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Can Taipei Plan for Resilience?

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Can Taipei Plan for Resilience? University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations 2015 Rebuild, Retreat, or Resilience: Can Taipei Plan for Resilience? Yu-Shou Su University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations Part of the Sustainability Commons, and the Urban Studies and Planning Commons Recommended Citation Su, Yu-Shou, "Rebuild, Retreat, or Resilience: Can Taipei Plan for Resilience?" (2015). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 1149. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1149 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1149 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Rebuild, Retreat, or Resilience: Can Taipei Plan for Resilience? Abstract Taiwan is ranked as the country most exposed to multiple hazards (The World Bank 2005). Taipei City is the capital city as well as the economic and political center of Taiwan. The United Nations report World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision places Taipei City third on the list of the worldâ??s top 10 urban areas exposed to three or more natural hazards, with the highest risk of cyclones, floods, and landslides. In order to gauge the vulnerabilities and damages of Taiwan and Taipei City, this research creates a natural disaster density indicator (NDDI) to conduct a comparative study of Taiwan, Japan, China, U.S.A., U.K., France, and the Netherlands over the past three decades. The results indicate that Taiwan has both the highest disaster occurrence and highest death toll among these seven countries. The Taipei case study, a chronology of policies implemented to prevent flooding, explains that costly engineering structures, rebuilding, and fortification against floodsv e entually created a false sense of security, which has encouraged more intensive residential and commercial developments in flood-prone areas, and led to a higher level of vulnerability. This research further simulates and evaluates the vulnerabilities of population, land value, properties, GDP, and critical facilities in three scenarios: heavy rainfall, typhoon conditions, and extreme weather rainfall, through the technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) by using ArcMap 10.2.2 software. The results indicate 40% of Taipei City is located in flood risk areas in an extreme weather scenario. This percentage is higher than other global cities such as Londonâ??s 15%, Tokyoâ??s 10%, and New York Cityâ??s 25%. Based on the 10% of total flooding areas above 0.5 meter, the vulnerable population is estimated at 200,000 people, or 7% of the total population. The GDP impact will be more than $28 billion. More than $67 billion of land value is vulnerable. A least one million subway passengers will be impacted each day. There is little evidence that the urban poor are particularly vulnerable to floods. On the contrary, some neighborhoods with high income households face a higher risk of floods. erV y few medical centers, oil and gas stations, and electrical power substations are located in flood-prone areas, but, a large number of public schools, administrative buildings, and major subway stations are susceptible. Additionally, the likelihood analysis of flooding in an extreme weather rainfall scenario concludes that the possibility will be five times that of the existing assumption with a flood in every 200 years. Thus, Taipei Cityâ??s infrequent once-in-two-century floods are likely to occur more frequently. Further, the 1% of Taipei metropolitan region flooding above 1 meter will possibly cost up to $ 1.5 billion in damages. Therefore, in the future, rather than strengthening and rebuilding costly structures, Taipei should focus on land-use and environmental planning for resilience. Urban policies should include environmentally responsible development in the face of continued population and economic growth, and being resilient regarding natural disasters. Most important is the need of a strong political commitment and leadership to initiate and implement urban policies toward resilience. In doing so, resilience can be achieved in Taipei. Degree Type Dissertation Degree Name Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Graduate Group City & Regional Planning First Advisor Eugenie L. Birch Keywords Resilience, Taipei, Urban Flood Resilience Subject Categories Environmental Sciences | Sustainability | Urban Studies and Planning This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1149 REBUILD, RETREAT, OR RESILIENCE: CAN TAIPEI PLAN FOR RESILIENCE? Yu-Shou Su A DISSERTATION in City and Regional Planning Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2015 Supervisor of Dissertation _______________________ Eugénie L. Birch, Chair of the Graduate Group in City and Regional Planning Graduate Group Chairperson _______________________ Eugénie L. Birch, Chair of the Graduate Group in City and Regional Planning Dissertation Committee Eugénie L. Birch, Chair of the Graduate Group in City and Regional Planning Thomas Daniels, Professor, City and Regional Planning, School of Design Chien-Yuan Lin, Dean of Environmental Design, Chinese Culture University; Professor Emeritus of the Graduate Institute of Building and Planning, National Taiwan University REBUILD, RETREAT, OR RESILIENCE: CAN TAIPEI PLAN FOR RESILIENCE? COPYRIGHT 2015 Yu-Shou Su ii DEDICATION To Cheryl Yu-Jui Shen and Angus Ai-Ge Su iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT Thanks be to God. I am so blessed to have had the opportunity to make my dream come true here at my beloved University of Pennsylvania. I visited Penn from Taiwan for the first time in my twenties. I became a Penn graduate student in my thirties, and then earned my Ph.D. degree in my forties. Penn has been an important part of my adult life. I am very grateful to my dear advisor, Professor Eugenie L. Birch. Her professionalism, enthusiasm, and encouragement have inspired me. Through her exceptional doctoral seminars in my first two years, I developed my research gradually. Without her encouragement, I could not have written my dissertation on campus alone in my third year. I learned everything from her. I would like to say, “Dearest Genie, thank you for giving me this wonderful experience to learn, grow, and love academia here at Penn. You are my inspiration, and the best mentor of my life”. I would like to thank the other members of my committee, Professor Thomas Daniels and Professor John Chien-Yuan Lin for their great support and their reviews of my dissertation. Thank you, Professor Daniels. I learned all about U.S.A. land use and environmental planning from your practical, pragmatic, and insightful classes. Thank you, Professor Lin. You are my role model in both my academic training and my governmental career. I appreciate your decade of support. PennDesign’s gorgeous faculties and their classes helped me develop my expertise in city and regional planning. Thank you, Dean Marilyn Jordan Taylor, Department Chair John Landis, Professor Dana Tomlin, Professor John C. Keene, Robert D. Yaro, Peter A. Angelides, Mark Alan Hughes, Megan S. Ryerson, Erick Guerra, and Eugene Brusilovskiy. I learned planning theories, methodologies, practices, and applications as well as received excellent GIS training. I also thank Kate Daniel and Roslynne Carter for your academic and administrative assistance. Moreover, I also thank Wharton School’s Professor Howard C. Kunreuther and Keith W. Weigelt for teaching me risk assessment and management. Moreover, I thank Director Anita Mastroieni and the great team of Penn’s Family Resource Center and Graduate Student Center for supporting my study and life. Further, I thank Penn’s Weingarten Learning Resources Center for providing me writing assistance. Thank you James D. Arrington. Finally, I thank the great team of Penn Institute of Urban Research for supporting my study. Thank you Genie, Susan Wachter, Amy Montgomery, Alon Abramson, Amanda Lloyd, and Laura Barron. I am so fortunate to have had a fabulous group of students in my program to share with. Thank you dear friends: Amy Lynch, Kirsten Kinzer, Katie Brinkley, Stuart Andreason, Zoe Warner, Theodore Eisenman, Meagan Ehlenz, Caroline Cheong, Benjamin Chrisinger, Mary Rocco, Simon Mosbah, Albert T. Han, Joshua Warner, Jumana Abdel Jawad, Amber Woodburn, William Fleming, Theodore Lim, Eliza Davenport Whiteman, Elise Harrington, Jae Min Lee, and Daniel Y. Suh. Thank you all for the inspiration and encouragement of my courses, exams, and defenses in the past three years. A special thanks to Mary, Caroline, Meagan, Ben, Simon, iv Albert, Joshua, Billy, Theo, and Amber for the great encouragement and support. Also thank you for having the regular Friday Sub-seminars at PennDesign’s Happy Hour or in the Center City. Studying with all of you will be my best memories. I would like to express my great appreciation to you all, and say, “Penn Planning Ph.D. family forever”. God has been with me in the U.S.A. “Thank you”, Taiwanese/American Fellowship Presbyterian Church (TAFPC) of New Jersey and Narberth Presbyterian Church (NPC) of Pennsylvania for your help, support, and prays. “Thank you” to TAFPC’s Samuel & Wenly Hsieh for accommodating my family when we started our new life in the U.S.A. “Thank you” to NPC’s Pastor Steve Weed and Dr. Debbie Watson for giving Cheryl, Angus, and me such a feeling of belonging while we lived in Wynnewood. My family enjoyed such a full life there. Thank you to Isabel Lally, Hugh Barrie, Margie Nathanson, Izumi Woolley, Diane Chen, Joseph Sun, Terri Weed, Maria Kaminstein, Jo-Anne Kaplan, George & Carol Corner, Charlie & Juen Choi, Sean & Charlene McGrew, Donald & Carrie Robinson, Simon & Cindy Hauger, Harold & Carol Heller, Tim & Debbi Hoops, David & Kimberly Ishmael, Jim & Thanh Kirkpatrick, Stan & Coleen LeQuire, Chuck & Joyce Lewis, and Nicholas & Alison Gibson. Thank you to Donna Carson for her help correcting my writing in the last mile of my dissertation. Every friend at NPC is my family’s angel. Every hug made me feel at home. I have the best memories of the NPC’s family.
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