Bulletin #20 • January 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of December 2018 Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The Indicators 6 High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 7 ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi. Signals 11 [email protected]), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water ([email protected]). level in selected rivers 12 UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019 Overall Results and Implications Summary Classification Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 15 districts were rated “Alert” and the remaining three did not report. Crisis modification activities are continuing in all ZRBF 18 districts as a result of ZRBF HFMS trigger indica- tors and 2018 seasonal outlook, ZiMVAC and FEWSNET. The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of December were: 1. Anthrax Reported Cases in Insiza, Lupane and Mberengwa, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Matobo districts. Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 2. Cattle price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Insiza, 8. Indigenous chicken price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Mutoko, Nyanga and Umzingwane. Umzingwane and Zvishavane 9. Maize price in Beitbridge and Umzingwane. 3. Reported cases of cholera in Mberengwa. 10. Pastures Availability in Beitbridge, Lupane, 4. Reported cases of common diarrhoea in Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Lupane, Matobo, Umzingwane Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, 11. Pearl Millet Price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Insiza, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane Zvishavane 5. Distances to water sources for households in 12. Rapoko Price in Beitbridge and Nyanga. Nkayi 13. Sorghum Price in Beitbridge, Nkayi and 6. Reported cases of FMD in Beitbridge Umguza districts. 7. Goat Price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Insiza, Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 16 months. Table 1: Overall Classification of the 18 districts Bubi Binga Nkayi Insiza Mbire Mudzi Kariba Month Lupane Nyanga Mutoko Matobo Chiredzi Umguza Mwenezi Beitbridge Zvishavane Mberengwa Umzingwane No No No Page 3 Dec-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert data data data No Nov 18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert | data MonitoringReport High Frequency Oct-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Sept-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Aug-18 Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert No July 18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Data June-18 Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert May-18 Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Normal Normal April-18 Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Bulletin #20|January 2019 No Mar-18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Normal Normal data Feb-18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Jan-18 Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Dec-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Nov-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Oct-17 - Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Sep-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019 Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming • Anthrax cases were reported in Insiza, Lupane and Matobo districts. By law, a farmer who suspects anthrax in an animal must notify a government veterinary officer immediately. Ideally, if anthrax is suspected the farm will be isolated and herds vaccinated, and the dead animal disposed of ap- propriately so that contamination of the soil and the spread of the disease to humans is minimised. The community members should be advised not eat meat from the affected cattle as the disease is transferrable to human beings, causing Inhalational and intestinal anthrax. The affected persons should immediately seek medical treatment to prevent possible fatalities. • Reported cases of cholera in Mberengwa and common diarrhoea was rated “Emergency” in Beit- bridge, Chiredzi, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane. The ZRBF consortium in the district should work closely with the Min- istry of Health to carryout public health and hygiene complain to reduce the spread of cholera and other diarrheal diseases. • Distances to water sources for households in Nkayi was rated “Emergency” during the month of December. The ZRBF consortia in the district should work closely with DDF and the Rural District Council to rehabilitated boreholes to improve household access to water. • Maize price in Beitbridge and Umzingwane was under the emergence category. Community mem- bers are advised to access maize and mealie meal through formal channels such as the grain Market- ing Board and for retail shop to avoid being short changed by informal traders. • In the light of pastures availability under the emergency category in Beitbridge, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Umzingwane, farmers should be advised to feed their cattle with sup- plementary feeds to prevent possible poverty death. • Reported cases of FMD in Beitbridge call for the need by the farmers to restrict the movement of their cattle to minimise the spread of the disease. Organised formal cattle sales, involving cattle screening and vaccinations by the department of the Veterinary services should be promoted. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019 Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for December 2018 The Vegetation Condition Index shows improving vegetation condition in some districts culminating in the following classification: a) Normal (Kariba, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi and Nyanga), b) Alert (Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi and Umguza). c) Alarm (Chiredzi, Insiza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane) and This is attributed to the commencement of the rain season in Zimbabwe. The detailed table below show the average VCI values per district. Table 2: VCI values for the 18 districts District VCI value Crisis Modifier District VCI value Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.54 Alert Mbire 0.75 Normal Binga 0.61 Alert Mudzi 0.87 Normal Bubi 0.45 Alert Mutoko 0.81 Normal Chiredzi 0.41 Alarm Mwenezi 0.53 Alert Insiza 0.42 Alarm Nkayi 0.67 Normal Kariba 0.71 Normal Nyanga 0.76 Normal Lupane 0.55 Alert Umguza 0.56 Alert Matobo 0.49 Alert Umzingwane 0.39 Alarm Mberengwa 0.46 Alert Zvishavane 0.43 Alarm Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #20 | January 2019 Real-time water levels in major rivers The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicating low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Although the rain seasosn has started across the country, Table 3 show that there is no flooding risk in any of the selected districts. Water levels are increasing across the country as shown by the Mazowe Bridge and Chidodo gauges re- cording some value showing that water had increased to above the level gauges. For the past six months, these stations were not recording any flow level or rate values since water was below gauge levels. Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, December 2018. River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 0.535m Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 1.150m Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 2.73m Normal Musengezi Centenary 0.380m Normal Musengezi Chidodo 2.58m Normal Save Condo Dam 0.258m Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No data Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators The micro-indicator data from the 18 districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 10 out of 18 districts. Five (5) districts were in the Alarm stage resulting from effect on pasture availability which is in the Emergency stage and state of water sources in the alarm stage. • Production indicators are in the Alert category for 12 districts.