Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (No.5) Situation Report No
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4. the TROPICS—HJ Diamond and CJ Schreck, Eds
4. THE TROPICS—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck, Eds. Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were a. Overview—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck all particularly quiet, each having about half their The Tropics in 2017 were dominated by neutral median ACE. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condi- Three tropical cyclones (TCs) reached the Saffir– tions during most of the year, with the onset of Simpson scale category 5 intensity level—two in the La Niña conditions occurring during boreal autumn. North Atlantic and one in the western North Pacific Although the year began ENSO-neutral, it initially basins. This number was less than half of the eight featured cooler-than-average sea surface tempera- category 5 storms recorded in 2015 (Diamond and tures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Schreck 2016), and was one fewer than the four re- Pacific, along with lingering La Niña impacts in the corded in 2016 (Diamond and Schreck 2017). atmospheric circulation. These conditions followed The editors of this chapter would like to insert two the abrupt end of a weak and short-lived La Niña personal notes recognizing the passing of two giants during 2016, which lasted from the July–September in the field of tropical meteorology. season until late December. Charles J. Neumann passed away on 14 November Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies warmed con- 2017, at the age of 92. Upon graduation from MIT siderably during the first several months of 2017 in 1946, Charlie volunteered as a weather officer in and by late boreal spring and early summer, the the Navy’s first airborne typhoon reconnaissance anomalies were just shy of reaching El Niño thresh- unit in the Pacific. -
Flood Hazard Mapping in an Urban Area Using Combined Hydrologic-Hydraulic Models and Geospatial Technologies
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage. 5(2): 139-154, Spring 2019 Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management (GJESM) Homepage: https://www.gjesm.net/ ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER Flood hazard mapping in an urban area using combined hydrologic-hydraulic models and geospatial technologies B.A.M.Talisay*, G.R. Puno, R.A.L. Amper GeoSAFER Northern Mindanao/ Cotabato Project, College of Forestry and Environmental Science, Central Mindanao University, Musuan, Maramag, Bukidnon, Philippines ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Flooding is one of the most occurring natural hazards every year risking the lives and Article History: Received 12 August 2018 properties of the affected communities, especially in Philippine context. To visualize Revised 12 November 2018 the extent and mitigate the impacts of flood hazard in Malingon River in Valencia Accepted 30 November 2018 City, Bukidnon, this paper presents the combination of Geographic Information System, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model, land cover, soil, observed hydro-meteorological data; and the combined Hydrologic Engineering Center- Keywords: Hydrologic Modeling System and River Analysis System models. The hydrologic Geographic information system (GIS) model determines the precipitation-runoff relationships of the watershed and the Inundation hydraulic model calculates the flood depth and flow pattern in the floodplain area. Light detection and ranging The overall performance of hydrologic model during calibration was “very good fit” Model calibration based on the criterion of Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Model Efficiency, Percentage Bias and Root Mean Square Error – Observations Standard Deviation Ratio with the values of 0.87, -8.62 and 0.46, respectively. On the other hand, the performance of hydraulic model during error computation was “intermediate fit” using F measure analysis with a value of 0.56, using confusion matrix with 80.5% accuracy and the Root Mean Square Error of 0.47 meters. -
(OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers Over Tropical Cyclones Goal of Study
P1.37P197 Comparisons and Evaluations between the Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers over Tropical Cyclones Roger T. Edson, NOAA National Weather Service, Barrigada Guam Coverage and Availability of Scatterometer: OSCAT vs. ASCAT and WindSAT Case Studies of Different Tropical Cyclone Characteristics or OSCAT (~2400L) Goal of Study NOAA/NESDIS –’Manati Site’ KNMI – EUMETSAT site Typhoon Man-Yi (16W) development from a ASCAT depiction of the development and OSCAT View monsoon gyre north or the Marianas -Compare reliability, depiction and BYU Hi-Res OSCAT intensification of Typhoon Mawar (04W) accuracy over tropical cyclones -Find strengths and weaknesses -Assess comparative loss with QuikSCAT -Evaluate NRCS and BYU Hi-Res IR and OSCAT Winds TRMM 85h with OSCAT NRCS OSCAT Development was slow with a large light and variable wind center. At this products to assist analysis time winds were beginning to consolidate about one circulation center as Combine ASCAT A/B with either OSCAT better seen in the OSCAT NRCS and BYU Hi-Res images. or WindSAT to increase coverage -Use of integrated techniques, Sensor Characteristics especially with microwave Sensor/Sat QuikSCAT ASCAT A/B WindSAT OSCAT-2 48hr Structure and intensity between 31 May (25kt) and 2 Jun (70kt) TYPE Active Active Passive Active imagery AGENCY/re-Processed JPL/NESDIS ESA/KNMI US Navy India/KNMI LAUNCH/END 1999/Nov09(end) 2006/12 2003 2009 Typhoon Tembin (15W) approaching Japan SWATH (KM) 1800 2 X 550 ~1100 1836 The intensity of a tropical cyclone that has begun GAP (KM) 0 600 N/A N/A extra-tropical transition is often underestimated RESOLUTION (KM) 25 (12.5) 50 (25) 25 50 (25) Goal of Scatterometer Data for TC Analysis when intensity is solely based on the Dvorak SPEED (KT) 4-80 5-60 10-40 5-60? Technique. -
二零一七熱帶氣旋tropical Cyclones in 2017
176 第四節 熱帶氣旋統計表 表4.1是二零一七年在北太平洋西部及南海區域(即由赤道至北緯45度、東 經 100度至180 度所包括的範圍)的熱帶氣旋一覽。表內所列出的日期只說明某熱帶氣旋在上述範圍內 出現的時間,因而不一定包括整個風暴過程。這個限制對表內其他元素亦同樣適用。 表4.2是天文台在二零一七年為船舶發出的熱帶氣旋警告的次數、時段、首個及末個警告 發出的時間。當有熱帶氣旋位於香港責任範圍內時(即由北緯10至30度、東經105至125 度所包括的範圍),天文台會發出這些警告。表內使用的時間為協調世界時。 表4.3是二零一七年熱帶氣旋警告信號發出的次數及其時段的摘要。表內亦提供每次熱帶 氣旋警告信號生效的時間和發出警報的次數。表內使用的時間為香港時間。 表4.4是一九五六至二零一七年間熱帶氣旋警告信號發出的次數及其時段的摘要。 表4.5是一九五六至二零一七年間每年位於香港責任範圍內以及每年引致天文台需要發 出熱帶氣旋警告信號的熱帶氣旋總數。 表4.6是一九五六至二零一七年間天文台發出各種熱帶氣旋警告信號的最長、最短及平均 時段。 表4.7是二零一七年當熱帶氣旋影響香港時本港的氣象觀測摘要。資料包括熱帶氣旋最接 近香港時的位置及時間和當時估計熱帶氣旋中心附近的最低氣壓、京士柏、香港國際機 場及橫瀾島錄得的最高風速、香港天文台錄得的最低平均海平面氣壓以及香港各潮汐測 量站錄得的最大風暴潮(即實際水位高出潮汐表中預計的部分,單位為米)。 表4.8.1是二零一七年位於香港600公里範圍內的熱帶氣旋及其為香港所帶來的雨量。 表4.8.2是一八八四至一九三九年以及一九四七至二零一七年十個為香港帶來最多雨量 的熱帶氣旋和有關的雨量資料。 表4.9是自一九四六年至二零一七年間,天文台發出十號颶風信號時所錄得的氣象資料, 包括熱帶氣旋吹襲香港時的最近距離及方位、天文台錄得的最低平均海平面氣壓、香港 各站錄得的最高60分鐘平均風速和最高陣風。 表4.10是二零一七年熱帶氣旋在香港所造成的損失。資料參考了各政府部門和公共事業 機構所提供的報告及本地報章的報導。 表4.11是一九六零至二零一七年間熱帶氣旋在香港所造成的人命傷亡及破壞。資料參考 了各政府部門和公共事業機構所提供的報告及本地報章的報導。 表4.12是二零一七年天文台發出的熱帶氣旋路徑預測驗証。 177 Section 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE STATISTICS AND TABLES TABLE 4.1 is a list of tropical cyclones in 2017 in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea (i.e. the area bounded by the Equator, 45°N, 100°E and 180°). The dates cited are the residence times of each tropical cyclone within the above‐mentioned region and as such might not cover the full life‐ span. This limitation applies to all other elements in the table. TABLE 4.2 gives the number of tropical cyclone warnings for shipping issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2017, the durations of these warnings and the times of issue of the first and last warnings for all tropical cyclones in Hong Kong's area of responsibility (i.e. the area bounded by 10°N, 30°N, 105°E and 125°E). Times are given in hours and minutes in UTC. TABLE 4.3 presents a summary of the occasions/durations of the issuing of tropical cyclone warning signals in 2017. The sequence of the signals displayed and the number of tropical cyclone warning bulletins issued for each tropical cyclone are also given. -
Abstract Proceeding
1 The Proceedings for The 6th International Conference on Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Change August 19 - 21, 2013, Hong Kong Editors: Dr. Banghua Yan Dr. Xiaozhen Xiong Prof. Zhanqing Li Dr. Jingfeng Huang 2 EFFECTS OF AIR-SEA COUPLING ON THE BOREAL SUMMER INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN Ailan Lin1,2, Tim Li, Xiouhua Fu2, Jing-Jia Luo3, Yukio Masumoto3 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China 2. IPRC and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 3. Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan Abstract The effects of air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the eastward- and northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are investigated by comparing a fully coupled (CTL) and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean (pdIO) experiment using SINTEX-F coupled GCM. Air-sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of both the eastward and northward propagations of the BSISO. The maximum spectrum differences of the northward- (eastward-) propagating BSISO between the CTL and pdIO reach 30% (25%) of their respective climatological values. The enhanced eastward (northward) propagation is related to the zonal (meridional) asymmetry of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). A positive SSTA appears to the east (north) of the BSISO convection, which may positively feed back to the BSISO convection. In addition, air-sea coupling may enhance the northward propagation through the changes of the mean vertical wind shear and low-level specific humidity. The interannual variations of the TIO regulate the air-sea interaction effect. Air-sea coupling enhances (reduces) the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, positive Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and normal years (during positive IOD and negative IOB years). -
Downloaded 10/05/21 02:09 PM UTC 1426 WEATHER and FORECASTING VOLUME 29
DECEMBER 2014 W E I 1425 Surface Wind Nowcasting in the Penghu Islands Based on Classified Typhoon Tracks and the Effects of the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan CHIH-CHIANG WEI Department of Digital Content Designs and Management, Toko University, Pu-Tzu City, Chia-Yi County, Taiwan (Manuscript received 5 March 2014, in final form 21 September 2014) ABSTRACT The purposes of this study were to forecast the hourly typhoon wind velocity over the Penghu Islands, and to discuss the effects of the terrain of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan over the Penghu Islands based on typhoon tracks. On average, a destructive typhoon hits the Penghu Islands every 15–20 yr. As a typhoon approaches the Penghu Islands, its track and intensity are influenced by the CMR topography. Therefore, CMR complicates the wind forecast of the Penghu Islands. Six main typhoon tracks (classes I–VI) are classified based on typhoon directions, as follows: (I) the direction of direct westward movement across the CMR of Taiwan, (II) the direction of northward movement along the eastern coast of Taiwan, (III) the direction of northward movement traveling through Taiwan Strait, (IV) the direction of westward movement traveling through Luzon Strait, (V) the direction of westward movement traveling through the southern East China Sea (near northern Taiwan), and (VI) the irregular track direction. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) were used as the forecasting technique for predicting the wind velocity. A total of 49 typhoons from 2000 to 2012 were analyzed. Results showed that the ANFIS models provided high-reliability predictions for wind velocity, and the ANFIS achieved more favorable performance than did the MLPNN. -
Print Version
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (January 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for December 2017 1.1 In December 2017, Southeast Asia experienced northeast monsoon conditions with drier weather conditions over the northern ASEAN region, and rainy or wet weather conditions in the southern ASEAN region. Most of the rain during the month fell within the region bounded between 10oS and 10oN of the Equator. The most intense rain that fell during the month was over the central South China Sea and to the east of the Philippines. These areas coincided with the path of the tropical cyclones crossing the central South China Sea, north of Borneo after making landfall in the Philippines. The rainfall distribution for December 2017 is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Daily average rainfall for the ASEAN region Figure 2: Percent of Normal Rainfall for December 2017. in December 2017. (Source: JAXA Global Satellite The rainfall data may be less representative for areas with Mapping of Precipitation) a less dense rainfall network. 1.2 In the second half of December 2017, intensification of the high pressure system in northern Asia brought a monsoon surge or a sudden surge of cold winds over the South China Sea. As these strong northeasterly winds blew equatorward over the South China Sea, it gathered moisture and led to the development of persistent rain clouds over large parts of the equatorial region. The surges brought strong winds and spells of moderate to heavy rain to Borneo, Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. In particular, the eastern coastal states of Peninsular Malaysia and northern coast of Borneo were affected by heavy rainfall and intense floods arising from the monsoon surges. -
Global Catastrophe Recap
Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Global Catastrophe Recap December 2017 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 United States 4 Remainder of North America 4 South America 4 Europe 5 Middle East 5 Africa 5 Asia 6 Oceania 6 Appendix 7 Contact Information 17 Global Catastrophe Recap: December 2017 2 Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Executive Summary . Destructive wildfires in Southern California generate billion-dollar economic and insured losses . Cyclone Ockhi triggers extensive flooding in Sri Lanka and India . Two consecutive tropical cyclones, Kai-tak and Tembin, caused 440 fatalities in Philippines Southern California endured a destructive wildfire outbreak, which engulfed portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties during the month of December. The most significant was the Thomas Fire, which was noted to have destroyed more than 1,063 homes and was declared the largest wildfire in California’s modern history. Billion-dollar economic and insured losses were confirmed by the authorities as a result. Cyclone Ockhi impacted Sri Lanka and portions of India in early December. Heavy rainfall, associated with the cyclone, triggered extensive flooding and landslides. Tens of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed, while hundreds of people were killed. Unofficial reports indicated that hundreds of others may have been killed or missing, particularly in southern India. Economic losses were expected to reach well into the 100s of millions (USD) though unconfirmed reports indicated the losses could reach into the billions (USD). Two consecutive tropical cyclones impacted the Philippines between December 16 and 26. Kai-tak, locally also known as “Urduja”, made landfall in Eastern Samar province where it left more than 34,000 homes damaged or destroyed and at least 91 people dead. -
Characteristics and Causes of Extreme Rainfall Induced by Binary Tropical Cyclones Over China
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Online ISSN 1976-7951 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00201-6 Print ISSN 1976-7633 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Characteristics and Causes of Extreme Rainfall Induced by Binary Tropical Cyclones over China Mingyang Wang1,2 & Fumin Ren2 & Yanjun Xie3 & Guoping Li1 & Ming-Jen Yang4 & Tian Feng1,2 Received: 8 November 2019 /Revised: 28 March 2020 /Accepted: 29 March 2020 # The Author(s) 2020 Abstract Binary tropical cyclones (BTC) often bring disastrous rainfall to China. From the viewpoint of the extreme of the BTC maximum daily rainfall, the characteristics of BTC extreme rainfall (BTCER) during 1960–2018 are analyzed, using daily rainfall data; and some representative large-scale mean flows, in which the associated BTCs are embedded, are analyzed. Results show that the frequency of BTCER shows a decreasing trend [−0.49 (10 yr)−1] and is mainly distributed within the BTC heavy rainstorm interval (100 mm ≤ BTCER <250 mm). BTCER occurs mostly from July to September with a peak in August. Three BTCER typical regions— Minbei, the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and Taiwan—are identified according to the clustering of stations with high BTCER frequency and large BTCER. A further analysis of the 850-hPa BTC composite horizontal wind and water vapor flux over the PRD region shows the existence of two water vapor transport channels, which transport water vapor to the western tropical cyclone. In the first of these channels, the transport takes place via the southwest monsoon, which accounts for 58% of the total moisture, and an easterly flow associated with eastern tropical cyclone accounts for the remaining 42%. -
Research Article Numerical Analysis on the Effects of Binary Interaction Between Typhoons Tembin and Bolaven in 2012
Hindawi Advances in Meteorology Volume 2019, Article ID 7529263, 16 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/7529263 Research Article Numerical Analysis on the Effects of Binary Interaction between Typhoons Tembin and Bolaven in 2012 Zhipeng Xian and Keyi Chen School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, 610225 Chengdu, China Correspondence should be addressed to Keyi Chen; [email protected] Received 7 November 2018; Revised 14 February 2019; Accepted 26 February 2019; Published 3 April 2019 Academic Editor: Mario M. Miglietta Copyright © 2019 Zhipeng Xian and Keyi Chen. ,is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ,e binary interaction is one of the most challenging factors to improve the forecast accuracy of multiple tropical cyclones (TCs) in close vicinity. ,e effect of binary interaction usually results in anomalous track and variable intensity of TCs. A typical interaction type, one-way influence mode, has been investigated by many studies which mainly focused on the anomalous track and record- breaking precipitation, such as typhoons Morakot and Goni. In this paper, a typical case of this type, typhoons Tembin and Bolaven, occurred in the western North Pacific in August 2012, was selected to study how one typhoon impacts the track and intensity of the other one. ,e vortex of Tembin or Bolaven and the monsoon circulation were removed by a TC bogus scheme and a low-pass Lanczos filter, respectively, to carry out the numerical experiments. ,e results show that the presence of monsoon made the binary interaction more complex by affecting the tracks and the translation speeds of the TCs. -
The Paradox of the Salvage Zone: Examining the Philippine Coastal Adaptation Framework in the Light of Tropical Cyclones and Threats of Sea Level Rise
THE PARADOX OF THE SALVAGE ZONE: EXAMINING THE PHILIPPINE COASTAL ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK IN THE LIGHT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THREATS OF SEA LEVEL RISE Amiel Ian A. Valdez∗ Abstract Strong typhoons entering the Philippine area of responsibility are not only taking the lives, but also the properties and livelihood of the coastal populace who are mostly fisher folk. As such, these typhoons, along with the threat of sea level rise, catalyse climate displacement in the Philippines. In this paper, the author examines the security of tenure, particularly land and related rights, of these climate displaced persons, and the Philippines’ duty to realise these rights. The author argues that the Philippines, being a party to relevant climate change and human rights treaties, is bound to ensure that the climate displaced persons are not deprived of their property and possession, and that they shall have right to adequate standard of living. Similarly, the land and livelihood of coastal communities are protected by the constitutional right to property, as complemented by the Philippine Civil Code, and the constitutional right to a balanced and healthful ecology. Nevertheless, the author observes that there are gaps in the coastal and disaster laws of the Philippines. Specifically, these laws do not have concrete provisions to protect the property rights (land, housing, and livelihood) of persons who may be displaced by the government’s projects or measures regulating its coastal zones, particularly the so-called Salvage Zone. Further, some local government units are not capacitated to provide immediate resettlement and basic services in the event of category five typhoons. -
二零一七熱帶氣旋tropical Cyclones in 2017
=> TALIM TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2017 <SEP (), ! " Daily Positions at 00 UTC(08 HKT), :; SANVU the number in the symbol represents <SEP the date of the month *+ Intermediate 6-hourly Positions ,')% Super Typhoon NORU ')% *+ Severe Typhoon JUL ]^ BANYAN LAN AUG )% Typhoon OCT '(%& Severe Tropical Storm NALGAE AUG %& Tropical Storm NANMADOL JUL #$ Tropical Depression Z SAOLA( 1722) OCT KULAP JUL HAITANG JUL NORU( 1705) JUL NESAT JUL MERBOK Hong Kong / JUN PAKHAR @Q NALGAE(1711) ,- AUG ? GUCHOL AUG KULAP( 1706) HATO ROKE MAWAR <SEP JUL AUG JUL <SEP T.D. <SEP @Q GUCHOL( 1717) <SEP T.D. ,- MUIFA TALAS \ OCT ? HATO( 1713) APR JUL HAITANG( 1710) :; KHANUN MAWAR( 1716) AUG a JUL ROKE( 1707) SANVU( 1715) XZ[ OCT HAIKUI AUG JUL NANMADOL AUG NOV (1703) DOKSURI JUL <SEP T.D. *+ <SEP BANYAN( 1712) TALAS(1704) \ SONCA( 1708) JUL KHANUN( 1720) AUG SONCA JUL MERBOK (1702) => OCT JUL JUN TALIM( 1718) / <SEP T.D. PAKHAR( 1714) OCT XZ[ AUG NESAT( 1709) T.D. DOKSURI( 1719) a JUL APR <SEP _` HAIKUI( 1724) DAMREY NOV NOV de bc KAI-( TAK 1726) MUIFA (1701) KIROGI DEC APR NOV _` DAMREY( 1723) OCT T.D. APR bc T.D. KIROGI( 1725) T.D. T.D. JAN , ]^ NOV Z , NOV JAN TEMBIN( 1727) LAN( 1721) TEMBIN SAOLA( 1722) DEC OCT DEC OCT T.D. OCT de KAI- TAK DEC 更新記錄 Update Record 更新日期: 二零二零年一月 Revision Date: January 2020 頁 3 目錄 更新 頁 189 表 4.10: 二零一七年熱帶氣旋在香港所造成的損失 更新 頁 217 附件一: 超強颱風天鴿(1713)引致香港直接經濟損失的 新增 估算 Page 4 CONTENTS Update Page 189 TABLE 4.10: DAMAGE CAUSED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES IN Update HONG KONG IN 2017 Page 219 Annex 1: Estimated Direct Economic Losses in Hong Kong Add caused by Super Typhoon Hato (1713) 二零一 七 年 熱帶氣旋 TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2017 2 二零一九年二月出版 Published February 2019 香港天文台編製 香港九龍彌敦道134A Prepared by: Hong Kong Observatory 134A Nathan Road Kowloon, Hong Kong © 版權所有。未經香港天文台台長同意,不得翻印本刊物任何部分內容。 ©Copyright reserved.