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Retail, Leisure and Three Centres Study Retail, Leisure and Three Centres Study Retail Floorspace Capacity Update 2016 St Catherine's Court Berkeley Place North East Lincolnshire Council Bristol BS8 1BQ T: +44 (0)8449 02 03 04 September 2016 F: +44 (0)117 988 5344 gva.co.uk Contents Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 2. The Basis for the Updated Retail Floorspace Capacity Forecasts ................................................... 2 3. The Updated Retail Floorspace Capacity Forecasts ...................................................................... 10 4. Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 15 Appendices Appendix I Convenience Goods Assessment Appendix II Comparison Goods Assessment Appendix III Study Area Plan gva.co.uk North East Lincolnshire Council Retail Floorspace Capacity Update 2016 1. Introduction Scope and Purpose 1.1 This report has been prepared by Bilfinger GVA (‘GVA’) in response to an instruction by North East Lincolnshire Council (‘the Council’) to prepare an update to the retail floorspace capacity forecasts contained within the North East Lincolnshire Retail, Leisure and Three Centres Study published in June 2013 (‘the 2013 study’). The 2013 study was prepared in order to act as an evidence base document for the emerging North East Lincolnshire Local Plan and contained a comprehensive examination of the health of the three main centres in North East Lincolnshire (Grimsby, Cleethorpes and Immingham) along with an assessment of shopping patterns and the capacity for additional retail floorspace in each of the main centres by 2030. 1.2 Since the completion of the 2013 study there have been a number of changes in circumstance which have prompted the Council to commission an update to the original retail floorsapce capacity forecasts. These changes of circumstance include the publication of new population and retail expenditure forecasts; changes in circumstances regarding retail commitments across North East Lincolnshire and a change in the end date for the Local Plan (now 2032). 1.3 As a consequence, this report provides an updated set of retail floorspace capacity forecasts for the main settlements in North East Lincolnshire, for both convenience and comparison goods floorspace, taking into account the above changes in circumstance and which are explained in more detail later in this document. Contents of Report 1.4 The remainder of this report is structured in the following manner: Section 2 outlines the basis for the updated retail floorspace capacity forecasts, including the sources of the latest datasets, assumptions used and changes since the 2013 Retail Study; Section 3 describes the updated forecasts for convenience and comparison goods floorspace for Grimsby, Cleethorpes and Immingham; and In Section 4, we summarised the results of the updated floorspace capacity assessment. 1.5 All plans and statistical information referred to in the main text of this report can be found in appendices contained at the rear of this document. September 2016 gva.co.uk 1 North East Lincolnshire Council Retail Floorspace Capacity Update 2016 2. The Basis for the Updated Retail Floorspace Capacity Forecasts Introduction 2.1 This section outlines our updated assessment of quantitative need for retail floorspace in across North East Lincolnshire, including convenience and comparison goods shopping provision in each of the three key settlements. It outlines the various assumptions and data inputs which have been adopted, including (where applicable) their source and/or justification. Where applicable, we also explain the differences in data sources/assumptions used by the quantitative assessment in the 2013 study and this current assessment. The Structure of the Quantitative Assessment Tables (Appendices I & II) 2.2 The set of quantitative need assessment tables informing this study are contained in appendices I and II at the rear of this report. The convenience goods floorspace assessment is contained in Appendix I whilst the comparison goods assessment is contained in Appendix II. 2.3 The convenience goods assessment at Appendix I is structured in the following manner: Table 1 – population forecasts Table 2 – per capita expenditure forecasts Table 3 – total available retail expenditure forecasts Tables 4a & 4b – main and top-up food shopping expenditure Tables 5a & 5b – main food shopping market shares and turnovers of convenience shopping facilities Tables 6a-6b – top-up food shopping market shares and turnover of convenience shopping facilities Table 7 – total turnover and market share of convenience goods shopping facilities Table 8a – benchmark turnover of convenience goods facilities in North East Lincolnshire Table 8b – turnover of convenience goods commitments Table 9a – tourism expenditure Tables 10-12 – convenience goods floorspace capacity assessments for Grimsby, Cleethorpes and Immingham. 2.4 The comparison goods assessment at Appendix II is structured in the following manner: September 2016 gva.co.uk 2 North East Lincolnshire Council Retail Floorspace Capacity Update 2016 Table 1 – population forecasts Table 2 – breakdown of comparison goods per capita expenditure forecasts by goods category Table 3 – total comparison goods expenditure per capita Tables 4a-4d – total available comparison goods expenditure, 2016-2032 Tables 5-17 – market share and turnover levels for each comparison goods category Table 18 – overall turnover and market share of main comparison goods shopping destinations across North East Lincolnshire and beyond Tables 19a & 19b – existing comparison goods floorspace in North East Lincolnshire and comparison goods commitments. Tables 20a-20c – tourism expenditure in North East Lincolnshire Tables 21a-21d – comparison goods floorspace capacity in Grimsby, Lincolnshire and Immingham. Study Area 2.5 In order to provide consistency with the 2013 study, we have used the same study area as the previous assessment. This area is shown on the plan at Appendix III and is split into 9 zones covering different parts of the North East Lincolnshire administrative area and surrounding administrative areas. Forecasting Dates 2.6 The start date for this quantitative assessment is 2016 (the current year) and replaces the previous start date of 2013. For the future, we have prepared forecasts for 2021, 2026 and 2032, in order to cover the period for the North East Lincolnshire Local Plan. Catchment Population 2.7 In line with the 2013 study, we have obtained base population data for each of the 9 study area zones from Experian. This base data is for 2011 and draws upon the results of the 2011 Census. 2.8 However, in a departure from the 2013 study, we have, for Zones 1-5 of the study area, utilised the contents of the ‘Demographic Analysis & Forecasts’ report prepared by Edge Analytics for the Council, dated July 2015 (‘the 2015 Edge forecasts’). The 2015 Edge forecasts update the housing and population forecasts contained within the 2013 Strategic Housing Market September 2016 gva.co.uk 3 North East Lincolnshire Council Retail Floorspace Capacity Update 2016 Assessment (‘SHMA’) and will inter alia act as an evidence base document for the emerging Local Plan. 2.9 Zones 1-5 of the study area (see Appendix III) cover the administrative area of North East Lincolnshire and we have taken the district-wide forecasts in the 2015 Edge forecasts and distributed them on a proportionate basis accordingly to the likely delivery of new housing across North East Lincolnshire. This pattern of distribution has been agreed with North East Lincolnshire officers. 2.10 Beyond the 2015 Edge forecasts, we have, for those parts of zones 4 and 5 which fall outside of the North East Lincolnshire administrative area, plus zones 6-9, adopted Experian’s population forecasts for the period 2011-2032. Price Basis 2.11 All monetary values in this report are in constant 2011 prices, unless otherwise stated, so as to exclude the effects of price inflation and be consistent with the data contained in the 2013 Study. Per Capita Expenditure 2.12 For this updated assessment, we have obtained up-to-date estimates of per capita retail expenditure on convenience and comparison goods from Experian, for each of the study area zones. The data which has been obtained is for the year 2014, originally expressed in 2014 prices (but re-based to 2011 prices in order to be consistent with the 2013 study). 2.13 In order to bring the per capita spending levels up to the base year for the assessment (2014) and then across the assessment period (2015-2032) we have followed these assumptions: Convenience goods expenditure. ― 2015 = -0.4% ― 2016 = -0.2% ― 2017 = +0.1% ― 2018 & 2019 = -0.1%pa ― 2020 = -0.2% ― 2021 & 2022 = -0.3% pa ― 2023 = -0.1% ― 2024 = 0% ― 2025-2031 = -0.1% pa September 2016 gva.co.uk 4 North East Lincolnshire Council Retail Floorspace Capacity Update 2016 ― 2032 = 0% Comparison goods expenditure. ― 2015 = +4.7% ― 2016 = +2.4% ― 2017 = +2.1% ― 2018 = +1.8% ― 2019 = +2.1% ― 2020 = +2.5% ― 2021 = +3.1% ― 2022 = +2.9% ― 2023 & 2024 = +3.4% pa ― 2025 = +3.2% ― 2026 = +3.1% ― 2027 = +3.3% ― 2028 = +3.1% ― 2029 = +3.3% ― 2030 = +3.4% ― 2031 = +3.3% ― 2032 = +3.5% 2.14 These forecasts have been provided by Experian in their Retail Planner Briefing Note 13 (2015) and take into account the influence of special forms of trading (see
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