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CENTRAL ASIA HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT Bringing down barriers: Regional cooperation for human development and human security Bringing down barriers: Regional cooperation for human development and human security The report was prepared by a team of experts under the guidance of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and the CIS, in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, and with financial assistance from the UN Human Security Trust Fund and the UN Foundation. Copyright © 2005 by the UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. Sales number: E.05.III.B.23 ISBN: 92-95042-34-4 Cover and layout design: Calder s. r. o., Bratislava, Slovakia Layout and print: Renesans, s. r. o., Bratislava, Slovakia Printed in Bratislava, Slovak Republic II Central Asia Human Development Report Team for the preparation of the Central Asia Human Development Report Project Leader and Lead Author Johannes Linn Core Team Jacek Cukrowski, Project Coordinator and Co-Lead Author Gulden Turkoz-Cosslett, Project Manager Sanjar Tursaliev, Project Administrator Authors Martha Blaxall, Aleh Cherp, Kathleen Collins, Bahodir Ganiev, Wojciech Hubner, Kevin Jones, Simon Kenny, Zeynep Kudatgobilik, Lars Moller, Richard Pomfret, Anara Tabyshalieva, Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh Editor Gretchen Sidhu Lead Authors of Country Background Studies Meruert Makhmutova (Kazakhstan), Roman Mogilevsky (Kyrgyzstan), Muzaffar Olimov (Tajikistan), Bakhtiyor Ergashev (Uzbekistan), Najia Badykova (Turkmenistan) World Bank survey Anika Ayrapetyants Andrew J. Felton Kathleen Kuehnast The analysis and policy recommendations of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the UN Development Programme, its Executive Board or UN Member States. The report is an independent publication commissioned by UNDP. It is the result of a collaborative effort by a team of eminent consultants, advisors and authors coordinated by the UNDP Core Team. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the maps presented in the report do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. III Central Asia Human Development Report Foreword Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, economy much larger and better off in 10 years. It Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—is home to almost makes the case, however, that opening borders or 60 million people. Located at the center of the vast reducing trade costs is not enough. Much will also Eurasian continental space, the countries of this depend on the business climate and the quality region are today the focus of intense international of financial services in each country. International attention because of their geopolitical and economic experience confirms that reforms also require importance, their natural and human resources, measures to combat corruption, improve the their transit potential for transcontinental trade and civil service, and enhance the transparency and transport, and their unsettled political situation. accountability of governments. Given its landlocked geography, Central Asia is Since the break up of the Soviet Union, many heavily dependent on its immediate neighbours books, reports and publications have appeared and the international community for access to the about the historical and contemporary challenges rest of the world, for its security, and for support for facing Central Asia. Among them was UNDP’s 1999 its economic and social development. Human Development Report Central Asia 2010: The people of Central Asia and their governments Prospects for Human Development.1 This new Human have been remarkably successful in meeting the Development Report builds on the earlier edition by very difficult problems that they faced following taking a comprehensive and integrated approach. It the break up of the Soviet Union. However, much weaves together many disparate strands of analysis, remains to be done to reduce cross-border barriers, policy advice and technical support that have so to facilitate better use of regional resources, and to far been provided in many separate areas (trade ensure that the people of the region benefit from and transport, water, energy, environment, health, improved links among their countries, with their education, etc.), at many different levels (regional, neighbours and with the rest of the world. national, sub-national, community) and by many distinct entities (multilateral institutions; bilateral The purpose of this Central Asia Human Develop- official donors and partners; regional, national and ment Report is to support the countries in Central local authorities; and international and local civil Asia, their neighbors and their international partners society organizations). in working towards greater regional cooperation and integration as a means for achieving sustained I am extremely pleased that this publication human development and human security for the represents a collaborative effort with two key people of Central Asia. institutions working in Central Asia, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, which were The report draws together evidence on how people directly involved in its preparation. in Central Asia are affected by limited regional cooperation and integration, on the benefits from Developing a consensus and implementing cooperation, and on what is already being done follow-up action for regional cooperation and to promote cooperation and the lessons learned. integration cannot happen overnight. In view of Where possible, the impacts have been quantified, the many obstacles of history, current politics and in terms of economic losses and gains, and the institutional weaknesses, and bearing in mind the number of people involved. slow progress with similar efforts elsewhere in the world, one must realistically expect that serious The report argues that increased cooperation progress with regional cooperation and integration among the Central Asian republics will produce will take years, and even decades. However, the large gains by reducing trade costs, increasing hope is that the evidence presented in this report, remittances from migrant workers, and improv- its recommendations and the follow-up actions ing water and energy use. As we have seen from it envisages will help foster increased regional other parts of the world, regional cooperation will cooperation and eventual integration in Central especially help the poor in the region, who will on Asia, and so contribute to opening up the region balance gain more from cooperation. By the same as a more peaceful, prosperous and stable core of token, the cost of non-cooperation will affect them an increasingly integrated continental Eurasian most. economic space. Demonstrating that human and economic costs of non-cooperation in dealing with threats of health epidemics, natural disasters and environmental Kemal Derviş destruction would be large, the report also maps Administrator, UNDP how closer cooperation could make Central Asia’s 1 UNDP, Central Asia 2010: Prospects for Human Development. Regional Bureau for Europe and the CIS. September 1999. This report compiles the contributions of participants at a conference on Central Asian Human Development organized by UNDP in 1999. This conference did not deal explicitly with the issues of regional cooperation and integration. V Bringing down barriers: Regional cooperation for human development and human security Preface Few parts of the world are as interdependent as the five This report reflects UNDP’s effort to enhance cooperation in Central Asian landlocked countries. The five former Soviet Central Asia. Commissioned by UNDP, it offers policy makers republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan in the region an independent analysis of the benefits of and Uzbekistan—are more distant from the nearest seaports regional integration. It also provides an examination of how than any other countries in the world. Especially for the regional cooperation can support human development smaller states, land transit routes represent irreplaceable and human security in Central Asia. economic lifelines. The Central Asian republics are also The report quantifies and measures (to the extent bound together by their water and energy endowments, possible) the economic and social implications of regional with upstream countries holding some of the world’s largest cooperation and integration for the people of the region. freshwater reserves, and downstream countries containing It considers obstacles and constraints, even where the important fossil fuel resources. While the latter depend upon benefits of cooperation and the costs of non-cooperation their upstream neighbours for irrigating water-intensive may be abundantly clear. cotton production, the upstream countries depend equally on their downstream neighbours for their energy needs. Rooted in national analytical and institutional expertise, the report was drafted through an extensive process of The Fergana Valley perhaps best illustrates the need for consultation designed to promote Central Asian ownership. cooperation. Those who have had the privilege of travelling Expert individuals and institutions throughout Central Asia in this fertile and populated region will notice how often were involved in developing the final outline, preparing enclaves of one country jut