Beyond Annapolis. the Case for a Stronger EU Engagement by Muriel Asseburg and Volker Perthes*

BEPA Monthly Brief - Issue 12, February 2008 1 Beyond Annapolis. The Case for a Stronger EU Engagement By Muriel Asseburg and Volker Perthes*

In January 2008 peace making on the Israeli- and Ramallah and the Palestinian Authority has Palestinian track was relegated, once more, to focused on restoring law and order in West Bank the backburner. Israeli and Palestinian leaders cities. Yet, other Phase One commitments have were consumed by crisis management as not seen any progress. Neither have significant increased rocket fire on Israel had prompted an steps been taken to normalise Palestinian life, intensified blockade of the Gaza Strip and the nor have settlement outposts been dismantled or break-out of hundreds of thousands of Gaza building in settlements stopped effectively. residents after militants linked to Hamas had Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem have blown open the border fence to Egypt. Those in not been reopened. And with the political split charge of the negotiations were also focused on between West Bank and Gaza Strip persisting, their own political survival. Israeli Prime comprehensive political reform in preparation Minister Ehud Olmert was under pressure to for Palestinian statehood has become illusory. resign in the context of the publication of the Moreover, the Annapolis process does not offer Winograd Committee’s final report. The stand- any constructive way of overcoming that split. It off between the adverse Palestinian governments rather builds on the “West Bank first” strategy in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip endured. adopted by the international community in Renewed peace process efforts kicked off with reaction to Hamas’ violent assumption of power great fanfare by the American administration in in the Gaza Strip last June. This approach November 2007 are thus already under threat of combines two main elements: first, measures becoming stuck or being derailed. aimed at strengthening the Palestinian President In Annapolis, U.S. President George W. Bush and his government in the West Bank (by way of had initiated negotiations on a final status massive diplomatic, financial, economic and between Israelis and Palestinians with the aim of military support as well as peace negotiations); reaching a peace agreement by the end of 2008 and second, the diplomatic and financial and realising the “vision of two states living isolation of Hamas and a far-reaching embargo peacefully side by side.” Indeed, while restarting on the Gaza Strip. It was to lead to flourishing negotiations after seven years of violent strife landscapes in the West Bank as well as provide and unilateral disengagement plans is a “a political horizon.” It should thus convince significant achievement, to date, substantial Palestinians that Fatah were by far the better deliberations on the so-called core issues choice and make them vote out of office, or (Jerusalem, settlements, refugees) have not taken overthrow, Hamas. place. Bush, when visiting Israel and the This approach has blocked any dialogue on a Palestinian territories early this year, failed to new power sharing agreement between the take an assertive stance and instead proclaimed factions. Its main shortcoming is that it does not that he would only be involved to the extent the provide any incentives for a constructive attitude two parties proved serious about making peace. by Hamas – as displayed in the context of the In addition to final status negotiations both sides February 2007 Mecca Agreement when the also committed themselves to live up to their movement agreed to the President leading final obligations under an adapted version of the 2003 status negotiations. It rather holds the danger of road map for peace. In late January 2008, the US a renewed violent escalation that is likely to administration appointed Lt. Gen. William M. derail the Annapolis process. Fraser III to monitor compliance. So far, January’s Gaza break-out engineered by Hamas however, little progress can be registered: has not only provided relief to the imprisoned security cooperation has resumed between Israel population of the Strip, it has also foiled the

* Professor Dr. Perthes is the Director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Dr. Muriel Asseburg heads the Middle East and Africa Division at SWP. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. 1 BEPA Monthly Brief - Issue 12, February 2008 international isolation approach. Rather than Hamas not to torpedo it. Pinning one’s hope on weakening Hamas, the movement has emerged a military solution, strangulation of the with renewed popularity. It has also population or manipulated elections to end demonstrated Hamas' "spoiling power" as it has Hamas rule in Gaza will increase rather than thwarted efforts of the Ramallah government to minimise the incentives for the movement to act convince Israel and the international community as a spoiler. Therefore, if members of the so- to reinstate its control of the Rafah Crossing. called Arab Quartet (Saudi-Arabia, Egypt, Jordan Today, a return to the status quo ante, the and the UAE) attempted to mediate another complete closure of the Strip, the 2005 Agreed power sharing (or technical cooperation) Principles on the Rafah Crossing, or any other arrangement between the Palestinian factions, arrangement that ignores Hamas is no longer a Europeans should not undermine but rather realistic option. support and defend it in face of expected US and Israeli opposition. An arrangement with Priorities for European engagement Hamas is necessary to achieve a comprehensive Time is running short. In January 2009 the cease fire (including a stop to Qassam rockets Presidency of George W. Bush as well as being fired from the Gaza Strip) and thus Mahmud Abbas’ term of office will end. So far, improve the security situation, find a solution to the EU has by and large contented itself with a the Rafah Crossing and alleviate the tragic supportive role in the Annapolis process, humanitarian situation. It is essential for creating propping up Palestinian institutions, providing an atmosphere in which final status negotiations humanitarian aid, and implementing quick can take place and their results be implanted. impact projects to inject money into the West And it is crucial for the success of measures Bank. However, not only is it misled – as a initiated under the EU Action Plan that depend, recent World Bank study points out – to assume above all, on a relaxation of the closure regime that generous donations could lead to sustained and therefore on an improved security situation. development or at least a tangible economic There are other loose ends. Annapolis has not upturn as long as the current closure regime initiated a comprehensive peace process, but left persists. the Israeli-Syrian and the Israeli-Lebanese track It is also high time for the EU to take action to in limbo. In this, the US administration has protect the Annapolis process from being ignored the interdependence of the different derailed or running into deadlock. Strong dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict and failed international guidance and backing will be to address the causes of the 2006 Lebanon war. essential for Mahmud Abbas and Ehud Olmert Russia has announced it will hold a conference to be able to take the difficult steps needed in on the Syrian-Israeli track in March or April. If order to bridge the divide. The EU therefore there is a chance for resuming this track, should engage vigorously in convincing the US Europeans should coordinate among member as well as other Quartet members (Russia and states and with Quartet partners to set up an the UN) that a stronger chaperonage is needed. appropriate format to lend support. Together with other Quartet members, the EU Last but not least, Europeans should be should present a blueprint for a final status concerned about their role in implementing a settlement once bilateral negotiations run into peace deal. This will not only include tasks such deadlock. This means preparing a common as monitoring the parties’ performance and an understanding on such a blueprint today. As increased role (maybe even military) in securing opinion polls show, the public in both Israel and borders and keeping the parties apart. It will also the Palestinian territories is in principle prepared involve helping to find a solution to some of the to accept a reasonable solution along the Clinton most sticky issues – for example by contributing Parameters. generously to a compensation fund for refugees The current situation poses the tricky challenge as well as absorption of those Palestinian of reconciling an approach that is built on refugees who cannot return or permanently pursuing a peace process with the Palestinian settle in their host countries. President with measures that can convince

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