EPP Party Barometer November 2020

The Situation of the European People’s Party in the EU

(as of: 23 November 2020)

Dr Olaf Wientzek

(Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de Höhle, HA Kommunikation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung) Summary & latest developments (I)

• In national polls, the EPP family are the strongest political family in 12 countries (including ); the Socialist political family in 6, the Liberals/Renew in 4, far-right populists (ID) in 2, and the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in 1. Added together, independent parties lead in Latvia. No polls/elections have taken place in France since the EP elections. • The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party family: then the EPP is ahead in 12 countries (if you include the suspended Fidesz), the Socialists in 7, the Liberals in 4, far-right populists (ID) in 2, and the ECR in one land. • 10 (9 without Orbán) of the 27 Heads of State and Government in the currently belong to the EPP family, 7 to the Liberals/Renew, 6 to the Social Democrats / Socialists, 1 to the Eurosceptic conservatives, and 2 are formally independent. The party of the Slovak head of government belongs to the EPP group but not (yet) to the EPP party; if you include him in the EPP family, there would be 11 (without Orbán 10). • In many countries, the lead is extremely narrow, or, depending on the polls, another party family is ahead (including Italy, Sweden, Latvia, Belgium, Poland). Summary & latest developments (II) • In Romania, the PNL (EPP) has a good starting position for the elections (Dec. 2020), but the PSD is catching up in the polls. Nonetheless, the PNL is ahead with the prospect of forming a coalition. • In Bulgaria (elections in 2021), the popularity of GERB declined further (although, in other polls, a recovery process began to show in November). • In the (elections in 2021), KDU-CSL, TOP09 came again close to the 5% mark; STAN (EPP group, not EPP party) stood at 7%-11.5%. • In Poland, the PiS has lost a great deal in the polls; the EPP parties hardly benefit from this. By contrast, the movement of the former presidential candidate Hołownia, roughly in the centre-right , holds its ground in the polls as the third-strongest force. • In Slovakia, approval for OL‘ANO, the party of the former Slovak prime minister (EPP group in the , but not [yet] EPP member), has declined compared with the election in the spring; however, it is still far ahead of the other EPP member parties. • In Cyprus (elections in 2021), the DISY is ahead; the margin differs greatly, depending on the poll, though. • A clear victory for the TS-LKD in Lithuania in the parliamentary elections, whose candidate (no party affiliation) holds the position of prime minister. • In the Netherlands (elections in March 2021), the CDA is fluctuating around 10% and competes with other parties for third place; well behind the VVD (ALDE) and the right-wing populist PVV. Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest political family in national polls (November 2020) Sweden

Finland EPP family (shaded: membership suspended)

PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)

Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents

No parliamentary polls since Poland the EP election Germany Slovakia

Belgium Czech Republic

Luxembourg Hungary* 4. Romania France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest single party in national polls (November 2020) Sweden

Finland EPP Family

PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)

Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland

Germany Slovakia

Belgium Czech Republic

Luxembourg Hungary 4. Romania France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Strength of the largest EPP partner party in each country Picture credits: fotolia.com Election results of the largest EPP member party at the last national parliamentary election Sweden (2022) 19.84 as a percentage/next expected election date in brackets Finland (2023) 17.00 Legend

0 – 5% Estonia (2023) 5 – 10% 11.41 10 – 15% Latvia (2022) 15 – 20% 6.69 Denmark (2023) 20 – 25% Lithuania (2024) 6.60 25 – 30% Ireland (2025) 25.77 30 – 35% 20.90 Netherlands (2021) 12.40 35 – 40% Poland (2023) 40 – 50% 27.40** Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 32.90 5.80 4.60 (25.02) Belgium (2024) Czech Republic (2021) 8.89 Luxembourg (2023) 28.31 Hungary (2022) 4. 49.27 Romania (2020) France (2022) 20.04 22.23 Italy (2023) 14.01 Croatia (2024) 37.26 Bulgaria (2021) 2. 32.65 1. Austria (2024) Portugal (2023) Spain (2023) 37.54 27.80 Greece (2023) 20.82 Slovenia (2022) 39.85 24.92 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Poll ratings of the strongest EPP member parties as of: November 2020 as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden (Mod.) not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 22.40 Legend Finland (KOK) 0 – 5% 16.60 5 – 10%

10 – 15% Estonia (IRL) 15 – 20% 6.00 20 – 25% Latvia (V) 14.00 25 – 30% Denmark (DKF) 30 – 35% Lithuania (TS-LKD) 9.50 35 – 40% Ireland (FG) 40 – 50% 31.00 Netherlands (CDA) 10.80 > 50% Poland (PO/KO) Very recently 28.02 Germany (CDU/CSU) held election or no Slovakia (KDH) poll since EP election 36.00 ** in the 2017 elections, the KDU-CSL was 5.50 4.40 (16.60) still the strongest EPP partner party. In this Belgium*** (CD&V) Czech Republic (TOP09**) poll, however, TOP09 is stronger than the 6.62 KDU-CSL. Luxembourg (CSV) *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to 27.50 Hungary* (Fidesz) suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. EPP on 20 March 2019 49.00 Romania (PNL) 32.60 France (LR) Italy 6.60 (FI) Croatia (HDZ) 33.40 Bulgaria (GERB)) 2. 24.10 1. Austria (ÖVP) Portugal PSD) Spain (PP) 41.00 29.70 Greece (ND) 23.20 Slovenia (SDS) 45.00 29.39

Cyprus (DISY) Malta (PN) 30.50 Created by: Olaf Wientzek 41.90 Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the strongest EPP parties’ November 2020 poll ratings with the previous national election as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets +2.56 Legend Finland -10 to - 20% -0.40 - 5 to - 10%

- 1 to - 5 % Estonia - 1 to + 1% -5.41 + 1 to + 5% Latvia +7.31 + 5 to + 10 % Denmark + 10 to + 20 % Lithuania +2.90 n.a. / Ireland No polls since +10.10 Netherlands since election, or -1.60 election took Poland place fewer than +0.62 six weeks ago Germany Slovakia +3.10 Czech Republic -0.20 (-8.42) Belgium*** +0.20 -2.27 Luxembourg*** *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to -0.81 Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. Romania EPP on 20 March 2019 France -0.27 +12.56 Italy -7.41 Croatia -3.86 Bulgaria 2. -8.55 1. Austria Portugal Spain +3.46 +1.90 +2.38 Greece Slovenia +5.15 +4.47

Cyprus Malta -0.19 Created by: Olaf Wientzek -1.78 Strength of the EPP family in EU member states Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the last national parliamentary elections

as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in Sweden bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but 26.16 not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets Legend Finland 20.90 0 – 5%

5 – 10% Estonia 10 – 15% 11.41 15 – 20% Latvia 20 – 25% 6.69

25 – 30% Denmark Lithuania 30 – 35% 8.30 Ireland 25.77 35 – 40% 20.90 Netherlands 40 – 50% 12.40 (18.80) Poland > 50% 35.95* Germany Slovakia 32.90 11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10) Belgium Czech Republic 12.59 Luxembourg 28.31 Hungary 4. 49.27 Romania France* 31.58 22.23 Italy 15.72 Croatia 37.26 Bulgaria 2. 35.71 1. Austria Portugal Spain 37.46 32.00 Greece 20.82 Slovenia 39.85 34.70 Cyprus Malta 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in national polls as of: November 2020 as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden (2022) not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 29.30 Legend Finland (2023) 0 – 5% 20.60 5 – 10%

10 – 15% Estonia (2023) 15 – 20% 6.00 20 – 25% Latvia (2022) 14.00 25 – 30% Denmark (2023) 30 – 35% Lithuania (2024) 12.00 35 – 40% Ireland (2025) 40 – 50% 31.00 Netherlands (2021) 10.80 (16.20) > 50% Poland (2023) 33.83 Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 36.00 9.50 (20.50) 9.20 (25.80) Belgium*** (2024) Czech Republic (2021) 9.89 Luxembourg*** (2023) *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to 27.50 Hungary* (2022) suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. 49.00 Romania(2020) EPP on 20 March 2019 France (2022) 42.50 Italy (2023) Croatia (2024) 7.20 33.40 Bulgaria (2021) 2. 32.90 1. Austria (2024) Portugal (2023) Spain (2023) 41.00 32.40 Greece (2023) 23.20 Slovenia (2022) 45.00 38.04 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.50 Created by: Olaf Wientzek 41.90 Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of November 2020 poll results of all EPP parties compared to

last national elections (cumulative) Sweden +3.14 Legend Finland -10 to - 20% -0.30 - 5 to - 10%

- 1 to - 5% Estonia - 1 to + 1% -5.41 + 1 to + 5% Latvia +7.31 + 5 to + 10% Denmark Above + 10% Lithuania +3.70 No polls since Ireland since election, or +10.10 Netherlands election took place -1.60 (-2.60) fewer than six weeks Poland ago -2.12 Germany Slovakia +3.10 Belgium*** Czech Republic -4.88 (-13.30) +2.60 -1.61 (+4.09)

Luxembourg *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to -0.81 Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. -0.27 Romania EPP on 20 March 2019 France +10.92 Italy Croatia -8.52 -3.86 Bulgaria 2. -2.81 1. Austria Portugal Spain +3.46 +0.40 +2.38 Greece Slovenia +5.15 +3.34

Cyprus Malta -0.19 Created by: Olaf Wientzek -1.78 Does the “COVID-19 crisis effect” continue? Does the “COVID-19 crisis effect” continue? • Short answer: noticeable reduction of the “COVID-19 crisis effect”, i.e. the support for the party of the head of government or head of state that could often still be observed at the beginning of the crisis is now only observed in a minority of EU countries. • Long answer: In 6-7 EU countries where polls have been conducted since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the party of the incumbent head of state or government can report a significant boost in support compared to March 2020 (in the case of France, only support for the president can be measured). – In a few countries, the largest government party even lost support; but in many cases, this is likely not due to the perception of the COVID-19 management but to other factors (new government, protests over other issues). – In some countries, a decline in the COVID-19 boost has already been observed (compared to August or May); in countries in which it still continues, the level is often lower than in May or in August. – In Germany, this effect is quite pronounced in a European comparison. – Junior coalition partners profit significantly less frequently from the COVID-19 solidarity effect. – In general, changes in the polls may also involve aspects that are NOT related to the government’s COVID-19 management. Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. November 2020 A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the coronavirus and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls exhibit a mixed Sweden picture Legend Finland Very negative (losses of more than 10%)

Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)

Lower losses (2 to 5%) Estonia No significant change or varied data

Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia

Positive (+ 5 to + 10%) Denmark Extremely positive (gains Lithuania *In Ireland, the prime minister will of more than 10%) switch between FG and FF; currently, FG Ireland* in a strong position; FF (has currently n.a. / the office of Taoiseach) similar to No new poll Netherlands March. **As no up-to-date polls are available since election, or from France, the comparison only election took place Poland relates to the regularly surveyed fewer than six weeks - popularity of the president ago Germany Slovakia *** The prime minister of Italy is not affiliated with a party. The popularity in Czech Republic this case relates to the largest Belgium government party.

Luxembourg Hungary 4. Romania France** Italy*** Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. August 2020 A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the coronavirus and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls exhibit a mixed Sweden picture Legend Finland Very negative (losses of more than 10%)

Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)

Lower losses (2 to 5%) Estonia No significant change or varied data

Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia

Positive (+ 5 to + 10%) Denmark Extremely positive (gains Lithuania*** of more than 10%) n.a. / Ireland (only based on FG) *No polls since the beginning of the corona crisis No polls since Netherlands **As no up-to-date polls are available election or formation from France, the comparison only of government, or Poland relates to the regularly surveyed elections took place - popularity of the president fewer than 6 weeks Germany ago Slovakia *** The prime ministers of Italy and Lithuania are independent. In this case, Czech Republic the poll ratings relate to the largest Belgium* governing party or the party the prime ministers belonged to previously Luxembourg* Hungary 4. Romania France** Italy*** Croatia Bulgaria* 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. May 2020 A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the coronavirus and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls exhibit a mixed Sweden picture Legend Finland Very negative (losses of more than 10%)

Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)

Lower losses (2 to 5%) Estonia No significant change or different data

Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia

Positive (+ 5 to + 10%) Denmark Extremely positive (gains Lithuania*** of more than 10%) *No polls since the beginning of the n.a. / Ireland corona crisis No polls since Netherlands **As no up-to-date polls are available since election, or from France, the comparison only election took Poland relates to the regularly surveyed place fewer than - popularity of the president six weeks ago Germany Slovakia *** The prime ministers of Italy and Lithuania are independent. In this case, Czech Republic the poll ratings relate to the largest Belgium* governing party or the party the prime ministers belonged to previously Luxembourg* Hungary 4. Romania France** Italy*** Croatia Bulgaria* 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus* Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek The EPP family’s participation in government Picture credits: fotolia.com The participation of EPP family parties in government,

as of 25 November 2020₁ Sweden

Finland

Government without the participation of an EPP party, but with a representative in the European Council belonging to the EPP family Estonia Parties in the EPP family involved in government (shaded top left to bottom right: Latvia outgoing government; participation unclear) Head of state/government belongs to the EPP family (shaded top left to bottom right: Denmark Lithuania*** ***The TS-LKD is the largest outgoing/incoming government) governing party; prime minister Simonyte is not affiliated with a party; however, she was the Ireland Netherlands candidate for the office of prime minister on the part of TS-LKD. Poland

Germany Slovakia** **The party to which Slovakia’s head of government belongs is part of the EPP bloc in the European Belgium Czech Republic Parliament but is not part of the EPP party Luxembourg *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the 4. Romania EPP on 20 March 2019 France Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Heads of State or Government and their political family (as of: 25 November 2020) (The constitutionally stronger position and, in the case of EU countries, Sweden participation in the European Council is reflected on the map)

Finland EPP: Christian Democrats, Centre-Right Parties

PES/S&D: Social Democrats & Socialists

ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives Estonia AALDE +Renew (mainly Liberals)

The Greens/EFA Latvia Misc. populists ****President Nauseda is Denmark Lithuania**** independent, prime minister Far-left populists (GUE/NGL) Simonyte is not affiliated with a party, but she was the candidate for Far-right populists Ireland the office of prime minister on the Netherlands part of TS-LKD. Independents *** outgoing (presumably) head of Poland government.

Germany Slovakia** **The party to which Slovakia’s head of government belongs is part of the EPP bloc in the European Belgium*** Czech Republic Parliament but is not part of the EPP party Luxembourg Hungary* *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to 4. Romania₁ suspend Fidesz’s membership in the France EPP on 20 March 2019 Italy² Croatia

Bulgaria 2.

1. Austria Portugal Spain Greece Slovenia

Cyprus ²Conte is independent but is Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek closely affiliated with the Five Star Movement Picture credits: fotolia.com The EPP Family in the EU – Which parties belong to the EPP? Sweden Moderaterna (MOD) Kristdemokraterna (KD) Finland Kokoomus (SK) KD

Estonia Latvia Vienotiba

Denmark Lithuania DKF (C) TS-LKD Ireland KD Netherlands CDA Poland PO Germany PSL Slovakia CDU Czech Republic KDH CSU KDU-CSL Belgium Most-Hid TOP 09 CD&V, CDH, CSP² SMK Luxembourg Spolu Hungary CSV *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to 4. Fidesz* / Romania France* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the KDNP PNL EPP on 20 March 2019 Les Républicains Italy PMP Croatia RMDSZ SVP HDZ Bulgaria 2. AP GERB 1. Austria UDC BCM PATT DSB Portugal ÖVP (NVP) Spain PdI UDF PSD Greece PP CDS-PP Slovenia SDS ND N.Si SLS Cyprus Malta DISY Created by: Olaf Wientzek PN Notes

* In Poland, the two EPP parties each led alliances that also included non-EPP parties. ** In France, no polls for national parliamentary elections have been conducted since the parliamentary elections in June 2017. The results relate to the second round of the parliamentary elections. *** Polls conducted at regional level. In order to obtain an adequate result at national level, these results were each weighted according to the number of eligible voters (there is compulsory voting). Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur. In Belgium, the CD&V, CSP and CDH partner parties only compete regionally. The results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only competes in European elections. At national elections, it is a part of the CDH since the Belgian parliament is composed according to regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not according to language community. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur.

Further notes: In several countries (including Slovenia, Bulgaria and Latvia), undecided and non-voters are included as part of the total sum (100%) in the polls. The poll results are extrapolated accordingly. Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote and 20% of the respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.

In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties owing to the fact they form a single parliamentary bloc and that their poll results are always added together.

In several countries, parties are part of the EPP bloc without belonging to the EPP. Some of them even belong to other party families, for example, CU and 50 Plus in the Netherlands, STAN in Czech Republic and OL’ANO in Slovakia. Their respective results are given in brackets.

Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist elements. As the ACRE family is now (or is for the time being) a mainstream party family, the parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as “right-wing populist”. By contrast, the “right-wing populist” category contains parties belonging to the ENF or the EFDD Group in the European Parliament, as well as other right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.

1 The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of state (where the government’s political affiliation is divergent) are only shown (separately) when they are represented in the European Council (e.g. Klaus Johannis in Romania). In the case of France, the EPP is not shown as participating in government as the EPP’s official party there is not part of the government.

Sources for polls: Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Bulgaria), Voxmeter (Denmark), Forsa (Germany), Norstat (Estonia), Tal (Finland), IfoP (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), BA (Ireland), Euromedia (Italy), Promocija Pius (Croatia), Factum (Latvia), Spinter tymai (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands) RA (Austria), Ibris (Poland), eurosondagem (Portugal), IMAS (Romania), Demoskop (Sweden), AKO (Slovakia), Ninamedia (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czech Republic), Zavecz (Hungary), Prime (Cyprus)

Contact person Dr Olaf Wientzek Email: [email protected] / [email protected]