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Kordamentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey May 2020 Australia KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Introduction The KordaMentha – TMA The scale and speed of the economic impact of COVID-19 is unprecedented, and although the health- Profile of respondents COVID-19 Survey provides related outlook is becoming clearer, there is great uncertainty on how and when economies will recover. Other an insight into the current KordaMentha, in conjunction with the Turnaround Board or Lender/Debt trader economic situation and Management Association of Australia, surveyed the Management Australian turnaround community for their insights on Equity holder/ 12% 11% Lawyer Distressed outlook for Australian the impact of, and response to, COVID-19. investor/Private 4% 17% equity investor These summary results cover the following topics: 8% 316 businesses as a result of respondents • Australia’s current turnaround environment. 12% 12% Corporate Turnaround COVID-19. adviser service provider • The Government and legislative response to 24% COVID-19 in Australia. Insolvency professional • The short-term outlook for Australian businesses. Note: not all respondents answered all survey questions. The • The longer-term outlook as the Australian economy results presented in this report are the percentage of respondents positions for recovery. who answered the question, not total survey respondents. 2 KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Key insights 01 02 03 04 05 Whilst the outlook for Most respondents 58% of respondents 25% of respondents 63% of respondents some industries is clear, believe the governments believe Australia’s believe businesses are see the availability of the outlook for others (Commonwealth and economic recovery will not adequately prepared external debt or equity is mixed. For example, State) have done be U-shaped, with only to ramp up once social financing for recovering approximately one enough to support 10% believing it will be distancing restrictions businesses being worse third of respondents Australian businesses in V-shaped. are lifted. over the next 12 months. expect the ‘Agriculture response to COVID-19, and food’ sector to be and that Australia’s negatively impacted current turnaround and over the next 12 months, insolvency legislative but one third expect it to regime is sufficient to be positively impacted. deal with COVID-19’s For the ‘Media and economic impacts. telecommunications’ sector, half expect a negative impact, but one third expect a positive impact. 3 KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Turnaround environment Industry outlook Demand for turnaround related services Respondents’ expected level of COVID-19 Respondents’ change in level of enquiries over economic impacts over the next 12 months the past month None Hospitality Deterioration Tourism Retail and consumer services 14% 27% Real estate/landlords Education Media and telecommunications 37% Manufacturing 22% Some increase Professional services Significant increase Construction Transport and logistics Health and related services There is a sense of ‘calm before the storm’ for the turnaround Energy and utilities industry, with 59% of respondents experiencing an increase in Mining and resources enquiries over the past month. However, 27% have experienced a Agriculture/food deterioration in the level of enquiries. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Significant negative Moderate negative No impact Positive Unsurprisingly, respondents expect the ‘Hospitality’, ‘Tourism’ and ‘Retail and consumer services’ sectors to face the greatest negative impact, and the ‘Health and related services’ sector to experience the greatest positive impact. Interestingly, sentiment for various sectors was very mixed. For example, 31% expected the ‘Agriculture/ food’ sector to experience either a significant or moderate negative impact, whilst 35% expected that sector to experience a positive impact. For the ‘Media and telecommunications’ sector, 48% expected that sector to experience either a significant or moderate negative impact, whilst 32% expected that sector to experience a positive impact. This highlights the uncertain outlook for many industries. 4 KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Government and legislative response Government response Legislative response Have governments (Commonwealth and State) Will further government support and stimulus Is Australia’s current turnaround and Will the six month relaxation of Australia’s ‘trading done enough to support Australian businesses (e.g. additional JobKeeper payments) be insolvency regime sufficient to deal with while insolvent’ laws reduce the number of corporate in response to COVID-19? required? COVID-19 economic impacts? insolvencies likely to occur over the next 12 months? 13% 35% 46% 45% 54% 55% 65% 87% Yes No Yes No Respondents’ suggestions for further government support and stimulus included: Respondents’ suggestions for changes to Australia’s current turnaround and insolvency legislative regime included: • support for early commencement of infrastructure projects • extension of Fair Entitlement Guarantee to Voluntary Administrations for a • tax breaks and tax incentives defined period • social security payment increases and extensions • reconsideration of Safe Harbour regime applicability for small to medium businesses • low rate loans to assist business’ working capital needs • introduction of US-style Chapter 11 restructures • targeted support for specific industries (e.g. tourism) • extension of the relaxation of the ‘trading while insolvent’ rules • extension of JobKeeper payments. • consideration of UK-style pre-pack insolvency practices. 5 KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Short term outlook Survival For how long can each industry continue on care and maintenance without either Importance of factors to businesses for surviving the next 3-6 months further government support and/or a return to business as usual? Hospitality Customer patronage 89% 11% Tourism Retail and consumer services Working capital 81% 19% Education access Real estate/landlords Functioning supply 72% 28% Health and related services chains Manufacturing Media and telecommunications Government support 70% 30% Transport and logistics Construction Rent holiday 62% 38% Energy and utilities Agriculture/food Debt interest/principal 61% 39% holiday Mining and resources Professional services 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% <1 month <1-3 months 3-6 months >6 months Significant Moderate Given recent commentary around the likely near-term lifting of restrictions that have been imposed by governments, it appears that respondents expect that many industries will be able to survive until those restrictions are lifted. However, given that a complete return to business as usual may not be immediately achievable for some sectors, further targeted government assistance may be required. 6 KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Short term outlook Short term actions and changes Operational changes introduced Actions taken by respondents or their Other actions and changes taken by respondents and by respondents and their clients clients to survive the next 3-6 months their clients include: Utilising video Reducing and/or pausing discretional and operational 88% Stopping recruitment 62% conference technology expenses (client functions, staff training). All staff currently Stopping investment/ 80% 50% working from home capex Reducing pay and working hours. Forcing staff to take Ceasing face to face 46% 76% leave meetings with clients Seeking covenant relief. Utilising electronic Reducing headcount 37% 67% signing of documents Seeking additional Seeking cheaper leases. 31% Rotating staff through debt 28% office Stopping orders from 28% suppliers Changing dividend policy. Introduction of use of 11% PPE for staff Seeking additional 25% equity Requiring upfront retainer payment from clients. There have clearly been radical changes undertaken by Perhaps surprisingly, the majority of respondents and respondents and their clients in response to COVID-19 their clients have not taken actions to reduce some and the imposed restrictions, largely relating to major costs (e.g. reducing headcount, stopping orders increasing digital ways of working. from suppliers), and only half had stopped investment/ capex. Interestingly, slightly more respondents and their clients had sought additional debt, as compared to seeking additional equity. This highlights the current low cost of debt funding, as well as the potential reluctance of shareholders to contribute additional funds. 7 KordaMentha – TMA Australia COVID-19 Survey 2020 Positioning for recovery Recovery profile It is clear that respondents do not expect the Australian Expected shape of Australia’s Expectations of how difficult it will be for Expectations of businesses’ level of economy to bounce back rapidly. The overall poor economic recovery companies to restart with adequate working preparedness to ramp up once social economic recovery outlook (predominantly U-shaped), capital and/or access to necessary supply chains distancing and other restrictions are lifted will likely be compounded by the lack of preparedness V Very of businesses to take advantage of any improvement Straightforward Not prepared 3% prepared in conditions, and the lack of financing availability Very 10% difficult 15% to support working capital and other recovery 25% requirements. W 40% 57% 58% 32% U Somewhat 60% difficult Somewhat prepared Recovery financing This negative outlook for debt and equity
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