High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Bulletin #20 • January 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw

The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url

Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of December 2018 Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The Indicators 6 High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 7 ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi. Signals 11 [email protected]), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water ([email protected]). level in selected rivers 12

UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights

According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 15 districts were rated “Alert” and the remaining three did not report.

Crisis modification activities are continuing in all ZRBF 18 districts as a result of ZRBF HFMS trigger indicators and 2018 seasonal outlook, ZiMVAC and FEWSNET.

The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of December were: 1. Anthrax Reported Cases in Insiza, Lupane and Mberengwa, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Matobo districts. Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 2. Cattle price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Insiza, 8. Indigenous chicken price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Mutoko, Nyanga and Umzingwane. Umzingwane and Zvishavane 9. Maize price in Beitbridge and Umzingwane. 3. Reported cases of cholera in Mberengwa. 10. Pastures Availability in Beitbridge, Lupane, 4. Reported cases of common diarrhoea in Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Lupane, Matobo, Umzingwane Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, 11. Pearl Millet Price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Insiza, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane Zvishavane 5. Distances to water sources for households in 12. Rapoko Price in Beitbridge and Nyanga. Nkayi 13. Sorghum Price in Beitbridge, Nkayi and 6. Reported cases of FMD in Beitbridge Umguza districts. 7. Goat Price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Insiza,

Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019 Zvishavane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Umzingwane

Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Umguza No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Nyanga No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Nkayi No

Data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mwenezi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mutoko

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Mudzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Mbire

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Mberengwa

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Matobo

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Lupane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Kariba No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Insiza

Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Binga No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Bubi -

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Beitbridge

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Month Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-17 July 18 Feb-18 Sep-17 Nov 18 Nov Dec-18 Dec-17 Aug-18 Nov-17 Mar-18 May-18 Sept-18 June-18 April-18 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 16 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts 1: Overall Classification Table Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming

• Anthrax cases were reported in Insiza, Lupane and Matobo districts. By law, a farmer who suspects anthrax in an animal must notify a government veterinary officer immediately. Ideally, if anthrax is suspected the farm will be isolated and herds vaccinated, and the dead animal disposed of ap- propriately so that contamination of the soil and the spread of the disease to humans is minimised. The community members should be advised not eat meat from the affected cattle as the disease is transferrable to human beings, causing Inhalational and intestinal anthrax. The affected persons should immediately seek medical treatment to prevent possible fatalities.

• Reported cases of cholera in Mberengwa and common diarrhoea was rated “Emergency” in Beit- bridge, Chiredzi, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. The ZRBF consortium in the district should work closely with the Min- istry of Health to carryout public health and hygiene complain to reduce the spread of cholera and other diarrheal diseases.

• Distances to water sources for households in Nkayi was rated “Emergency” during the month of December. The ZRBF consortia in the district should work closely with DDF and the Rural District Council to rehabilitated boreholes to improve household access to water.

• Maize price in Beitbridge and Umzingwane was under the emergence category. Community members are advised to access maize and mealie meal through formal channels such as the grain Market- ing Board and for retail shop to avoid being short changed by informal traders.

• In the light of pastures availability under the emergency category in Beitbridge, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Umzingwane, farmers should be advised to feed their cattle with sup- plementary feeds to prevent possible poverty death.

• Reported cases of FMD in Beitbridge call for the need by the farmers to restrict the movement of their cattle to minimise the spread of the disease. Organised formal cattle sales, involving cattle screening and vaccinations by the department of the Veterinary services should be promoted. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators

Vegetation Condition Index

Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for December 2018

The Vegetation Condition Index shows improving vegetation condition in some districts culminating in the following classification: a) Normal (Kariba, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi and Nyanga), b) Alert (Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Umguza). c) Alarm (Chiredzi, Insiza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane) and This is attributed to the commencement of the rain season in Zimbabwe. The detailed table below show the average VCI values per district.

Table 2: VCI values for the 18 districts

District VCI value Crisis Modifier District VCI value Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.54 Alert Mbire 0.75 Normal Binga 0.61 Alert Mudzi 0.87 Normal Bubi 0.45 Alert Mutoko 0.81 Normal Chiredzi 0.41 Alarm Mwenezi 0.53 Alert Insiza 0.42 Alarm Nkayi 0.67 Normal Kariba 0.71 Normal Nyanga 0.76 Normal Lupane 0.55 Alert Umguza 0.56 Alert Matobo 0.49 Alert Umzingwane 0.39 Alarm Mberengwa 0.46 Alert Zvishavane 0.43 Alarm Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Real-time water levels in major rivers

The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicating low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Although the rain seasosn has started across the country, Table 3 show that there is no flooding risk in any of the selected districts. Water levels are increasing across the country as shown by the Mazowe Bridge and Chidodo gauges recording some value showing that water had increased to above the level gauges. For the past six months, these stations were not recording any flow level or rate values since water was below gauge levels.

Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, December 2018.

River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 0.535m Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 1.150m Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 2.73m Normal Musengezi Centenary 0.380m Normal Musengezi Chidodo 2.58m Normal Save Condo Dam 0.258m Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No data

Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators

The micro-indicator data from the 18 districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month.

• Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 10 out of 18 districts. Five (5) districts were in the Alarm stage resulting from effect on pasture availability which is in the Emergency stage and state of water sources in the alarm stage.

• Production indicators are in the Alert category for 12 districts. This is mainly due to the deteriorating livestock body condition as well as the high cases of waterborne diseases. Water borne diseases are in emergency for 14 districts.

• Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category in 14 out of 15 districts which reported. Increased water livestock trekking distance and distances to water sources for households led to this categorization. House- holds in Nkayi travel an average of 7km for water and cattle in Umguza trek an average of 10km for water

• Five (5) districts out of the 15 which reported were in the Alarm stage for trade indicators. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the goat and cattle prices where a goat sells for 120 dollars in Umzingwane and cattle prices were averaging 1000 dollars per beast. Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Table 3: Trigger Indicator summary for December 2018

District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Alarm Bubi Alert Alert Alert Alert Chiredzi Alert Alert Alert Alert Insiza Alert Alert Alert Alert Lupane Alarm Alert Alert Normal Matobo Alarm Alert Alert Normal Mberengwa Alarm Alert Alert Alert Mudzi Alert Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Alert Mwenezi Alarm Alert Alert Alert Nkayi Alarm Normal Alarm Alarm Nyanga Alert Alert Alert Alarm Umguza Alert Normal Alert Alarm Umzingwane Alert Normal Alert Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Alert

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update

Biophysical Trigger indicators

Table 4: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 1 88 3 Bubi 2 73.2 2 Chiredzi 2 48.83 3 Insiza 2 59 3 Lupane 1 109 2 Matobo 1 105 2 Mberengwa 1 38.13 3 Mudzi 2 49 4 Mutoko 4 136 3 Mwenezi 1 55.23 3 Nkayi 2 65 2 Nyanga 3 57.19 3 Umguza 2 65 2 Umzingwane 1 0 4 Zvishavane 2 45.06 3

• Pasture availability was in Emergency category in six (6) districts and in Alarm Category for seven (7) district. Mutoko district was in the Normal category

• The state of water sources was in Alarm category in five (5) districts an improvement from seven (7) in the previous month. Eight (8) districts were in the Alert stage. Mudzi and Umzingwane’ water sources were in the normal category. Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Production Trigger indicators

Table 5: Production trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Livestock Reported Cases of Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Poverty Deaths Livestock Diseases of Waterborne Outbreaks Diseases Beitbridge 1 3 1 21 41 335 Bubi 3 3 2 0 46 80 Chiredzi 3 2 2 61 13 814 Insiza 3 3 1 3 9 119 Lupane 3 1 1 8 31 158 Matobo 3 1 1 6 18 146 Mberengwa 1 3 2 49 529 503 Mudzi 2 1 1 0 -1 411 Mutoko 3 3 3 0 214 371 Mwenezi 3 3 1 86 0 285 Nkayi 3 3 2 0 0 204 Nyanga 2 4 2 0 977 342 Umguza 3 3 2 0 1 288 Umzingwane 3 3 2 0 0 296 Zvishavane 3 3 2 20 366 474

• Eleven districts were in the normal category. whilst two (2) districts; Beitbridge and Mberengwa were in the Alarm stage. Irrigation scheme crops in Beitbridge heavily affected by FAW. • Livestock body condition was in the Alarm stage in six (6) districts. This is mainly due to the pasture availability which is critically inadequate in six (6) districts and in the Alert and Alarm stages in the rest of the districts • Livestock poverty deaths were in the Alarm stage in Mberengwa, Chiredzi and Mwenezi; with Mwen- ezi recording a total of 86 deaths. Four (4) districts were in the alert category. Eight districts were in the normal category with Umguza, Umzingwane and Nkayi which had previously recorded high deaths recording zero this month. • Four (4) districts were in the Emergency stage for reported cases of livestock disease outbreaks. this was mainly due to anthrax cases reported in Insiza, Matobo and Lupane as well as three (3) FMD cases in Beitbridge. Seven districts were in the Alarm stage with Nyanga recording 820 cases of Newcastle. • Water borne diseases were in the Emergency category in 14 out of the 15 districts which reported. Common diarrhoea cases formed the majority of the cases and some dysentery cases in Mudzi, Chiredzi and Mberengwa Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Access Trigger Indicators

Table 6: Access trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 2 3 3 Bubi 1.5 2 No data 3 Chiredzi 1.41 2 4 1.97 Insiza 3 2 No data 3 Lupane 3 2 No data 4 Matobo 3 2 No data 3 Mberengwa 1.86 2 No data 2.83 Mudzi 3 2 No data 5 Mutoko 1.3 2 No data 2 Mwenezi 1.62 2 4 1.75 Nkayi 7 2 No data 3.5 Nyanga 3 2 4 3 Umguza 2.5 3 No data 10 Umzingwane 2 3 No data 2.2 Zvishavane 2.26 2 No data 3

• Distance to water sources is in the Alert category for 13 out of the 18 districts. Households in Nkayi were travelling an average of 7km since last month resulting in the Emergency categorisation.

• Two (2) districts were in the alarm stage on livestock trekking distance for water down from six (6) last month. 11districts were in the alert category.

• There was mostly no data for school attendance as schools had closed for the December holiday.

• Thirteen districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert category. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Trade Trigger Indicators

Table 7: Trade trigger indicator summary for December 2018

Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Mil- Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price let Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 650 80 10 14 15 0 100 15 Bubi 700 60 12 8 10 No data 70 10 Chiredzi 588.24 61.18 10.41 10 10.93 11.2 92.06 9.82 Insiza 700 70 10 8 12 15 70 10 Lupane 650 50 5 8 10 10 60 10 Matobo 500 50 10 10 10 12 60 10 Mberengwa 650 80 10 9 10 12 115 10 Mudzi 350 60 10 10 12 20 75 8 Mutoko 650 50 15 10 12 18 65 10 Mwenezi 620.83 62.08 8.33 8 7.38 15.58 92.5 6.58 Nkayi 650 80 10 10 12 No data 90 12 Nyanga 800 85 12 9 10 50 100 10 Umguza 1000 80 10 10 14 No data 100 14 Umzingwane 700 120 20 15 No data No data 130 No data Zvishavane 935 70 10 10 15 14 100 10

• Cattle prices were in the Emergency category for 12 districts up from five last month as prices of commodities continue to rise. A beast in Umguza is trading at 1000 dollars up from 500 dollars in November • Goat prices were ranging between 50 and 120 dollars resulting in 10 districts being in the Emergency category. Of note is Umzingwane where a goat sold for 12 dollars. • Prices for maize, sorghum, pearl millet remained in the Normal category except for two (2) districts which are in the emergency stage a 20l bucket of maize is priced at $15 in Umzingwane. Rapoko prices were also in the Normal stage except for Nyanga where the price is $50 for a 20l litre bucket. Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals

1. New wheat producer price announced 12 December 2018 https://www.herald.co.zw/new-wheat-producer-price-announced/

2. Seed Co invests US$10m in dryers 13 December 2018 https://www.herald.co.zw/seed-co-invests-us10m-in-dryers/

3. Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook, December 2018 to May 2019 15 December 2018 https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/zimbabwe-food-security-outlook-december-2018- may-2019

4. Livestock industry: Beacon of food production 18 December 2018 https://www.herald.co.zw/livestock-industry-beacon-of-food-production/

5. Mash West farmers counting losses 19 December 2018 https://www.herald.co.zw/mash-west-farmers-counting-losses/

6. Matabeleland farmers happy with new wheat producer price 19 December 2018 https://www.chronicle.co.zw/matland-farmers-happy-with-new-wheat-producer-price/

7. Delayed Rains Threaten Food Security 20 December 2018 https://www.zimeye.net/2018/12/20/delayed-rains-threaten-food-security/

8. Zimbabwe faces prospect of a drought 20 December 2018 https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/12/zimbabwe-faces-prospect-of-a-drought/

9. Farmers warned of African armyworm threat 27 December 2018 https://www.thezimbabwedaily.com/news/300532-farmers-warned-of-african-armyworm-threat. html

10. Farmers call for cloud seeding 28 December 2018 https://www.herald.co.zw/farmers-call-for-cloud-seeding/ Page 12 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019

Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers

Table 8: River water flow categorisation

Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence Masvingo 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%