RED STATE, BLUE STATE, RED NEWS, BLUE NEWS A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Communication, Culture and Technology By Niki L. Woodard, B.A. Washington, DC April 28, 2006 RED STATE, BLUE STATE, RED NEWS, BLUE NEWS Niki L. Woodard, B.A. Thesis Advisor: Diana Owen, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The phrase “red state, blue state” has set off a debate as divisive as the social trend it describes. This thesis not only recognizes the disparity in defining red states and blue states, but aims to both separate and bridge these differences while introducing a powerful explanatory variable to the discussion – the news media, or what will be referred to as “red news, blue news.” Scholars have approached the topic of American polarization in a variety of ways, namely by looking at the public’s differences on salient issues, the public’s electoral voting habits and the differences among political elites. While the “culture war” and the “red state, blue state” maps of the 2000 and 2004 elections are illustrative of the general debate over political polarization, these theories have ignored the impact of both the mass media and the alternative media. Since the news media is where most Americans gather their information on world, national and local affairs, this seems an obvious place to look for polarizing messages. This research is organized by an investigation of the demand-side and supply- side of media polarization. The demand-side study looks at ideological news audiences through a series of path analysis models using the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press 2004 media consumption survey. On the “supply side,” ii media polarization is demonstrated through a content analysis of 44 television news transcripts to quantify the amount of partisan news framing during the Senate confirmation hearings for Samuel Alito’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Through both of these quantitative studies, and complimented by a review of polarization literature, as well as interviews with political communication experts, the case is quite strong for the politically polarizing effects of the news media. Search terms: political polarization, “red state, blue state,” culture war, mass media, Fox News, Samuel Alito hearings iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am happy to take this opportunity to thank the many people who have accompanied me in so many different ways along this journey. First, I would like to thank my thesis advisor and academic guru, Dr. Diana Owen. From day one, she has been a source of guidance throughout my two years as a graduate student in the Communication, Culture and Technology program. Her wealth of patience and wisdom has been invaluable. I would also like to thank Dr. Stephen Farnsworth for luring me into the field of political communication in my first semester as a graduate student, and encouraging me in my endeavors ever since. Additional thanks go to Dr. Michael Coventry for introducing me to the creative world of film editing in his Pop Culture course. He was also an essential guide in the initial development of this thesis topic. I also extend my immense gratitude to Noelle McAffee, Scott Keeter, Ben Scott and Jim Lengle for kindly offering me their time and expertise for the documentary component of this thesis. A hearty thanks goes to my parents, Dan and Bonni Woodard, for instilling in me the moral conviction to aim for lofty goals, and the determination to achieve them. “Give me 100 push-ups, Dad.” I must also thank my friends and co-workers who have patiently dealt with my occasional lapses of grace in handling stress. And to all those who silently endured my sometimes zealous battles with SPSS in the computer lab, I’m sorry. And last, but certainly not least, I am grateful to both CCT and Georgetown University for equipping me with a well-rounded (though expensive) education and skill-set. Onward! iv TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE: Introduction ……………………………………………………………... 1 CHAPTER TWO: Red State, Blue State: Political Polarization in America The Seeds of Division ……………………………………………...…… 7 Making the Case for Partisan Polarization ………………………..……. 10 Regional Balkanization ………………………………………………… 12 Partisan Politics.....……………………………………………….………17 Issue Polarization ………………………………………………………. 21 Tables and Figures ...........................................………………………… 25 CHAPTER THREE: Red News, Blue News: Why the News Media Have Become Politically Polarized The Fragmentation of News Outlets ….………………………..…….... 32 Media Consolidation ..……………………………………………......... 38 Media as a Marketplace.........................………………………..…….... 41 A Talking Head Culture ..….……………………………………........... 45 CHAPTER FOUR: “Framing” the Red and Blue: The Theoretical Framework Media Effects ……………………………………………………...…… 52 Uses and Gratifications ………………………………………………… 57 Agenda-Setting ………………………………………………………… 58 Synthesizing the Effects......………………….………….………........… 61 CHAPTER FIVE: “Demand-side” Media Polarization: A Statistical Examination Overview: Partisan or Ideological? ….………………………………… 62 Hypotheses ..…………………………………………………………… 64 Methodology ………………………...………………………………… 65 Description of Data/Variables .………………………………………… 68 Data Analysis ………………………...…………………………………70 Summary of Findings …………………..……………………………… 78 Tables and Figures …..…………………………………………….…… 81 CHAPTER SIX: “Supply-side” Media Polarization: Content Analysis Overview.……………………………………………………………… 106 Hypotheses …………………………………………….……………… 107 Methodology.…………………………………………..……………… 107 Description of Data/Variables.………………………………….......… 110 Data Analysis and Findings …………………….…………………...... 114 Conclusion ……………………………………………………..…...… 121 Tables and Figures ………………………………………........………. 124 v CHAPTER SEVEN: Discussion with Experts ….....………………………… 136 CHAPTER EIGHT: Conclusion …………....................................……………148 REFERENCES ……………………...………………………………………... 156 APPENDIX A …………………………....................................……………… 162 APPENDIX B ……………………………………………………………........ 168 vi LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES CHAPTER TWO Figure 2.1: 2004 Electoral College Map ...........................................................…..25 Figure 2.2: 2004 Electoral Map, States within States..............................................26 Figure 2.3: 2004 Electoral Map with Counties Shaded Purple................................27 Table 2.1: Popular Vote, 2000, 2004........................................................................28 Table 2.2: Electoral College Votes, 1980-2004.......................................................29 Table 2.3: Polarized Messages in Newspapers on Election Eve, 2004....................30 CHAPTER FIVE Figure 5.1: ANES Ideology over Time....................................................................81 Figure 5.2: ANES Strength of Partisanship over time.............................................82 Figure 5.3: Pew, “News Audiences Increasingly Politicized”.................................83 Figure 5.4: Path Analysis Illustration for PID, rural, city, same view regressed onto news consumption................................................................................84 Figure 5.5: Path Analysis Illustration for ideology, rural, city, same view regressed onto news consumption...............................................................85 Table 5.1: Mean Percentages of News Media Consumption...................................86 Table 5.2: OLS Summary........................................................................................87 Table 5.3: Path Analysis--Network News/ PID.......................................................88 Table 5.4: Path Analysis--Network News/ Ideology...............................................89 Table 5.5: Path Analysis--Fox News/ PID...............................................................90 Table 5.6: Path Analysis--Fox News/ Ideology.......................................................91 Table 5.7: Path Analysis--CNN/ PID.......................................................................92 Table 5.8: Path Analysis--CNN/ Ideology...............................................................93 Table 5.9: Path Analysis--Lehrer/ PID.....................................................................94 Table 5.10: Path Analysis--Lehrer/ Ideology ..........................................................95 Table 5.11: Path Analysis--O'Reilly/ PID................................................................96 Table 5.12: Path Analysis--O'Reilly/ Ideology.........................................................97 Table 5.13: Path Analysis--NPR/ PID......................................................................98 Table 5.14: Path Analysis--NPR/ Ideology..............................................................99 Table 5.15: Path Analysis--Limbaugh/ PID............................................................100 Table 5.16: Path Analysis--Limbaugh/ Ideology....................................................101 Table 5.17: Path Analysis Summary, PID...............................................................102 Table 5.18: Path Analysis Summary, IDEOLOGY.................................................103 Table 5.19: Path Analysis/OLS Comparisons.........................................................104 Table 5.20: OLS Summaries, Reversed...................................................................105 CHAPTER SIX Table 6.1: Overall Mean Percentage of Seven Information Frames........................124