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November 2020 EPP Party Barometer November 2020 The Situation of the European People’s Party in the EU (as of: 23 November 2020) Dr Olaf Wientzek (Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de Höhle, HA Kommunikation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung) Summary & latest developments (I) • In national polls, the EPP family are the strongest political family in 12 countries (including Fidesz); the Socialist political family in 6, the Liberals/Renew in 4, far-right populists (ID) in 2, and the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in 1. Added together, independent parties lead in Latvia. No polls/elections have taken place in France since the EP elections. • The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party family: then the EPP is ahead in 12 countries (if you include the suspended Fidesz), the Socialists in 7, the Liberals in 4, far-right populists (ID) in 2, and the ECR in one land. • 10 (9 without Orbán) of the 27 Heads of State and Government in the European Council currently belong to the EPP family, 7 to the Liberals/Renew, 6 to the Social Democrats / Socialists, 1 to the Eurosceptic conservatives, and 2 are formally independent. The party of the Slovak head of government belongs to the EPP group but not (yet) to the EPP party; if you include him in the EPP family, there would be 11 (without Orbán 10). • In many countries, the lead is extremely narrow, or, depending on the polls, another party family is ahead (including Italy, Sweden, Latvia, Belgium, Poland). Summary & latest developments (II) • In Romania, the PNL (EPP) has a good starting position for the elections (Dec. 2020), but the PSD is catching up in the polls. Nonetheless, the PNL is ahead with the prospect of forming a coalition. • In Bulgaria (elections in 2021), the popularity of GERB declined further (although, in other polls, a recovery process began to show in November). • In the Czech Republic (elections in 2021), KDU-CSL, TOP09 came again close to the 5% mark; STAN (EPP group, not EPP party) stood at 7%-11.5%. • In Poland, the PiS has lost a great deal in the polls; the EPP parties hardly benefit from this. By contrast, the movement of the former presidential candidate Hołownia, roughly in the centre-right political spectrum, holds its ground in the polls as the third-strongest force. • In Slovakia, approval for OL‘ANO, the party of the former Slovak prime minister (EPP group in the European Parliament, but not [yet] EPP member), has declined compared with the election in the spring; however, it is still far ahead of the other EPP member parties. • In Cyprus (elections in 2021), the DISY is ahead; the margin differs greatly, depending on the poll, though. • A clear victory for the TS-LKD in Lithuania in the parliamentary elections, whose candidate (no party affiliation) holds the position of prime minister. • In the Netherlands (elections in March 2021), the CDA is fluctuating around 10% and competes with other parties for third place; well behind the VVD (ALDE) and the right-wing populist PVV. Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest political family in national polls (November 2020) Sweden Finland EPP family (shaded: membership suspended) PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals) Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents No parliamentary polls since Poland the EP election Germany Slovakia Belgium Czech Republic Luxembourg Hungary* 4. Romania France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2. 1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest single party in national polls (November 2020) Sweden Finland EPP Family PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals) Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland Germany Slovakia Belgium Czech Republic Luxembourg Hungary 4. Romania France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2. 1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Strength of the largest EPP partner party in each country Picture credits: fotolia.com Election results of the largest EPP member party at the last national parliamentary election Sweden (2022) 19.84 as a percentage/next expected election date in brackets Finland (2023) 17.00 Legend 0 – 5% Estonia (2023) 5 – 10% 11.41 10 – 15% Latvia (2022) 15 – 20% 6.69 Denmark (2023) 20 – 25% Lithuania (2024) 6.60 25 – 30% Ireland (2025) 25.77 30 – 35% 20.90 Netherlands (2021) 12.40 35 – 40% Poland (2023) 40 – 50% 27.40** Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 32.90 5.80 4.60 (25.02) Belgium (2024) Czech Republic (2021) 8.89 Luxembourg (2023) 28.31 Hungary (2022) 4. 49.27 Romania (2020) France (2022) 20.04 22.23 Italy (2023) 14.01 Croatia (2024) 37.26 Bulgaria (2021) 2. 32.65 1. Austria (2024) Portugal (2023) Spain (2023) 37.54 27.80 Greece (2023) 20.82 Slovenia (2022) 39.85 24.92 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Poll ratings of the strongest EPP member parties as of: November 2020 as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden (Mod.) not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 22.40 Legend Finland (KOK) 0 – 5% 16.60 5 – 10% 10 – 15% Estonia (IRL) 15 – 20% 6.00 20 – 25% Latvia (V) 14.00 25 – 30% Denmark (DKF) 30 – 35% Lithuania (TS-LKD) 9.50 35 – 40% Ireland (FG) 40 – 50% 31.00 Netherlands (CDA) 10.80 > 50% Poland (PO/KO) Very recently 28.02 Germany (CDU/CSU) held election or no Slovakia (KDH) poll since EP election 36.00 ** in the 2017 elections, the KDU-CSL was 5.50 4.40 (16.60) still the strongest EPP partner party. In this Belgium*** (CD&V) Czech Republic (TOP09**) poll, however, TOP09 is stronger than the 6.62 KDU-CSL. Luxembourg (CSV) *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to 27.50 Hungary* (Fidesz) suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. EPP on 20 March 2019 49.00 Romania (PNL) 32.60 France (LR) Italy 6.60 (FI) Croatia (HDZ) 33.40 Bulgaria (GERB)) 2. 24.10 1. Austria (ÖVP) Portugal PSD) Spain (PP) 41.00 29.70 Greece (ND) 23.20 Slovenia (SDS) 45.00 29.39 Cyprus (DISY) Malta (PN) 30.50 Created by: Olaf Wientzek 41.90 Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the strongest EPP parties’ November 2020 poll ratings with the previous national election as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets +2.56 Legend Finland -10 to - 20% -0.40 - 5 to - 10% - 1 to - 5 % Estonia - 1 to + 1% -5.41 + 1 to + 5% Latvia +7.31 + 5 to + 10 % Denmark + 10 to + 20 % Lithuania +2.90 n.a. / Ireland No polls since +10.10 Netherlands since election, or -1.60 election took Poland place fewer than +0.62 six weeks ago Germany Slovakia +3.10 Czech Republic -0.20 (-8.42) Belgium*** +0.20 -2.27 Luxembourg*** *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to -0.81 Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. Romania EPP on 20 March 2019 France -0.27 +12.56 Italy -7.41 Croatia -3.86 Bulgaria 2. -8.55 1. Austria Portugal Spain +3.46 +1.90 +2.38 Greece Slovenia +5.15 +4.47 Cyprus Malta -0.19 Created by: Olaf Wientzek -1.78 Strength of the EPP family in EU member states Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the last national parliamentary elections as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in Sweden bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but 26.16 not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets Legend Finland 20.90 0 – 5% 5 – 10% Estonia 10 – 15% 11.41 15 – 20% Latvia 20 – 25% 6.69 25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania 30 – 35% 8.30 Ireland 25.77 35 – 40% 20.90 Netherlands 40 – 50% 12.40 (18.80) Poland > 50% 35.95* Germany Slovakia 32.90 11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10) Belgium Czech Republic 12.59 Luxembourg 28.31 Hungary 4. 49.27 Romania France* 31.58 22.23 Italy 15.72 Croatia 37.26 Bulgaria 2. 35.71 1. Austria Portugal Spain 37.46 32.00 Greece 20.82 Slovenia 39.85 34.70 Cyprus Malta 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in national polls as of: November 2020 as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden (2022) not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 29.30 Legend Finland (2023) 0 – 5% 20.60 5 – 10% 10 – 15% Estonia (2023) 15 – 20% 6.00 20 – 25% Latvia (2022) 14.00 25 – 30% Denmark (2023) 30 – 35% Lithuania (2024) 12.00 35 – 40% Ireland (2025) 40 – 50% 31.00 Netherlands (2021) 10.80 (16.20) > 50% Poland (2023) 33.83 Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 36.00 9.50 (20.50) 9.20 (25.80) Belgium*** (2024) Czech Republic (2021) 9.89 Luxembourg*** (2023) *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to 27.50 Hungary* (2022) suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4.
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