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Chapter 7 Energy Systems Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change Chapter 7 Energy Systems A report accepted by Working Group III of the IPCC but not approved in detail. Note: This document is the copy‐edited version of the final draft Report, dated 17 December 2013, of the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change" that was accepted but not approved in detail by the 12th Session of Working Group III and the 39th Session of the IPCC on 12 April 2014 in Berlin, Germany. It consists of the full scientific, technical and socio‐economic assessment undertaken by Working Group III. The Report should be read in conjunction with the document entitled “Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report ‐ Changes to the underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment” to ensure consistency with the approved Summary for Policymakers (WGIII: 12th/Doc. 2a, Rev.2) and presented to the Panel at its 39th Session. This document lists the changes necessary to ensure consistency between the full Report and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved line‐by‐line by Working Group III and accepted by the Panel at the aforementioned Sessions. Before publication, the Report (including text, figures and tables) will undergo final quality check as well as any error correction as necessary, consistent with the IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors. Publication of the Report is foreseen in September/October 2014. Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Final Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WGIII AR5 Chapter: 7 Title: Energy Systems Author(s): CLAs: Thomas Bruckner, Igor Alexeyevich Bashmakov, Yacob Mulugetta LAs: Helena Chum, Angel De la Vega Navarro, James Edmonds, Andre Faaij, Bundit Fungtammasan, Amit Garg, Edgar Hertwich, Damon Honnery, David Infield, Mikiko Kainuma, Smail Khennas, Suduk Kim, Hassan Bashir Nimir, Keywan Riahi, Neil Strachan, Ryan Wiser, Xiliang Zhang CAs: Yumiko Asayama, Giovanni Baiocchi, Francesco Cherubini, Anna Czajkowska, Naim Darghouth, James J. Dooley, Thomas Gibon, Haruna Gujba, Ben Hoen, David de Jager, Jessica Jewell, Susanne Kadner, Son H. Kim, Peter Larsen, Axel Michaelowa, Andrew Mills, Kanako Morita, Karsten Neuhoff, Ariel Macaspac Hernandez, H‐Holger Rogner, Joseph Salvatore, Steffen Schlömer, Kristin Seyboth, Christoph von Stechow, Jigeesha Upadhyay REs: Kirit Parikh, Jim Skea CSA: Ariel Macaspac Hernandez 1 of 137 Final Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WGIII AR5 Chapter 7: Energy Systems Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 4 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 7 7.2 Energy production, conversion, transmission and distribution ................................................... 9 7.3 New developments in emission trends and drivers ................................................................... 13 7.4 Resources and resource availability ........................................................................................... 15 7.4.1 Fossil fuels ........................................................................................................................... 15 7.4.2 Renewable energy ............................................................................................................... 16 7.4.3 Nuclear energy .................................................................................................................... 17 7.5 Mitigation technology options, practices and behavioral aspects ............................................. 18 7.5.1 Fossil fuel extraction, conversion, and fuel switching ........................................................ 18 7.5.2 Energy efficiency in transmission and distribution ............................................................. 20 7.5.3 Renewable energy technologies ......................................................................................... 21 7.5.4 Nuclear energy .................................................................................................................... 23 7.5.5 Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) ......................................................................... 25 7.6 Infrastructure and systemic perspectives .................................................................................. 28 7.6.1 Electrical power systems ..................................................................................................... 28 7.6.1.1 System balancing─flexible generation and loads......................................................... 28 7.6.1.2 Capacity adequacy ....................................................................................................... 29 7.6.1.3 Transmission and distribution ..................................................................................... 30 7.6.2 Heating and cooling networks ............................................................................................. 30 7.6.3 Fuel supply systems ............................................................................................................. 31 7.6.4 CO2 transport ....................................................................................................................... 32 7.7 Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation ....................................................... 32 7.8 Costs and potentials ................................................................................................................... 34 7.8.1 Potential emission reduction from mitigation measures ................................................... 34 7.8.2 Cost assessment of mitigation measures ............................................................................ 37 7.8.3 Economic potentials of mitigation measures ...................................................................... 41 7.9 Co‐benefits, risks and spillovers ................................................................................................. 41 7.9.1 Socio‐economic effects ....................................................................................................... 45 7.9.2 Environmental and health effects ....................................................................................... 47 7.9.3 Technical risks ..................................................................................................................... 50 2 of 137 Final Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WGIII AR5 7.9.4 Public perception ................................................................................................................ 52 7.10 Barriers and opportunities ........................................................................................................ 53 7.10.1 Technical aspects .............................................................................................................. 53 7.10.2 Financial and investment barriers and opportunities ....................................................... 53 7.10.3 Cultural, institutional, and legal barriers and opportunities ............................................. 55 7.10.4 Human capital capacity building ....................................................................................... 55 7.10.5 Inertia in energy systems physical capital stock turnover ................................................ 56 7.11 Sectoral implication of transformation pathways and sustainable development ................... 57 7.11.1 Energy‐related greenhouse gas emissions ........................................................................ 57 7.11.2 Energy supply in low‐stabilization scenarios ..................................................................... 58 7.11.3 Role of the electricity sector in climate change mitigation .............................................. 63 7.11.4 Relationship between short‐term action and long‐term targets ...................................... 67 7.12 Sectoral policies ........................................................................................................................ 70 7.12.1 Economic instruments ....................................................................................................... 70 7.12.2 Regulatory approaches ..................................................................................................... 73 7.12.3 Information programmes .................................................................................................. 74 7.12.4 Government provision of public goods or services ........................................................... 74 7.12.5 Voluntary actions .............................................................................................................. 74 7.13 Gaps in knowledge and data .................................................................................................... 75 7.14 Frequently Asked Questions ..................................................................................................... 75 References .......................................................................................................................................
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