二零一七熱帶氣旋tropical Cyclones in 2017
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4. the TROPICS—HJ Diamond and CJ Schreck, Eds
4. THE TROPICS—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck, Eds. Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were a. Overview—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck all particularly quiet, each having about half their The Tropics in 2017 were dominated by neutral median ACE. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condi- Three tropical cyclones (TCs) reached the Saffir– tions during most of the year, with the onset of Simpson scale category 5 intensity level—two in the La Niña conditions occurring during boreal autumn. North Atlantic and one in the western North Pacific Although the year began ENSO-neutral, it initially basins. This number was less than half of the eight featured cooler-than-average sea surface tempera- category 5 storms recorded in 2015 (Diamond and tures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Schreck 2016), and was one fewer than the four re- Pacific, along with lingering La Niña impacts in the corded in 2016 (Diamond and Schreck 2017). atmospheric circulation. These conditions followed The editors of this chapter would like to insert two the abrupt end of a weak and short-lived La Niña personal notes recognizing the passing of two giants during 2016, which lasted from the July–September in the field of tropical meteorology. season until late December. Charles J. Neumann passed away on 14 November Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies warmed con- 2017, at the age of 92. Upon graduation from MIT siderably during the first several months of 2017 in 1946, Charlie volunteered as a weather officer in and by late boreal spring and early summer, the the Navy’s first airborne typhoon reconnaissance anomalies were just shy of reaching El Niño thresh- unit in the Pacific. -
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Multi-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks from Geostationary Satellite Data
remote sensing Article Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Multi-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks from Geostationary Satellite Data Juhyun Lee 1, Jungho Im 1,* , Dong-Hyun Cha 1, Haemi Park 2 and Seongmun Sim 1 1 School of Urban & Environmental Engineering in Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea; [email protected] (J.L.); [email protected] (D.-H.C.); [email protected] (S.S.) 2 Institute of Industrial Science in the University of Tokyo, A building, 4 Chome-6-1 Komaba, Meguro City, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-52-217-2824 Received: 25 November 2019; Accepted: 25 December 2019; Published: 28 December 2019 Abstract: For a long time, researchers have tried to find a way to analyze tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in real-time. Since there is no standardized method for estimating TC intensity and the most widely used method is a manual algorithm using satellite-based cloud images, there is a bias that varies depending on the TC center and shape. In this study, we adopted convolutional neural networks (CNNs) which are part of a state-of-art approach that analyzes image patterns to estimate TC intensity by mimicking human cloud pattern recognition. Both two dimensional-CNN (2D-CNN) and three-dimensional-CNN (3D-CNN) were used to analyze the relationship between multi-spectral geostationary satellite images and TC intensity. Our best-optimized model produced a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.32 kts, resulting in better performance (~35%) than the existing model using the CNN-based approach with a single channel image. -
Action Proposed
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY Fiftieth Session WRD/TC.50/7.2 28 February - 3 March 2018 28 February 2018 Ha Noi, Viet Nam ENGLISH ONLY SUMMARY OF MEMBERS’ REPORTS 2017 (submitted by AWG Chair) Summary and Purpose of Document: This document presents an overall view of the progress and issues in meteorology, hydrology and DRR aspects among TC Members with respect to tropical cyclones and related hazards in 2017. Action Proposed The Committee is invited to: (a) take note of the major progress and issues in meteorology, hydrology and DRR aspects under the Key Result Areas (KRAs) of TC as reported by Members in 2017; and (b) review the Summary of Members’ Reports 2017 in APPENDIX B with the aim of adopting a “Executive Summary” for distribution to Members’ governments and other collaborating or potential sponsoring agencies for information and reference. APPENDICES: 1) Appendix A – DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE SESSION REPORT 2) Appendix B – SUMMARY OF MEMBERS’ REPORTS 2017 1 APPENDIX A: DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE SESSION REPORT 6.2 SUMMARY OF MEMBERS’ REPORTS 1. The Committee took note of the Summary of Members’ Reports 2017 as submitted for the 12th IWS in Jeju, Republic of Koreq, highlighting the key tropical cyclone impacts on Members in 2017 and the major activities undertaken by Members under the various KRAs and components during the year. 2. The Committee expressed its appreciation to AWG Chair for preparinG the Summary of Members’ Reports. It is noted the new KRA and supportinG Priorities structure contained developed in the new TC StrateGic Plan 2017-2021 caused some confusion in the format of the Member Reports. -
Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
Flood Hazard Mapping in an Urban Area Using Combined Hydrologic-Hydraulic Models and Geospatial Technologies
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage. 5(2): 139-154, Spring 2019 Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management (GJESM) Homepage: https://www.gjesm.net/ ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER Flood hazard mapping in an urban area using combined hydrologic-hydraulic models and geospatial technologies B.A.M.Talisay*, G.R. Puno, R.A.L. Amper GeoSAFER Northern Mindanao/ Cotabato Project, College of Forestry and Environmental Science, Central Mindanao University, Musuan, Maramag, Bukidnon, Philippines ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Flooding is one of the most occurring natural hazards every year risking the lives and Article History: Received 12 August 2018 properties of the affected communities, especially in Philippine context. To visualize Revised 12 November 2018 the extent and mitigate the impacts of flood hazard in Malingon River in Valencia Accepted 30 November 2018 City, Bukidnon, this paper presents the combination of Geographic Information System, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil, observed hydro-meteorological data; and the combined Hydrologic Engineering Center- Keywords: Hydrologic Modeling System and River Analysis System models. The hydrologic Geographic information system (GIS) model determines the precipitation-runoff relationships of the watershed and the Inundation hydraulic model calculates the flood depth and flow pattern in the floodplain area. Light detection and ranging The overall performance of hydrologic model during calibration was “very good fit” Model calibration based on the criterion of Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Model Efficiency, Percentage Bias and Root Mean Square Error – Observations Standard Deviation Ratio with the values of 0.87, -8.62 and 0.46, respectively. On the other hand, the performance of hydraulic model during error computation was “intermediate fit” using F measure analysis with a value of 0.56, using confusion matrix with 80.5% accuracy and the Root Mean Square Error of 0.47 meters. -
(OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers Over Tropical Cyclones Goal of Study
P1.37P197 Comparisons and Evaluations between the Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers over Tropical Cyclones Roger T. Edson, NOAA National Weather Service, Barrigada Guam Coverage and Availability of Scatterometer: OSCAT vs. ASCAT and WindSAT Case Studies of Different Tropical Cyclone Characteristics or OSCAT (~2400L) Goal of Study NOAA/NESDIS –’Manati Site’ KNMI – EUMETSAT site Typhoon Man-Yi (16W) development from a ASCAT depiction of the development and OSCAT View monsoon gyre north or the Marianas -Compare reliability, depiction and BYU Hi-Res OSCAT intensification of Typhoon Mawar (04W) accuracy over tropical cyclones -Find strengths and weaknesses -Assess comparative loss with QuikSCAT -Evaluate NRCS and BYU Hi-Res IR and OSCAT Winds TRMM 85h with OSCAT NRCS OSCAT Development was slow with a large light and variable wind center. At this products to assist analysis time winds were beginning to consolidate about one circulation center as Combine ASCAT A/B with either OSCAT better seen in the OSCAT NRCS and BYU Hi-Res images. or WindSAT to increase coverage -Use of integrated techniques, Sensor Characteristics especially with microwave Sensor/Sat QuikSCAT ASCAT A/B WindSAT OSCAT-2 48hr Structure and intensity between 31 May (25kt) and 2 Jun (70kt) TYPE Active Active Passive Active imagery AGENCY/re-Processed JPL/NESDIS ESA/KNMI US Navy India/KNMI LAUNCH/END 1999/Nov09(end) 2006/12 2003 2009 Typhoon Tembin (15W) approaching Japan SWATH (KM) 1800 2 X 550 ~1100 1836 The intensity of a tropical cyclone that has begun GAP (KM) 0 600 N/A N/A extra-tropical transition is often underestimated RESOLUTION (KM) 25 (12.5) 50 (25) 25 50 (25) Goal of Scatterometer Data for TC Analysis when intensity is solely based on the Dvorak SPEED (KT) 4-80 5-60 10-40 5-60? Technique. -
Reprint 1345 Re-Analysis of the Maximum Intensity of Super
Reprint 1345 Re-analysis of the Maximum Intensity of Super Typhoon Hato CHOY Chun-wing, KONG Wai, LAU Po-wing The 32nd Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Seminar on Meteorological Science and Technology and The 23rd Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Meeting on Cooperation in Meteorological Operations (Macau 8-10 January 2018) 超強颱風天鴿最高強度的再分析 蔡振榮 江偉 劉保宏 香港天文台 摘要 二零一七年八月二十三日超強颱風天鴿(1713)吹襲香港期間,天文台需要 發出最高級別的十號颶風信號。當天早上本港風力普遍達到烈風至暴風程 度,南部地區及高地則持續受到颶風吹襲。天鴿吹襲香港期間,本港最少 有 129 人受傷。適逢天文大潮及漲潮,天鴿所觸發的風暴潮導致本港及珠 江口沿岸出現嚴重水浸及破壞。 天鴿橫過南海北部期間顯著增強,再分析顯示天鴿很可能在八月二十三日 早上登陸前在香港以南水域短暫發展為超強颱風,中心附近最高的 10 分鐘 持續風速估計為每小時 185 公里。本文利用所有可用的氣象資料如衛星、 雷達及地面觀測來評定天鴿的最高強度。 Re-analysis of the Maximum Intensity of Super Typhoon Hato CHOY Chun-wing KONG Wai LAU Po-wing Hong Kong Observatory Abstract Super Typhoon Hato (1713) necessitated the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal in Hong Kong, No. 10 Hurricane Signal, during its passage on 23 August 2017, with gale to storm force winds generally affecting Hong Kong and winds persistently reaching hurricane force over the southern part of the territory and on high ground that morning. At least 129 people were injured in Hong Kong and, coinciding with the high water of the astronomical tide, storm surges induced by Hato also resulted in serious flooding and damages in Hong Kong and over the coast of Pearl River Estuary. Hato intensified rapidly as it traversed the northern part of the South China Sea and re-analysis suggested that Hato very likely attained super typhoon intensity for a short period over the sea areas south of Hong Kong on the morning of 23 August just before landfall, with an estimated maximum sustained 10-minute mean wind of 185 km/h near its centre. -
Tropical Cyclones Near Landfall Can Induce Their Own Intensification
ARTICLE https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00259-8 OPEN Tropical cyclones near landfall can induce their own intensification through feedbacks on radiative forcing ✉ Charlie C. F. Lok 1, Johnny C. L. Chan 1 & Ralf Toumi 2 Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas. The focus for improving predictions of rapid intensification has so far been on environmental conditions. Here we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System to simulate tropical cyclones making landfall in South China: Nida (2016), Hato (2107) and 1234567890():,; Mangkhut (2018). Two smaller storms (Hato and Nida) undergo intensification, which is induced by the storms themselves through their extensive subsidence ahead of the storms, leading to clear skies and strong solar heating of the near-shore sea water over a shallow continental shelf. This heating provides latent heat to the storms, and subsequently inten- sification occurs. In contrast, such heating does not occur in the larger storm (Mangkhut) due to its widespread cloud cover. This results imply that to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes prior to landfall, it is necessary to correctly simulate the short-term evolution of near-shore ocean conditions. 1 School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. 2 Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College London, ✉ London, UK. email: [email protected] COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | (2021) 2:184 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00259-8 | www.nature.com/commsenv 1 ARTICLE COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00259-8 ecause the damages caused by a tropical cyclone (TC) at moves over this warm water, and hence intensification occurs. -
Research Article Application of Buoy Observations in Determining Characteristics of Several Typhoons Passing the East China Sea in August 2012
Hindawi Publishing Corporation Advances in Meteorology Volume 2013, Article ID 357497, 6 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/357497 Research Article Application of Buoy Observations in Determining Characteristics of Several Typhoons Passing the East China Sea in August 2012 Ningli Huang,1 Zheqing Fang,2 and Fei Liu1 1 Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center, Shanghai, China 2 Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China Correspondence should be addressed to Zheqing Fang; [email protected] Received 27 February 2013; Revised 5 May 2013; Accepted 21 May 2013 Academic Editor: Lian Xie Copyright © 2013 Ningli Huang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The buoy observation network in the East China Sea is used to assist the determination of the characteristics of tropical cyclone structure in August 2012. When super typhoon “Haikui” made landfall in northern Zhejiang province, it passed over three buoys, the East China Sea Buoy, the Sea Reef Buoy, and the Channel Buoy, which were located within the radii of the 13.9 m/s winds, 24.5 m/s winds, and 24.5 m/s winds, respectively. These buoy observations verified the accuracy of typhoon intensity determined by China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The East China Sea Buoy had closely observed typhoons “Bolaven” and “Tembin,” which provided real-time guidance for forecasters to better understand the typhoon structure and were also used to quantify the air-sea interface heat exchange during the passage of the storm. -
Shear Banding
2020-1065 IJOI http://www.ijoi-online.org/ THE MAJOR CAUSE OF BRIDGE COLLAPSES ACROSS ROCK RIVERBEDS: SHEAR BANDING Tse-Shan Hsu Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Feng-Chia University President, Institute of Mitigation for Earthquake Shear Banding Disasters Taiwan, R.O.C. [email protected] Po Yen Chuang Ph.D Program in Civil and Hydraulic Engineering Feng-Chia University, Taiwan, R.O.C. Kuan-Tang Shen Secretary-General, Institute of Mitigation for Earthquake Shear Banding Disasters Taiwan, R.O.C. Fu-Kuo Huang Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Tamkang University, Taiwan, R.O.C. Abstract Current performance design codes require that bridges be designed that they will not col- lapse within their design life. However, in the past twenty five years, a large number of bridges have collapsed in Taiwan, with their actual service life far shorter than their de- sign life. This study explores the major cause of the collapse of many these bridges. The results of the study reveal the following. (1) Because riverbeds can be divided into high shear strength rock riverbeds and low shear strength soil riverbeds, the main cause of bridge collapse on a high shear strength rock riverbed is the shear band effect inducing local brittle fracture of the rock, and the main cause on a low shear strength soil riverbed is scouring, but current bridge design specifications only fortify against the scouring of low shear strength soil riverbeds. (2) Since Taiwan is mountainous, most of the collapsed bridges cross high shear strength rock riverbeds in mountainous areas and, therefore, the major cause of collapse of bridges in Taiwan is that their design does not consider the 180 The International Journal of Organizational Innovation Volume 13 Number 1, July 2020 2020-1065 IJOI http://www.ijoi-online.org/ shear band effect. -
Abstract Proceeding
1 The Proceedings for The 6th International Conference on Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Change August 19 - 21, 2013, Hong Kong Editors: Dr. Banghua Yan Dr. Xiaozhen Xiong Prof. Zhanqing Li Dr. Jingfeng Huang 2 EFFECTS OF AIR-SEA COUPLING ON THE BOREAL SUMMER INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN Ailan Lin1,2, Tim Li, Xiouhua Fu2, Jing-Jia Luo3, Yukio Masumoto3 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China 2. IPRC and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 3. Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan Abstract The effects of air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the eastward- and northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are investigated by comparing a fully coupled (CTL) and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean (pdIO) experiment using SINTEX-F coupled GCM. Air-sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of both the eastward and northward propagations of the BSISO. The maximum spectrum differences of the northward- (eastward-) propagating BSISO between the CTL and pdIO reach 30% (25%) of their respective climatological values. The enhanced eastward (northward) propagation is related to the zonal (meridional) asymmetry of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). A positive SSTA appears to the east (north) of the BSISO convection, which may positively feed back to the BSISO convection. In addition, air-sea coupling may enhance the northward propagation through the changes of the mean vertical wind shear and low-level specific humidity. The interannual variations of the TIO regulate the air-sea interaction effect. Air-sea coupling enhances (reduces) the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, positive Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and normal years (during positive IOD and negative IOB years). -
Field Survey of the 2017 Typhoon Hato and a Comparison with Storm
1 Field survey of the 2017 Typhoon Hato and a comparison with storm 2 surge modeling in Macau 3 Linlin Li1*, Jie Yang2,3*, Chuan-Yao Lin4, Constance Ting Chua5, Yu Wang1,6, Kuifeng 4 Zhao2, Yun-Ta Wu2, Philip Li-Fan Liu2,7,8, Adam D. Switzer1,5, Kai Meng Mok9, Peitao 5 Wang10, Dongju Peng1 6 1Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 7 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 8 3College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, China 9 4Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan 10 5Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 11 6Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 12 7School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, USA 13 8Institute of Hydrological and Ocean Research, National Central University, Taiwan 14 9Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, China 15 10National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China 16 Corresponding to: Linlin Li ([email protected]) ; Jie Yang ([email protected]) 17 Abstract: On August 23, 2017 a Category 3 Typhoon Hato struck Southern China. Among the hardest hit cities, 18 Macau experienced the worst flooding since 1925. In this paper, we present a high-resolution survey map recording 19 inundation depths and distances at 278 sites in Macau. We show that one half of the Macau Peninsula was inundated 20 with the extent largely confined by the hilly topography. The Inner Harbor area suffered the most with the maximum 21 inundation depth of 3.1m at the coast.