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New Conceptual Model of Large-Scale Landslide The Second Global Summit of Research Institutes for Disaster Risk Reduction Development of a Research Road Map for the Next Decade March 19-20, 2015 New Conceptual Model of Large-Scale Landslide Reported by Chjeng Lun, Shieh Director, Disaster Prevention Research Center National Cheng Kung University - 2 - Idea Solution Modelized Conclusion Case Study Experiment Comparison Background 蘇拉 12 Saola typhoon 南瑪都 Nanmadol typhoon 11 梅姬 Megi typhoon 凡那比 10 Fanapi typhoon LSL & MSD LSL 芭瑪 Parma typhoon 莫拉克 09 Morakot 辛樂克 颱風 ( 08 ) Sinlaku typhoon 卡玫基 颱風 08 ( 08 ) Kalmaegi typhoon occur frequently. 聖帕 颱風 07 07 ( ) Sepat typhoon 馬莎 颱風 05 ( ) Masha typhoon MSD 海棠 颱風 05 ( 05 ) Haitang typhoon 艾利 颱風 04 ( ) Aere typhoon 敏督利颱風 04 04 ( ) Mindulle typhoon 納莉 颱風 LSL & 01 ( ) Nari typhoon 桃芝 颱風 01 ( 01 ) Toraji typhoon Sediment Disaster Sediment 象神 颱風 00 2000 ( ) Typhoon Xangsane Chi-Chi Earthquake 1999 賀伯颱風 ( 96 ) Herb typhoon 90 琳恩 颱風 ( 87 ) Lynn typhoon 80 畢莉 颱風 ( 76 ) Billie typhoon 70 葛樂禮颱風 ( 63 ) Gloria typhoon 60 溫妮颱風 53 ( ) Winnie typhoon 1950 Flooding Disaster National Cheng Kung TheUniversity, Department of Hydraulic and Ocean TAIWAN Engineering, To review historical disasters from 1950, To National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Typhoon Morakot Case Study • The storm turned into a typhoon on Aug. 4. • Rainfall started on Aug. 6. Idea • The eye of the typhoon left Taiwan from Taoyuan at 14:00 on Aug. 8. • The rainfall continued until Aug. 10. Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion -3- • Path of the center of Typhoon Morakot National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Disasters of Typhoon Morakot Case Study Alisan Station Long duration (91 hours) Idea High intensity (123 mm/hour) Large accumulated rainfall depth (3000 mm-72 hour) Experiment Broad extent (one-fifth of Taiwan was covered) Modelized • Sediment-related disasters in the mountain area located within the Solution range of precipitation > 1,000mm Comparison • Inundation area located at the downstream of rainfall center in Conclusion the plain area -4- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background The relationship between accumulative rainfall and duration of catastrophic typhoons Case Study Alisan Station Idea Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion -5- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Case Study Idea Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion • Shieh, 2012 -6- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background The scale and type of the disaster increasing with the frequent appearance of extreme weather Case Study Idea Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion -7- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Large-scale landslide and compound disaster become a new challenge Case Study • Area：202 ha Depth：80 meter Volume： 24 million m3 Idea Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Before Typhoon Morakot in Hsiaolin After Typhoon Morakot in Conclusion Village Hsiaolin Village (FORMOSAT-2) (FORMOSAT-2) -8- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Case Study Idea Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion -9- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background LESSONS FROM THE DISASTER OF HSIAOLIN VILLAGE Case Study • Compound Disaster, included shallow landslide, debris flow, flooding, large-scale landslide, natural dam break, Idea occurred in Hsiaolin village Experiment • The main disaster is caused by large-scale landslide. Modelized Solution Mitigation Strategies of Large-scale Landslide Disaster Comparison in Taiwan Conclusion -10- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background IDEA FOR MITIGATION STRATEGIES OF L.S.L. Case Study (6Ws1H) Idea Where Potential Area Experiment What Risk analysis (Influence Area) Why On-site monitoring Modelized When Forecast and Warning System Solution Who Evacuation Plan Comparison How Training, Drills, Education Conclusion -11- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background On-site monitoring Forecast and Warning System Case Study Idea Experiment Modelized Solution All the monitor result to setup the warning Comparison system, such as rainfall, groundwater level, surface deformation. Conclusion How to combine all the result together? -12- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background • To Review Landslide cases in Case Study typhoon Morakot, 2009 布唐布納斯溪 1399.8mm • Group A is classified as new born landslide, Idea and group B include enlarge case and A combine case B 1123.9mm Experiment • New Born Case 萬山 Cumulative rainfall >1,000 mm Modelized After rainfall peak near the turning point of accumulative Solution rainfall B A • Enlarge & Combine case Comparison Cumulative rainfall is about 300- 500 mm Conclusion Before rainfall peak -13- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Case Study Idea Case Study of Large-scale Landslide Experiment Modelized in Taiwan Solution Definition of Large-scale Landslide Comparison Area > 10 ha Depth > 10 m Conclusion 4 3 Volume > 10 m -14- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background • Fast-moving landslide was caused by Case Study typhoon. Idea • Hsiaolin Village, Kaohsiung County in 2009. Experiment • Time：August/06-10 (Typhoon Morakot) Modelized • Area of landslide：202 ha • Depth of landslide：80 m Solution • Slope： ° Comparison • Movementퟐퟐ Distance： 2000 m • Accumulative Rainfall：2583 mm Conclusion • Loose soil mass • With the imprint of groundwater -15- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background • Fast-moving landslide was caused by typhoon Case Study • Taimali River, Taitung County in 2009 Idea • Time：August/06-10 (Typhoon Morakot) Experiment • Area of landslide：290 ha • Depth of landslide：200 m Modelized • Slope： ° • Movementퟐퟐ Distance： 1000 m Solution • Accumulative Rainfall：1400 mm • Loose soil mass Comparison • With the imprint of groundwater Conclusion -16- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background • Slow-moving landslide was caused by rainfall Case Study • Lushan landslide, Nantou since 1994 Idea Experiment Modelized • Area of landslide：30 ha Solution • Depth of landslide：~100 m • Slope： ° Comparison • Mass movementퟐퟐ • With the imprint of groundwater Conclusion 廬山地滑監測及後續治理規劃，黎明工程，2003 -17- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background • Slow-moving landslide was caused by rainfall Case Study • Li-San landslide, Taichung, since 1990 Idea Experiment Modelized Solution • Area of landslide：230 ha • Depth of landslide：~50 m Comparison • Slope： ° • Movementퟐퟐ Distance：800 m Conclusion • With the imprint of groundwater 中華水土保持學報，颱風降雨期間梨山地滑區邊坡穩定性之數值評估，2008 -18- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Similarity of F.M.L and S.M.L. Case Study Shallow Landslide Large-scale Landslide Large-Scale Landslide (fast-moving landslide) (slow-moving landslide) (fast-moving landslide) Idea Experiment LIMI, 2003 Modelized The Experimental Forest, NTU(2012 yr.) Lushan landslide Hsiaolin Village(2009 yr.) Occurrence: 4 days Solution Occurrence: < 2 days(Typhoon Saola) Occurrence: For decades (Typhoon Morakot) without the groundwater layer with the imprint of groundwater with the imprint of groundwater Comparison Slope= 22 ~ 29 Slope = 24 ~ 26 Slope= 26 φ ≈ 25 φr ≈ 22 ~ 27 φ ≈ 21 ~ 25 r Conclusion i = 30 ~ 35 mm/hr(2005~6 yr.) ip = 99.5 mm/hr p ip =103 mm/hr P =1132 mm P = 820 mm (2006 yr) P = 258m3m -19- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Difference of F.M.L. and S.M.L. Case Study Idea S.M.L F.M.L Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion -20- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Safety Factor = Case Study 푅 퐹퐹 D−=− R(1 FS ) D = Net퐷 force acting on sliding block =Ma D: Driving Force D dFS R: Resistance Force Idea ⇒(1 −FS ) = a , where 1 −= FS ∆ t M dt M: Mass of sliding block D dFS ⇒=at ∆ Experiment M dt dFS ⇒∝a dt Modelized Solution ∆t dFS ∆t Comparison dt Conclusion -21- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background • The flow velocity of infiltration and groundwater is usually small, therefore, Case Study what’s reason causes the rapid decreasing in F.S.? • We are interesting in what kinds of interaction between infiltration and Idea groundwater will trigger sudden failure or creeping landslide. Experiment Modelized Solution Comparison Conclusion -22- National Cheng Kung University, The Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, TAIWAN Background Case I：Air escape from bottom Case III： Air escape from top Case Study z z 0.04 m Air Flow z Idea z0 0 Water Water z zG G Infiltration Layer Infiltration Layer Experiment zh zh Seepage 0.85 m Seepage Modelized Cavity Layer
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