CHATHAM HOUSE IDEAS FOR EXPERT PERSPECTIVES MODERNIZING THE RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER CHATHAM HOUSE EXPERT PERSPECTIVES 2019 2019 An annual survey of risks and June 2019 opportunities in international affairs IDEAS FOR MODERNIZING THE RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER CHATHAM HOUSE EXPERT PERSPECTIVES 2019 Chatham House Expert Perspectives All rights reserved. No part of this Design and typesetting: publication may be reproduced or Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk An annual survey of risks and transmitted in any form or by any means, opportunities in international affairs Printed and bound in Great Britain electronic or mechanical including by Pureprint Published: June 2019 photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the The Royal Institute Commissioning editor: Adam Ward prior written permission of the copyright of International Affairs Editor: Jake Statham holder. Please direct all enquiries Chatham House to the publishers. 10 St James’s Square Editorial support: Jo Maher, Mike Tsang London SW1Y 4LE Chatham House, the Royal Institute of Digital: Nick Capeling, +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 International Affairs, does not express Lyndsey Jefferson, Jason Naselli opinions of its own. The opinions expressed www.chathamhouse.org Copyright © The Royal Institute in this publication are the responsibility Charity Registration No. 208223 of International Affairs, 2019 of the author(s). ISBN: 978 1 78413 339 9 Preface 6. Preserve the 11. Tackle the 16. Raise the Bar [page 1] Effectiveness of ‘Splinternet’ Thomas Raines Antibiotics with Marjorie Buchser [page 56] a Global Treaty and Joyce Hakmeh Introduction David Heymann [page 38] and Emma Ross 17. Address 1. Adapt or Die [page 20] Russian Rule­ Adam Ward 12. Increase breaking [page 2] Climate Ambition James Nixey 7. Renew the by Making Policy [page 59] Bretton Woods More Inclusive Global System Antony Froggatt perspectives Stephen Pickford and Catherine 18. Embrace 2. To Improve [page 24] Hampton Soft Power Global Govern­ [page 42] (but Recognize ance, Empower its Limits) Society 8. Rethink Champa Patel Robin Niblett the WTO’s Role 13. Target [page 63] [page 6] in a Digital, Agricultural Divided World Supply Chains Matthew Oxenford to Tackle 19. Rethink State­ 3. Strengthen [page 27] Deforestation building in the the International Duncan Brack Middle East and Criminal Court [page 46] North Africa Elizabeth 9. Drive Global Renad Mansour Wilmshurst Action on Money­ and Tim Eaton [page 9] laundering Regional [page 67] Nigel Gould-Davies perspectives [page 31] 14. Engage 4. Create a Global China to Uphold Code of Conduct Multilateralism – for Outer Space 10. Democratize but not at Patricia Lewis Trade Policy­ any Cost [page 13] making to Better Harriet Moynihan Protect Human [page 49] Rights 5. Recalibrate Jennifer Zerk the Respons ibility [page 34] 15. Don’t to Protect Overstretch Calum Inverarity Hans Kundnani and James Kearney [page 53] [page 16] PREFACE what are the limits to international Some doubt whether any such A final dilemma we have kept in order, and how can global rules and order exists, or consider it to consist mind concerns clarifying who these institutions adapt to today’s proliferat- of multiple overlapping orders. There solutions are for. Like defining the ing challenges to peaceful cooperation is also sometimes the assertion that rules-based international order, this between states? These are the princi- it is an invention of liberal democra- is more complicated than it might pal questions explored, from a vari- cies, designed to impose a system for seem, and goes to the centre of ety of angles, in this year’s edition of the benefit of Western diplomatic, difficult questions about who should Chatham House Expert Perspectives, military and economic agendas. be setting and enforcing global rules our annual survey of risks and oppor- The contributors to this volume and whose interests they serve. The tunities in international affairs. were given the latitude to interpret the common thread, if there is one, is that We launched this series in 2018 rules-based system broadly, allowing while one can certainly disagree about with a collection of essays identifying the essays here to tackle a wide range which rules to follow or who should trends and inflection points – for better of subjects and to accommodate be in charge, a world entirely with- or worse – across a range of thematic a variety of perspectives on the inter- out rules is not desirable. areas from geopolitics to climate national order and its modernization. change. In this 2019 edition, our The ideas advocated thus encompass researchers expand on the ‘opportu- everything from treaty negotiation nity’ side of that ledger by proposing, and the development of other legal or at least examining the potential to instruments to the less formalized develop, solutions to some of the most corralling of voluntary compliance pressing issues for global governance. with agreed goals. The authors have Framing this assessment is the sought to keep the debate pragmatic concept of the ‘rules-based interna- and to avoid wishful thinking – instead tional order’. We have chosen this proposing approaches that at a min- theme in part because of its currency imum can credibly be advocated by in the contemporary policy dis- policymakers, while identifying where course, but also to stimulate debate the chief obstacles to progress on around highly contested views on a given issue lie. Rules, of course, are the effectiveness and desirability made to be broken, so a number of the of different models of international essays explore what can be achieved governance. The definition of the when the rules don’t work, or when rules-based order is not agreed. particular actors ignore them. Preface 1 01. introduction ADAPT OR DIE by Adam Ward Historically, efforts to build rules­based international orders have emerged out of conflict, only for each system to falter when a new crisis emerges. At issue today, with the post­1945 multilateral system under strain, is how to modernize the making and application of rules to break that cycle. 2 Chatham House Expert Perspectives 2019 the most vexing, complicated national ambitions; and those who pattern of behaviour currently sur- and elusive question in international sense in it a presumption of universal rounding them presents some danger- relations is how to achieve an order, values and shared interests that jars ous echoes from the past. based on rules, that enjoys legitimacy, with their own particular historical Throughout history, most at- rewards investments in cooperation, experience and political preferences. tempts to form international orders reconciles clashing interests and deters And in a world in which each country have been conceived in a coercive way. conflict. It is not a problem over which occupies its own place on the spectrum From classical antiquity to the 20th a magic wand can be waved. But in our of attraction to, tolerance of and resist- century, the dominant form of order own time, immense and patient efforts ance to multilateralism, it is inevitable has been that imposed or attempted by have been made towards that general that the present system should be successive territorial empires, or by pre- goal, however imperfect the result. a patchy and incomplete one. dominant powers who made the rules The concept of the ‘rules-based by fiat and were deferred to by their international order’ refers today in its The policy neighbours and satellites. Significant most general sense to arrangements attempts at more collaborative con- put into place to allow for cooperative challenges ceptions of order, aimed at coexistence efforts in addressing geopolitical, eco- and minimizing risk through rules and nomic and other global challenges, and may be new, accepted conventions, have been far to arbitrate disputes. It is embodied in rarer. And the key point about them a variety of multilateral institutions, but the pattern is that they have been attempted only starting with the United Nations and after competition has spilled over in an running through various functional ar- of behaviour uncontrolled, exhausting and ruinous chitectures such as the Bretton Woods currently conflict that has called for mechanisms system, the corpus of international law and understandings to prevent a re- and other regimes and treaties, down surrounding currence of disaster. That, in any case, to various regional instances where has been the European experience, and sovereignty is pooled or where powers them presents subsequently the result of the engulfing have been delegated consensually by crises that radiated out globally from states on a particular issue. some dangerous Europe in the 20th century. Some aspects of the rules-based echoes from Early efforts at order-building order are heavily informed by distinct focused on mutual recognition values, such as those contained in the past. and the management of what were the Universal Declaration of Human felt to be inevitable rivalries. The Rights. But, more often than not, they If that patchiness seems increas- Westphalian Peace of 1648 emerged simply prescribe a set of basic princi- ingly apparent today, then this reflects from a 30-year period of religious war ples for how the business of interna- the proliferation of problems on a truly in Europe. It emphasized the sanctity tional political and economic relations global scale that multilateral initiatives of sovereignty and non-interference in is to be transacted. The parameters of have as yet failed to keep up with. the internal affairs of other states as legitimate and illegitimate behaviour This is partly because of the sheer pace a precondition for order, but relied on are specified. Compliance is incen- of change and the deep complexity a jostling balance-of-power approach tivized, and some scope to sanction of problems, and partly because any to the preservation of a basic stability. transgressors is provided for. significant programme of coordinated A tolerance of conflicts to cor- For some, the rules-based inter- action requires a focus and consensus rect imbalances was implicit to the national order is a politically highly that today is in shrinking supply.