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Research on the Framework of the Global Maritime Transport Indices in the Big Data Era

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Research on the Framework of the Global Maritime Transport Indices in the Big Data Era 博士論文 The dissertation for Phd degree of the University of Tokyo Research on the Framework of the Global Maritime Transport Indices in the Big Data Era （ ビッグデータ時代におけるグローバル 海運指数の構造に関する研究 ） Department: International Studies School: Frontier Science Phd Candidate: 趙一飛 Student ID: 47-117644 Supervisor: Tatsuo Yanagita 柳田 辰雄，Professor 東京大学 平成 29 年 7 月 Thanks After the tsunami attack and in the nuclear radiation of Fukushima accident in Spring 2011, I came to Kashiwa Campus of the University of Tokyo, started my study and research in Japan. After 6 years, I have studied all of my courses and almost finish my phd thesis in the Autunm 2016. At this time, I must write some words to share my feeling with the readers of this paper. Research is a kind of boring work when no idea to find the problem interested and its solution. It is also be a kind of exciting work when the solution is found. Insisting on reading is very important when no way to go. The wisdom of predecessors always brings surprising enlightenment. The encouragement from supervisor, teachers, friends and family is particularly precious at that time. So, first thanks is to Professor Tatsuo Yanagita 柳田辰雄, my supervisor. Without your kindly support and guide, I cannot finish the paper on time. Second thanks is to my wife and daughter, you never disturb me when I was reading the references and writing the paper. I had no time to accompany you to buy your clothes during these five years. Third thanks is to my colleague in Shanghai Jiao Tong University, especially to Professor JI Jianhua 季建華，Professor ZHU Daoli 朱道立 and Professor ZHU Qinghua 朱慶華, you were my powerful backing on work when I was in Japan. Fourth thanks to my lab mates WAN Yi 萬毅, YANG Dongming 杨東明 and others. You gave me so many help when I live in Tokyo. A special thanks is to Professor Zhang Xiang 张祥, Phd of Columbia University, former Deputy Minister of Commerce of China. The content of this paper was the part of state project he host. He encouraged me to study in the University of Tokyo and orders me to have the phd degree. And I have to say thanks to Mr. Chris Hughes, the deputy manager of the market department in Great China Area of Lloyd‘s Register. This paper can be read and understand easily based on your careful check for the spelling and grammar. Time always passed so quickly. After six years, I had learned not only the methodology of research, but also the opinion of globalization. I listened and discussed the global issues with classmates and faculties from different countries, especially in the department of international study, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences. This will strongly support my further research in China. China needs more and more global view research on economics and management science. Last and very important, I feel deeply the friendship from Japanese people. I cannot say Japanese very well. But I never feel inconvenience when I was in Japan. Salesmen in stores, ticket men in train stations and strangers on road always gave me smile and help when I felt confusing. Kashiwa, Ginkgo and Sakura, I love you. Synopsis With the development of communication technology, the big data became a hot topic in the world. Many new concepts appear not only on internet but also in research papers like as e-business platform, internet plus, big data, smart society or smart city, etc. UN Global Pulse handles many projects to promote big data technology. The Whitehouse of US announced a “Big Data Research and Development Initiative”. The governments of UK, Australia, Japan and China also took their actions in this area. Some think tanks as IBM, Oracle. PwC, etc. are making research and development of big data products for public service and business. The global maritime transport industry carries over 80 percentage of international trade goods among people and communities all over the world. Waterborne transport is the most efficient and cost-effective method of goods transportation, providing a dependable, low-cost means of transporting goods globally, facilitating commerce and helping to create prosperity among nations and peoples. The prosperity of global economy is strongly related with the development of global maritime transportation market. The bulk market, the tanker market and the container liner market are the three main sub-markets of the global maritime transport market. Each of them has the special regular pattern. So the BDI, the Clarksea Index and the CCFI, etc. are developed. But they are not enough. Based on the market structure analysis and economic index theory, this paper outlined the indices framework of the global maritime transport market that includes three series of indices: the prosperity index, freight index and earning index. The prosperity index illustrates the investment value of the market, and the freight index indicates freight rate change of the market, earning index show the possibility of the market. We believe that not only the whole maritime transport market needs a prosperity index, but also the bulk market, tanker market, liner market, etc. need their prosperity index as their asynchronization. Meanwhile, as the shortage of data sources, there is not a global container liner freight in the market. The aim of this research is to find the ways to set up the prosperity index for global maritime transport market and the global container liner freight index. After researching on the plenty results of the NBER and many economists on business cycle indices, compared with the character of global maritime transport market, the Prosperity Index of the Global Maritime Transport Market (PIGMT) can be calculated with the data set of international trade indicators, freight indices, fuel price indices, capacity of fleet. Collecting the many data of 27 indicators from January 2000 to December 2015, changing them to monthly data, putting them in the equations in the algorithm, the PIGMT for 16 years was born. Compared with the actual situation of the large scale shipping companies, the PIGMT can be recognized to reflect the company's profitability. Based on a comparative analysis with the existing container freight indices, the method of integrating the framework with the use of data from e-booking platforms and illustrate the reason that the new index can provide more insightful information for shippers. This framework can be applied to have a daily Shanghai container freight index by combining data sources from the platforms linked to the Shanghai port. By implementing the index to a risk analysis problem, The dissertation for Phd degree of the University of Tokyo numerical results can be used to show the Daily Container Freight Index (DCFI) potential position in real investments for container liner markets. The key points of this paper are: ⑴The global maritime transport market is borderless. So every investment in this market is borderless. Investors just concern the global index but local index. Local freight index is only useful for shippers and carriers in local market. ⑵For investor, the profit of company is more important than revenue. So the prosperity index can give the situation more correctly than freight index for investor as the freight rate just indicate the revenue of shipping company but cost. ⑶The business cycle theory can be used in global maritime transport market as it also is a cycle market. ⑷The PIGMT can be created by composite index method. ⑸With the action of the big data strategy plan, more and more freight indices can be created as the DCFI. In big data era, the PIGMT will be more accurate. Main contributions of this paper are: ⑴Proved only freight index is not enough for investors, prosperity index is needed in global maritime transport market. ⑵Designed the framework of data products of the global maritime transport market. ⑶Designed the algorithm of the PIGMT according to the methodology of business cycle index, and tested its correction. The result is reliability. ⑷Designed the algorithm of the DCFI based on e-booking platform. Key Words: prosperity indices, freight index, global economy, maritime transport, business cycle Abbreviations 3PL Third Party Logistics 40HQ 40 feet high cube AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process BAF Bunker Adjustment Factor BCI Baltic Capesize Index BDI Baltic Dry Index BDTI Baltic Dirty Tanker Index BE Baltic Exchange BHP Broken Hill Proprietary Billiton Ltd. BIMCO Baltic International Maritime Committee BLP Bloomberg Limited Partnership BPI Baltic Panamax Index CAF Currency Adjustment Factor CCFI China Container Freight Index CCIEE China Center for International Economic Exchanges CEMAC China Economic Monitoring & Analysis Center CFS Container Freight Station CRS Clarkson Research Service Ltd. CTI Container Throughput Index DCFI Daily Container Freight Index FEU Forty feet Equivalent Unit FFA Forward Freight Agreements FPI Food Price Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross Nation Products GP container The container for general purpose GPS Global Positioning System HR Howe Robinson：a UK-based ship broker HSBC The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation IACS International Association of Classification Societies IBM International Business Machines Corporation Inter-capital：a UK-based leading markets operator and provider of post ICAP trade risk mitigation and information services ICE Intercontinental Exchange ICT Information & Communications Technology IEI International Economic Indicator System INMASAT International Maritime Satellite Organization KG Kommandit Gesellschaft (one of Germany Shipping Funding) LNG Liquefied
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