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Clean Energy, Transportation and Storage Clean energy, transportation and storage EURELECTRIC Brussels 6 December 2017 Michael Liebreich Founder and CEO Liebreich Associates Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations – 2017 160GW 160.00 500.00 140.00 400.00 120.00 $349bn 88GW $300 billion100.00 300.00 $317bn $315bn $291bn $287bn Approx 80.00 $276bn $269bn $290bn$258bn (estimate) 200.00 $205bn $207bn 60.00 $175bn 40.00 100.00 20GW $128bn $88bn 20.00 $62bn 0.00 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. 1 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Unsubsidised clean energy world records June 2016 (EURELECTRIC Vilnius) Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: UAE Country: Morocco Country: Denmark Bidder: Masdar/DEWA Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall Signed: May 2016 Signed: 2016 Signed: December 2015 Construction: 2018 Construction: 2018 Construction: 2019 Price: US$ 2.99 c/kWh Price: US$ 3.0 c/kWh Price: US$ 5.3 c/kWh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images: Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Electrek 2 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Unsubsidised clean energy world records June 2017 (EURELECTRIC Estoril) Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Mexico Country: Morocco Country: Denmark Bidder: FRV Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall Signed: 2016 Signed: 2016 Signed: December 2015 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2018 Construction: 2019 Price: US$ 2.69 c/kWh Price: US$ 3.0 c/kWh Price: US$ 5.3 c/kWh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images: Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Electrek 3 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Unsubsidised clean energy world records December 2017 (EURELECTRIC Brussels) Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Saudi Arabia Country: India Country: Germany Bidder: Masdar Bidder: ReNew Power Bidder: DONG/EnBW Signed: 2017 Signed: 2017 Signed: 2016 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2024 Price: US$ 1.79 c/kWh* Price: US$ 2.0 c/kWh Merchant Price: US$ 4.9 c/kWh * Headline figure only - may include elements of subsidy, price support or price escalation; not final Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images: Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Electrek 4 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Wind and solar contribution to global power generation 4% 16% 34% 100% Wind Solar 90% Solar Other RE Wind 80% Wind Nuclear Nuclear Other RE 70% O Oil 60% il Nuclear Other RE 50% Gas Oil Nuclear 40% Gas 30% Gas 20%Coal Coal Coal 10% Coal 0% IEA NPS 2014 IEA NPS 2040 BNEF NEO 2040 PrimaryElectricity Energy Electricity Electricity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 5 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Evolving structure of power supply California First week of May First week of May First week of May 2012 (actual) 2017 (actual) 2030 (modelled) Source: CAISO OASIS; CEC proposed IRP; LM Power; CESA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Global cumulative storage deployments by country GW Other 140 South Korea 120 Australia 100 United Kingdom 80 Germany 60 India 40 Japan 20 China 0 United States 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Annual investment in energy storage (real 2017 $) $ billion 20 19.4 18 16 14.0 EMEA 14 11.7 12 11.0 9.3 10 APAC 7.1 8 6.0 6 4.7 3.5 4.0 4 2.7 2.9 3.1 AMER 1.7 2.0 2 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Europe, Middle East and Africa cumulative deployments by geography GW Other 40 35 Italy 30 France 25 Iberia 20 U.K. 15 EU - West 10 5 MENA 0 Germany 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Cumulative storage deployments Based on power output Based on energy capacity GW GWh Transmission Transmission 140 350 120 Distribution 300 Distribution 100 Peaking 250 Short duration balancing 80 Short duration 200 Peaking balancing 60 RE integration 150 RE integration 40 100 C&I C&I 20 50 Residential Residential 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Global lithium-ion demand by market segment Annual GWh 1,400 Electric 1,200 vehicles 1,000 800 Consumer 600 goods 400 200 Stationary 0 storage 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Assumes 100% of stationary is lithium-ion. 11 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich BEV model availability, 2008-20 Jaguar Tesla VW I.D.* Land Rover Toyota Trumpchi VW I.D. CROZZ Defender RAV4 GS4 I-Pace pickup* BMW i5 SUVs/Trucks Mitsubishi eX Volvo 40.2* Tesla Tesla M-B EQ VW Model Y* Model X Chehejia Audi E-tron Budd-e M-B B-Class BYD e6 NIO ES8* SUV* Quattro Porsche E-sport Renault DeZir Qianto Q50 Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster Tesla Model S Sports cars Tesla Roadster* M-B SLS eDrive Hyundai Ioniq Aston Martin GLM G4 NIO EP9 Audi R8 E-tron Exagon Furtive Mahindra eVerito RapidE Geely Emgrand NIO EVE ChangAn SAIC E-Lavida Tesla Model 3 LeEco LeSEE Eado Mullen 700e Lucid Air Sedans CODA EV Audi E-tron Faraday Honda Clarity BAIC EU260 Sportback JAC iEV4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 FF91 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 M-B E-Cell BlueOn VW e-Golf Chevy Bolt VW I.D. Hatchbacks Chevy Spark Honda Fit Renault Zoe ZE Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Nissan Leaf 2* BMW mini e Fiat 500e VW Mitsubishi i-MiEV Runabouts e-Up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Kandi Panda Smart Bollore Source: Bloomberg New Energy Renault Twizy ForTwo Bluesummer Ford Transit VW e-Bulli 2008200920102012201320142015201620172018201920202011 Finance, Images various. BYD T3 Nissan NV200 Tata Smith Edison Notes: Not exhaustive. Small vans IRIS (*) Range is estimate Peugeot Partner ChangAn EM80 M-B Vito Renault Kangoo VW I.D. BUZZ 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350+ miles range per charge 12 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Commercial EV models – 2022 Tesla Semi 13 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich @mliebreich Electric city bus models by 2020 Number of passengers 200 Bozankaya Sileo S25 150 VDL Citea SLFA-181 BYD 18M Solaris Urbino 18 ADL Enviro200EV VanHool Exqii.City 18M VDL Citea SLF120 Optare Metrodecker Solaris Urbino 12 Caetano eCobusz Linkker 12+ Bluebus 12m 100 Ebusco 2.1 SOR EBN 11 Ursus Smile 10 Volvo 7900 Electric Caetano eCity Gold BYD 12M SOR EBN 10.5 Temsa Avenue Ursus Ekovolt New Flyer Xcelsior Dancerbus Dancer Skoda Perun HE Skoda Perun HP CHARGE™ BYD 10.8MBozankaya Sileo S12 Proterra Catalyst FC Hunan CRRC 10M Irizar i2e HEULIEZ GX337Electron E19 Rampini E120 Ursus Smile 8.5 Solaris Urbino 8.9LE Proterra Catalyst E2 Yutong E12LF Temsa MD9 Optare Versa 50 Tata Motors VDL Citea LLE99 ALSTON Aptis Hunan CRRC 8M Evopro Modulo C68e Optare Solo Otokar Electra Rampini E60 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Range (km) Source: Zeus, manufacturer websites 14 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Chinese electric bus sales 2011 – 2016 Units 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Full electric Plug-in Hybrid Source: Cleantechnica 15 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Battery pack costs to fall another 70% by 2030 $/kWh Unsubidised sticker price crossover with ICEs 1200 expected from ~ 2025 1000 800 600 400 $109/kWh $73/kWh 200 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 16 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich BNEF Electric vehicle outlook to 2040 Annual global light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet million vehicles million cars on road 140 1,800 120 1,600 1,400 100 54% 1,200 80 43% 1,000 60 800 33% 24% 600 19% 40 400 8% 7% 20 2% 3% 200 1% 0 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ICE sales EV sales ICE fleet EV fleet Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 2017 17 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Asia dominates lithium-ion battery manufacturing Commissioned annual capacity 投产的年产量 116,000 MWh 3% China 12% Korea 15% 54% U.S. Japan 16% Other Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 18 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Battery manufacturing capacity will more than double by 2021 Commissioned and announced annual capacity 投产和宣布的年产量 313,000 MWh +197,000 MWh 4% 4% China 15% Korea 7% U.S. 70% Japan Other Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 19 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich Lithium and cobalt prices have soared – will it last? China Shanghai Cobalt Lithium hydroxide $ / metric ton $ / metric ton 80,000 25,000 70,000 20,000 60,000 15,000 50,000 40,000 10,000 30,000 5,000 20,000 0 10,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 Asia China 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Europe North America Source: Antaike Information Development Co., Bloomberg Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 20 December 6, 2017 EURELECTRIC Brussels -Storage @mliebreich 21 actual spot deals. Consistent monthly data collection using the Spot Price Index began in May 2009. Mayin beganIndex Price Spot the usingcollection data monthly Consistent deals.
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