No settlement without a proactive policy: The European Union and the secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space

Barbara Gaweda / Marco Siddi

IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood

No. 5 | 2012 About the Authors Barbara Gaweda is currently working as a public affairs consultant on EU affairs in Brussels. Before, she studied International Relations in Vienna (MA) and Toronto, Canada (BA). Her main field of interest is the post-Soviet space as well as post- communist transitions in general. Marco Siddi is a Marie Curie Researcher at the University of Edinburgh. His main focus is on EU- relations and Russian foreign policy. Previously, he worked at the Trans European Policy Studies Association (Brussels) and at the Institute of World Economics (Budapest). He studied at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna (MA) and the University of Oxford (BA).

About IEP Since 1959, the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) has been active in the field of European integration as a non-profit organisation. It is one of Germany’s leading research institutes on foreign and European policy. The IEP works at the interface of academia, politics, administration, and civic education. In doing so, the IEP’s task include scientific analyses of problems surrounding European politics and integration, as well as promotion of the practical application of its research findings. | www.iep-berlin.de

About KFG The Kolleg-Forschergruppe is a new funding program launched by the German Research Foundation in 2008. The Kolleg- Forschergruppe (KFG) “The Transformative Power of Europe” at Freie Universität Berlin examines the role of the EU as promoter and recipient of ideas, analyzing the mechanisms and effects of internal and external diffusion processes. It brings together research on European affairs in the Berlin-Brandenburg region and institutionalizes the cooperation with other universities and research institutions. A centerpiece of the KFG is the invitation of national and international guest scholars working on the diffusion of ideas as well as the promotion of junior researchers through (post) doc fellowships. | www.transformeurope.eu

About IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood The electronic series “IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood” is dedicated to case studies of Europeanization evaluating the power the EU has to transform its neighbouring countries to foster stability, peace and prosperity. It covers the enlargement countries as well as the eastern neighbours and the Mediterranean region. In this series, young researchers inter alia from the Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG) “The Transformative Power of Europe” and the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) present the results of their analysis in an abbreviated, user friendly form focusing on policy recommendations. “IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood” are published in the framework of the research project “The EU’s policy towards Eastern Europe and Central Asia – A key role for Germany”. The publication is financially supported by the Kolleg-Forschergruppe.

The Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) is a strategic partner of the European Commission, which supports its activities. This paper, like all publications in this series, represents only the view of its authors. Copyright of this paper series is held by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP).

Editorial Team Publisher: Prof. Dr. Mathias Jopp, Director, Institut für Europäische Politik Executive Editor: Dr. Katrin Böttger, Deputy Director, Institut für Europäische Politik Editorial Staff: Dorothee Pätzold, Institut für Europäische Politik Layout: Matthias Jäger, Institut für Europäische Politik

Published in May 2012 Dialog Europa Otto Wolff - Stiftung IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood 2012 3

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Similar to Abkhazia, there has been no change Similar to toward South policies and Russia’s EU’s in the again once EU the 2011, Ossetia. In November neither it recognizes stressed that the EU’s “support to the territorial integrity territorial to the “support EU’s the by as recognised of , and sovereignty law”. On the other hand, Russian international congratulated Medvedev Dmitry President 19 the In March 2012, Ankvab heartily. the Discussions on International Geneva the of by closed with a joint statement crisis in Georgia Representative the three co-chairs, EU Special Special Lefort, OSCE Chairmanship’s Philippe for the South Caucasus Pádraig Representative Antti Representative and UN Special Murphy, unsubstantial of number a outlined They Turunen. part working groups taking of the achievements of the security a review in discussions, including they assessed as on the ground, which situation the participants Apparently, stable. relatively in the context of also tabled a new contribution commitments. force of non-use on discussion the The disclosed. were no details However, to be resumed at on these topics are deliberations the next round of talks in June 2012. South Ossetia Recent developments Recent developments Abkhazia Since the 2008 Russo-Georgian conflict, both the their Russia have maintained European Union and respective positions vis-à-vis Abkhazia. Brussels the authorities in Sukhumi, has not recognized relations diplomatic established has Moscow while The support. and economic and provided military the elections refused to recognise EU and NATO and August 2011 in held were that Abkhazia in Ankvab earn a resounding victory, Alexander saw results election The votes. of the with 55 percent Ashton, the High by Catherine were rejected Union for Foreign of the European Representative Ashton reiterated Policy. Security and Affairs

Barbara Gaweda / Marco Siddi Barbara Gaweda No settlement without a proactive policy: a proactive without No settlement states with separate political states with separate political de facto Nevertheless, the EU has been unable to Nevertheless, the EU has been unable to The existence of these entities, which which The existence of these entities, The European Union and the secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space in the post-Soviet conflicts and the secessionist Union The European necessary. necessary. Based on recent developments in the four separatist conflicts, we have developed five recommendations on how the EU could become more active. “unfreeze” and escalate in regional wars. Since “unfreeze” and escalate in regional wars. Since Brussels has considerable interests in the regions where the secessionist republics are located, in stability and security energy of terms in both the neighbourhood, a more proactive EU role is for Moldova, the South Caucasus and the 2008 and the 2008 for Moldova, the South Caucasus crisis in Georgia. break the stalemate in negotiations and make a The resolution. conflict to contribution significant can conflicts the that showed Georgia in war 2008 to contribute to in Moldova deployed border monitoring missions conflict resolution. Brussels In respectively. 2008 and 2005 in and Georgia presence in addition, it attempted to increase its the field by appointing Special Representatives for EU countries. Following the launch of the launch of the for EU countries. Following the in 2006, European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) more involved the European Union has become in the resolution of the four conflicts. The ENP Azerbaijan Action Plans with Moldova, Georgia, Armenia set a list of priorities for the EU and become institutions and economic structures. international have obtained very limited or no challenge recognition, constitutes a security managed to solve the four separatist conflicts that With demise. of the USSR’s broke out in the wake states (Russia and, in the the help of their patron self- Armenia), the of Nagorno-Karabakh, case Abkhazia, Transnistria, of Republics proclaimed have South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh Twenty-one years after the collapse of the Soviet of the Soviet years after the collapse Twenty-one community has not yet Union, the international 4 IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood 2012 sides toaccelerate efforts toreach agreement a seemingcommitment of thetwobelligerent Aliyev, Sargsyan andMedvedevinSochiexpressed The January2012jointstatement by Presidents results. significant any produced not have 2011) and theOSCEMinskGroup(Vilnius, December mediation attempts of Russia (Kazan, June 2011) comprehensive peace settlement. However, the in 2011 outlined elements of aframeworkfor L‘Aquila in2009,Muskoka2010,andDeauville statements joint of PresidentsMedvedev, ObamaandSarkozyat The conflict. the to resolution been setuptoencourage a peaceful, negotiated of which isheadedbyaco-chairmanship consisting and Baku Yerevan, to Group, Minsk Nagorno-Karabakh bytheOSCE visits and meetings of the international scene.March2012sawaseries of power”between Armenia and Azerbaijan on “balance the in changes by influenced strongly is and volatile regions inthepost-Sovietspaceand Nagorno-Karabakh remainsoneofthemosttense for the except persistent armed skirmishes developments, along the ceasefire line. significant any The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has not witnessed Nagorno-Karabakh NATO incheck. keep US-backed Georgian aspirations of joining South Ossetiaand Abkhazia allows the Kremlin to separatist province. Its military presence in both to exert indirect influence rather than annexing the However, itismorelikelythatRussiawillcontinue republic NorthOssetia,afederalsubjectofRussia. he wouldliketounifySouthOssetiawithitssister be loyaltoRussia.Hehasalreadyannounced that denied recognition to the choice. Tibilov is said to Ossetia’s security service. Both the EU and the US victory ofLeonid Tibilov, theformerheadofSouth February 2012. The spring2012elections saw the struggle after her office was raided by the police in Court’s decision, butwithdrewfromthepolitical Alla Dzhioyeva, refusedtoaccept the Supreme 2012. The winneroftheNovember2011 elections, Ossetia andrescheduledforMarch April were invalidated bythe Supreme CourtofSouth separatist republic that month. In fact, the elections nor the presidential elections that were held in the France , Russia andthe United States andhas been stalled from 2006 to late 2011. InDecember Union andthe United States as observers),have Russia, Ukraine,andtheOSCE,plusEuropean “5+2” format (and include Moldova, Transnistria, ina happen which conflict, Transnistrian the on be anothermissedopportunity. The negotiations gain sometraction,butisincreasingly proving to finally would in Transnistria resolution conflict The turn of2011 and 2012 seemed a moment when Transnistria the 2012Eurovisionsongcontestin Azerbaijan. tensions, Armenia announceditwouldpulloutof 2011. Inasignofwhatcanbeseenasgrowing occurred numerous times throughout 2010and by bothsides.Majorincidents involvingfatalities agreement is being breached on a regular basis ceasefire the meetings, high-level these Despite the subsequent final settlement as soon as possible. complete work onthe framework agreement and been trying to urge the leaders of the sides to Principles Basic the on 1 Timofti Voronin. In a joint statement with Štefan figure. political defeated the veteran Communist leader Vladimir neutral relatively a parliament elected Nicolae Timofti as president, 2012, after3yearsofdeadlock,theMoldovan leadership also happenedinMoldova.InMarch Smirnov (who ruled for 21 years). A change of and replaced the long-standing president Igor won theelections intheseparatistrepublic a relatively newfacein Transnistrian politics, clear result.Laterthatmonth, Yevgeniy Shevchuk, low expectations fromthe outset and yielded no OSCE chairmanship. However, themeetings saw in Vilnius undertheauspicesofLithuanian place took 2006 since talks formal first the 2011, http://www.osce.org/item/51152 Co-Chair countries, press release 10 July 2009, available at: around 10,000).SeetheStatement by theOSCEMinskGroup that wouldincludeapeacekeeping operation (numbering former places of residence; international security guarantees referendum; the right of all IDPs and refugees to return to their final the legal status ofNagorno-Karabakh through a legally-binding of determination future self-governance; and security Nagorno-Karabakh for10-15years,providingguarantees linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh;aninterim status for districts and aprogressivewithdrawal from asixthone);corridor withdrawal of Armenian forces from five out of the seven occupied Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control (entailing the complete in 2007andinclude: thereturnofterritories surrounding h Bsc rnils ee u frad y h OC mediators OSCE the by forward put were Principles Basic The 1 . The Minsk Grouphas (accessedon12 August 2011). Füle, the

IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood 2012 5

states de facto a coherent “Eastern a coherent , clearly defining its start economic and political dialogues and political economic start with the authorities of the the on leverage and to access gain to order in breakaway entities. In order to play a more active role in these role active In order to play a more conflicts, the EU needs Neighbourhood ConflictPrevention Resolution Strategy” and interests, a common strategy and concrete strategy The road maps for implementation. to commitment the EU’s should reiterate law, international under integrity territorial for an guidelines offer but simultaneously with the and cooperation dialogue increased separatist entities. independence that the The EU should accept and South Ossetia is irreversible Abkhazia of and With With regard to the Transnistrian conflict, Minister of Slovakia. This inevitably affects affects This inevitably of Slovakia. Minister when the EU policy in the short run, at a time changes political and 5+2 talks of the reactivation have Moldova may and Transnistria in both for progress in opportunity window of a opened negotiations. Recommendations 1. 2. in the regions in February and March 2012, but no March 2012, in February and regions the in Furthermore, result. a as followed action concrete of in the negotiations plays no role the EU still Minsk the OSCE resolution of the Group for the conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh the EU’s border monitoring mission (EUBAM) along the Moldovan- operate has continued to of which more than a third Ukrainian border, Transnistrian- with the (454 kilometres) coincides Ukrainian EUBAM border. has proved successful at limiting human provided which allegedly activities, other illicit trafficking, smuggling and revenues. Transnistria’s a considerable part of by the success is offset the mission’s However, and continuous up a solid to build failure EU’s in the region. In representation diplomatic February 2011, Brussels abolished the addition, In for Moldova. Representative Special post of on to the 5+2 talks former EU representative the is moving from Lajcak, Miroslav Transnistria, Service to the post of Foreign Action the External In May 2010, the European Parliament Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Since then, the Since then, and Georgia. Azerbaijan Armenia, on the situation held debates European Parliament urging the EU to craft a strategy for the South the for strategy a craft to EU the urging for a The report “The Need Caucasus region. stressed the South Caucasus” the in Strategy to be proactive with respect to obligation EU’s of development the encouraging and stabilizing republics have not allowed EUMM to access to access EUMM to allowed not have republics have clashes major no However, territory. their and EUMM has line on the demarcation occurred contributed to stabilize the ceasefire. adopted a report by a Bulgarian Socialist MEP Mission (EUMM) in Georgia has continued to has continued Mission (EUMM) in Georgia Tbilisi’s between line demarcation the at operate South Ossetia, and Abkhazia provinces, separatist As a response to the EU’s and rump Georgia. two secessionist the them, to recognize refusal appointed Philippe Lefort Special Representative appointed Philippe Lefort Special Georgia. in crisis the and South Caucasus for the former Special both Peter Semneby, Lefort replaced for the South Caucasus, and Pierre Representative for the Morel, previously Special Representative The European Union Monitoring Crisis in Georgia. Russia’s interests in the area. Russia’s What has the EU been doing so far? developments the eye on close a keeping EU is The conflict the after particular in Caucasus, South the in Council EU the August 2011, On 26 2008. in with Transnistria by appointing Dmitry Rogozin to by appointing Transnistria with President the post of Special Envoy of the Russian Rogozin was a tough negotiating Transnistria. for NATO-Russia in his previous job at the partner on Council and is unlikely to make concessions the issue of Transnistria’s status. Until now, now, Until status. Transnistria’s issue of the taken has sides and of the mediators none of the that the In any case, it is unlikely the initiative. conflicting parties will reach an easy compromise on the status issue. Meanwhile, Russia confirmed relationship its to importance utmost attaches it that Romanian Romanian President, Traian Băsescu, said he had reform support for of Romania‘s Timofti assured moving closer to the EU. In in Moldova and for the new leadership hoped that view of this, it was resolve would help Tiraspol in both Chisinau and EU enlargement commissioner, the EU’s High the EU’s commissioner, EU enlargement vote the that said Ashton Catherine Representative the Also in the country. up dialogue would open 6 IEP Policy Briefs on Enlargement and Neighbourhood 2012 4. 3. 5. concessions inareasofhighpriorityforRussia, summits Russia EU- thebiannual of agenda the in conflict The EU should should exploit. Brussels that opportunity of window a opened the reactivation ofthe 5+2 negotiations have Shevchuk’s recent election in Transnistria and that also takesintoaccount Russian interests. result inanewandcomprehensive peaceplan initiatives diplomatic bold EU should the conflict, Transnistrian the to regard With seat oratleastbyacquiringobserverstatus. Minsk Group direct access tothenegotiationsofOSCE The EUshouldalsomakesurethatitgains Azerbaijan are contradictory inthisrespect. current ENP Action Planswith Armenia and of peoplesandstates’ territorial integrity. The reconciling the principles of self-determination and Azerbaijan coherent policythatapplies toboth Armenia the EU needsto conflict, WithNagorno-Karabakh the to regard concerning Transnistria. cooperation from Moscowinnegotiations such asvisa liberalization, so asto obtain more match its economic leverage with leverage economic its match , either by takingoverFrance’s , particularly on theissueof , where Brussels could make could Brussels where , include the Transnistrianinclude define a consistent and a consistent define , whichshould