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Method for Estimating Patronage of Demand Responsive Transportation Systems

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Method for Estimating Patronage of Demand Responsive Transportation Systems REPORT NO. DUT-TST-77-77 TSC Urban & Regional Research Series Method For Estimating Patronage Of Demand Responsive Transportation Systems Final Report December 1977 OST Office of R & D Policy UMTA Office of Service and Methods Demonstrations UMTA Office of Planning Methods and Support k U S DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION li Office of the Secretary Urban Mass Transportation Administration Transportation Systems Center * 5 'AT™ O' . NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Govern- ment assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof NOTICE The United States Government does not endorse pro- ducts or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are con- sidered essential to the object of this report. , r~ ' — Technical Report Documentation Page i iWrf'ft r 1 . Report No. 2. Government A c ie s s [j 'T’ r Recipient s Catolog Nc. DOT-TST-77-77 1 traiw**^ W / 4. Title and Subtitle 5. ffeport Date 1 J fj ^ ^ feecfember 1977 •"METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PATRONAGE OF DEMAND 6. Performing Organization Coce RESPONSIVE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS / I 1 LIBRARY 8. (Performing Organization Report No. A 7. Author's' . M. Flusberg?,<-* W.M. Pecknold — S R. Lerman,* # , rftfr -T S C -UMTA- 7 7 - 5 2 R.E. Nestle,* N.H.M. Wilson** * 9. Performing Organizotion Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) OS545, UM727 , UM717/R8712 Cambridge Systematics , Inc.- Cambridge MA 02142 11 Contract or Grant No DOT-TSC-977 Multisystems, Inc.** Cambridge MA 02136 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Final Report U.S. Department of Transportation April 1975 - July 1977 I Office of the Secretary Office of the Assistant Secretary for Systems 14 Sponsoring Agency Code Development and Technology Office of R&D Policy “"Urban Mass Transportation Administration Office of Transportation Management and Demonstrations Office of Transportation Planning Washington DC 20590 16. Abstract This study has developed a method for estimating patronage of demand responsive transportation (DRT) systems. This procedure requires as inputs a description of the intended service area, current work trip patterns, characteristics of the served population, and the major design choices, such as. the vehicle fleet size, changes in fleet size over the day, types of vehicles being used (buses or taxis) and the fare level. Using these data, the model predicts patronage and service levels for each user-specified interval during the day. The model system has been developed as a software package which includes a set of disaggregate demand models, a set of analytic supply models, and an equilibration procedure. In addition, a simple sketch planning procedure has been developed which can be used 'or quick, preliminary analysis of DRT sites. The models have been estimated on data from existing systems in Rochester NY and Hadconfield NJ and validated on systems currently operating in Davenport IA and LaHabra CA. Comparisons of forecasts and actual ridership levels have also been carried out for six other U.S. DRT systems. U.S. Department of Transportation -Under Contract to: Transportation Systems Center Kendall Square Cambridge MA 02142 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Demand Responsive Transportation Systems DOCUMENT IS AVAILABLE TO THE U.S. PUBLIC Paratransit Planning THROUGH THE NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SE R V ICE SPR I NGF I E LD. Travel Demand , Models VIRGINIA 22161 Transit Supply and Demand Models Transit Planning 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21* No. of P ages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 290 (8-72) Form DOT F 1700.7 Reproduction of completed page authorized PREFACE Public transportation officials have had a tendency to concentrate their planning and design efforts on rail and and fixed route bus sys- tems. However, the combination of shifting residential densities and the desire for public transportation to serve a wider spectrum of travel needs has focused increasing attention on demand responsive transporta- tion (DRT) systems. Demand responsive transportation refers not to one type of system, but encompasses a wide range of possible service options that have one common element: they respond to the demands of passengers both in terms of where and when they wish to travel. A critical problem local planners face when they attempt to design DRT systems is the difficulty of forecasting future patronage; many of the major decisions on capital outlays such as the number of vehicles purchased depend on expected ridership levels. In response to this need for planning methods, this study, funded under contract DOT-TSC-977, entitled, "A Method for Estimating Patronage of Demand Responsive Trans- portation Systems," has developed a computer-based procedure which can be used by local planners to predict DRT patronage. Cambridge Systematics wishes to thank the individuals who contri- buted to the scope and direction of this study. Howard Simkowitz and Donald Ward of the U.S. Department of Transportation, Transportation Systems Center, deserve special mention for their critical review and helpful comments throughout the course of this study. i i i The authors personally thank the other members of the staff at Cambridge Systematics who contributed to this project: Moshe E. Ben- Akiva, Charles F. Manski, John R. Sawyer, Carol A. Walb , Christine M. Winquist and Jeanne S. Roberts. IV CONTENTS SECTION Page 1: INTRODUCTION TO DEMAND RESPONSIVE TRANSPORTATION 1 1.1 Objective and Outline of Report 1 1.2 Background 4 1.3 Types of Demand Responsive Transportation Systems 7 1.4 The Need for DRT Planning Models 13 1.5 Modelling Framework 15 2: OVERVIEW OF THE DETAILED MODEL SYSTEM 16 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 Equilibrium in DRT Service 19 2.3 Structure of the Model 23 2.4 The Demand Methodology: Disaggregate Choice Models 27 2.5 The Work Trip Demand Model 31 2.6 The Non-Work Trip Demand Model 35 2.7 The Service Model 43 2.8 Equilibrium 46 3: USING THE DETAILED MODEL SYSTEM 49 3.1 Introduction to Model Data Needs 49 3.2 Data Needs: Run and Period Control Parameters 52 3.3 Data Needs: Service Area Description 55 3.4 Data Needs: Supply Model Inputs 58 3.5 Data Needs: Demand Model Inputs 64 3.6 Example Problem 67 3.7 Special Issues in Complex Service Areas 80 4: VALIDATION 89 4.1 Choice of Validation Sites 89 4.2 Davenport, Iowa: Site Description 90 4.3 Davenport, Iowa: Operating Data 96 4.4 La Habra, California: Site Description 98 4.5 La Habra, California: Operating Data 101 4.6 Modelling the Fixed Route Bus Mode 103 4.7 Validation Results: Daily DRT Ridership and Service 105 4.8 Validation by Period 112 4.9 Fixed Route Bus Ridership Forecasts 117 4.10 Summary of Validation Results 118 v 6 CONTENTS (continued) SECTION Page 5: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT 121 OF A SIMPLIFIED SKETCH PLANNING MODEL 5.1 Objectives 121 5.2 Input to the Runs 121 5.3 Results of the Eighteen Runs 129 5.4 Utilization of Model Results 139 5.5 Application of Suggested Procedure 147 5.6 Selection of a Starting Point 155 5.7 Evaluation of the Results 157 5.8 Conclusions 162 6: CONCLUSIONS 165 6.1 Summary of Study 165 6.2 Use of the Results of this Study 167 6.3 Future Research 170 APPENDIX A - DEMAND MODEL: TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION A-l A.l Introduction A-l A. 2 Disaggregate Choice Model Theory A-l A. 3 A Notational Convention A- A. 4 The Calibration Data Set A-ll A. 5 The Work Trip Demand Model.... A-15 A. 6 Structure of the Non-Work Trip Demand Model A-23 A. 7 Non-Work Choice Models A-27 A. 8 Distribution of Departure and Dwell Times A-34 APPENDIX B - SUPPLY MODEL: TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION B-l B. l Initial Attempts at Model Development B-l B.2 Queuing Theory B-l B.3 A "Pseudo" Semi-Markov Model B-4 B.4 The Descriptive Supply Model Methodology B-8 B.5 Formulation of Model Bounds B-10 B.6 Model Form B-ll B.7 Model Results B-13 B.8 Shared-Ride Taxi Version of the Model B-13 B.9 Individual Ride Time and Wait Time Models B-16 B.10 The Impact of Different Dispatching Systems B-19 B.ll Final Model Adjustments B-24 vi CONTENTS (continued) SECTION Page APPENDIX C - PROGRAM USER'S MANUAL C-l APPENDIX D - DESCRIPTION OF DELIVERY TAPE FORMAT D-l APPENDIX E - REPORT OF INVENTIONS E-l BIBLIOGRAPHY p.t v i i ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page 2.1 Equilibrium Formulation 21 2.2 General Flow of the Model System 25 2.3 An Individual's Travel Pattern Within a 39 Single Analysis Period 3.1 Irondequoit and its Relationship to the 68 Rochester Metropolitan Area 3.2 Irondequoit Many to Many DRT Zones 69 3.3 Irondequoit Peak Hour Bus Routes 71 3.4 Irondequoit Off-Peak Bus Routes 72 3.5 Suggested Irondequoit Zone System 74 3.6 Bus Wait Time Model as a Function of Headways 84 4.1 Davenport and Quad Cities Area 91 4.2 Davenport Zone System 93 4.3 Time of Day Distribution 95 4.4 Location of LaHabra in Los Angeles 99 Metropolitan Area 4.5 LaHabra Zone System 100 5.1 Zone System, 6 Square Mile Area 124 5.2 Zone System, 9 Square Mile Area 124 5.3 Ridership vs. Population (Vehicle Density, 132 Vehicle Fleet Size, Fare Constant) 5.4 Ridership vs. Fare 134 5.5 Ridership vs. Vehicle Density (Population, Area 137 Held Constant) A.l State Transition Diagram A-24 vi i i 8 TABLES Table Pa g e 1.1 Time and Space Responsiveness of Transportation Systems 11 1.2 Characteristics of Selected DRT Systems 12 2.1 Variables in the Work Trip Model 33 2.2 Variables in the Non-Work Trip Model 41 3.1 Assumption About Household Size Distribution
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