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Russia's Ambitions community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 8 Issue #4 OEWATCH April 2018 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT RUSSIA’S AMBITIONS RUSSIA’S AMBITIONS AFRICA 3 Russia Looks to Expand Its Influence in Africa 28 Nigeria’s Environmental Devastation Drives Conflict 49 China Commits to Building Global Satellite Communication 4 Russian Influence in the Levant Basin 29 Boko Haram Repeats Chibok Kidnapping, Now in Dapchi Network by 2023 5 Escalation in Syria? 30 Who are the Anglophone Secessionists in Cameroon? 50 Xi Jinping Promotes Civil-Military Integration, Technological 6 Iran: Supreme Leader Advisor Lauds Russian Strategic Ties 31 Protests Against Foreign Militaries in Niger Innovation 7 The Growth of Russia-Thailand Relations: What’s Next? 32 South Sudan’s President Scapegoats US for Failed Peace 51 Reopened Chinese-Built Railways Link Coastal Angola with the 9 A Chinese Perspective on Pakistan-Russian Cooperation in Talks Interior of Africa Afghanistan 33 South Sudan: Buying Peace Does Not Work 52 Beyond Bitcoin: Could China Embrace Blockchain for Defense 10 Covert Supply Lines 34 Local Debate on AMISOM: Should It Stay or Should It Go? and Security Applications? 11 A Militarized Silicon Valley in Russia? 35 Is China Practicing “Debt-Trap Diplomacy” in Africa? 54 China Seeks Extradition of Detained Uyghurs in Malaysia 13 Russia Forms Two New Divisions in the Southern Military 55 Vietnam’s Military Modernization District LATIN AMERICA 36 Brazil Has a Border Problem CAUCASUS, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA 37 Security Issues in Ecuador 56 Concern in Kazakhstan over Returning Foreign Fighters from 14 “Holy Defense:” Hezbollah’s New First-Person Shooter 38 Impact of Odebrecht Scandal on Peruvian Economy Syria Video Game 39 Elections in El Salvador 57 Uzbekistan Reopens Border Checkpoints with Tajikistan 15 War in Syria Turned Hezbollah into a Powerful Army 39 Elections in Cuba 58 Azerbaijan and Georgia Increase Bilateral Security Cooperation 16 The Tiger Forces in Damascus 40 Elections in Colombia 59 Pakistan’s Training Mission to Saudi Arabia 18 Syria: Who are the Loyalist Forces on the Eastern Banks of 41 Cristina Fernández’s Legal Jeopardy the Euphrates? 42 Colombian Forces Fight the ELN RUSSIA, UKRAINE 19 A Turkish View of the Wagner Group in Syria 42 Cracks in Bolivarian Military Morale 60 A Russian Approach to Interagency Cooperation 20 Turkey’s Balancing Act with Armed Rebels in Northern 43 Stabilizing Venezuela: Strategic Objective for Bolivarians 61 New Russian Officer Code of Conduct Syria 44 Continuing Violence in Mexico Fuels Armored Car Business 62 Russian Operational Reserve Will Enhance Active Component 21 Turkey and Power Play in Syria 45 Bombs Detonated on Ferry and Tourist Vessel in Mexico Readiness 22 Iran: Muslims Supported by US, UK are Illegitimate 64 The Drel Gliding Gravity Bomb with Independently Targetable 23 Iran Unveils New Anti-Armor Missile Submunitions 24 Police Chief Demands Death for Sufi Protestors ASIA-PACIFIC 46 China’s Focus on the Development of “High-Quality 66 The Kinzhal Air Launched Missile is a Modified Iskander SRBM 25 Iranian Environmentalists Arrested as Spies Weapons and Equipment” for the Navy 67 Stock up on Baking Soda Before the Acid Fog Descends 26 Iran: Israel’s Missile Defense Can Be Overwhelmed 47 Fact or Psychological Warfare? China’s Development of the 68 Russian Arctic Oil Vital to Russian Economy 27 13 Million Users of Domestic Messaging Apps in Iran World’s Strongest Individual Firepower System 69 The New Chinese Silk Road May Run Through the Arctic 27 Arresting Iranian Cyber Criminals 70 Interview with Russian Navy Commander Admiral Korolev approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and OEWATCH Assess the conditions of the Operational Foreign News & Perspectives Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO of the Operational Environment has conducted open source research Volume 8 | Issue 4 April | 2018 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Regional Analysts and Operational Environment Watch Expert Contributors provides translated selections and commentary from a diverse range Middle East, North Africa Ihsan Gunduz Michael Rubin of foreign media that our analysts Lucas Winter and expert contributors believe will Africa Robert Feldman give security professionals an added Jacob Zenn dimension to their critical thinking about the Operational Environment. Latin America Dodge Billingsley Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel The views expressed in each article are those of Zach Kelsay the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department Asia-Pacific Cindy Hurst of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Spencer Shanks information does not imply any commitment or intent Wilson VornDick on the part of the US Government to provide any Peter Wood additional information on any topic presented herein. Jacob Zenn The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute Caucasus, endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site Central and South Asia Matthew Stein or the information, products, or services contained Jacob Zenn therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing hyperlinks. Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles The Operational Environment Watch is archived Ray Finch and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ Les Grau tradoc-g2/fmso/. Kaitlyn Johnson Boris Vainer Tom Wilhelm Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Matthew Stein Design Editor Lucas Winter ON THE COVER: At the Luzhsky training ground during the main stage of the Zapad-2017 joint Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises. Source: President of Russia, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55644, CC 4.0. RUSSIA’S AMBITIONS Russia Looks to Expand Its Influence in Africa OE Watch Commentary: Russian influence in Africa is not a new phenomenon. Back in the days of the Cold War the “Through energy diplomacy, military might and soft Soviet Union had deep ties to the continent, providing arms, power, Russia will gradually increase its influence in training, and ideological support to African independence movements. However, with the dissolution of the Soviet Africa.” Union in 1991, Russia partly turned away from its African relationships. Now, as the accompanying article from the Institute for Security Studies relates, Russia is renewing old ties and forging new ones on the continent. According to the accompanying article, Russia’s involvement in the continent is often most welcome. From an African perspective, having yet another player in the areas of trade and politics helps to level the playing field. Additionally, Russia does not place the preconditions on trade such as respecting human rights that the West frequently insists upon. The result has been significant growth in trade between Russia and Africa, with one report stating it grew 185 percent between 2005 and 2015. Some of that trade can be ascribed to arms sales. Indeed, Russia has a long history of being a major supplier of weapons Vladimir Putin and the President of Guinea, Alpha Condé. to Africa. One need only look at the flag of Mozambique, Source: Kremlin/Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_and_Alpha_Condé_(2017-09-28)_1.jpg, CC By 4.0. emboldened with the image of an AK-47, to know how Source: Ronak Gopaldas, “Russia and Africa Meet Again,” Institute for important and longstanding Russian-supplied weapons are to Security Studies (South Africa), 13 March 2018. https://issafrica.org/iss- the continent. That history continues as Russian weapons are today/russia-and-africa-meet-again often the ones that appear in countries with arms embargoes. Through energy diplomacy, military might and soft power, Russia will Russian military influence is not limited to arms sales. Large gradually increase its influence in Africa. numbers of Russian soldiers serve as peacekeepers and trainers Indeed, as Stephanie Wolters of the Institute for Security Studies notes, in Africa. Additionally, numerous African countries attend ‘Russia’s position hasn’t really changed much in the past few years – i.e. Russian-hosted military exercises, either as participants or bargaining for African support in multilateral institutions in return for UN observers, with those countries that are major trading partners Security Council vetoes.’ with Russia more likely to attend. Nor should it be overlooked However, through strategic energy diplomacy, military might and that many of Russia’s investments in Africa are related to soft power, Russia will gradually increase its influence in Africa on an energy – oil, gas, and nuclear – through its state-owned firms incremental, rather than an exponential, level. that often have military ties. Russia’s push to level the playing field and create a more equitable power Russia’s Africa connections have not been without balance in international relations is likely to appeal to Africa’s leaders. controversy. The country has been accused of exacerbating conflicts through its ignoring of arms embargoes and undermining governance through lack of transparency in economic deals. Still, despite these problems and competition with the bigger Chinese player, Russia is gradually increasing its influence in Africa. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman) When a
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