty of early warning update every three hours and holding intelligence judged the seminar, Work will be reported in the intelligence judged that the report on the results

Assessment Group meeting agenda 01_ Typhoon information and rainfall forecasts _ CWB 02_ Disaster warning areas judged _NCDR 03_ Flood Analysis _ WRA 04_ Mudslide alert _ SWCB 05_ Storm water sewer alert _ CPA 06_ Road warning information _ DGH 07_ Dammed lake analysis _ FB 08_ Disaster _ NFA 09_ Mountain evacuation status _CIP 10_Comprehensive _NCDR send intelligence judged the results to the other Grouping of CEOC and county Emergency Operation Center 10 Weather Warning Information

According to the Weather Bureau, the typhoon today (20) will be gradually moved northward through the Taiwan Strait, the double impact of the Western Taiwan and the outlying islands by typhoon and southwest airflow, stronger storms and rain forecast may occur extremely torrential rain areas Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi City, , Yunlin County, Changhua County, Nantou County, City, central and southern counties, shall take strict precautions against strong winds torrential rain caused flooding and landslides occurred. 11 Landslide Warning Information

 On the morning of the 20th, the southern Chiayi County, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung County, Nantou County and other counties sloping hazard prone areas to guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches, mudslides landslides occurred, and for the above countiesmountainous to alert township, preventive evacuation.  20 noon, in addition to the area increase in central Taichung City, Nantou County, Yunlin County and other counties sloping easy hazard area and the road is easy to interrupt position, should continue to pay attention to the rainfall trend, guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches, landslides sloping disasters.  The evening of the 20th, the central and southern mountain continued vigilance, City, Hsinchu County, , cities and counties sloping easy hazard region, it is recommended to pay attention to the precipitation changes, well ahead of the disaster prevention and preparedness operations.  Table 20, table 21, table 27, table 8, table 14, table 18, 24 need to guard against falling rocks, avalanches and landslides occurred, do relevant precautions and pay attention to the Directorate General of Highways to publish the information. 12 Inundation Warning Information

Today (the 20th), Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Penghu and Taitung, Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, , Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli damaged by the typhoon may appear larger rain, causingriver drainage is not easy and coastal flooding, said counties should strengthen flood alert. 13 Suggestion and Disaster Information

Dike  Pei-men, Chi-ku Area in Tainan City

Flood  Several inundation in the Kaohsiung city

Road  24 places

Slop • 2 places in Taipei city • 2 places in Nantou County

Suggestion：  Today (20) from the typhoon began to approach and influence of the western half of the land and the Islands region (Penghu, Liouciou, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.), coastal storms will be significantly enhanced, the proposed control and urged people to stay away from the beach, and are prohibited from engaging in open withwatch waves and other activities.  There are sporadic disasters, built grab the disaster, the rescue work colleagues, be sure to pay attention to their own safety. 14 Warning Sheet Delivered

Typhoon Information and rainfall Flooding warning information forecasting

Landslide warning information Weather warning information 15 Purpose of Emergency Operation

Clear expression and description of the typhoon event

1. Past disaster situations 2. Real-time monitoring information 3 Future disaster scenario.

For resource scheduling, evacuation and facility preparedness 16

3. The Science and Technology of Improvement and Challenge for Typhoon Emergency Operation 17 The Stages of Emergency Operation

 1945~2000 Using the structural methods for disaster reduction  2001~2006 Applications the disaster potential maps for evacuation  2007~2009 Developing modes base on Improving of monitoring and transmit  2010~2011 The ensemble forecasting and multi-mode warning for decision  2012~ Offers a variety of disaster scenario analysis and scenario simulation 18 1945~2000 Structural Method for Disaster Reduction

Embankments河堤工程 Irrigation灌溉及排水工程 and drainage Seawall海堤工程 Regional區域性排水工程 Drainage Reservoirs水庫水壩工程 and dams Others其他

800

700 600 500 400 300 200

工程經費（億元/年） 100 Funds (billion / (billion year) Funds 0 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Year年別 19 1945~2000 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned

• Structural methods have their limitation, but easily ignored by people and cause safety Urgent need illusion that leads to even larger disasters. for early warning • Non-structural methods such as warning, information response, mitigation are necessary. 20 2001~2006 Applications the Disaster Potential Maps for Evacuation

Reference Rainfall Disaster Rainfall Forecasting Warning Information

Rainfall concentrated Landslide warning Typhoon track information of CWB

Weather forecast Flood warning of CWB Typhoon climate information models 21 2001~2006 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned

• Monitoring need to be strengthened • Risk of single-warning mode is high Urgent need • Evacuation operation is difficult, early warning for develop unit is large numerical • Disaster caused by torrential rain as much as models typhoon

Flood disaster survey distribution survey position 22 2007~2009 Series and Integration the Numerical Models

Rainfall Landslide Inundation Socio-economic Forecast Warning Warning damage

對數單位面積家戶損失 = - 2.060+ 1.269 (對數 淹水高度) - 1.271 (房屋為自有) + 0.134 (對數 淹水次數) 單位淹水面積之家戶損失公式 + 0.501 (對數 家庭人口數) 單位淹水面積之 + 0.202 (對數 家戶每人所得) 家戶損失 + 0.281 (對數 區域淹水時間)

區域淹水 家戶 縣市 村里 淹水高度 家庭 房屋 淹水 (公分) 時間(小時) 人口數 自有率 次數 每人所得(元) 雷達估計與地面雷達估計與地面整合降雨值與地面整合降雨值與地面 參數資料庫 嘉義市 荖藤里 模擬深度 38.2 3 0.95 9.4 23201 嘉義市 後湖里 模擬深度 38.2 5 0.95 9.4 13921 可能淹水地區 觀測之差值累積量觀測之差值累積量觀測之差值累積量觀測之差值累積量 未來可能淹水地區 嘉義市 保安里 模擬深度 38.2 3 0.95 9.4 23201 未來可能淹水地區 嘉義市 新厝里 模擬深度 38.2 4 0.95 9.4 17401 總累積雨量分佈總累積雨量分佈 淹水警戒分級表淹水分級表 可能淹水深度 淹水分級表 可能淹水深度 嘉義市 北湖里 模擬深度 38.2 3 0.95 9.4 23201 低 0.5 公尺~ 1.0公尺 BUILD_AREA ZCODE FLOOD_AREA 0.5 公尺~ 1.0公尺 嘉義市 ID後庄里COUNTY模擬深度VILL 38.2 5 0.95 9.4 RATIO13921 0.5 公尺~ 1.0公尺 （m2） (m) (m2) 中 1.0 公尺~ 1.5公尺 嘉義市 竹村里 模擬深度 38.2 4 0.95 9.4 17401 Qpesums estimated 1.0 公尺~ 1.5公尺 建物淹水面積計算表 1 嘉義市 荖藤里 4315.96 0.02 2518.62 0.58 1.5 公尺以上 嘉義市 香湖里 模擬深度 38.2 3 0.95 9.4 23201 高 1.5 公尺以上 2 嘉義市 荖藤里 8884.04 0.00 160.75 0.02 : 3 : 嘉義市: 荖藤里 : 1228.08: 0.03: 1194.67: 0.97: Numerical analysis 4 嘉義市 後庄里 24264.44 0.04 8389.33 0.35 5 嘉義市 後庄里 9783.38 0.01 1937.43 0.20 各村里之家戶損失結果 6 嘉義市 保安里 208.48 0.05 208.47 1.00 7 嘉義市 後庄里 14026.41 0.00 8359.80 0.60 Landslide potential 8 嘉義市 後庄里 32897.97 0.26 1496.23 0.05 9 嘉義市 後庄里 35057.09 0.25 13401.75 0.38 10 嘉義市 後庄里 49489.03 0.21 1295.19 0.03 Disaster11 ： ： loss： ： ： ： estimation

WRF(c) mode Alert zone 物理易損性 社會易損性 MQPE

Elements at high risk

最 大 累 積 雨 量 (mm) 0 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 桃 園 縣 台 北 縣 觀測 修正後 300 - 400 400 - 500 >500 新 竹 縣

宜 蘭 縣 苗 栗 縣 Climate mode 台 中 縣 彰 化 縣 Inundation

雲 林 縣 花 蓮 縣 結合物理易損性與社會易損性進行判斷 22.00 嘉 義 縣 台 南 縣 probability forecastDike Top 20.00

高 雄 縣 台 東 縣

18.00 N 屏 東 縣 Social vulnerability W E 1st Stage Warning Water Level S 16.00

0 3 0 6 0 K ilo m e t e r s 2nd Stage Warning Water Level Stage (m) Stage

14.00 High vulnerability 3rd Stage Warning Water Level index 12.00

map River10.00 stage forecasting

28-07-200814:00 28-07-200817:00 28-07-200820:00 28-07-200823:00 29-07-200802:00 29-07-200805:00 29-07-200808:00 29-07-200811:00 29-07-200814:00 29-07-200817:00 29-07-200820:00 29-07-200823:00 Satellite estimated 28-07-200811:00 Time (hr) 23 2007~2009 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned

• The historical disasters reference low • Caused composite disasters Urgent need for multi- mode warning 2010~2011 Multi-model Establishment for Early Warning

Landslide multi-models Inundation multi-models

自訂警戒顏色設定 自訂警戒顏色設定

導入警戒模式

警戒鄉鎮圖台展示 多模式警戒鄉鎮列表 展示修正

警戒鄉鎮修正

警戒區修正

25 2010~2011 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned

• Situation of typhoon changes quickly, Urgent need • Rainfall duration is short and strong, several of • So, shorten and limit the emergency disaster operation time. scenario 2012~ Disaster Scenario Simulation

Rainfall Scenario Simulation Landslide Scenario Simulation

Inundation Scenario Simulation 2012~ Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned

• Early warning information and action is combined . Urgent need for • Using the real-time disaster for resource the mobilization and allocation. • Emphasis on critical infrastructure investigation disaster reduction and prevention. as usual • Strengthen disaster reduction as usual. 28

4. The Disaster Early Warning System for Emergency Operation 29 Information System Flow Chart

Meteorology Landslide Inundation Economy/sociology Early Modulized Integrated Warning Disaster Early Warning System Disaster

CWB SWBC FB WRA CPA DGH Disaster Decision Support NFA Emergency Map CIP Systems DGH CIO

Assessment Meeting 30 Disaster Information Collect

DGH

SWBC To find Coordinates and keyin Into the general-purpose GIS Disaster Decision WRA Support Systems

FB NFA EMIS SYATEM NFA

Spatial intelligence community 31 Format of Emergency Map

Help you avoid layers of different sizes than the column ruler set to 1:1,500,000, are subject to change your own change control

Figure-owned theme Description Four layers groupFourlayers Within poor time Drawing: when to Legend link therefore we move not only in do not have to accordance with change in it will the needs of the be updated position, fonts for automatically with Microsoft is black the computer time

10pt + crude

Basic symbols

Source Note: Explain 1.Save this file or copied to another location and then use 2.MXD changes and save the file name set please refer to the event named set of content 32 Modulized Integrated Disaster Early Warning System

The system is a composition of multi conceptually different modules across various fields of meteorology, hydrology, geology, economy and sociology. The logistic bridging between the modules and the display interface have been established and put to test according to historical events. The system is now online and ready for giving reliable information of rainfall estimation, weather forecast, typhoon track forecast, slop and flood disaster warning, risk assessment, inundation simulation, social impact, and economic losses. The system is powerful and will be continuously calibrated and improved according to the performance during disaster events in the future. 33 Display in Disaster Decision Support Systems

The warning result of connection to disaster decision support systems on display 34

5. The Disaster Early Warning Information during the Typhoon Events 35 (2012)

cumulative rainfall distribution （7/30 20：00～8/3 14：00） 36 Disaster Early Warning Information

2012 SAOLA 0801 12:00-0802 23:00

WRF Landslide Warning Inundation Warning 37 Disaster Distribution

Inundation disaster and evacuate Landslide disaster and evacuation Comprehensive disaster and evacuation 38 Pictures of Emergency Operations 39 (2012) 40 Disaster Early Warning Information

2012 TEMBIN 0824 12:00-0826 23:00

WRF Landslide Warning Inundation Warning 41 Disaster Distribution

Inundation disaster Landslide disaster Comprehensive disaster and evacuation 42 Pictures of Emergency Operations 43

6. Conclusion 44 Conclusion

1.The Purpose of Emergency Operation is ready to face the next disaster event, which over than the and the Chi-Chi earthquake. 2.The disaster reduction method of the Comprehensive River Basin Management (CRBM) is our next target. Thank you for your attentional!!