FDI Strategic Weekly Analysis

5 June 2013 | Vol. 4, № 19. From the Editor’s Desk Dear FDI supporters, Welcome to the Strategic Weekly tensions caused by Ethiopia’s plans to Analysis. This week’s issue begins with a divert the Nile River for its ambitious look at the latest developments in the Grand Renaissance Dam. Naxalite Rebellion in India’s “Red Corridor”. We then consider Afghan This week’s edition concludes by looking President Hamid Karzai’s recent visit to at another ambitious plan, this time further south in Mozambique. Funding New Delhi, including the implications of has been announced for Phase III of the that visit for Pakistan. Nacala Development Corridor, linking Still in Pakistan, we examine the future for Mozambique with Malawi and Zambia. US-Pakistan relations in light of the drone I trust that you will enjoy this edition of strike that killed a leading member of the Pakistani Taliban last week. the Strategic Weekly Analysis. We then head back to India and examine Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Institute Director and CEO that country’s growing relationship with Future Directions International Japan. Next, we turn our attention to Africa, investigating the growing regional ***** Drone Strike May Weaken Pakistani Taliban, but Islamabad and Washington Face Dilemma While a recent drone strike against the Pakistan Taliban’s second-in-command may weaken the group, it may also hinder the ongoing peace process in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Islamabad and Washington must now decide the future limits and use of the controversial drone campaign. Background Less than a week after President Obama outlined a new direction for his covert drone campaign, Pakistani officials have said that a CIA missile strike has killed a top member of the Pakistani Taliban. The strike on 29 May was the first since Pakistan’s general election on 11 May, which saw several candidates, including the incoming Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, campaign against the US drone strikes. The strike may offer a short-term tactical victory against the Taliban, but Islamabad and Washington must now decide the future use and limits of the controversial programme. Comment The drone strike on 29 March in Pakistan’s northwest, killed the deputy commander of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Waliur Rehman. The 40-year old Rehman was widely believed to the brains behind the TTP; he had reportedly orchestrated dozens of suicide attacks on Pakistani civilians and conducted cross-border attacks against NATO troops fighting the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. In the short-term, therefore, Rehman’s death should come as a major blow to the TTP. The group will now be deprived of a key strategist, whose experience in raising funds and carrying out major attacks posed a significant threat. A mature leader in an organisation of young fighters, Rehman was also seen as a galvanising figure who helped ease tensions among different factions. As Rutam Shah Mohmand, the former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan told Central Asia Online, ‘it’s a serious blow to the already shaky Taliban command and control, which is seriously faced with leadership crises’. This may be true, but observers have also expressed concern that Rehman’s death may hinder the ongoing peace process. The incoming government has shown a willingness to negotiate with the TTP, even if the army has not; many saw Rehman as an important figure in any upcoming negotiations. Renowned for his cool head and intelligence, Rehman, as a former member of the Islamist political party Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), may well have been invaluable in bringing the two sides together. For now, however, negotiations have been put on ice. The TTP promptly abandoned talks and vowed to exact revenge for the strike. With many of the TTP’s remaining leaders believed to be hardliners, the strike may actually push the two sides further apart. Yet it also served to highlight the recent divisions about Pakistan’s security policy. So far, Prime Minister Sharif has advocated a soft line; he has repeatedly said he would rather talk with TTP than launch a major military offensive in North Waziristan. The area remains a Page 2 of 13 haven for jihadists from around the world and, aside from American drones, is effectively lawless. Meanwhile, the head of Pakistan’s powerful military, General Kayani, appears to favour a tougher approach, convinced that urgent action is required to defeat the TTP. Last year he declared that the whole country should join in a ‘war against extremism and terrorism’; however, he is set to retire at the end of the year. Sharif has a complicated relationship with the military, which ousted him in a coup d’état in 1999. But he now appears determined to handle the defence and security portfolios, two areas usually controlled by the military. Pakistan, therefore, will continue to try to negotiate, though its patience is wearing thin; the escalation in violence and lack of progress in negotiations, may force it to adopt a harder line in the future. But it remains to be seen what Pakistan intends to do on the drone issue. Sharif has previously called them a ‘challenge’ to Pakistan’s sovereignty, but was notably quiet after the recent strike; most likely because Rehman was a powerful anti-state actor. Defence analyst, Ayesha Siddiqua, told The Australian that the strike may have been a symbolic one, aimed at highlighting the value of the strikes. He said, ‘this drone attack is a signal to Pakistan and its new government by America that “look, it’s not all bad. We’re also killing people who attack you and the Pakistani state.”’ To make progress, Islamabad and Washington must now find an appropriate middle ground. Finally, the strike may signal a new chapter in Obama’s much-maligned drone campaign. In a recent security address, Obama said he planned to reign in the “global war on terror” and impose stricter protocols for drone strikes. According to the President, lethal force would now only be used against those who pose a ‘continuous, imminent threat to the American people’. Significantly, Rehman became a ‘specially-designated global terrorist’ in 2010. Strikes against high value targets, such as Rehman, will continue of course. But the drone strikes have been reduced and are likely to be reduced even further in the future. Given the backlash against them in Pakistan, and around the world, that can only be a good thing. Andrew Manners Research Analyst Indian Ocean Research Programme [email protected] ***** Page 3 of 13 Naxalite Attack Sows Discord Naxalite-Maoist insurgents have ambushed an Indian National Congress party convoy, killing some senior party leaders and leaving others injured. The aftermath has been marked by politicisation of the attack, as parties and government authorities seek to apportion blame. Background Around half of the 28 states of India have some Naxalite (formally the Communist Party of India (Maoist)) presence, but they are most active in the states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal; together, these states are known as the “Red Corridor”. The insurgency has been ongoing since the late 1960s, highlighting the inability (or lack of will) of successive Indian governments to resolve it. Comment On 25 May 2013, around 250 Naxalite insurgents ambushed a Congress party convoy in the Darbha Valley, in the Chhattisgarh state of Eastern India. The convoy carried around 200 Congress personnel in 25 vehicles. Senior state Congress party leaders were present, as they were conducting a local Parivartan Yatra (change rally). The convoy was travelling along National Highway 221, which connects Chhattisgarh to the neighbouring state of Andhra Pradesh. The attack was swift and well executed, beginning around 4pm local time and ending less than two hours later. It took place along a densely forested section of the highway, 50km from the village of Keshloor, to which the convoy was travelling, after leaving the town of Sukma. A felled tree blocked the road, slowing the convoy, after which a landmine was detonated near the fourth vehicle, destroying it. The Naxalites then opened fire from nearby hills, drawing out the convoy’s personal security officers, who exchanged fire until they ran out of ammunition. Many escaped on foot, while the Naxalites executed their high-level targets after demanding their surrender. The attack claimed at least 24 lives and injured over 30. The senior state leadership of the Congress party has been devastated by the attack: amongst the dead are party Chief Nand Kumar Patel and his son Dinesh, as well as senior leader Mahendra Karma. Senior leader Vidya Charan Shukla is among the injured and remains in critical condition. Many had “Z” or Page 4 of 13 “Z+” category (top) security status, as they were known targets of the insurgents. Numerous attempts had already been made on the life of Karma, in particular. The last was in November 2012 under similar circumstances, as he campaigned directly against the Naxalites. Despite this, both he and the other senior leaders were travelling with less security than was appropriate for their status, perhaps contributing to their own deaths. The insurgents were able to strike in strength, which is not surprising considering Chhattisgarh has a security force of only 25,000 to cover an area of two million square kilometres. In comparison, Delhi has over 70,000 personnel. Many reports have indicated that the convoy had no state-provided security, despite being properly scheduled with high-security passengers. In response, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister, Raman Singh, held an emergency meeting of senior administration officials and ordered a judicial enquiry into the attack. Federal Home Minister, Sushil Kumar Shinde, has liaised with Singh and set up an investigation by the National Investigation Agency.

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