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Challenges Persist As the Sector Searches for a Bottom

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Challenges Persist As the Sector Searches for a Bottom Sector Report: Gaming Noah Hudson 行业报告：博彩 +86 755 23976684 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 国泰君安研究 13 March 2015 Challenges Persist as the Sector Searches for a Bottom GTJA Research Research GTJA 挑战仍然存在，行业寻找底部 Research GTJA In 2014, Macau visitors increased by 7.5% to 31.5 million but total Gross Rating: Neutral Gaming Revenue (“GGR”) declined by 2.6%, the first decline since the Downgraded industry’s opening up in 2002. 评级： 中性 (下调) Catalysts: 1) Casino hotel rooms will increases by 18.9% this year, bringing some alleviation to Macau’s hotel room bottleneck (2014 casino hotels occupancy was at near capacity at 96.4%, the highest Stock performance ever). 2) US$7.3 billion in new casino development to go into operation 股价表现 in 2015, increasing the number of gaming tables by 17.5%. In addition, 30.0 % return several important infrastructure projects under development most likely won’t 20.0 be ready until after 2015: 3) Macau Intercity Light Rail Transit, 4) Pac On ferry 10.0 terminal, 5) HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, 6) Zhuhai-Macau New Channel 0.0 pedestrian border crossing and 7) increased capacity at the Macau Airport. (10.0) Challenges and threats: 1) the ongoing anti-corruption campaign, 2) (20.0) Beijing has set low 2015 GDP and M2 growth targets, 3) a full smoking (30.0) ban in casinos is likely to be implemented and 4) Macau is planning to (40.0) cap the number of mainland visitors. We also think the Philippines and South Korea are threats and will cut into Macau’s market share this year. (50.0) (60.0) We forecast 1Q15 to 4Q15 Macau GGR qoq growth of -16.9%, -4.0%, Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 HSI SJM Galaxy 5.7% and 8.1%, respectively; this works out to a 2015 full year decline of Wynn Macau Melco Crown MGM China SJM 27.2%. GGR could decline further sequentially, but we think we are Source: Bloomberg. approaching the bottom if not there already. In 2015, we expect flat mom growth except for when new casino hotel room or gaming table capacity is added. Downgrade sector outlook to “Neutral” 2014 年，澳门的入境旅客量增长 7.5%至 3,150 万，但是总博彩收入下降 2.6%，是博彩 业自从 2002 年开放之后首次下降。 催化剂： ）今年，赌场酒店客房量将提升 ，部分打通澳门的酒店客房瓶颈（ 1 18.9% 2014 年赌场酒店入住率达到 96.4%，接近爆满，也是历史最高水平）、2）投资额 73 亿美元的 博彩 新赌场项目今年开幕，将提升赌台量 17.5%。另外，几个重要基础设施项目大约要到 2015 r 港口业 年之后才完成：3）澳门城际轻轨运输、4）北安码头、5）港珠澳大桥、6）粤澳新通道以 及 7）扩建澳门机场。 Gaming Gaming Secto Sector Port 挑战和威胁：1）持续反腐工作、2）北京制定较低的 2015 年国内生产总值增长和 M2 货 币供应量增长目标、3）澳门政府拟通过法案在赌场完全禁止吸烟以及 4）澳门正在计划限 制内地旅客量。我们也认为菲律宾和韩国是威胁，今年将啃掉部分澳门的市场份额。 我们分别预期 2015 年 1 季度至 2015 年 4 季度澳门总博彩收入环比增长为-16.9%、-4.0%、 5.7%和 8.1%，相当于 2015 年全年下降 27.2%。我们认为总博彩收入有可能进一步环比 下降，但是应该快要见底（或许已经见底）。我们预期澳门总博彩收入增长在 2015 年除 了有新增赌台或者酒店客房的那些月份之外，月环比持平。下调行业评级至“中性”。 Company Name Code Price Rating FY14 PER FY15PER FY16 PER FY14 PBR FY14 ROE FY14 Yield 公司名称 编号 股价 投资评级 市盈率 市盈率 市盈率 市净率 净资产收益率 股息率 (HK$) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Mgm China 02282 HK 14.600 Neutral 9.7 13.6 15.0 8.7 88.9 9.2 Galaxy Entertain 00027 HK 34.200 Accumulate 13.3 12.2 12.5 9.2 30.5 6.2 Wynn Macau Ltd 01128 HK 17.260 Neutral 13.9 19.2 15.7 7.9 62.6 4.8 Melco Crown Ente MPEL US US$21.335 n.a. 9.7 13.6 15.0 2.4 10.8 2.5 Sjm Holdings Ltd 00880 HK 9.790 n.a. 13.3 12.2 12.5 2.2 22.5 9.4 Sands China Ltd 01928 HK 31.300 n.a. 13.9 19.2 15.7 5.1 34.3 7.0 Weighted Average. Neutral 13.2 15.3 13.8 6.0 37.6 6.3 Report 市值加权平均 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Sector See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 23 Table of Contents Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................... 2 COMPETING GAMBLING JURISDICTIONS ............................................................................................... 3 13 March 2015 Singapore ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Philippines ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 South Korea................................................................................................................................................... 5 Taiwan .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Vietnam ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 Japan ............................................................................................................................................................. 6 MACAU CASINO INDUSTRY ....................................................................................................................... 7 Visitors .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Recent Infrastructure Improvements ........................................................................................................... 11 Catalysts – Infrastructure, Casino & Hotel Development .............................................................................. 12 Challenges & Risks ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Macau Gross Gaming Revenue .................................................................................................................... 17 Our 2015 Macau GGR Forecasts .................................................................................................................. 19 APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................................... 20 Macau Gaming Historical Development ....................................................................................................... 20 博彩 r Gaming Gaming Secto Report Sector See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 23 COMPETING GAMBLING JURISDICTIONS In 2014, gross gaming revenue decreased in Macau and Singapore but increased in South Korea and the Philippines. Even with the 2.6% decline in its 2014 gross gaming revenue (GGR), Macau is by far the world’s largest gaming destination with US$44,009 million in 2014 GGR. The second highest was the Las Vegas Strip, which had casino revenue of US$6,373 million last year. Singapore’s 2014 gross gaming revenue (GGR) was US$5,982 million down 1.6% from 2013, slightly better 13 March 2015 than the 2.6% drop for Macau’s 2014 GGR. However, not all Asian gaming jurisdictions suffered along with Macau and Singapore in 2014. For the first three quarters of 2014, casino revenue for South Korea increased 10.9% yoy to US$1,902 million and casino revenue for the Philippines increased 19.0% yoy to US$949 million. Figure-1: USA, Macau & Singapore Gaming Revenues Figure-2: Macau, South Korea & Philippines Gaming Revenues Macau Singapore US Total* Macau Philippines South Korea US$ Billion US$ Billion 2014 2013 2014 2013 Macau; 1Q - 3Q Philippines; 0.95 ; 3% 45.2 ; 38% 1.1 ; 2% US Total*; Macau; 66.7 ; 57% 44.0 ; 38% 45.17 ; South 1.90 ; 5% 93% Korea; 2.3 Singapore; ; 5% 6.1 ; 5% 66.7 ; 57% 34.54; 92% 6.0 ; 5% Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau Macao SAR, Bloomberg, Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau Macao SAR, Bloomberg, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Guotai Junan International. Guotai Junan International. Note: US Total for 2014 is an estimate of Guotai Junan International. Singapore With no plans for further casino development, we don’t think Singapore will have much impact in diverting 博彩 r incremental demand from Macau in the foreseeable future. Singapore GGR decreased by 1.6% in 2014, with 4.7% decline in the VIP segment, partially offset by 8.2% increase in Gaming Gaming Secto the mass market. Gaming in Singapore began in 2010, when it opened its first two (and currently still the only) casinos, Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)'s Marina Bay Sands and Genting Group (3182 MYX)'s Resorts World Sentosa. Despite the competition, in 2010, Macau’s GGR surged a record 58%, and grew another 42% in 2011. We think Singapore, which is a four hour flight from Guangzhou, China, will have a limited impact on drawing PR China gamblers as long as it maintains its relatively rigid visa policies for PR passport holders. For example, PR nationals applying for a Singapore tourist visa must have a local Singapore resident who must provide a letter of introduction. Also, there are no new casinos planned for Singapore. Philippines With City of Dreams Manila opened on Feb. 2, we think the Philippines will take incremental market share from Macau in 2015. Entertainment City casino resort hub in Manila Bay, Philippines, opened the first of its four planned casinos in March Report 2013. The Philippines, which has had a history of gaming since the 1800’s when it was a Spanish colony, didn’t open its first Sector See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 23 large scale casino complex until 2010 with Alliance Global Group Inc and Genting Hong Kong’s Resorts World Manila, which is currently being extended to double the size of its gaming and hotel facilities in 2017. Now, four operators have been granted licenses to develop a US$5.9 billion casino resort destination in Philippines’ Manila Bay called Entertainment City. Entertainment City’s first resort, Bloomberry’s US$1.2 billion
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