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Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk
ORE Open Research Exeter TITLE Working together to face humanity's greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk AUTHORS Currie, AM; Ó hÉigeartaigh, S JOURNAL Futures DEPOSITED IN ORE 06 February 2019 This version available at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/35764 COPYRIGHT AND REUSE Open Research Exeter makes this work available in accordance with publisher policies. A NOTE ON VERSIONS The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk. Adrian Currie & Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh Penultimate Version, forthcoming in Futures Acknowledgements We would like to thank the authors of the papers in the special issue, as well as the referees who provided such constructive and useful feedback. We are grateful to the team at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who organized the first Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk where many of the papers collected here were originally presented, and whose multi-disciplinary expertise was invaluable for making this special issue a reality. We’d like to thank Emma Bates, Simon Beard and Haydn Belfield for feedback on drafts. Ted Fuller, Futures’ Editor-in-Chief also provided invaluable guidance throughout. The Conference, and a number of the publications in this issue, were made possible through the support of a grant from the Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF); the conference was also supported by a supplementary grant from the Future of Life Institute. -
Global Catastrophic Risks 2016
Global Challenges Foundation Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 © Global Challenges Foundation/Global Priorities Project 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to raise awareness of the The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their Global Catastrophic Risks. Primarily focused on climate change, other en- statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations. vironmental degradation and politically motivated violence as well as how these threats are linked to poverty and rapid population growth. Against this Authors: background, the Foundation also works to both identify and stimulate the Owen Cotton-Barratt*† development of good proposals for a management model – a global gover- Sebastian Farquhar* nance – able to decrease – and at best eliminate – these risks. John Halstead* Stefan Schubert* THE GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT helps decision-makers effectively prior- Andrew Snyder-Beattie† itise ways to do good. We achieve his both by advising decision-makers on programme evaluation methodology and by encouraging specific policies. We * = The Global Priorities Project are a collaboration between the Centre for Effective Altruism and the Future † = The Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford of Humanity Institute, part of the University of Oxford. Graphic design: Accomplice/Elinor Hägg Global Challenges Foundation in association with 4 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 5 Contents Definition: Global Foreword 8 Introduction 10 Catastrophic Risk Executive summary 12 1. An introduction to global catastrophic risks 20 – risk of events or 2. What are the most important global catastrophic risks? 28 Catastrophic climate change 30 processes that would Nuclear war 36 Natural pandemics 42 Exogenous risks 46 lead to the deaths of Emerging risks 52 Other risks and unknown risks 64 Our assessment of the risks 66 approximately a tenth of 3. -
Artificial General Intelligence and the Future of the Human Race Bryon Pavlacka
ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE FUTURE OF THE HUMAN RACE Bryon Pavlacka Artificial Intelligence is all around us. It manages be used against humanity. Of course, such threats are not your investments, makes the subway run on time, imaginary future possibilities. Narrow AI is already used diagnoses medical conditions, searches the internet, solves by the militaries of first world countries for war purposes. enormous systems of equations, and beats human players Consider drones such as the Northrop Grumman X-47B, at chess and Jeopardy. However, this “narrow AI,” designed an Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle that is being tested for solving specific, narrow problems, is something by the US Navy (DefenseTech.org, 2011). That’s right, there distinctly different from Artificial General Intelligence, or is no pilot. Of course, the drone can be given orders, but “AGI”, true thinking machines with human-like general the exact way in which those orders are carried out will intelligence (Wang, Goertzel, & Franklin, 2008, p. v). While be left up to the drone’s Narrow AI system. Whether such AGI is not rigidly defined, it is often envisioned as being systems will ever be extended toward general intelligence self-aware and capable of complex thought, and has is currently unknown. However, the US military has shown BSJ been a staple of science fiction, appearing prominently in interest in producing and controlling generally intelligent popular films such as 2001: A Space Odyssey, Terminator, killing machines as well, as made evident by a paper called and I, Robot. In each of these films, the machines go “Governing Lethal Behavior” by Ronald C. -
Artificial Intelligence: a Roadmap for California
Artificial Intelligence: A Roadmap for California Report #245, November 2018 Milton Marks Commission on California State Government Organization and Economy Little Hoover Commission Dedicated to Promoting Economy and Efficiency Pedro Nava Chairman in California State Government Sean Varner Vice Chairman/ Subcommitee Member The Little Hoover Commission, formally known as the Milton Marks “Little Hoover” David Beier Commission on California State Government Organization and Economy, is an Subcommitee Chair independent state oversight agency created in 1962. By statute, the Commission Iveta Brigis is bipartisan and composed of nine public members, two senators and two Subcommitee Member assemblymembers. Cynthia Buiza In creating the Commission, the Legislature declared its purpose: Anthony Cannella Senator [T]o secure assistance for the Governor and itself in promoting Chad Mayes economy, efficiency and improved services in the transaction of Assemblymember the public business in the various departments, agencies and Don Perata instrumentalities of the executive branch of the state government, Bill Quirk and in making the operation of all state departments, agencies and Assemblymember instrumentalities, and all expenditures of public funds, more directly Richard Roth responsive to the wishes of the people as expressed by their elected Senator representatives. Cathy Schwamberger The Commission fulfills this charge by holding public hearings, consulting with experts Janna Sidley and listening to stakeholders. During the course of its studies, the Commission may Former Commissioners Who create subcommittees and conduct site visits. Served During The Study Joshua LaFarga The findings and recommendations of the Commission are submitted to the Governor and the Legislature for their consideration. Recommendations often take the form of Helen Iris Torres legislation, which the Commission supports through the legislative process. -
NATO Legal Gazette Issue 41
Issue 41 October 2020 Legal Gazette Legal Aspects of Innovation 1 PAGE 2 NATO LEGAL GAZETTE, Issue 41 Contents Introduction, by Sherrod Lewis Bumgardner……………………………...….……......... 4 Preface, by Geoffrey S. Corn and Gary Corn..……………………………………... 6 Innovation for peaceful purposes only: Where there is the will, there is ITER, by Antoaneta Boeva …………………………………………………………………………… 14 Partnership, Not Pivot: NATO’s Legal Answer to the China Question, by Lauren Brown ………………………………………………………………………………………... 27 Responsibility, Liability and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, by Theodora Vassilika Ogden ………………………………………………………………. 46 Autonomous Weapon Systems: A Pragmatic Approach to an Emerging Capability, by Major Gregg F. Curley..………………………………………………… 61 U.S. Export Controls: The Future of Disruptive Technologies, by Christopher Timura, Judith Alison Lee, R.L. Pratt and Scott Toussaint …………………………... 96 The Relevance and Benefits of Integrated Compliance Strategy (ICS) for NATO Defence Forces, by Martijn Antzoulatos-Borgstein …………………..…...…. 125 Legal Operations: The Use of Law as an Instrument of Power in the Context of Hybrid Threats and Strategic Competition, by Rodrigo Vázquez Benítez……….. 138 The Road to Hell is Paved with Bad Contractors: Vendor Vetting is a Better Path, by Brett Sander ……………………………………………………………………… 145 Publisher: Monte DeBoer, ACT Legal Advisor Editor-in-Chief: Sherrod Lewis Bumgardner, ACT SEE Legal Advisor Editors: Mette Prassé Hartov, HQ SACT Deputy Legal Advisor Galateia Gialitaki, ACT SEE Legal Assistant Copy Editors: Robert ‘Butch’Bracknell, HQ SACT Staff Legal Advisor Col Xavier Labarriere, HQ SACT Staff Legal Advisor Miles S. Porter, HQ SACT Legal Extern Malia Kenza Chenaoui, ACT SEE Legal Extern Copy Proofreader: Caitlin Fendon, HQ SACT Legal Intern Lola Chanfreau, ACT SEE Legal Extern 2 NATO LEGAL GAZETTE, Issue 41 PAGE 3 Disclaimer: The NATO Legal Gazette is produced and published by Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT). -
Download Global Catastrophic Risks 2020
Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION (GCF) ANNUAL REPORT: GCF & THOUGHT LEADERS SHARING WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2020 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. ANNUAL REPORT TEAM Ulrika Westin, editor-in-chief Waldemar Ingdahl, researcher Victoria Wariaro, coordinator Weber Shandwick, creative director and graphic design. CONTRIBUTORS Kennette Benedict Senior Advisor, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Angela Kane Senior Fellow, Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation; visiting Professor, Sciences Po Paris; former High Representative for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations Joana Castro Pereira Postdoctoral Researcher at Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University of Lisbon Philip Osano Research Fellow, Natural Resources and Ecosystems, Stockholm Environment Institute David Heymann Head and Senior Fellow, Centre on Global Health Security, Chatham House, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Romana Kofler, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Defense Officer and Program Executive of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office Gerhard Drolshagen, University of Oldenburg and the European Space Agency Stephen Sparks Professor, School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol Ariel Conn Founder and -
Beneficial AI 2017
Beneficial AI 2017 Participants & Attendees 1 Anthony Aguirre is a Professor of Physics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He has worked on a wide variety of topics in theoretical cosmology and fundamental physics, including inflation, black holes, quantum theory, and information theory. He also has strong interest in science outreach, and has appeared in numerous science documentaries. He is a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, the Foundational Questions Institute, and Metaculus (http://www.metaculus.com/). Sam Altman is president of Y Combinator and was the cofounder of Loopt, a location-based social networking app. He also co-founded OpenAI with Elon Musk. Sam has invested in over 1,000 companies. Dario Amodei is the co-author of the recent paper Concrete Problems in AI Safety, which outlines a pragmatic and empirical approach to making AI systems safe. Dario is currently a research scientist at OpenAI, and prior to that worked at Google and Baidu. Dario also helped to lead the project that developed Deep Speech 2, which was named one of 10 “Breakthrough Technologies of 2016” by MIT Technology Review. Dario holds a PhD in physics from Princeton University, where he was awarded the Hertz Foundation doctoral thesis prize. Amara Angelica is Research Director for Ray Kurzweil, responsible for books, charts, and special projects. Amara’s background is in aerospace engineering, in electronic warfare, electronic intelligence, human factors, and computer systems analysis areas. A co-founder and initial Academic Model/Curriculum Lead for Singularity University, she was formerly on the board of directors of the National Space Society, is a member of the Space Development Steering Committee, and is a professional member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). -
Autonomous Weapon Systems and Cyber Operations
The Weaponization of Increasingly Autonomous Technologies: Autonomous Weapon Systems and Cyber Operations 2 No. 7 UNIDIR RESOURCES Acknowledgements Support from UNIDIR’s core funders provides the foundation for all of the Institute’s activities. In addition, dedicated funding for the activities leading to this paper was received from the Governments of Canada, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. UNIDIR would like to acknowledge the thoughtful contributions of the participants in a November 2015 meeting on cyber, AI and increasingly autonomous technologies convened by UNIDIR: David Atkinson, John Borrie, Aude Fleurant, Adam Henschke, Sean Legassick, Patrick Lin, Ryder McKeown, Nils Melzer, Richard Moyes, Jean-Marc Rickli, Heather Roff, Eneken Tikk-Ringas, and Kerstin Vignard. Particular thanks are extended to Patrick Lin for his substantive input, meeting moderation, and synthesis. UNIDIR would also like to acknowledge the contributions of those experts and interviewees who have requested to remain unnamed. This report was drafted by Kerstin Vignard. About the Project “The Weaponization of Increasingly Autonomous Technologies” Given that governments have a responsibility to create or affirm sound policies about which uses of autonomy in weapon systems are legitimate—and that advances in relevant technologies are also creating pressure to do so—UNIDIR’s work in this area is focused on what is important for States to consider when establishing policy relating to the weaponization of increasingly autonomous technologies. See http://bit.ly/UNIDIR_Autonomy for Observation Papers, audio files from public events, and other materials. This is the seventh in a series of UNIDIR papers on the weaponization of increasingly autonomous technologies. UNIDIR has purposefully chosen to use the word “technologies” in order to encompass the broadest relevant categorization. -
November 2018 – April 2019 1. Overview
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk Six Month Report: November 2018 – April 2019 We have just prepared a Six Month Report for our Management Board. This is a public version of that Report. We send short monthly updates in our newsletter – subscribe here. Contents 1. Overview .............................................................................................................................. 1 2. Policy Engagement: ......................................................................................................... 2 3. Academic and Industry Engagement: ........................................................................ 4 4. Public Engagement:......................................................................................................... 5 5. Recruitment and research team ................................................................................... 6 6. Expert Workshops and Public Events: ....................................................................... 7 7. Upcoming activities ......................................................................................................... 8 8. Publications ....................................................................................................................... 9 1. Overview The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is an interdisciplinary research centre within the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of risks that could lead to civilizational collapse or human extinction. We study existential risk, develop -
Global Catastrophic Risks 2017 INTRODUCTION
Global Catastrophic Risks 2017 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL CHALLENGES ANNUAL REPORT: GCF & THOUGHT LEADERS SHARING WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2017 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. ANNUAL REPORT TEAM Carin Ism, project leader Elinor Hägg, creative director Julien Leyre, editor in chief Kristina Thyrsson, graphic designer Ben Rhee, lead researcher Erik Johansson, graphic designer Waldemar Ingdahl, researcher Jesper Wallerborg, illustrator Elizabeth Ng, copywriter Dan Hoopert, illustrator CONTRIBUTORS Nobuyasu Abe Maria Ivanova Janos Pasztor Japanese Ambassador and Commissioner, Associate Professor of Global Governance Senior Fellow and Executive Director, C2G2 Japan Atomic Energy Commission; former UN and Director, Center for Governance and Initiative on Geoengineering, Carnegie Council Under-Secretary General for Disarmament Sustainability, University of Massachusetts Affairs Boston; Global Challenges Foundation Anders Sandberg Ambassador Senior Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Anthony Aguirre Institute Co-founder, Future of Life Institute Angela Kane Senior Fellow, Vienna Centre for Disarmament Tim Spahr Mats Andersson and Non-Proliferation; visiting Professor, CEO of NEO Sciences, LLC, former Director Vice chairman, Global Challenges Foundation Sciences Po Paris; former High Representative of the Minor Planetary Center, Harvard- for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations Smithsonian -
Principled Artificial Intelligence: Mapping Consensus in Ethical and Rights- Based Approaches to Principles for AI
Principled Artificial Intelligence: Mapping Consensus in Ethical and Rights- based Approaches to Principles for AI The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Fjeld, Jessica, Nele Achten, Hannah Hilligoss, Adam Nagy, and Madhulika Srikumar. "Principled Artificial Intelligence: Mapping Consensus in Ethical and Rights-based Approaches to Principles for AI." Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, 2020. Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:42160420 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA PRINCIPLED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Mapping Consensus in Ethical and Rights-based Approaches to Principles for AI Jessica Fjeld, Nele Achten, Hannah Hilligoss, Adam Christopher Nagy, Madhulika Srikumar Table of Contents 2 Acknowledgements 1. 3 Introduction 4 Executive Summary 7 How to Use these Materials 8 Data Visualization 2. 11 Definitions and Methodology 11 Definition of Artificial Intelligence 12 Definition of Relevant Documents 14 Document Search Methodology 15 Principle and Theme Selection Methodology 18 Timeline Visualization 3. 20 Themes among AI Principles 3.1 21 Privacy 3.2 28 Accountability 3.3 37 Safety and Security 3.4 41 Transparency and Explainability 3.5 47 Fairness and Non-discrimination 3.6 53 Human Control of Technology 3.7 56 Professional Responsibility 3.8 60 Promotion of Human Values 4. 64 International Human Rights 5. 66 Conclusion 6. 68 Bibliography PRINCIPLED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cyber.harvard.edu Acknowledgements This report, Principled Artificial Intelligence: Mapping Consensus in Ethical and 1. -
Ideas for Modernizing the Rules-Based International Order
CHATHAM HOUSE IDEAS FOR EXPERT PERSPECTIVES MODERNIZING THE RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER CHATHAM HOUSE EXPERT PERSPECTIVES 2019 2019 An annual survey of risks and June 2019 opportunities in international affairs IDEAS FOR MODERNIZING THE RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER CHATHAM HOUSE EXPERT PERSPECTIVES 2019 Chatham House Expert Perspectives All rights reserved. No part of this Design and typesetting: publication may be reproduced or Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk An annual survey of risks and transmitted in any form or by any means, opportunities in international affairs Printed and bound in Great Britain electronic or mechanical including by Pureprint Published: June 2019 photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the The Royal Institute Commissioning editor: Adam Ward prior written permission of the copyright of International Affairs Editor: Jake Statham holder. Please direct all enquiries Chatham House to the publishers. 10 St James’s Square Editorial support: Jo Maher, Mike Tsang London SW1Y 4LE Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Digital: Nick Capeling, +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 International Affairs, does not express Lyndsey Jefferson, Jason Naselli opinions of its own. The opinions expressed www.chathamhouse.org Copyright © The Royal Institute in this publication are the responsibility Charity Registration No. 208223 of International Affairs, 2019 of the author(s). ISBN: 978 1 78413 339 9 Preface 6. Preserve the 11. Tackle the 16. Raise the Bar [page 1] Effectiveness of ‘Splinternet’ Thomas Raines Antibiotics with Marjorie Buchser [page 56] a Global Treaty and Joyce Hakmeh Introduction David Heymann [page 38] and Emma Ross 17. Address 1. Adapt or Die [page 20] Russian Rule Adam Ward 12.