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Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence Articles Research Priorities for Robust and Benefcial Artifcial Intelligence Stuart Russell, Daniel Dewey, Max Tegmark ■ Success in the quest for artifcial rtificial intelligence (AI) research has explored a variety intelligence has the potential to bring of problems and approaches since its inception, but for unprecedented benefts to humanity, Athe last 20 years or so has been focused on the prob- and it is therefore worthwhile to inves- lems surrounding the construction of intelligent agents — tigate how to maximize these benefts systems that perceive and act in some environment. In this while avoiding potential pitfalls. This article gives numerous examples (which context, the criterion for intelligence is related to statistical should by no means be construed as an and economic notions of rationality — colloquially, the abil- exhaustive list) of such worthwhile ity to make good decisions, plans, or inferences. The adop- research aimed at ensuring that AI tion of probabilistic representations and statistical learning remains robust and benefcial. methods has led to a large degree of integration and cross- fertilization between AI, machine learning, statistics, control theory, neuroscience, and other fields. The establishment of shared theoretical frameworks, combined with the availabil- ity of data and processing power, has yielded remarkable suc- cesses in various component tasks such as speech recogni- tion, image classification, autonomous vehicles, machine translation, legged locomotion, and question-answering sys- tems. Copyright © 2015, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. All rights reserved. ISSN 0738-4602 WINTER 2015 105 Articles As capabilities in these areas and others cross the economists and computer scientists agree that there threshold from laboratory research to economically is valuable research to be done on how to maximize valuable technologies, a virtuous cycle takes hold the economic benefits of AI while mitigating adverse whereby even small improvements in performance effects, which could include increased inequality and have significant economic value, prompting greater unemployment (Mokyr 2014; Brynjolfsson and investments in research. There is now a broad con- McAfee 2014; Frey and Osborne 2013; Glaeser 2014; sensus that AI research is progressing steadily, and Shanahan 2015; Nilsson 1984; Manyika et al. 2013). that its impact on society is likely to increase. The Such considerations motivate a range of research potential benefits are huge, since everything that civ- directions, spanning areas from economics to psy- ilization has to offer is a product of human intelli- chology. Examples include the following. gence; we cannot predict what we might achieve Labor Market Forecasting: when this intelligence is magnified by the tools AI When and in what order should we expect various may provide, but the eradication of disease and jobs to become automated (Frey and Osborne 2013)? poverty is not unfathomable. Because of the great How will this affect the wages of less skilled workers, potential of AI, it is valuable to investigate how to the creative professions, and various kinds of infor- reap its benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls. mation workers? Some have have argued that AI is Progress in AI research makes it timely to focus likely to greatly increase the overall wealth of research not only on making AI more capable, but humanity as a whole (Brynjolfsson and McAfee also on maximizing the societal benefit of AI. Such 2014). However, increased automation may push considerations motivated the AAAI 2008–09 Presi- income distribution further towards a power law dential Panel on Long-Term AI Futures (Horvitz and (Brynjolfsson, McAfee, and Spence 2014), and the Selman 2009) and other projects and community resulting disparity may fall disproportionately along efforts on AI’s future impacts. These constitute a sig- lines of race, class, and gender; research anticipating nificant expansion of the field of AI itself, which up the economic and societal impact of such disparity to now has focused largely on techniques that are could be useful. neutral with respect to purpose. The present docu- Other Market Disruptions ment can be viewed as a natural continuation of Significant parts of the economy, including finance, these efforts, focusing on identifying research direc- insurance, actuarial, and many consumer markets, tions that can help maximize the societal benefit of could be susceptible to disruption through the use of AI. This research is by necessity interdisciplinary, AI techniques to learn, model, and predict human because it involves both society and AI. It ranges and market behaviors. These markets might be iden- from economics, law, and philosophy to computer tified by a combination of high complexity and high security, formal methods, and, of course, various rewards for navigating that complexity (Manyika et branches of AI itself. The focus is on delivering AI al. 2013). that is beneficial to society and robust in the sense Policy for Managing Adverse Effects that the benefits are guaranteed: our AI systems must What policies could help increasingly automated do what we want them to do. societies flourish? For example, Brynjolfsson and This article was drafted with input from the atten- McAfee (2014) explore various policies for incen- dees of the 2015 conference The Future of AI: Oppor- tivizing development of labor-intensive sectors and tunities and Challenges (see Acknowledgements), for using AI-generated wealth to support underem- and was the basis for an open letter that has collect- ployed populations. What are the pros and cons of ed nearly 7000 signatures in support of the research interventions such as educational reform, appren- priorities outlined here. ticeship programs, labor-demanding infrastructure projects, and changes to minimum wage law, tax Short-Term Research Priorities structure, and the social safety net (Glaeser 2014)? History provides many examples of subpopulations Short-term research priorities including optimizing not needing to work for economic security, ranging AI’s economic impact, research in law and ethics, and from aristocrats in antiquity to many present-day cit- computer science research for robust AI. In this sec- izens of Qatar. What societal structures and other fac- tion, each of these priorities will, in turn, be dis- tors determine whether such populations flourish? cussed. Unemployment is not the same as leisure, and there are deep links between unemployment and unhappi- Optimizing AI’s Economic Impact ness, self-doubt, and isolation (Hetschko, Knabe, and The successes of industrial applications of AI, from Schöb 2014; Clark and Oswald 1994); understanding manufacturing to information services, demonstrate what policies and norms can break these links could a growing impact on the economy, although there is significantly improve the median quality of life. disagreement about the exact nature of this impact Empirical and theoretical research on topics such as and on how to distinguish between the effects of AI the basic income proposal could clarify our options and those of other information technologies. Many (Van Parijs 1992; Widerquist et al. 2013). 106 AI MAGAZINE Articles Economic Measures or wars (Asaro 2008)? Would such weapons become It is possible that economic measures such as real the tool of choice for oppressors or terrorists? Final- GDP per capita do not accurately capture the benefits ly, how can transparency and public discourse best and detriments of heavily AI-and-automation-based be encouraged on these issues? economies, making these metrics unsuitable for pol- Privacy icy purposes (Mokyr 2014). Research on improved How should the ability of AI systems to interpret the metrics could be useful for decision making. data obtained from surveillance cameras, phone Law and Ethics Research lines, emails, and so on, interact with the right to pri- vacy? How will privacy risks interact with cybersecu- The development of systems that embody significant rity and cyberwarfare (Singer and Friedman 2014)? amounts of intelligence and autonomy leads to Our ability to take full advantage of the synergy important legal and ethical questions whose answers between AI and big data will depend in part on our affect both producers and consumers of AI technolo- ability to manage and preserve privacy (Manyika et gy. These questions span law, public policy, profes- al. 2011; Agrawal and Srikant 2000). sional ethics, and philosophical ethics, and will Professional Ethics require expertise from computer scientists, legal What role should computer scientists play in the law experts, political scientists, and ethicists. For exam- and ethics of AI development and use? Past and cur- ple: rent projects to explore these questions include the Liability and Law for Autonomous Vehicles AAAI 2008–09 Presidential Panel on Long-Term AI If self-driving cars cut the roughly 40,000 annual U.S. Futures (Horvitz and Selman 2009), the EPSRC Prin- traffic fatalities in half, the car makers might get not ciples of Robotics (Boden et al. 2011), and recently 20,000 thank-you notes, but 20,000 lawsuits. In what announced programs such as Stanford’s One-Hun- legal framework can the safety benefits of dred Year Study of AI and the AAAI Committee on AI autonomous vehicles such as drone aircraft and self- Impact and Ethical Issues. driving cars best be realized (Vladeck 2014)? Should Policy Questions legal questions about AI be handled by existing (soft-
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