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TMA Australia Turnaround Survey KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey December 2020 Australia KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Introduction The annual KordaMentha As Australia and the rest of the world continue to navigate the health and economic impacts of the Profile of respondents COVID-19 pandemic, the outlook beyond 2020 remains – TMA Survey provides Other uncertain. an insight into the current Equity holder/ KordaMentha, in conjunction with the Turnaround Distressed investor/ Lender Private equity investor Management Association of Australia, surveyed the economic and business 4% Australian turnaround community for their insights on Corporate 6% 11% Lawyer advisor the response to COVID-19 and the outlook over the next 9% environment in Australia, and 11% 12 months. This survey follows our May 2020 survey, 157 the outlook beyond 2020. which focused on the impact of COVID-19. respondents These summary results cover the following topics: 21% 38% Turnaround Insolvency service provider • Australia’s turnaround environment. professional • The Government and legislative response to the economic impact of COVID-19 in Australia. South Australia/Tasmania/ • The outlook for Australian businesses as they Northern Territory/ACT position for recovery. Western Australia 1% • The ‘new normal’, beyond COVID-19. 5% Queensland 15% National 41% 21% Victoria 17% New South Wales Note: not all respondents answered all survey questions. The results presented in this report are the percentage of respondents who answered the question, not total survey respondents. 2 KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Key insights 01 02 03 04 05 Despite recent press Respondents agree Most respondents 77% of respondents Looking over the horizon that Australia’s that there has been believe that Australia’s expect hedge funds/ to the ‘new normal’ recession is over, sufficient support current turnaround and private equity/special beyond COVID-19, respondents believe and intervention from insolvency legislative situations funds to 81% of respondents that Australia was governments. However regime (including be more active over expect Australia-China not yet half-way most respondents the upcoming Small the next 12 months. relations to have a through. Only 17% of believe the cessation Business Restructuring This suggests a pivot significant impact on respondents expect a of the insolvent trading changes) is sufficient from the spike in Australian businesses V-shaped economic moratorium and wind to deal with COVID-19’s equity raising activity and the economy. recovery, more than the back of JobKeeper will economic impacts. seen earlier in 2020 10% in the May survey, result in a significant to a more distressed- but still very low. increase in corporate focused investment insolvencies. environment. 3 KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Turnaround environment: now and then Finding Measure May 2020 November 2020 U-shaped recovery % % Shape of Poor outlook remains, but 58 42 recovery increased recovery speed V-shaped recovery 10% 17% Hedge funds to be more active % % Funding for Alternative financiers expected 55 77 turnarounds to be more active New lenders to be more active 22% 53% Tourism significantly negative outlook 95% 43% Sentiment has improved for Industry some key industries, however Hospitality significantly negative outlook 95% 33% outlook remains negative Retail and consumer services significantly negative outlook 89% 23% Working and Some pandemic-driven changes Video conferencing and working from home to be retained 93% 97% consumption to working and consumption look behaviours like staying Home entertainment and shopping trends to be retained 50% 66% The pace of change since early 2020 has been unprecedented, with businesses and organisations adapting rapidly to COVID-19 and its related restrictions. The past six months have enabled survey respondents to form more comprehensive views on Australia’s economic and business outlook, and this has been reflected in some key changes from the survey conducted in May 2020. The next six to 12 months may provide greater clarity, however given the pace and scale of change in the last six months there are no guarantees. 4 KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Turnaround environment: current Service demand Service mix Change in level of enquiries for respondents’ Types of services provides provided over the services over the past six months past six months No change Lender negotiation 34% support Turnaround program 12% 34% implementation Some increase Liquidity reviews 34% 24% 55% Deterioration Recovery planning 30% Lease negotiation 20% 9% support Significant increase Safe Harbour advice 18% The ‘tsunami’ of turnaround and insolvency activity predicted in the May survey has not A broad range of services have been provided by respondents to clients, and potential yet eventuated, with 55% of respondents experiencing a deterioration in enquiries over clients, over the past six months. Perhaps surprisingly, only 18% of respondents had the past six months. provided Safe Harbour advice over the past six months, which is no doubt a reflection of the moratorium on insolvent trading. 5 KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Government and legislative response Respondents broadly believe there has been sufficient support and intervention from governments, and expect they will have the Government response desired effect of softening Australia’s economic landing. Will further government support and stimulus (e.g. additional JobKeeper Respondents’ suggestions for further government support and Respondents’ suggestions for changes to Australia’s current payments) be required? stimulus included: turnaround and insolvency legislative regime included: Yes • Targeted sector-specific support (e.g. Aged Care). • Increased thresholds under the Debtor in Possession model. No • Infrastructure investment. • Greater clarity regarding advisors’ liabilities and qualifications, and transition arrangements. • Tax reform. 40% • Extend the Small Business Restructuring scheme to include • Extension of JobKeeper. 60% larger businesses. • Allow pre-pack insolvencies and extension of Safe Harbour provisions. Legislative response Is Australia’s current turnaround and insolvency How effective will the recently announced SME What effect will the extension of the insolvent To what extent will the cessation of the regime sufficient to deal with COVID-19 insolvency reform measures be? trading moratorium to 31 December 2020 have on insolvent trading moratorium increase economic impacts? Australia’s economic recovery? corporate insolvencies in 2021? 3% 11% 24% 37% 44% 45% 56% 76% 60% 44% Yes Ineffective Positive Significant No Somewhat effective Negative Moderately Highly effective No impact 6 KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Positioning for recovery Recovery profile Geographic and industry outlook Expected shape of Australia’s economic recovery Outlook for each state over the next 12 months Victoria V Queensland Tasmania South Australia 17% Western Australia U Northern Territory 42% New South Wales Australian Capital Territory 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Somewhat Neutral Positive Very 41% negative negative positive W Outlook for each Australian industry over the next 12 months Tourism Hospitality Retail and consumer services Commercial real estate Progression through the recession Education Construction Media and telecommunications 1 Just starting 4 Clearly exiting 10 Transport and logistics Energy and utilities Manufacturing Agriculture/food As was the case in the previous survey, it is clear that respondents do not expect Mining and resources the Australian economy to bounce back rapidly. Professional services The outlook for individual industries is similar to the previous survey, with Tourism, Health and related services Hospitality, Commercial Real Estate and Education all having poor outlooks. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Significantly Moderately Neutral Positive negative outlook negative outlook outlook outlook 7 KordaMentha – TMA Australia Turnaround Survey Positioning for recovery Recovery actions Early 2020 saw a significant uplift in equity finance raisings as large ASX-listed Level of activity of external financing for turnarounds over next 12 months corporates reinforced balance sheets for the uncertainty ahead. Whilst this source of financing is expected to remain strong, respondents also noted New debt from existing lenders a continued expectation of a positive outlook for ‘Hedge funds/private equity/special situations funds’ as a source of external financing. Equity Injections Full debt re-financing/ recapitalisation from new lenders Other suggested steps to best position for recovery Mezzanine or subordinated debt Create a turnaround plan and communicate that plan Hedge funds/private equity/ special situations funds Undertake a strategy and efficiency review 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Worse Same Better Maximise use of IT Importance of initiatives for businesses as they position for recovery Somewhat Very Review risk strategies and continuity plan important important Plan early, make hard decisions and act now Cost reduction – overheads Change management and operational transformation Consider digital and government-impacted aspects of every component of Cost reduction – direct costs the business Inventory management Divestment or closure of business unit Review asset base for cash creation opportunities Cultural and governance change Bolster liquidity buffers in preparation for reduction in government support Revenue
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