DOCSLIB.ORG

Abstract Proceeding

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Abstract Proceeding 1 The Proceedings for The 6th International Conference on Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Change August 19 - 21, 2013, Hong Kong Editors: Dr. Banghua Yan Dr. Xiaozhen Xiong Prof. Zhanqing Li Dr. Jingfeng Huang 2 EFFECTS OF AIR-SEA COUPLING ON THE BOREAL SUMMER INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN Ailan Lin1,2, Tim Li, Xiouhua Fu2, Jing-Jia Luo3, Yukio Masumoto3 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China 2. IPRC and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 3. Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan Abstract The effects of air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the eastward- and northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are investigated by comparing a fully coupled (CTL) and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean (pdIO) experiment using SINTEX-F coupled GCM. Air-sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of both the eastward and northward propagations of the BSISO. The maximum spectrum differences of the northward- (eastward-) propagating BSISO between the CTL and pdIO reach 30% (25%) of their respective climatological values. The enhanced eastward (northward) propagation is related to the zonal (meridional) asymmetry of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). A positive SSTA appears to the east (north) of the BSISO convection, which may positively feed back to the BSISO convection. In addition, air-sea coupling may enhance the northward propagation through the changes of the mean vertical wind shear and low-level specific humidity. The interannual variations of the TIO regulate the air-sea interaction effect. Air-sea coupling enhances (reduces) the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, positive Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and normal years (during positive IOD and negative IOB years). Such phase dependence is attributed to the role of the background mean westerly in affecting the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. A climatological weak westerly in the equatorial Indian Ocean can be readily reversed by anomalous zonal SST gradients during the positive IOD and negative IOB events. Although the SSTA is always positive to the northeast of the BSISO convection for all interannual modes, air-sea coupling reduces the zonal asymmetry of the low-level specific humidity and thus the eastward propagation spectrum during the positive IOD and negative IOB modes, while strengthening them during the other modes. Air-sea coupling enhances the northward propagation under all interannual modes due to the persistent westerly monsoon flow over the northern Indian Ocean. IMPROVEMENT OF AEROSOL RETRIEVAL NEAR BOUNDARY-LAYER CLOUDS Alexander Marshak, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Rob Levy, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Lorraine Remer, University of Maryland Baltimore County Norman Loeb, NASA/Langley Research Center Tamas Varnai, University of Maryland Baltimore County Robert F. Cahalan, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Abstract 3 We apply a two-layer model to correct 3D cloud radiative effects on aerosol retrievals near boundary-layer clouds. This is the first time that this method is being applied to a full MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) granule. The process of the correction includes converting Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) broadband flux to visible narrowband flux, computing the clear-sky radiance enhancement, and retrieving aerosol properties. We find that the correction leads to smaller values in aerosol optical depth (AOD), the Ångström exponent, and the small mode aerosol fraction (SMAF) of the total AOD. It also makes the average aerosol particle size near clouds larger than far away from clouds, which is more realistic than the opposite behavior observed in operational retrievals. We discuss issues in the current correction method as well as our plans to validate the algorithm. THE WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME: GRAND CHALLENGES FOR THE DECADE AHEAD Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA Abstract The World Climate Research Programme was established in 1980 under the joint sponsorship of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) and, since 1993, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO. The main objectives for the WCRP since its inception have been to determine the predictability of climate and to determine the effect of human activities on climate. These objectives are just as valid today as they were 30 years ago. In addition, since 2005 as part of WCRP?s strategic planning at the time, there has been an additional overlay to the program focusing on an increasing range of practical applications of climate research of direct relevance, benefit and value to society. Over the past several years the sponsors of the WCRP have started several new strategic initiatives. In 2009 in Geneva the WMO sponsored the World Climate Conference 3. The outcomes of which was the decision to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. Three weeks after the World Climate Conference, under the auspices of the IOC, the oceanographic community convened in Venice for Ocean Obs 09 to strengthen and enhance the international framework for sustained world ocean observing and information systems supporting the needs of society about ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and chemistry. Looking to the future, ICSU initiated an Earth System visioning process, together with the scientific community and the international funding organizations. In parallel the International Group of Funding Agencies (IGFA) developed the Belmont Challenge that identified the need to deliver knowledge needed for action to mitigate and adapt to detrimental environmental change and extreme hazardous events. The outcomes of both the ICSU visioning and the Belmont Challenge have led to the proposal of a new 10 year initiative in Earth System Science for Global Sustainability known as Future Earth. 4 In response to these activities of its sponsors, over the past several years the WCRP leadership and its network of affiliate researchers have focused their efforts on: (a) coordinating international climate research, modeling and prediction in support of the priorities identified by WCRP sponsors and stakeholders; (b) developing a future research strategy and priorities in response to the rapidly emerging needs for science-based climate information for decision- making, in close consultation with the international science community; and (c) establishing a vigorous capacity-development initiative to train the next generation of scientists and research networks at the global and regional levels. As result of these efforts, this presentation will focus on the Grand Challenges in research of the physical climate system as identified by the WCRP for the decade ahead. NOAA COASTWATCH OKEANOS OCEAN COLOR OPERATIONAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM Banghua Yan1, I. Simpson2, E. Rodriguez2, D. Van Pelt2, S. Spangler2, and A. Irvin1 1 NOAA/OSPO/Satellite Products and Services Division, USA 2 SSAI Inc., USA Abstract In recent years, the NOAA CoastWatch Okeanos Ocean Color Operational Production System (OPS) has been providing a series of high quality ocean color operational products for our user communities, e.g., 1 km daily and bi-monthly mean chlorophyll concentrations, and chlorophyll concentration anomaly compared to 61-day averages from MODIS/AQUA. The products of remote sensing reflectance at 667 nm are also available. The products have been beneficial in assessing water quality and tracking potentially harmful algal blooms in order to protect public health. For example, the chlorophyll concentration product has been used to understand and predict harmful algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico by the NOAA CO-OPS. Recent efforts also continue to provide more MODIS/AQUA ocean color products to user community. The chlorophyll frontal operational products are expected to be available in June 2013. Operational products of Global Emiliania huxleyi (Ehux) bloom distribution may be available in 2013 if NOAA operational users are identified. More importantly, a new NOAA ocean color products Quality Assurance (QA) monitoring tool is also added to the Okeanos OPS. Many MODIS products will be extended to the NPP Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) in 2014. Therefore, it is expected that our future operational ocean color product system offers additional valuable information NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER MONSOON INTENSIFIED BY MEGA-ENSO AND AMO Bin Wang a,b, Jian Liuc, Hyung-Jin Kimd, Peter J. Webstere, So-Young Yimb, and Baoqiang Xiangb a. Department of Meteorology and b. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822; c. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China 5 d. Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan e. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308 Abstract Prediction of monsoon changes in the coming decades is important for infrastructure planning and sustainable economic development. The decadal prediction involves
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 4. the TROPICS—HJ Diamond and CJ Schreck, Eds
    4. THE TROPICS—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck, Eds. Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were a. Overview—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck all particularly quiet, each having about half their The Tropics in 2017 were dominated by neutral median ACE. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condi- Three tropical cyclones (TCs) reached the Saffir– tions during most of the year, with the onset of Simpson scale category 5 intensity level—two in the La Niña conditions occurring during boreal autumn. North Atlantic and one in the western North Pacific Although the year began ENSO-neutral, it initially basins. This number was less than half of the eight featured cooler-than-average sea surface tempera- category 5 storms recorded in 2015 (Diamond and tures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Schreck 2016), and was one fewer than the four re- Pacific, along with lingering La Niña impacts in the corded in 2016 (Diamond and Schreck 2017). atmospheric circulation. These conditions followed The editors of this chapter would like to insert two the abrupt end of a weak and short-lived La Niña personal notes recognizing the passing of two giants during 2016, which lasted from the July–September in the field of tropical meteorology. season until late December. Charles J. Neumann passed away on 14 November Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies warmed con- 2017, at the age of 92. Upon graduation from MIT siderably during the first several months of 2017 in 1946, Charlie volunteered as a weather officer in and by late boreal spring and early summer, the the Navy’s first airborne typhoon reconnaissance anomalies were just shy of reaching El Niño thresh- unit in the Pacific.
    [Show full text]
  • Recent Advances in Research on Tropical Cyclogenesis
    Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 9 (2020) 87e105 www.keaipublishing.com/tcrr Recent advances in research on tropical cyclogenesis Brian H. Tang a,*, Juan Fang b, Alicia Bentley a,y, Gerard Kilroy c, Masuo Nakano d, Myung-Sook Park e, V.P.M. Rajasree f, Zhuo Wang g, Allison A. Wing h, Liguang Wu i a University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, USA b Nanjing University, Nanjing, China c Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany d Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan e Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea f Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics Research, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK g University of Illinois, Urbana, USA h Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA i Fudan University, Shanghai, China Available online 7 May 2020 Abstract This review article summarizes recent (2014e2019) advances in our understanding of tropical cyclogenesis, stemming from activities at the ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. Tropical cyclogenesis involves the interaction of dynamic and thermodynamic processes at multiple spatio-temporal scales. Studies have furthered our understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis may be affected by external processes, such as intraseasonal oscillations, monsoon circulations, the intertropical convergence zone, and midlatitude troughs and cutoff lows. Addi- tionally, studies have furthered our understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis may be affected by internal processes, such as the organization of deep convection; the evolution of the “pouch” structure; the role of friction; the development of the moist, warm core; the importance of surface fluxes; and the role of the mid-level vortex.
    [Show full text]
  • Flood Hazard Mapping in an Urban Area Using Combined Hydrologic-Hydraulic Models and Geospatial Technologies
    Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage. 5(2): 139-154, Spring 2019 Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management (GJESM) Homepage: https://www.gjesm.net/ ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER Flood hazard mapping in an urban area using combined hydrologic-hydraulic models and geospatial technologies B.A.M.Talisay*, G.R. Puno, R.A.L. Amper GeoSAFER Northern Mindanao/ Cotabato Project, College of Forestry and Environmental Science, Central Mindanao University, Musuan, Maramag, Bukidnon, Philippines ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Flooding is one of the most occurring natural hazards every year risking the lives and Article History: Received 12 August 2018 properties of the affected communities, especially in Philippine context. To visualize Revised 12 November 2018 the extent and mitigate the impacts of flood hazard in Malingon River in Valencia Accepted 30 November 2018 City, Bukidnon, this paper presents the combination of Geographic Information System, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil, observed hydro-meteorological data; and the combined Hydrologic Engineering Center- Keywords: Hydrologic Modeling System and River Analysis System models. The hydrologic Geographic information system (GIS) model determines the precipitation-runoff relationships of the watershed and the Inundation hydraulic model calculates the flood depth and flow pattern in the floodplain area. Light detection and ranging The overall performance of hydrologic model during calibration was “very good fit” Model calibration based on the criterion of Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Model Efficiency, Percentage Bias and Root Mean Square Error – Observations Standard Deviation Ratio with the values of 0.87, -8.62 and 0.46, respectively. On the other hand, the performance of hydraulic model during error computation was “intermediate fit” using F measure analysis with a value of 0.56, using confusion matrix with 80.5% accuracy and the Root Mean Square Error of 0.47 meters.
    [Show full text]
  • 1St View 1 January 2011
    1ST VIEW 1 January 2011 Page TABLE OF CONTENTS RENEWALS – 1 January 2011 Introduction 3 Casualty Territory and Comments 4 Rates 6 Specialties Line of Business and Comments 6 Rates 8 Property Territory and Comments 9 Rates Rate Graphs 3 Capital Markets Comments 5 Workers’ Compensation Territory and Comments 5 Rates 5 1st View This thrice yearly publication delivers the very first view on current market conditions to our readers. In addition to real-time Event Reports, our clients receive our daily news brief, Willis Re Rise ’ n shinE, periodic newsletters, white papers and other reports. Willis Re Global resources, local delivery For over 00 years, Willis Re has proudly served its clients, helping them obtain better value solutions and make better reinsurance decisions. As one of the world’s premier global reinsurance brokers, with 40 locations worldwide, Willis Re provides local service with the full backing of an integrated global reinsurance broker. © Copyright 00 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources we consider to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This report is for general guidance only, is not intended to be relied upon, and action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should not be taken without first obtaining specific advice.
    [Show full text]
  • (OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers Over Tropical Cyclones Goal of Study
    P1.37P197 Comparisons and Evaluations between the Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers over Tropical Cyclones Roger T. Edson, NOAA National Weather Service, Barrigada Guam Coverage and Availability of Scatterometer: OSCAT vs. ASCAT and WindSAT Case Studies of Different Tropical Cyclone Characteristics or OSCAT (~2400L) Goal of Study NOAA/NESDIS –’Manati Site’ KNMI – EUMETSAT site Typhoon Man-Yi (16W) development from a ASCAT depiction of the development and OSCAT View monsoon gyre north or the Marianas -Compare reliability, depiction and BYU Hi-Res OSCAT intensification of Typhoon Mawar (04W) accuracy over tropical cyclones -Find strengths and weaknesses -Assess comparative loss with QuikSCAT -Evaluate NRCS and BYU Hi-Res IR and OSCAT Winds TRMM 85h with OSCAT NRCS OSCAT Development was slow with a large light and variable wind center. At this products to assist analysis time winds were beginning to consolidate about one circulation center as Combine ASCAT A/B with either OSCAT better seen in the OSCAT NRCS and BYU Hi-Res images. or WindSAT to increase coverage -Use of integrated techniques, Sensor Characteristics especially with microwave Sensor/Sat QuikSCAT ASCAT A/B WindSAT OSCAT-2 48hr Structure and intensity between 31 May (25kt) and 2 Jun (70kt) TYPE Active Active Passive Active imagery AGENCY/re-Processed JPL/NESDIS ESA/KNMI US Navy India/KNMI LAUNCH/END 1999/Nov09(end) 2006/12 2003 2009 Typhoon Tembin (15W) approaching Japan SWATH (KM) 1800 2 X 550 ~1100 1836 The intensity of a tropical cyclone that has begun GAP (KM) 0 600 N/A N/A extra-tropical transition is often underestimated RESOLUTION (KM) 25 (12.5) 50 (25) 25 50 (25) Goal of Scatterometer Data for TC Analysis when intensity is solely based on the Dvorak SPEED (KT) 4-80 5-60 10-40 5-60? Technique.
    [Show full text]
  • Research Article Application of Buoy Observations in Determining Characteristics of Several Typhoons Passing the East China Sea in August 2012
    Hindawi Publishing Corporation Advances in Meteorology Volume 2013, Article ID 357497, 6 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/357497 Research Article Application of Buoy Observations in Determining Characteristics of Several Typhoons Passing the East China Sea in August 2012 Ningli Huang,1 Zheqing Fang,2 and Fei Liu1 1 Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center, Shanghai, China 2 Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China Correspondence should be addressed to Zheqing Fang; [email protected] Received 27 February 2013; Revised 5 May 2013; Accepted 21 May 2013 Academic Editor: Lian Xie Copyright © 2013 Ningli Huang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The buoy observation network in the East China Sea is used to assist the determination of the characteristics of tropical cyclone structure in August 2012. When super typhoon “Haikui” made landfall in northern Zhejiang province, it passed over three buoys, the East China Sea Buoy, the Sea Reef Buoy, and the Channel Buoy, which were located within the radii of the 13.9 m/s winds, 24.5 m/s winds, and 24.5 m/s winds, respectively. These buoy observations verified the accuracy of typhoon intensity determined by China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The East China Sea Buoy had closely observed typhoons “Bolaven” and “Tembin,” which provided real-time guidance for forecasters to better understand the typhoon structure and were also used to quantify the air-sea interface heat exchange during the passage of the storm.
    [Show full text]
  • 二零一七熱帶氣旋tropical Cyclones in 2017
    176 第四節 熱帶氣旋統計表 表4.1是二零一七年在北太平洋西部及南海區域（即由赤道至北緯45度、東 經 100度至180 度所包括的範圍）的熱帶氣旋一覽。表內所列出的日期只說明某熱帶氣旋在上述範圍內 出現的時間，因而不一定包括整個風暴過程。這個限制對表內其他元素亦同樣適用。 表4.2是天文台在二零一七年為船舶發出的熱帶氣旋警告的次數、時段、首個及末個警告 發出的時間。當有熱帶氣旋位於香港責任範圍內時（即由北緯10至30度、東經105至125 度所包括的範圍），天文台會發出這些警告。表內使用的時間為協調世界時。 表4.3是二零一七年熱帶氣旋警告信號發出的次數及其時段的摘要。表內亦提供每次熱帶 氣旋警告信號生效的時間和發出警報的次數。表內使用的時間為香港時間。 表4.4是一九五六至二零一七年間熱帶氣旋警告信號發出的次數及其時段的摘要。 表4.5是一九五六至二零一七年間每年位於香港責任範圍內以及每年引致天文台需要發 出熱帶氣旋警告信號的熱帶氣旋總數。 表4.6是一九五六至二零一七年間天文台發出各種熱帶氣旋警告信號的最長、最短及平均 時段。 表4.7是二零一七年當熱帶氣旋影響香港時本港的氣象觀測摘要。資料包括熱帶氣旋最接 近香港時的位置及時間和當時估計熱帶氣旋中心附近的最低氣壓、京士柏、香港國際機 場及橫瀾島錄得的最高風速、香港天文台錄得的最低平均海平面氣壓以及香港各潮汐測 量站錄得的最大風暴潮（即實際水位高出潮汐表中預計的部分，單位為米）。 表4.8.1是二零一七年位於香港600公里範圍內的熱帶氣旋及其為香港所帶來的雨量。 表4.8.2是一八八四至一九三九年以及一九四七至二零一七年十個為香港帶來最多雨量 的熱帶氣旋和有關的雨量資料。 表4.9是自一九四六年至二零一七年間，天文台發出十號颶風信號時所錄得的氣象資料， 包括熱帶氣旋吹襲香港時的最近距離及方位、天文台錄得的最低平均海平面氣壓、香港 各站錄得的最高60分鐘平均風速和最高陣風。 表4.10是二零一七年熱帶氣旋在香港所造成的損失。資料參考了各政府部門和公共事業 機構所提供的報告及本地報章的報導。 表4.11是一九六零至二零一七年間熱帶氣旋在香港所造成的人命傷亡及破壞。資料參考 了各政府部門和公共事業機構所提供的報告及本地報章的報導。 表4.12是二零一七年天文台發出的熱帶氣旋路徑預測驗証。 177 Section 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE STATISTICS AND TABLES TABLE 4.1 is a list of tropical cyclones in 2017 in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea (i.e. the area bounded by the Equator, 45°N, 100°E and 180°). The dates cited are the residence times of each tropical cyclone within the above‐mentioned region and as such might not cover the full life‐ span. This limitation applies to all other elements in the table. TABLE 4.2 gives the number of tropical cyclone warnings for shipping issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2017, the durations of these warnings and the times of issue of the first and last warnings for all tropical cyclones in Hong Kong's area of responsibility (i.e. the area bounded by 10°N, 30°N, 105°E and 125°E). Times are given in hours and minutes in UTC. TABLE 4.3 presents a summary of the occasions/durations of the issuing of tropical cyclone warning signals in 2017. The sequence of the signals displayed and the number of tropical cyclone warning bulletins issued for each tropical cyclone are also given.
    [Show full text]
  • RA IV Hurricane Committee Thirty-Third Session
    ｄｒ WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE THIRTY­THIRD SESSION GRAND CAYMAN, CAYMAN ISLANDS (8 to 12 March 2011) FINAL REPORT 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION At the kind invitation of the Government of the Cayman Islands, the thirty­third session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee was held in George Town, Grand Cayman from 8 to 12 March 2011. The opening ceremony commenced at 0830 hours on Tuesday, 8 March 2011. 1.1 Opening of the session 1.1.1 Mr Fred Sambula, Director General of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, welcomed the participants to the session. He urged that in the face of the annual recurrent threats from tropical cyclones that the Committee review the technical & operational plans with an aim at further refining the Early Warning System to enhance its service delivery to the nations. 1.1.2 Mr Arthur Rolle, President of Regional Association IV (RA IV) opened his remarks by informing the Committee members of the national hazards in RA IV in 2010. He mentioned that the nation of Haiti suffered severe damage from the earthquake in January. He thanked the Governments of France, Canada and the United States for their support to the Government of Haiti in providing meteorological equipment and human resource personnel. He also thanked the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and others for their support to Haiti. The President spoke on the changes that were made to the hurricane warning systems at the 32 nd session of the Hurricane Committee in Bermuda. He mentioned that the changes may have resulted in the reduced loss of lives in countries impacted by tropical cyclones.
    [Show full text]
  • Summary of 2010 Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Forecast
    SUMMARY OF 2010 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHOR’S SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS The 2010 hurricane season had activity at well above-average levels. Our seasonal predictions were quite successful. The United States was very fortunate to have not experienced any landfalling hurricanes this year. By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative, (970-491-6432) is available to answer various questions about this verification. Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Email: [email protected] As of 10 November 2010* *Climatologically, about two percent of Net Tropical Cyclone activity occurs after this date 1 Research Scientist 2 Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science 1 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2010 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology 9 Dec 2009 Update Update Update Observed (in parentheses) 7 April 2010 2 June 2010 4 Aug 2010 2010 Total Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11-16 15 18 18 19 Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 51-75 75 90 90 88.25 Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 6-8 8 10 10 12 Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 24-39 35 40 40 37.50 Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 3-5 4 5 5 5 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0) 6-12 10 13 13 11 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.2) 100-162 150 185 185 163 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 108-172 160 195 195 195 Note: Any storms forming after November 10 will be discussed with the December forecast for 2011 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity.
    [Show full text]
  • The Footprints of Saharan Air Layer and Lightning on the Formation of Tropical Depressions Over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean
    San Jose State University SJSU ScholarWorks Master's Theses Master's Theses and Graduate Research Summer 2014 The Footprints of Saharan Air Layer and Lightning on the Formation of Tropical Depressions over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean Diana Caroly Centeno San Jose State University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/etd_theses Recommended Citation Centeno, Diana Caroly, "The Footprints of Saharan Air Layer and Lightning on the Formation of Tropical Depressions over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean" (2014). Master's Theses. 4456. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31979/etd.cq5z-6zek https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/etd_theses/4456 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Master's Theses and Graduate Research at SJSU ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of SJSU ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE FOOTPRINTS OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND LIGHTNING ON THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Science San José State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science by Diana C. Centeno Delgado August 2014 © 2014 Diana C. Centeno Delgado ALL RIGHTS RESERVED The Designated Thesis Committee Approves the Thesis Titled THE FOOTPRINTS OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND LIGHTNING ON THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN by Diana C. Centeno Delgado APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE SCIENCE SAN JOSÉ STATE UNIVERSITY August 2014 Dr. Sen Chiao Department of Meteorology and Climate Science Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded 10/05/21 02:09 PM UTC 1426 WEATHER and FORECASTING VOLUME 29
    DECEMBER 2014 W E I 1425 Surface Wind Nowcasting in the Penghu Islands Based on Classified Typhoon Tracks and the Effects of the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan CHIH-CHIANG WEI Department of Digital Content Designs and Management, Toko University, Pu-Tzu City, Chia-Yi County, Taiwan (Manuscript received 5 March 2014, in final form 21 September 2014) ABSTRACT The purposes of this study were to forecast the hourly typhoon wind velocity over the Penghu Islands, and to discuss the effects of the terrain of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan over the Penghu Islands based on typhoon tracks. On average, a destructive typhoon hits the Penghu Islands every 15–20 yr. As a typhoon approaches the Penghu Islands, its track and intensity are influenced by the CMR topography. Therefore, CMR complicates the wind forecast of the Penghu Islands. Six main typhoon tracks (classes I–VI) are classified based on typhoon directions, as follows: (I) the direction of direct westward movement across the CMR of Taiwan, (II) the direction of northward movement along the eastern coast of Taiwan, (III) the direction of northward movement traveling through Taiwan Strait, (IV) the direction of westward movement traveling through Luzon Strait, (V) the direction of westward movement traveling through the southern East China Sea (near northern Taiwan), and (VI) the irregular track direction. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) were used as the forecasting technique for predicting the wind velocity. A total of 49 typhoons from 2000 to 2012 were analyzed. Results showed that the ANFIS models provided high-reliability predictions for wind velocity, and the ANFIS achieved more favorable performance than did the MLPNN.
    [Show full text]
  • Print Version
    UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (January 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for December 2017 1.1 In December 2017, Southeast Asia experienced northeast monsoon conditions with drier weather conditions over the northern ASEAN region, and rainy or wet weather conditions in the southern ASEAN region. Most of the rain during the month fell within the region bounded between 10oS and 10oN of the Equator. The most intense rain that fell during the month was over the central South China Sea and to the east of the Philippines. These areas coincided with the path of the tropical cyclones crossing the central South China Sea, north of Borneo after making landfall in the Philippines. The rainfall distribution for December 2017 is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Daily average rainfall for the ASEAN region Figure 2: Percent of Normal Rainfall for December 2017. in December 2017. (Source: JAXA Global Satellite The rainfall data may be less representative for areas with Mapping of Precipitation) a less dense rainfall network. 1.2 In the second half of December 2017, intensification of the high pressure system in northern Asia brought a monsoon surge or a sudden surge of cold winds over the South China Sea. As these strong northeasterly winds blew equatorward over the South China Sea, it gathered moisture and led to the development of persistent rain clouds over large parts of the equatorial region. The surges brought strong winds and spells of moderate to heavy rain to Borneo, Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. In particular, the eastern coastal states of Peninsular Malaysia and northern coast of Borneo were affected by heavy rainfall and intense floods arising from the monsoon surges.
    [Show full text]