STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR A TURBULENT WORLD In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity Andrew R. Hoehn | Richard H. Solomon | Sonni Efron Frank Camm | Anita Chandra | Debra Knopman | Burgess Laird C O R P O R A T I O N Robert J. Lempert | Howard J. Shatz | Casimir Yost For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1631 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9692-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Pete Soriano Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This is the sixth and final volume in the RAND Strategic Rethink project. This series has developed conceptual perspectives on how U.S. thinking, institutions, and policies must adapt to the many changes in the international environment. Together, these studies help clarify the strategic choices facing the country in 2017 and beyond. The first volume, anchored by Ambassador James Dobbins, out- lines the foreign policy choices that U.S. policymakers now face in three critical regions—the Middle East, Europe, and Asia—as well as on such problems as counterterrorism, climate change, and cybersecurity. The second study, on national defense, by David Ochmanek and Andrew Hoehn, demonstrates that the United States suffers a “security deficit” between its stated military strategy and the resources allocated to its defense posture. It outlines what Americans can expect for their defense dollars at four different levels of spending, all of them lower than historic norms. And it argues that the United States must either spend more on its defenses or reduce its global security ambitions. The third volume, by Hans Binnendijk, assesses the state of U.S. alliances and partnerships, exploring three alternative strategies for managing potential adversaries. It concludes that collaborative engagement, though not without constraints, is the most feasible for the United States. It also recommends a trilateral defense strategy that would feature closer ties among the United States, Europe, and Asia. The fourth, a Perspective by Ambassador Charles P. Ries, probes the deficiencies in the U.S. national security policymaking and policy implementation systems, offering eight recommendations for reorga- iii iv Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity nizing and improving decisionmaking in an era of rising challenges and shrinking policymaker bandwidth. The fifth, an assessment of the international economy by Howard J. Shatz, concludes that the United States is likely to maintain the world’s largest economy for many years, and that it will benefit from continuing its leadership role in the international institutions it helped to build over the past seven decades. The report argues that the United States should improve these global structures and integrate rising powers, demonstrating to other countries that a U.S.-led economic system remains desirable. We draw on the research and insights of these five associated studies in this concluding volume, as well as contributions from other RAND colleagues across a range of disciplines. This study should be of interest to U.S. policymakers and law- makers, analysts, the media, nongovernmental organizations, and others concerned with the role of the United States and other nations in advancing global security and economic growth. This project results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. Special appreciation is due to the Hauser Foundation for its gen- erous gifts in support of the project, and to Rita Hauser for her encour- agement and support of the effort. Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethink Series Available at www.rand.org/research/projects/strategic-rethink Choices for America in a Turbulent World James Dobbins, Richard H. Solomon, Michael S. Chase, Ryan Henry, F. Stephen Larrabee, Robert J. Lempert, Andrew Liepman, Jeffrey Martini, David Ochmanek, and Howard J. Shatz RR-1114-RC, 2015 America’s Security Deficit: Addressing the Imbalance Between Strategy and Resources in a Turbulent World David Ochmanek, Andrew R. Hoehn, James T. Quinlivan, Seth G. Jones, and Edward L. Warner RR-1223-RC, 2015 Friends, Foes, and Future Directions: U.S. Partnerships in a Turbulent World Hans Binnendijk RR-1210-RC, 2016 Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World Charles P. Ries PE-192-RC, 2016 U.S. International Economic Strategy in a Turbulent World Howard J. Shatz RR-1521-RC, 2016 Foreword This is the sixth and final volume of the Strategic Rethink series, during which RAND has pulled together some of its best minds to take a fresh look at America’s role in the world—its interests, ambitions, obstacles, and options for a turbulent new era. The project was born several years ago, at a moment when both the international security situation and the U.S. domestic political mood seemed to be deteriorating sharply. We had war fatigue at home, tumult in the Middle East, increasing tensions with Russia and China, a Salafi-jihadist movement taking root in new lands, and a rising tide of partisanship threatening to paralyze the U.S. ability to conduct a sustained, coherent foreign policy. I asked Ambassadors Richard Solo- mon and James Dobbins to lead a wide-ranging effort to reexamine America’s challenges and its capabilities. What level of international engagement is the American public willing to support, and to what end? How much does America want or need to lead a world where many problems seem to be beyond its ability to control? Is there a “grand strategy” for diplomacy and defense that would match U.S. interests with the resources required to succeed at that strategy? And if not a “grand” strategy, are there other strategic concepts that could align and orient U.S. foreign and domestic policy and generate support from the American public? The five previous volumes in this series explored key issues that will face the next president in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia; national defense; alliances and partnerships; national security deci- sionmaking; and international economic policy. This final overview vii viii Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity report analyzes how the United States moved from the triumph at the end of the Cold War to the stalemate of today and suggests a range of changes the United States can make to better adapt to this new era of turbulence and uncertainty. The report offers three plausible strategic concepts that the United States might pursue, and evaluates the under- lying assumptions, costs, risks, and constraints. It also offers thoughts on how to choose among alternatives. We do not advocate any one of these strategic concepts. In fact, we assume that policymakers will mix and match as they strive to cope with fast-evolving circumstances and advance changing U.S. inter- ests. As this report points out, changes in course even during a single administration tend to be the rule rather than the exception. I would offer five considerations for readers as they use this volume to explore, challenge, and develop their own views of America’s role in the world. First, I am deeply concerned that the United States has contracted a disease we might call “truth decay.” In politics and beyond, we see the danger that Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan once warned of, that people feel entitled not only to their opinions, but to their own set of facts to support those opinions. One goal of the Strategic Rethink series has been to present a rigorous body of facts and analysis on which to have a productive discussion about strategic choices for America. Second, American voters don’t always get what we pay for, but we almost never get what we don’t pay for. Each strategic concept in this report comes with an approximate price tag for defense and security spending. Failure to allocate proper resources to a chosen course of action is a recipe for disappointment, debt, or disaster. Third, much has been written about the limitations on U.S. power, but the authors caution that inaction on the global stage can sometimes be just as costly as action. A careful calibration of ends and means is always a necessity. Fourth, the analysis highlights the many strengths the United States brings to bear on the global stage, more than any other nation, and none more important than its many friends and allies. No other competitor has the advantage of such a global network of friends and Foreword ix allies; to surrender or squander this advantage would be a catastrophic strategic failure. Finally, this report analyzes many external threats to the United States.