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Study of the Carrying Capacity of the Environment Case Study: the Simanindo Area, Samosir Regency, North Sumatra

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Study of the Carrying Capacity of the Environment Case Study: the Simanindo Area, Samosir Regency, North Sumatra Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal e-ISSN 2655-853X Vol. 4 No. 1: 72-86, March 2021 DOI: 10.37637/ab.v4i1.688 Study of The Carrying Capacity of The Environment Case Study: The Simanindo Area, Samosir Regency, North Sumatra Diki Surya Irawan, Deffi Ayu Puspito Sari, Rr. Alifianatifa Anandya Putriahalya Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science, University of Bakrie Corresponding author email: [email protected] Abstract. Lake Toba area has been designated a National Strategic Area, which is a priority spatial planning area. The Simanindo Area is a sub-district in Samosir Regency which is an island in the middle of Lake Toba, North Sumatra, Indonesia. Lake Toba's current condition has been polluted by organic contamination and high free chlorine. In addition, the existence of fish farming activities or floating net cages that contribute to the contamination of phosphorus by 0.78 mg/l and free chlorine by 0.84 mg/l into Lake Toba which resulted in the need for studies on the carrying capacity and environmental capacity. Land carrying capacity can be calculated by comparing the availability of land with land requirements. While the carrying capacity of water can be calculated by comparing the availability of water with water requirements or using the Thornwaite Mather Water Balance method. Land Capacity can be calculated by the Land Endurance Unit. While the Capacity of Waters can be calculated by STORET analysis or calculation of domestic waste pollution load. The existence of a massive development plan for Simanindo area and rapid population growth is projected to cause the Land Support Capacity of the Simanindo Priority Zone to be conditionally safe in 2040. Water Carrying Capacity experienced a deficit in the atmosphere in July after being calculated with the Thornwaite Mather Water Balance. In addition, the Capacity of Water Bodies is also in the Status of Severe Pollution according to the STORET Method. Keywords: carrying capacity, free chlorine, Lake Toba, phosphorus, Simanindo INTRODUCTION increasing population and the increasing needs Simanindo is a sub-district in Samosir of the shelter (Sari et al., 2018). The use of land Regency which is an island in the middle of Lake and water that does not consider the ecosystem Toba, North Sumatra, Indonesia. The capital of structure will tend to cause an imbalance in the this sub-district is in the village of Ambarita. environment. Simanindo sub-district has a strategic plan According to research by the (Kementrian focused on development in the tourism sector, Kelautan dan Perikanan, 2018) there is a fairly with an object Simanindo tourism, which has a high load of phosphorus entering the body of panoramic view of beauty and the abundance of Lake Toba, namely 941 tons/year from floating objects ancient relics of antiquity (Sihombing et net cage fish culture and 25,334 tons/year al., 2014). The plan to develop the Lake Toba originating from the river that empties into the area as world-class tourism was conveyed by the lake. As well as the phosphorus concentration of President of the Republic of Indonesia. The Lake 0,78 mg / l and free chlorine 0,84 mg / l, where Toba area has been designated as a National it showed that the concentration of phosphorus Strategic Area (Ditjen Bangda, 2020). That and free chlorine in the waters of Lake Toba policy will increase the number of inhabitants exceed the quality standards (Kartamihardja et which can lead to the conversion of land from al., 2015). Based on these data, the water quality empty or agricultural land to a tourism area. This of Lake Toba has decreased, so it is necessary to situation has resulted in increased population study the carrying capacity of the environment in pressure on land, which might be experiencing the Lake Toba area. environmental pressures well beyond its current The country's urban areas are experiencing carrying capacity in the country’s urban area environmental pressures well beyond their (Meilasari-Sugiana et al., 2018). People tend to current carrying capacity (Meilasari-Sugiana et use the remaining space along with the al., 2018). Environmental Supporting Capacity is 72 Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal e-ISSN 2655-853X Vol. 4 No. 1: 72-86, March 2021 DOI: 10.37637/ab.v4i1.688 the ability of the environment to support the lives literature studies and related institutions, some of humans, other living things, and the balance of the data used in this study are land cover data, between the two. Meanwhile, the purpose of the total population, the data urban facilities, interaction is to achieve a balance between rainfall data, and test results of water quality of availability and need. Environmental Capacity is Lake Toba in the form of BOD, fecal coli, the ability of the environment to absorb phosphorus, and chlorine-free. This study uses substances, energy, and/or other components evaluation of the carrying capacity of the that enter or are incorporated into it. Meanwhile, environment aims to determine the status of the the purpose of the interaction is the ability of carrying capacity of the land and waters of the nature and the environment to accommodate or Simanindo area, whether or not it has been neutralize waste or excess from an activity exceeded. The stages of determining the without reducing the ability of nature (KLHK, carrying capacity of the environment include 2019). The study of the carrying capacity of the determining the status of a surplus or deficit in environmental in Simanindo area become more the Simanindo area of Lake Toba resulting from important because there are no any study an evaluation of the carrying capacity of the regarding it, therefore this study is expected to environment. The research method used is be an instrument that has an optimal function in descriptive quantitative, namely determining the the context of the management and utilization of status of the carrying capacity based on the natural resources and the environment especially calculation results. in the context of environment control 1. Population Projections instruments process. In calculating the carrying capacity of the environment, one of the most influencing factors METHODS is the population projection. The population This research is structured based on projections of the Simanindo area are divided problem identification that leads to research on into 2 types, namely natural projections and more focused problem topics. This research was progressive projections. Natural projection is a conducted in Simanindo Subdistrict and natural population growth projection that has Laboratory of Environmental Service, Samosir not been influenced by external factors that will Regency, North Sumatra. From December 2019 affect population development in the area. to February 2020. Identification of the problems Natural population projection can be carried found becomes a framework for thinking to find out by observing the growth rate of the solutions. The main stage in this research is to population in the past, so the statistical method identify the characteristics of the area which is is the best method to estimate the population in then evaluated for carrying capacity and the future. This study use 10 year data determining the status of carrying capacity. population in the past to determine the growth rate. Several methods can be used to analyze the In the survey and observation phase, it development of natural population, such as: involves collecting primary and secondary data. 1. Least Square Method This study uses primary data obtained from This method is carried out if the amount direct sampling to the field from several points of data is odd, using the following of the lake scattered in the Simanindo area then equation: checked in the Samosir Environmental Agency laboratory, for secondary data obtained from 73 Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal e-ISSN 2655-853X Vol. 4 No. 1: 72-86, March 2021 DOI: 10.37637/ab.v4i1.688 y = a+b x ● yn = Total population (t) in the final data y a= i ● x = The period n between the projection year and the yu b= ii data year-end 2 u i …….. (1) ● r = Population growth rate Informations: ● n = Amount of data ● yi = Total population in the 4. Linear Regression Method year i This method is done using the following ● ui = Multiplier variable equation: ● x = he period of year y = a+bx 2 between the projection year and the y x - x (xy) a= 2 2 current year N x - x ● ui = 0 N (xy)- x y b= 2. Arithmetic Method 2 2 N x - x …….. (4) This method is used if periodic data shows the number of additions that are 5. Exponential Method relatively the same each year. The This method is done using the following formula for this method is: equation: y = yn +g.x bx (t) …….. (2) y = a e n Informations: 1 ln a= ln y -b x ● yn = Total population N N x ln y - x ln y in the final data b= 2 2 ● x = The period N x - x …….. (5) between the projection year and the data year-end 6. Logarithmic Method ● g = verage annual 푦 − 푦 This method is done using the following population growth = 푒푛푑 푓푖푟푠푡 푇표푡푎푙 퐷푎푡푎 equation: 3. Geometric Method y = a+b lnx 1 This method is used if the population a= y -b ln x N data shows a rapid increase from year to N y ln x - y ln x b= year. The formula for this method is: 22 N ln x - ln x x …….. (6) y = y (1+r ) (t) n 1 To determine the most appropriate method yn n r = -1 to be used in planning, it is necessary to calculate yo …….. (3) the correction factor, standard deviation, and the state of the city's future developments.
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