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Reproduced from the Defeat of Barisan Nasional: Missed Signs Or The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) is an autonomous organization established in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are grouped under Regional Economic Studies (RES), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). The Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC), the Temasek History Research Centre (THRC) and the Singapore APEC Study Centre. ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world. 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 2 28/11/19 11:23 AM First published in Singapore in 2019 by ISEAS Publishing 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. © 2019 ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of the publisher or its supporters. ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Names: Hutchinson, Francis E., editor. | Lee, Hwok Aun, editor. Title: The defeat of Barisan Nasional : missed signs or late surge? / editors, Francis E. Hutchinson and Lee Hwok Aun. Description: Singapore : ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: ISBN 9789814843898 (paperback) | ISBN 9789814843904 (PDF) Subjects: LCSH: Malaysia. Parliament. Dewan Rakyat—Elections, 2018. | Elections— Malaysia. | Barisan Nasional (Organization). | Malaysia—Politics and government. Classification: LCC JQ1062 A95D31 Photographs on the front and back covers reproduced with permission of Malaysian Insight. Typeset by Superskill Graphics Pte Ltd Printed in Singapore by Mainland Press Pte Ltd 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 4 28/11/19 11:23 AM CONTENTS List of Figures viii List of Tables xii Foreword xv Acknowledgements xvii Contributors xix Abbreviations xxiv INTRODUCTION 1. 9 May 2018: The Unexpected 3 Francis E. Hutchinson and Lee Hwok Aun PART I: CAMPAIGN DYNAMICS 2. Against the Odds: Malaysia’s Electoral Process and Pakatan Harapan’s Unlikely Victory 25 Kai Ostwald 3. Winning Elections by Rigging Borders? Barisan Nasional’s Brazen, and Failed, Attempt 49 Danesh Prakash Chacko 4. Economic Dynamics and the GE-14 Surprise: Statistics, Realities, Sentiments 85 Yeah Kim Leng 5. Economic Voting and the End of Dominant Party Rule in Malaysia 113 Cassey Lee 6. Money, Malfeasance, and a Malaysian Election 131 Meredith L. Weiss 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 5 28/11/19 11:23 AM vi Contents PART II: INTEREST GROUPS 7. The Rural Malay Voter in GE-14: Expectations, Surprise, and Misgivings 153 Serina Rahman 8. From Council Flats to Government Quarters: GE-14 in Urban Malay Constituencies 191 Adib Zalkapli and Wan Saiful Wan Jan 9. The Making and Breaking of Malaysia’s FELDA Vote Bank 209 Geoffrey K. Pakiam 10. Social Transformation and the Consolidation of Chinese Votes for Regime Change 235 Ngu Ik Tien and Lee Hwok Aun 11. Indian Voters in GE-14: Finding a New Voice? 258 Anantha Raman Govindasamy PART III: STATES 12. Selangor: Pakatan’s Home Advantage, Barisan’s Hollow Tactics, PAS’ Hardy Base 279 Lee Hwok Aun 13. GE-14 in Johor: Shock or Just Awe? 310 Francis E. Hutchinson 14. Kelantan: PAS Settles in on the Balcony of Mecca 342 Norshahril Saat 15. Sarawak: An Electoral Tremor with Far-Reaching Consequences? 364 Lee Poh Onn 16. Sabah: the End of BN and a New Order? 402 Tony Paridi Bagang and Arnold Puyok PART IV: PERSONAL PERSPECTIVES 17. Lembah Pantai, Kuala Lumpur: And Together, We Will Fell Goliath! 425 Fahmi Fadzil 18. Kapayan, Sabah: Silent Winds of Change 432 Jannie Lasimbang 19. Pasir Gudang, Johor: Fortitude Amid Defeat 437 Khaled Nordin 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 6 28/11/19 11:23 AM Contents vii 20. Ketari, Pahang: Protest and Loyalty, Confidence and Desperation 445 Young Syefura Othman 21. Cempaka, Selangor: Keeping the Faith 451 Iskandar Abdul Samad 22. Big Data and Bold Calls: How INVOKE Saw What Everyone Missed 458 Rafizi Ramli and James Chai CONCLUSION 23. Missed Signs or Late Surge? 479 Lee Hwok Aun and Francis E. Hutchinson Index 493 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 7 28/11/19 11:23 AM LIST OF FIGURES Front Endpaper Parliamentary Seats on 6 April and 9 May 2018, Peninsular Malaysia Back Endpaper Parliamentary Seats on 6 April and 9 May 2018, Sabah and Sarawak 1.1 Parliamentary Seats in Peninsular Malaysia by Ethnicity and Winning Party (GE-14) 13 1.2 Parliamentary Seats in Sabah and Sarawak by Ethnicity and Winning Party (GE-14) 14 1.3 Peninsular Malaysia: State Governments in GE-13 and GE-14 17 2.1 Perceptions of Electoral Integrity: East Asia, Southeast Asia and Malaysia Compared 29 2.2 Malapportionment of Districts in the 2018 Election 32 3.1 Variation of Voter Population in Redistricted Parliamentary Seats in Kelantan, 1958 55 3.2 Variation of Voter Population in Redistricted Parliamentary Seats in Selangor, 1958 56 3.3 Variation of Redistricted Parliamentary Seats in Sarawak, 1968 58 3.4 Redelineation Exercises, Seat Creation and BN’s Electoral Performance, 1964–2018 62 3.5 Constituencies with Registered Population Size as of GE-13 63 3.6 Parliamentary Seats in Peninsular Malaysia and the 2018 Redelineation: Percentage of Voters Moved from One Seat to Another 66 3.7 State Legislative Assembly Seats in Peninsular Malaysia and the 2018 Redelineation: Percentage of Voters Moved from One Seat to Another 67 3.8 Seri Andalas (Now Sungai Kandis) State Assembly Seat (Selangor), Prior to 2018 Redelineation 71 3.9 Sungai Kandis (Previously Seri Andalas) State Assembly Seat (Selangor), Prior to 2018 redelineation 72 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 8 28/11/19 11:23 AM List of Figures ix 3.10 Lembah Pantai: Gerrymandering and Evolving Voter Preferences 75 3.11 Parliamentary Seats in Peninsular Malaysia (GE-13): Malay Voter Presence and Winning Coalition 77 3.12 Parliamentary Seats in Peninsular Malaysia (GE-14): Malay Voter Presence and Winning Coalition 78 3.13 Level of Support for PR/PH among Chinese Voters (Peninsular Malaysia) 79 3.14 Level of Support for PR/PH among Indian Voters (Peninsular Malaysia) 80 4.1 Scatter Plot of Macroeconomic Variables by Votes and Seats Obtained by the Incumbent Party That Lost the Election 90 4.2 Opinion Poll on the Direction of the Economy in the 2018 Election 94 4.3 Distribution of Mean Monthly Wages and Wage Increases in Manufacturing and Service Industries in 2017 98 4.4 House Price and Household Income Trends 100 4.5 Type of Household Debt by Income Group 101 5.1 BN’s Performance in General Elections, 1964–2018 116 5.2 Nominal GDP Growth, 2016–18 118 5.3 Inflation and GST Implementation, 2010–18 119 5.4 Inflation and Exchange Rate, 2010–18 120 5.5 Unemployment Rate, 2007–18 121 5.6 Government Expenditure and Revenue, 1970–2016 122 5.7 Elite Defections and Electoral Outcomes 124 7.1 Rural, Semi-urban, Urban seats, and Winning Party (GE-13) 156 7.2 Parliamentary Seats in Johor by Urban Status and Ethnicity (GE-14) 158 7.3 Parliamentary Seats in Kedah by Urban Status and Ethnicity (GE-14) 160 7.4 Matrix of the Main Issues Raised during Focus Group Discussions and Interviews 169 8.1 Urban and Semi-urban Malay-Majority Constituencies, 2018 199 8.2 Urban and Semi-urban Malay-Majority Constituencies and Winning Party, 2018 203 9.1 Peninsular Malaysia: Parliamentary Constituencies and FELDA Schemes, 2004–18 211 9.2 Peninsular Malaysia: Electorate Distribution, FELDA vs. Non-FELDA Constituencies, 2018 212 9.3 Peninsular Malaysia: Distribution of Ethnic Malay Share of Electorate, FELDA vs. Non-FELDA Constituencies, 2018 213 19-J06064 00a The Defeat of Barisan Nasional.indd 9 28/11/19 11:23 AM x List of Figures 9.4 FELDA Parliamentary Constituency Results, 2004–18 216 9.5 Winning Vote Margins for FELDA Parliamentary Constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia, GE-11 to GE-14 217 9.6 Ethnic Composition of FELDA Constituencies, 2018 219 9.7 Winning Vote Margins and Voter Ethnic Composition, FELDA Parliamentary Constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia (GE-14) 220 9.8 Distribution of FELDA Schemes within Parliamentary Constituencies, 2018 223 10.1 Established “Chinese-Based” Parties (MCA, DAP, Gerakan, SUPP): Number of Parliamentary Seats Won, 1969–2018 237 10.2 Peninsular Malaysia Parliamentary Constituencies: Share of Chinese among Registered Voters and GE-14 Winner 249 10.3 Sabah and Sarawak Parliamentary Constituencies: Share of Chinese among Registered Voters and GE-14 Winner 250 11.1 Proportion of Indian Voters by Constituency in Peninsular Malaysia, 2018 265 12.1 Barisan Nasional in Selangor: General Election Results, 1959–2018 282 12.2 GE-13 in Selangor: Malay Share
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