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Early Warning Disaster 1 International Conference on Flood Resilience Experiences in Asia and Europe 5-7 September 2013 Exeter, United Kingdom Session A3: POLICY INSTRUMENTS AND GOVERNANCE ISSUES How Science and Technology Support the Decision Making in Response to Typhoons in Taiwan National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction Wei-Sen Li, Liang-Chun Chen, Lee-Yaw Li, Jin-Cheng Fu Hall 1.1-3 2013.09.05 16:20-16:40 2 Outlines 1.Introduction 2.Described the Taiwan’s CEOC 3.The Science and Technology of Improvement and Challenge for Typhoon Emergency Operation 4.The Disaster Early Warning system for Emergency Operation 5.The Disaster Early Warning Information during the Typhoon Events 6.Conclusions 3 1. Introduction 4 Types of Natural Disasters in Taiwan •Among Typhoon, heavy rainfall, earthquake, cold disaster, and drought, the first two occupies largest portions of economic losses. •The emergency operation of typhoon is very important. •During a typhoon is approaching to Taiwan, the commander of the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) need the early warning information using a solution-based development of science and technology as a support for decision-making to meet practical demands proposed. 2009 Morakot Typhoon Economical Losses Typhoon Heavy rain Earthquake Cold surge Drought other 嘉義縣 南投縣 1.09%0.99% 0.71% 阿里山鄉 信義鄉 6.11% 竹崎鄉 番路鄉 10.85% 2800 大埔鄉 高雄縣 2600 2400 那瑪夏鄉 2200 2000 屏東縣 桃源鄉 1800 甲仙鄉 1600 霧台鄉 1400 六龜鄉 1200 1000 茂林鄉 800 旗山鎮 600 400 300 200 80.26% • Maximum precipitation 100 40 (2884mm/24hrs) occurred累積雨量(mm) in Alishan . 5 Providing Decision Support • Hence, the NCDR is assigned to do the disaster early warning researches for the commander during typhoon emergency operation since 2001. 6 2.Described the Taiwan’s CEOC 7 Introduction of CEOC •In Taiwan, the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) integrates the branches of the central government departments for making decisions to mitigate hazard damages efficiently. •The NCDR is assigned to chair the assessment group. •The group members are government agencies including CWB, SWBC, FB, WRA, CPA, DGH, NFA, CIP, DGH and CIO, sharing and exchange their warning information. 中央災害應變中心 指揮官、協同指揮官、副指揮官 前進指揮所 參謀群組 訊息群組 作業群組 行政群組 幕 管 情 災 新 網 支 搜 疏 收 水 交 農 民 醫 境 行 後 財 僚 考 資 情 聞 路 援 索 散 容 電 通 林 間 衛 外 參 追 研 監 發 資 調 救 撤 安 維 工 漁 資 環 救 政 勤 務 謀 蹤 判 控 布 訊 度 援 離 置 生 程 牧 源 保 援 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 組 Assessment Group • Central Weather Bureau (CWB) • Directorate General of Highways(DGH) • National Science & Technology Center for Disaster • National Fire Agency(NFA) Reduction(NCDR) • Council of Indigenous Peoples(CIP) • Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB) • Government Information Office(GIO) • Forestry Bureau(FB) • (Ministry of National Defense(MND)) • Water Resources Agency(WRA) • (Department of Civil/Social Affairs) • Construction and Planning Agency (CPA) • (Office of Disaster Management, Executive Yuan) 8 Emergency Operations of CEOC NCDR runs scientific NCDR summons the NCDR reports to NCDR reports to analysis meeting commander Press conference NCDR CEOC CEOC CEOC •Internal Meeting •Assessment •Working Meeting •Press Conference every 3hrs Meeting every 3hrs every 6-12 hr every 6-12hrs •Provide •Generate •Overall Review •Policy description Analysis Suggestions 1. Situation reports 1. Situation 1. Rainfall 1. Warning zones 2. Readiness report description estimation 2. Evacuation 3. Assistance and 2. Readiness deployment Description 2. Flood potential 3. Reinforcement 4. Emergency 3. Assistance and 3. Debris flow 4. Bulletin to local government response deployment potential 4. Emergency 4. Precaution notice Response Technology Policy Implementation Description 9 Assessment Group Meeting Keep track of the typhoon changes in conditions, reducing the uncertainty of early warning update every three hours and holding intelligence judged the seminar, Work will be reported in the intelligence judged that the report on the results Assessment Group meeting agenda 01_ Typhoon information and rainfall forecasts _ CWB 02_ Disaster warning areas judged _NCDR 03_ Flood Analysis _ WRA 04_ Mudslide alert _ SWCB 05_ Storm water sewer alert _ CPA 06_ Road warning information _ DGH 07_ Dammed lake analysis _ FB 08_ Disaster _ NFA 09_ Mountain evacuation status _CIP 10_Comprehensive _NCDR send intelligence judged the results to the other Grouping of CEOC and county Emergency Operation Center 10 Weather Warning Information According to the Weather Bureau, the typhoon today (20) will be gradually moved northward through the Taiwan Strait, the double impact of the Western Taiwan and the outlying islands by typhoon and southwest airflow, stronger storms and rain forecast may occur extremely torrential rain areas Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, Yunlin County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Taichung City, central and southern counties, shall take strict precautions against strong winds torrential rain caused flooding and landslides occurred. 11 Landslide Warning Information On the morning of the 20th, the southern Chiayi County, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung County, Nantou County and other counties sloping hazard prone areas to guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches, mudslides landslides occurred, and for the above countiesmountainous to alert township, preventive evacuation. 20 noon, in addition to the area increase in central Taichung City, Nantou County, Yunlin County and other counties sloping easy hazard area and the road is easy to interrupt position, should continue to pay attention to the rainfall trend, guard against torrential rain caused by falling rocks, avalanches, landslides sloping disasters. The evening of the 20th, the central and southern mountain continued vigilance, Taipei City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, cities and counties sloping easy hazard region, it is recommended to pay attention to the precipitation changes, well ahead of the disaster prevention and preparedness operations. Table 20, table 21, table 27, table 8, table 14, table 18, 24 need to guard against falling rocks, avalanches and landslides occurred, do relevant precautions and pay attention to the Directorate General of Highways to publish the information. 12 Inundation Warning Information Today (the 20th), Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Penghu and Taitung, Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli damaged by the typhoon may appear larger rain, causingriver drainage is not easy and coastal flooding, said counties should strengthen flood alert. 13 Suggestion and Disaster Information Dike Pei-men, Chi-ku Area in Tainan City Flood Several inundation in the Kaohsiung city Road 24 places Slop • 2 places in Taipei city • 2 places in Nantou County Suggestion： Today (20) from the typhoon began to approach and influence of the western half of the land and the Islands region (Penghu, Liouciou, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.), coastal storms will be significantly enhanced, the proposed control and urged people to stay away from the beach, and are prohibited from engaging in open withwatch waves and other activities. There are sporadic disasters, built grab the disaster, the rescue work colleagues, be sure to pay attention to their own safety. 14 Warning Sheet Delivered Typhoon Information and rainfall Flooding warning information forecasting Landslide warning information Weather warning information 15 Purpose of Emergency Operation Clear expression and description of the typhoon event 1. Past disaster situations 2. Real-time monitoring information 3 Future disaster scenario. For resource scheduling, evacuation and facility preparedness 16 3. The Science and Technology of Improvement and Challenge for Typhoon Emergency Operation 17 The Stages of Emergency Operation 1945~2000 Using the structural methods for disaster reduction 2001~2006 Applications the disaster potential maps for evacuation 2007~2009 Developing modes base on Improving of monitoring and transmit 2010~2011 The ensemble forecasting and multi-mode warning for decision 2012~ Offers a variety of disaster scenario analysis and scenario simulation 18 1945~2000 Structural Method for Disaster Reduction Embankments河堤工程 Irrigation灌溉及排水工程 and drainage Seawall海堤工程 Regional區域性排水工程 Drainage Reservoirs水庫水壩工程 and dams Others其他 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 工程經費（億元/年） 100 Funds (billion / (billion year) Funds 0 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Year年別 19 1945~2000 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned • Structural methods have their limitation, but easily ignored by people and cause safety Urgent need illusion that leads to even larger disasters. for early warning • Non-structural methods such as warning, information response, mitigation are necessary. 20 2001~2006 Applications the Disaster Potential Maps for Evacuation Reference Rainfall Disaster Rainfall Forecasting Warning Information Rainfall concentrated Landslide warning Typhoon track information of CWB Weather forecast Flood warning of CWB Typhoon climate information models 21 2001~2006 Typhoon Events and Lessons Learned • Monitoring need to be strengthened • Risk of single-warning mode is high Urgent need • Evacuation operation is difficult, early warning for develop unit is large numerical • Disaster caused by torrential rain as much as models typhoon Flood disaster survey distribution survey position 22 2007~2009 Series and Integration the Numerical Models Rainfall Landslide Inundation Socio-economic Forecast Warning Warning damage 對數單位面積家戶損失 = - 2.060+ 1.269 (對數 淹水高度) - 1.271 (房屋為自有) + 0.134
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