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Ad Spending Forecast Paints Grim View of 2020

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Ad Spending Forecast Paints Grim View of 2020 www.spotsndots.com Subscriptions: $350 per year. This publication cannot be distributed beyond the office of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or [email protected] The Daily News of TV Sales Friday, May 29, 2020 Copyright 2020. AD SPENDING FORECAST PAINTS GRIM VIEW OF 2020 THE SILVER LINING? IT’S NOT AS BAD AS 2009 ADVERTISER NEWS Brands reeling from COVID-19 will cut $50 billion from their With COVID-19 having hit automakers hard, Tesla has ad budgets in 2020, leading to a global spending decline of lowered prices on most of its models. Its lowest-priced 8.1% — but political ad outlays will keep the industry from Model 3 now starts at $37,990. The move was a surprise falling as far as it did during the 2009 recession. to automotive analysts who had expected demand might That’s according to a forecast from WARC, a research firm exceed supply for the unique brand… It was a good quarter that services marketers, media companies and agencies. for the “dollar stores.” Dollar General led the results with a WARC’s projection, which is based on data from 96 global 21.7% same-store gain, fuelled by customers stocking up markets, shows declines across the board, with traditional during the pandemic. Dollar Tree’s overall comp store gain media taking the biggest hit, Ad Age reports. amounted to 7%. The Dollar Tree banner itself Spending on cinema ads will fall 31.6%, followed was actually down 0.9%, but a big 15.5% gain in by out-of-home (21.7%); magazines (21.5%); same-store sales at Family Dollar stores picked newspapers (19.5%); radio (16.2%); and TV up the corporate numbers… With stores closed (13.8%). and little demand for apparel, Abercrombie Online spending growth will “almost grind to a & Fitch reported net sales drops of 30% at its halt” with just a 0.6% gain, the forecast says. Spending on namesake banner and 36% at Hollister. It did not break out social media, online video and online search will still grow, same-store comparisons… Similarly, Burlington Stores but at far lower rates than previously projected, with online had a bad quarter, losing $333.7 million vs. $77.8 million a classified ads set to drop by 10.3%. year ago. All its stores were closed by March 22, with the WARC projects total global advertising spend of $563 billion first having reopened by May 11, and more than 400 will in 2020. The prediction of an 8.1% decline is a significant be open this weekend. The better news is that in the stores downgrade from the 7.1% growth it forecast in February. that have reopened this month, sales are running ahead of The good news, if there is any, is that political spending last year. Some other chains have reported similar results, in the U.S. will cushion the fall, keeping the global drop-off indicating there may be a good deal of pent-up demand… less steep than what occurred in 2009, when the ad market Lumber Liquidators comp store sales had been up 4% contracted by 12.7%, according to the forecast. through March 21, but then the pandemic hit and dragged WARC cites a political spending forecast from Magna, the down numbers to negative 0.9% by the end of the fiscal Interpublic Group-owned firm that provides investment and quarter. The chain did make a $12 million profit, and that media intelligence, which projects healthy spending levels on compares with a net loss of $3.4 million in the year-ago the U.S. presidential election. “While we reduced our political quarter. With markets reopening, current quarter comps ad forecast as fundraising will be affected by the economic have improved to about 70% of normal… Furniture Today crisis, spend is still expected to grow significantly on the says in-store mattress sales remain under “severe pressure,” previous presidential cycle, with almost $5 billion (up 26% but online sellers appear to have had a good boost over the vs. 2016) more invested, including an extra $1 billion going Memorial Day holiday. In what it calls “a continuing story into digital,” says Vincent Letang, Magna’s executive VP for of two different channels,” Purple Innovation, Casper global market intelligence. Sleep and Tempur Sealy were seen to be big winners James McDonald, WARC’s head of data content and over the holiday, and FT comments, “We expect the road the author of the forecast, foreshadows three phases to to recovery for offline mattress retailers to be a long one.” the downturn: “Firstly, an immediate demand-side induced paralysis for sectors such as travel, leisure and retail, (Continued on Page 3) combined with supply-side constraints for [consumer packaged- goods brands]. Second, the recessionary tailwind will exert extreme pressure on the financial services sector as well as the consumer, whose disposable income is now heavily diminished.” He continued: “Finally, as the world takes tentative steps towards a recovery, there will be an added emphasis on healthcare and wellbeing credentials among brands not normally associated with the field, aside [from] higher spending within the pharmaceutical sector to leverage the shifting consumer mindset.” CBS MOST-WATCHED FOR 12TH STRAIGHT YEAR WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS TOP 40M IN 10 WEEKS CBS finished the traditional television season, which The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic ended last week, as the most-watched broadcaster for the continues to wreak havoc on millions of Americans. New 12th consecutive year, Nielsen says. weekly employment data from the U.S. Department of CBS has won 17 of the last 18 years, the lone exception Labor finds that 2.1 million people filed jobless claims for the coming when Fox topped the chart at the height of week ending May 23. American Idol. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment CBS has won for so long the distinction has lost much of rate was 14.5% for the week ending May 16, a decrease of the meaning it had when the streak began, The Associated 2.6 percentage points from the previous week’s revised rate. Press says. Broadcast networks no longer dominate the The Federal Reserve, in a Wednesday report, said the television landscape as they used to and, with streaming ongoing unemployment rate — the highest since the Great and cable networks a big part of the mix, Depression in the 1930s — threatens TV doesn’t effectively turn out the lights consumer spending, tourism and in the summer the way it once did. manufacturing. Nielsen’s rankings also don’t reflect My kids have started While the unemployed are receiving an streamed viewership of given programs saying “leave meeting” additional $600 weekly from the federal outside of a seven-day window in which when they want me to government as part of the $2 trillion they were first telecast. stop talking. CARES Act, those monies are set to NBC’s Sunday Night Football ranks expire in July. as the most-watched regular program “For the vast majority of people, those of the year, back in the fall when sports Conan O’Brien benefits don’t even replace half of [their] were on television. NCIS was the most prior income,” Heidi Shierholz with the popular scripted series for the first time Economic Policy Institute told The since the 2012-13 season, with Young Sheldon as the top- Washington Post. rated comedy. CBS averaged 7.58 million viewers in primetime, down THIS AND THAT 15% from last season, Nielsen said. Second-place NBC Some 75% of Americans would rather watch an ad than averaged 6.5 million viewers, down 10% from last year and give out their email address, although 95% would prefer to fourth-place ABC had 5.4 million, down 4%. give their email address than their telephone number, per Fox was up 17% to 6.3 million, primarily because the BuzzStream and Fractl. The study also reveals that the network had a package of Thursday night NFL games in top three digital marketing activities Americans take part in the fall that it didn’t have the season before. Fox’s ratings are sharing social content in return for entering a contest, were also juiced by showing the Super Bowl in February. commenting on Facebook content in return for being entered to win a prize, and giving an email address to receive COVID-19 THEMED ADS SURGING, NIELSEN SAYS quiz or questionnaire results... HBO Max, WarnerMedia’s In the thick of massive TV advertising changes at the end high-profile SVOD platform, generated about 87,000 app of March through mid-April, Nielsen says the number of downloads on portable devices, according to new data from COVID-19-related television ad creatives airing on national Sensor Tower. While the tally doesn’t include migration TV and local TV stations doubled over the three-week of HBO and HBO Now subs to the new platform, it still is period, MediaPost reports. significantly below the 300,000 app downloads upstartQuibi For the week April 13-19, COVID-19 messages tied to generated on its first day on April 7. major brands represented 19% or 491,839 ad units of the total amount of U.S. ad units on national and local TV, which AUTO SALES RECOVERING, BUT STILL HURTING amounted to 2.62 million during that period, Nielsen says. New vehicle sales in the U.S. are slowly recovering this month That’s compared to 10% for the week of March 30-April 5, from their historic collapse in April due to the coronavirus when it comprised 251,414 units out of a total 2.52 million pandemic.
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