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Final Report on the Freight and Logistics Model

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Final Report on the Freight and Logistics Model SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME [SST.2010.1.3-1.] [Transport modelling for policy impact assessments] Grant agreement for: Coordination and support action Acronym: Transtools 3 Full title: „Research and development of the European Transport Network Model – Transtools Version 3 Proposal/Contract no.: MOVE/FP7/266182/TRANSTOOLS 3 Start date: 1st March 2011 Duration: 70 months Deliverable 7.2 – Final report on the freight and logistics model Document number: TT3_WP7_D7.2_Freight and logistics model_3.0 Work package: WP7 Deliverable nature: Report Dissemination level: Public Lead beneficiary: DTU, participant 1, Otto Anker Nielsen Due date of deliverable: 30.06.2016 Date of preparation of deliverable: 25.08.2016 Date of last change: 11.11.2016 Date of approval by Commission: 01.12.2016 Abstract: This report D7.2 of the Transtools 3 project contains descriptions (including the mathematical equations) of the estimation results for models explaining the flows of goods per commodity class between zones in Europe (trade models) using aggregate data on these flows in combination with explanatory variables on the zones and the transport resistance between each pair of zones. It also contains outcomes for unit cost functions for road, rail, inland waterways, sea and air transport as well estimation results for the logistics model (transport chain choice model) on disaggregate data sources (the French ECHO survey; the Swedish Commodity Flow survey 2009) and level-of-service information from the networks. Keywords: Freight transport model, logistics model, trade model, freight transport cost functions Author(s): de Jong, Gerard; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Mikkel Thorhauge, Henriques, Michael, Tanner, Reto; Johnson, Daniel; Dekker, Thijs; Sowa, Victor; Vierth, Inge; Bates, John; Jeppe, Rich Disclaimer: The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the European Union. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained in the report. Draft report on the freight and logistics model (D7.2) Report version 3 August 2016 By: de Jong, Gerard; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Mikkel Thorhauge, Henriques, Michael, Tanner, Reto; Johnson, Daniel; Dekker, Thijs; Sowa, Victor; Vierth, Inge; Bates, John; Jeppe, Rich Copyright: Reproduction of this publication in whole or in part must include the customary bibliographic citation, including author attribution, report title, etc. Published by: Department of Management Engineering, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark Request report www.man.dtu.dk from: Table of Contents List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................. 5 List of Figures ....................................................................................................... 8 List of Tables ........................................................................................................ 9 Summary ............................................................................................................ 12 1. Introduction ................................................................................................ 13 1.1 Objective of the deliverable ...................................................................................................13 1.2 Methodology and reading guidance ........................................................................................13 1.3 Main results .........................................................................................................................16 2. Freight and Logistics Model flow .................................................................. 17 2.1 Main freight and logistics model functionality .........................................................................17 2.2 Level of service calculations (1) .............................................................................................22 2.3 Demand response .................................................................................................................25 2.4 Route choice and network loading ..........................................................................................26 3. The Trade model ......................................................................................... 30 3.1 Adding World Bank GDP data ...............................................................................................30 3.2 New models at country level ..................................................................................................35 3.3 Model with fixed effects referring to the destination countries ..................................................39 3.4 Model with random effects referring to the destination countries ..............................................41 3.5 Estimating the Heckman model..............................................................................................43 3.6 Models with logsum from the logistic model ...........................................................................47 3.7 Models with logsum from the logistic model (2-step estimation)...............................................48 3.8 The preferred trade model .....................................................................................................49 3.9 Implementation of the trade model .........................................................................................50 4. The cost functions ....................................................................................... 53 4.1 Background ..........................................................................................................................53 4.2 Method ................................................................................................................................53 4.3 Description of the model .......................................................................................................54 4.4 Cost calculation ....................................................................................................................56 4.5 Infrastructure fees and taxes in the network.............................................................................67 5. Chain Level of Service Model and Chain Cost functions ................................. 70 5.1 Chain assignment .................................................................................................................70 5.2 Chain cost functions..............................................................................................................74 5.3 Comparison of costs..............................................................................................................95 5.4 Output from the chain assignment ........................................................................................100 6. The Logistics model .................................................................................. 102 TT3 D7.2 6.1 The Swedish Commodity Flow Survey 2009 .........................................................................103 6.2 The ECHO Dataset 2004 .....................................................................................................111 6.3 Estimation of the transport chain choice model .....................................................................117 6.4 Validation: Elasticities ........................................................................................................146 6.5 Implementation guide for Transtools3 ..................................................................................150 7. The base matrices ...................................................................................... 158 8. Conclusions and further work ..................................................................... 159 References ........................................................................................................ 161 Appendix .......................................................................................................... 166 Appendix A: Model estimations, CFS 1 ..........................................................................................167 Appendix B: Model estimations, ECHO 1 ..................................................................................168 Appendix C: Model estimations, JOINT 1 ..................................................................................169 Appendix D: Model estimations, CFS 2 .....................................................................................170 Appendix E: Model estimations, ECHO 2 ..................................................................................171 Appendix F: Model estimations, JOINT 2...................................................................................172 Appendix G: Model estimations, CFS 3 .....................................................................................173 Appendix H: Model estimations, 3 ..............................................................................................174 Appendix I: Model estimations, JOINT 3 ....................................................................................175 TT3 D7.2 List of Abbreviations Abbreviation Full word/phrase description ADA aggregate-disaggregate-aggregate ASC Alternative Specific Constants AVG Average BA Bosnia-Hercegovina BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis C Consumption CEMT Classification
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