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Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368

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Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 Company Report: Galaxy Entertainment (00027 HK) Noah Hudson 公司报告：银河娱乐 (00027 HK) +86 755 23976684 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 13 March 2015 Expect 27.3% Gaming Tables Increase in 2015, “Accumulate” 预期赌台量在2015年提升27.3%，“收集” GTJA Research Research GTJA Macau GGR could decline further sequentially, but we think we are Rating: Accumulate approaching the bottom if not there already. Challenges include 1) the Initial ongoing anti-corruption campaign, 2) Beijing has set low 2015 GDP and M2 评级： 收集 (首次研究) growth targets, 3) a full smoking ban in casinos is likely to be implemented and 4) Macau is planning to cap the number of mainland visitors. In 2015, we expect flat mom sector growth except for when new casino hotel room or 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$39.00 gaming table capacity is added, forecast 27.2% decline in Macau 2015 GGR. We forecast 2014-2016 adjusted EBITDA of HK$13.2 billion, HK$14.7 Share price 股价： HK$35.000 billion and HK$15.3 billion, representing growth of 4.8%, 11.7% and 4.1%, respectively. 2015 Company revenue growth will be driven by 34.8% increase in GEG’s hotel room capacity and 27.3% increase in GEG’s effective Stock performance 股价表现 gaming table capacity. GEG’s US$2.5 bn Galaxy Macau Phase II and 20.0 % return Broadway are expected to add 500 gaming tables, 1,000 slot machines and 10.0 1,570 hotel rooms when they open on May 27, 2015. We expect revenue 0.0 growth to be partly offset by lower EBITDA margin on higher labor expense. (10.0) We set GEG’s initial investment rating at “Accumulate” with target price (20.0) at HK$39.00, which is equivalent to 11.3x 2015 EV/EBITDA. GEG is (30.0) currently trading at 9.7x forward EV/EBITDA, which is an 11.6% discount to (40.0) Macau peers and an 8.8% discount to U.S. peers. Our target price is ) equivalent to 12.6x 2014 / 11.3x 2015 / 10.8x 2016 EV/adjusted EBITDA. (50.0) (60.0) 我们认为澳门总博彩收入有可能进一步环比下降，但是应该快要见底。挑战包括 1）持续 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 00027 HK HSI Galaxy Ent. ( 反腐工作、2）北京制定较低的 2015 年国内生产总值增长和 M2 货币供应量增长目标、3） 澳门政府拟通过法案在赌场完全禁止吸烟以及 4）澳门正在计划限制内地旅客量。预期澳 门总博彩收入增长在 2015 年除了有新增赌台或者酒店客房的那些月份之外，月环比持平， 银河娱乐 预期 2015 年澳门总博彩收入下降 27.2%。 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 我们分别预期 2014 年至 2016 年调整后 EBITDA 为 132 亿港元、147 亿港元和 153 亿港 (19.4) (27.2) (50.9) 绝对变动 % 元，相当于 4.8%、11.7%和 4.1%的增长。在 2015 年公司的酒店房量将提升 34.8%，赌 Rel. % to HS index (15.9) (29.5) (60.3) 台量将提升 27.3%，从而将拉升公司的收入。预期公司投资 25 亿美元的澳门银河第二期 相对恒指变动 % Avg. share price(HK$) 39.3 40.8 54.2 以及澳门百老汇将在 2015 年 5 月 27 日开幕，新增 500 台赌台、1,000 台角子机以及 1,570 平均股价（港元） 间酒店客房。不过，由于较高的劳动力费用，我们预期收入增长将被较低的 EBITDA 利润 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Galaxy Entertainment 率所部分抵消。 我们定首次投资评级为“收集”，目标价为 39.00 港元，相当于 11.3 倍 2015 年 EV/ EBITDA。 公司目前的后 4 个季度预测 EV/EBITDA 估值为 9.7 倍，低于澳门同行 11.6%，低于美国 同行 8.8%。我们的目标价相当于 12.6 倍 2014 年、11.3 倍 2015 年和 10.8 倍 2016 年 EV/调整后 EBITDA。 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (HKD m) ( HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%) 2012A 56,746 7,378 1.762 141.9 24.6 5.204 8.3 0.000 0.0 25.6 2013A 66,033 10,052 2.387 35.5 18.1 7.688 5.6 0.000 0.0 37.0 2014F 72,418 10,899 2.575 7.9 16.8 9.188 4.7 2.104 4.9 30.5 2015F 87,631 11,940 2.805 8.9 15.4 9.785 4.4 2.292 5.3 29.6 2016F 97,018 11,674 2.726 (2.8) 15.9 10.247 4.2 2.228 5.1 27.2 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 4,251.9 Major shareholder 大股东 City Lion Profits Ltd. 30.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 148,817.3 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 69.1 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 16,459.8 FY15 Net gearing (%) FY15 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 74.039 / 33.150 FY15 Est. NAV (HK$) FY15 每股估值（港元） 51.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 29 INDUSTRY UPDATE ..................................................................................................................................... 3 COMPANY ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 History and Background ................................................................................................................................ 7 13 March 2015 The Gaming Concession ................................................................................................................................. 8 GEG Casinos and Development ...................................................................................................................... 9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................ 13 Revenue ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 Expenses ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 EBITDA and Net Income ............................................................................................................................... 20 Dividends .................................................................................................................................................... 20 RISKS ............................................................................................................................................................ 21 VALUATION .................................................................................................................................................. 22 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND RATIOS ................................................................................................ 24 APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................................... 26 Macau Gaming’s Historical Development .................................................................................................... 26 ) 00027 HK ( 银河娱乐 Galaxy Entertainment t Company Repor See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 29 INDUSTRY UPDATE Macau’s total gross gaming revenue (“GGR”) declined by 2.6% in 2014, the first decline since the industry’s opening up in 2002. However, there was a huge difference between the VIP and Mass Market segments, and also between the first quarter and the last three quarters. 13 March 2015 With the central government’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign, Macau’s VIP GGR fell by 10.9% in 2014. Sequentially, VIP GGR showed qoq declines in the first two quarters followed by positive qoq growth in 3Q14 and 4Q14. The 2014 drop in VIP GGR was the second year with negative growth since the sector’s opening up in 2002, the first being in 2005 when VIP GGR declined by just 3.1%. The VIP segment suffered through 2014 as the Chinese government continued and even accelerated its anti-corruption campaign, which we expect to continue indefinitely with no let up in sight. With the plunge in VIP GGR, the number of licensed junkets (gaming promoters) in Macau decreased by 15.6% in 2014. The total number of junkets fell from 217 in January 2014 to just 183 by year end, according to public broadcaster Rádio Macau. Mass market GGR increased by 13.7% for full year 2014, but declined qoq from 2Q14 through 4Q14. Factors negatively affecting the mass segment were China’s slowing GDP growth along with virtually no new gaming or casino hotel room capacity in 2014. In addition, the premium mass segment suffered along with the VIP segment. 4Q14 was a disaster for the mass segment when its GGR plunged by 18.2% qoq, the steepest drop on record going back to 1Q05. Figure-1: Macau Total, VIP and Mass GGR Growth Figure-2: Macau Total, VIP and Mass GGR qoq Growth (Annual) (Quarterly) Total Gross Gaming Revenue Growth Mass Market Gaming Revenue Growth (qoq) Mass Market Gaming Revenue Growth VIP Market Gaming Revenue Growth (qoq) VIP Market Gaming Revenue Growth Total Gross Gaming Revenue Growth (qoq) 15% 11.6% 12.3% 80% 69.9% 5.7% 5.4% 10% ) 70% 5.5% 4.1% 2.4% 3.5% 12.2% 2.0% 60% 44.6% 5% -2.4% 50% 57.8% 42.2% 0% 00027 HK 33.3% 1.0% 2.1% ( 40% 0.3% 30.0% 31.0% -5% -0.4% 30% -1.5% -7.2% 36.1% 18.6% -10% 20% 13.5% 13.7% -8.8% -8.8% 银河娱乐 10% -15% 13.1% -2.6% -11.1% 0% -14.4% 7.5% -20% -16.0% -18.2% -10% -25% -19.6% -20% -10.9% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR. Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR. Galaxy Entertainment Macau’s GGR was up 2.0% mom in January 2015, but hopes that the sector had bottomed out were dashed in February when GGR crashed 17.7% mom. February’s mom plunge was especially bad, considering that it was the month of the Chinese New Year. From 2008 to 2014, GGR has on average increased by 6.4% mom in the month of the Chinese New Year. February GGR was the lowest it’s been since January 2011, when GGR was MOP18,571 million. The Macau government is making plans to cap the number of mainland tourists to control traffic congestion and overcrowding. According to Macau’s Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture, some Macau residents are not happy about overcrowding and traffic congestion caused by mainland visitors, and the Macau government plans to soon discuss the issue with mainland’s central government. It has been reported in the local media that there has been discontent among some of the locals about the number of visitors, many from mainland China, causing congestion in some parts of the city, especially during peak travel seasons. No cap has yet been decided and limits could vary for different seasons of the year. As a result, there could be new limitations on visas for mainlanders to Macau. t We expect Beijing’s low GDP and M2 growth targets for 2015 will have a negative effect on Macau GGR. Beijing sets China’s 2015 GDP growth target at 7.0%, lowest target in over 15 year. M2 growth for 2015 has been targeted at just 12%, which is lower than last year’s target of 13% and suggests there’s no plan for big stimulus this year.
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