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2003 Economic Background

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2003 Economic Background 2003 ECONOMIC BACKGROUND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE TREASURY BUREAU GOVERNMENT OF THE HONG KONG SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGION March 2004 CONTENTS Paragraphs CHAPTER 1: OVERALL VIEW Overall situation 1.1 - 1.12 The external sector 1.13 - 1.21 Domestic demand 1.22 - 1.28 Implications of the preliminary GDP figures for the economy 1.29 - 1.32 The Government account 1.33 - 1.35 The property market 1.36 - 1.42 The labour market 1.43 - 1.46 Prices 1.47 - 1.49 The financial sector 1.50 - 1.54 CHAPTER 2: THE EXTERNAL SECTOR Major external influences 2.1 - 2.6 Overall visible and invisible trade situation 2.7 - 2.14 Visible trade Total exports of goods 2.15 - 2.28 Re-exports 2.29 - 2.32 Domestic exports 2.33 - 2.34 Outward processing trade 2.35 - 2.37 Imports of goods 2.38 - 2.39 Retained imports 2.40 - 2.43 Invisible trade Exports of services 2.44 - 2.47 Imports of services 2.48 - 2.51 Overall balance of payments 2.52 - 2.54 CHAPTER 3: THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY Net output or value added by major economic sector 3.1 - 3.4 Local manufacturing output 3.5 - 3.6 Service sector receipts 3.7 - 3.8 Property 3.9 - 3.22 Building and construction 3.23 - 3.29 Land 3.30 - 3.33 Electricity and gas 3.34 - 3.35 Internal transport 3.36 - 3.37 External transport 3.38 - 3.41 Tourism 3.42 - 3.47 Telecommunications 3.48 - 3.50 CHAPTER 4: THE FINANCIAL SECTOR Overall financial market situation 4.1 Exchange rates 4.2 - 4.4 Interest rates 4.5 - 4.7 Deposits and money supply 4.8 - 4.12 Hong Kong dollar external claims and liabilities of authorized 4.13 - 4.14 institutions Loans and advances 4.15 - 4.19 Banks and other deposit-taking institutions 4.20 - 4.24 Insurance 4.25 The debt market 4.26 - 4.30 The stock, futures and gold markets 4.31 - 4.39 Unit trusts and mutual funds 4.40 - 4.42 CHAPTER 5: THE LABOUR SECTOR Overall labour market situation 5.1 - 5.5 Profile of unemployment and underemployment 5.6 - 5.10 Demand for and supply of labour 5.11 - 5.12 Profile of employment 5.13 - 5.17 Vacancies 5.18 - 5.21 Earnings and wages 5.22 - 5.30 CHAPTER 6: PRICES Consumer prices 6.1 - 6.7 Import prices 6.8 - 6.11 Prices of key inputs 6.12 Prices of local manufacturing output 6.13 Prices of output in selected service sectors 6.14 Export prices 6.15 - 6.16 Terms of trade 6.17 GDP deflator 6.18 CALENDAR OF EVENTS OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE HONG KONG ECONOMY IN 2003 STATISTICAL APPENDIX CHAPTER 1 : OVERALL VIEW Overall situation 1.1 The Hong Kong economy went through a sharp gyration during the course of 2003. Continuing the revival impetus in late 2002, the economy grew quite strongly at the beginning of 2003. The growth was abruptly derailed by the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)(1) in the second quarter. Yet overall economic activity staged a speedy and broad-based recovery in the third quarter after the waning of SARS, and the upswing spilled well into the fourth quarter upon a further lift in local sentiment. Thus, even with the profound setback caused by SARS during the year, the Hong Kong economy still attained an appreciable growth for 2003 as a whole, which was better than that in 2002. 1.2 In the external sector, inbound tourism and the travel-related sectors were badly shattered by the spread of SARS in the second quarter of 2003, yet bounced back swiftly in the third quarter and distinctly more in the fourth quarter. The remarkable turnaround was driven by a strong pick-up in visitor arrivals from the mainland of China (the Mainland), especially after the launch of the Individual Visit Scheme in late July(2). As to merchandise exports and offshore trade, they both displayed highly robust growth throughout 2003, bolstered by continued hectic growth in the Mainland economy, a visible pick-up in the global economy following the end of the war on Iraq, as well as a surge in intra-regional trade. Enhanced competitiveness of Hong Kong’s exports, underpinned by distinct weakening in the US dollar and further domestic cost adjustments, as well as deriving from increasing competitiveness of Mainland products in the world market, rendered an additional boost to the export performance. 1.3 In the domestic sector, consumer spending was likewise severely hit by SARS in the second quarter of 2003, but was progressively resurrected in the third and fourth quarters. Consumer sentiment appeared especially upbeat towards the end of the year, boosted by the rally in the local stock market, a more active property market, and steady improvement in the overall employment situation. Investment spending on machinery and equipment bounced back to a notable growth in the latter part of 2003, on the back of improved economic /conditions ….. 1 conditions and brighter business outlook especially after the signing of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between Hong Kong and the Mainland(3). Building and construction output however was weak all through. 1.4 For 2003 as a whole, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(4) grew by 3.3% in real terms, up from the 2.3% growth in 2002. On a year-on-year comparison, GDP leaped by 4.5% in real terms in the first quarter of 2003, before relapsing to a 0.5% decline in the second quarter upon the spread of SARS. Yet GDP bounced up strongly to a 4.0% growth in the third quarter, and further to a 5.0% growth in the fourth quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison(5), GDP fell by 0.5% and 2.6% respectively in real terms in the first and second quarters of 2003, yet rebounded sharply to increases by 6.6% in the third quarter and 1.5% in the fourth quarter. /Diagram 1.1 ….. 2 Diagram 1.1 Gross Domestic Product (a) Annual profile Percent 14 12 10 8 Rate of change 6 in real terms 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (b) Quarterly profile Percent 16 14 Year-on-year rate of 12 change in real terms 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter rate of -4 change in real terms -6 -8 -10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 /Table 1.1 ….. 3 Table 1.1 Gross Domestic Product and its main expenditure components and the main price indicators (year-on-year rate of change (%)) 2002# 2003+ 2002 2003 Q1# Q2# Q3# Q4# Q1# Q2# Q3# Q4+ Change in real terms of GDP and its main expenditure components (%) Private consumption -1.2 * -0.1 -2.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.8 -3.5 1.6 3.6 expenditure(^) Government consumption 2.4 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.5 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.5 5.6 expenditure Gross domestic fixed -4.3 -0.1 -11.8 -0.2 -4.3 -0.7 3.5 -5.7 -0.6 2.5 capital formation of which : Building and construction 1.2 -6.9 -3.2 7.6 8.2 -6.2 -3.5 -8.4 -6.7 -9.3 Machinery, equipment and -9.1 6.1 -19.7 -6.7 -12.1 3.2 11.9 -2.0 4.9 10.2 computer software Total exports of goods 8.7 14.2 -2.4 5.9 11.5 18.4 19.1 14.3 10.0 14.7 Re-exports 11.0 16.3 -1.4 8.4 13.7 22.2 22.3 17.0 11.5 16.0 Domestic exports -11.2 -7.3 -11.1 -13.6 -7.5 -12.9 -12.0 -12.6 -5.2 -0.2 Imports of goods(a) 7.9 13.1 -4.0 6.0 10.8 18.2 18.8 10.9 8.2 15.7 Exports of services(^) 12.2 5.5 6.3 9.1 14.0 18.1 12.7 -12.0 7.8 11.8 Imports of services 0.2 -4.4 -0.7 -3.8 2.0 3.4 -3.9 -19.6 0.5 4.2 Gross Domestic Product 2.3 3.3 -0.6 0.8 3.4 5.1 4.5 -0.5 4.0 5.0 Change in the main price indicators (%) GDP deflator -3.0 -5.1 -2.3 -2.2 -3.1 -4.1 -4.6 -5.4 -5.7 -4.8 Composite Consumer Price -3.0 -2.6 -2.6 -3.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.0 -2.5 -3.6 -2.3 Index(b) Consumer Price Index (A)(b) -3.2 -2.1 -2.8 -3.6 -4.1 -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -3.3 -1.7 Change in nominal GDP (%) -0.8 -2.0 -3.0 -1.4 0.2 0.8 -0.2 -5.9 -1.9 * GDP at current market 1,260 1,235 298 306 325 331 298 288 319 330 prices ($ billion) GDP at constant (2000) 1,324 1,368 310 318 343 353 324 316 357 371 market prices ($ billion) Changes in inventories at 39-311332-2 6 constant (2000) market prices ($ billion) Notes : (#) Revised figures.
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