To Elif, Cüneyt and Mahir EXPLAINING DURATION OF LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN ARAB UPRISINGS THROUGH PERCEIVED POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURES: COMPARING EGYPT AND SYRIA The Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by OSMAN BAHADIR DİNÇER In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SICENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA September 2016 ABSTRACT EXPLAINING DURATION OF LEADERSHIP CHANGE IN ARAB UPRISINGS THROUGH PERCEIVED POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURES: COMPARING EGYPT AND SYRIA Dinçer, Osman Bahadır Ph. D., Department of Political Science and Public Administration Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Dr. Saime Özçürümez Bölükbaşı September 2016 Egyptian President Mubarak was forced to leave office after turbulent public protests that lasted eighteen days in 2011. Yet, in the Syrian case, we have currently been witnessing a completely different state of affairs. Hence, this comparative work is an attempt at exploring the dynamics of change within the context of domestic politics in two of the most important ‘Arab Spring’ countries, Egypt and Syria. The present research seeks to answer the following question: During the recent uprisings in the Arab world, why has the removal from office of the incumbent leader is less likely in Syria when compared to Egypt? The purpose of this research is two-fold. First, it investigates whether or not the historical trajectories [particularly from early 1970s to 2011] of these two states indicate a substantial difference in terms of being politically open or closed and in having different institutions with different characteristics. Second, it examines to what extent the strategies implemented by the regimes during the uprisings (January 25, 2011- February 11, 2011 [Egypt] and March 2011-2014 iii [Syria]) influence the claim-making capabilities of those opposition groups and the structure of elite alliances within the society and political scene. This work mainly follows the ‘political process’ (political opportunity structures) and ‘framing’ understandings of recent social movement literature, which describe the available and perceived opportunities and constraints of a political and institutional environment in which actors operate. Apart from the theoretical frameworks, the concept of ‘Social Drama’, envisaged by Victor Turner, has been employed as a convenient template to render the dynamics of the political processes under investigation more comprehensible. The data from large numbers of in-depth interviews with over 60 local informants is supported by an extensive literature review that includes very recent scholarly works in order to achieve more accurate claims. What is aimed at here is understanding this particular region better based on theoretically informed in-depth case studies, complemented by comparisons. Keywords: Arab Spring, Egypt, Framing, Political Opportunity Structure, Social Drama, Syria iv ÖZET ARAP AYAKLANMALARINDAKİ LİDER DEĞİŞİM SÜRELERİNİN ALGILANAN SİYASİ FIRSAT YAPILARI BAĞLAMINDA AÇIKLANMASI: MISIR VE SURİYE KARŞILAŞTIRMASI Dinçer, Osman Bahadır Doktora, Siyaset Bilimi ve Kamu Yönetimi Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Saime Özçürümez Bölükbaşı Eylül 2016 Mısır Cumhurbaşkanı Mübarek 2011 yılında 18 gün süren protestolar neticesinde görevini bırakmak zorunda kalırken Suriye’de halen bambaşka bir sürece şahitlik ediyoruz. Bu mukayeseli çalışma, Arap Baharı ülkeleri arasında önemli konumda olan Mısır ve Suriye’de iç politikada yaşanan siyasi değişim dinamiklerini açıklama gayretidir. Çalışmanın temel sorusu: Arap dünyasında yaşanan son ayaklanmalar sürecinde mevcut liderlerin koltuğundan edilme ihtimali Mısır ile kıyaslandığında Suriye’de neden daha düşüktür? Bu araştırmanın amacı iki aşamalıdır. İlk olarak her iki devletin tarihi gelişimlerinin [özellikle 1970-2011 arası] siyasi anlamda açık veya kapalı olmaları ve farklı özellikleri haiz kurumlara sahip olup olmamaları noktasında önemli bir fark ortaya koyup koymadığı incelenmektedir. İkinci olarak da ayaklanmalar esnasında [Mısır; 25 Ocak-11 Şubat 2011 ve Suriye; Mart 2011-2014] rejimlerin uyguladıkları stratejilerin muhalif grupların hak talep etme kapasitelerine ve toplumsal ve siyasal düzlemdeki elitler arası ittifak yapısına ne dereceye kadar etki ettiğini analiz etmektedir. v Bu çalışma esas itibariyle sosyal hareketler literatüründe aktörlerin varlık gösterdiği bir siyasi ve kurumsal yapının mevcut ve algılanan fırsatlarını ve kısıtlamalarını tanımlayan ‘siyasal süreç’ (siyasi fırsat yapıları) ve ‘çerçeveleme’ yaklaşımlarını teorik olarak takip etmektedir. Bu teorik çerçevenin yanı sıra Victor Turner’ın ‘Sosyal Drama’ kavramı da incelenen mevcut siyasi süreç dinamiklerini daha anlaşılır kılabilmek için uygun bir şablon olarak kullanılmıştır. 60’dan fazla yerel aktörle yapılmış derinlemesine mülakatlardan elde edilen bulgular daha sağlam ve doğru çıkarımlarda bulunabilmek amacıyla son dönem çalışmaların da dahil olduğu ikincil literatür taraması ile desteklenmiştir. Bu çalışmayla amaçlanan mukayeseli bir yaklaşımla teorik olarak derinlemesine incelenmiş vaka çalışmaları ile belli bir bölgeyi daha iyi anlayabilmektir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Arap Baharı, Çerçeveleme, Mısır, Siyasi Fırsat Yapıları, Sosyal Drama, Suriye vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I should admit that research and writing period of this dissertation was a long, tiring and painful process for me because of two reasons. First, I tried to manage the whole process while I was working as a researcher at a research institute. It was a serious challenge to balance my academic and professional lives. Second, I have been through a major personal challenge in my family life. Our second son, Mahir was born with severe combined immunodeficiency. My wife, who is a medical doctor, and Mahir were bound to stay in the hospital for almost a year for the bone marrow transplant. We learned as a family how to struggle with this challenge, and our older son Cuneyt was one of our biggest supporters even though he was only two and a half years older than Mahir. I always felt as though I was rowing against a strong current but I always had Elif (my wife) and Cuneyt (my older son) with me as we held the hand of Mahir. I owe my family a big thanks. I wish Mahir and Cuneyt both grow up to read this acknowledgment and know that they have been part of an academic process since the very early years of their lives. I am and will remain very proud of them all. At the end of the day, I have a completed Ph.D. dissertation. I have felt very fortunate for having a very distinguished and engaged dissertation committee. I enjoyed the invaluable academic support of Professor Saime Özçürümez, Professor Özlem Tür and Professor Ioannis Grigoriadis throughout many thesis progress committee meetings and in between. I observed from them that encouragement and appreciation motivates a Ph.D. candidate more than any other way of behavior. I would like to thank them for showing me that praise as the best motivator. I always walked out of my thesis committee meetings ready to take on more challenges, thank you. vii The role of my supervisor, Professor Özçürümez, throughout the process was beyond just being a mentor and supervisor to me. She was exceptional. I would like to express my gratitude for her continuous support of my Ph.D study and related research, for her patience, motivation, intelligence, sharp observations and immense knowledge. Her guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better mentor for my Ph.D study. She continually and convincingly conveyed a spirit of adventure and positive energy with respect to research and scholarship. Without her guidance and persistent help this dissertation would not have been possible. Professor Tür, whom I have known for more than ten years, has been the key figure in my journey to the Middle East studies throughout the years. Her advice on both research as well as on my career have been outstanding. Her questions and comments have helped shape and refine my dissertation; and her encouragement has eased many doubts about the content and the context of the research along the way. I also would like to thank Dr. Ioannis Grigoriadis, for his insightful comments and encouragement, but also for the hard question which invited me to go deeper into the empirical data. I would also like to thank my defense committee members, Professor Zeynep Kadirbeyoğlu, Professor Başak İnce and Professor Ali Bilgiç who have closely read and commented on the last draft of the dissertation. As my oral defense was a challenging moment, I will always remember their diligence and full attention to my work as a compliment that one rarely receives. Their scholarly engagement with my research taught me how students feel about pursuing academic careers by taking example of dedicated scholars like themselves. I would like to extend a special thanks to all three of them. Even though I tried to cite the challenges of working while pursuing a PhD study above hand, I could not disregard the countless benefits of it. This holds true particularly if you are employed in a job in which you can fruitfully employ and cultivate your own research interests on the one hand while you continuously acquire a formal education in your doctoral study. I was lucky as I worked as a researcher at USAK where a few fertile minds came together and tried to produce empirically solid and scholarly