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The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

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The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses Special Conflict Report The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses October 18-20, 2002 Waging Peace. Fighting Disease. Building Hope. The Carter Center strives to relieve suffering by advancing peace and health worldwide; it seeks to prevent and resolve conflicts, enhance freedom and democracy, and protect and promote human rights worldwide. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses October 18–20, 2002 One Copenhill 453 Freedom Parkway Atlanta, GA 30307 (404) 420-5185 Fax (404) 420-3862 www.cartercenter.org July 2003 The Carter Center The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Foreword eptember will mark the 25th anniversary one environment may be useful in addressing similar of the Camp David Peace Accords. That issues in a totally different environment. In this historic moment remains the high-water report, we strive to distill the most important mark for diplomacy in the Middle East. elements that emerged from two days of discussions To this day, not one element of that agree- into a brief and useful document that may provide Sment has been violated; Egypt and Israel remain at insights on how to advance discussions regarding peace. September also will mark the 10th anniversary the final settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict of the Oslo Peace Accords, which provided the first once that stage is reached. real opportunity to resolve perhaps the most difficult I would like to express my appreciation to those of the remaining elements required for regional peace participants: Professor Mari Fitzduff from INCORE and stability: an agreement between Israel and its in Belfast; Joseph Montville, formerly director of Palestinian neighbors. Current attempts to advance the Program on Preventive Diplomacy, Center for a Road Map for peace, created through the Strategic and International Studies in Washington; combined efforts of the United States, the United Professor William Zartman from the School of Nations, the European Union, and Russia, now Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins occupy our attention, as diplomacy continues to University; Dr. Bruce Jones from the Center on compete with violence in the latest campaign to International Cooperation, New York University, move toward a lasting peace in the region. formerly chef de cabinet to the U.N. special coordi- Looking for ways to contribute to the resolution nator for Middle East negotiations; Professor William of intractable conflicts is a focus of attention for the Quandt from the University of Virginia, formerly a Carter Center’s International Council for Conflict member of the National Security Council staff during Resolution (ICCR), a body composed of leading my administration; and John Marks, president, and ex-politicians, diplomats, and academics as well as Susan Collin Marks, executive vice president, of technical experts in the field of conflict resolution. Search for Common Ground in Jerusalem. Their In October 2002 a small group that brought together contributions to this program were inspiring, and ICCR members with leading regional experts met at their continued cooperation with, and interest in, The Carter Center in Atlanta to discuss the ongoing our activities have been most gratifying. conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. The The Carter Center’s Conflict Resolution Program purpose was to examine the situation using a com- hosted this event as the first in what will be a series parative analysis of other violent struggles, seeking of small group symposia on intractable wars. Program to identify common threads of thought that could staff continually monitor the world’s conflicts, inform policy-makers engaged in peacemaking efforts large and small alike, in an effort to maintain their in the Middle East. This comparative analysis, always readiness to engage in direct mediation when called recognizing the specific concerns unique to the area, upon by the parties involved, either on their own or proved to be a fruitful point of departure for what by providing support to me. I am grateful for their turned out to be a remarkable two days of intense work, with the assistance of members of the ICCR, discussion among the participants. in holding this symposium and assembling this report. While some concepts are limited in their appli- cation to specific conflicts, others prove to be more universally applicable. Lessons learned in 2 The Carter Center The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Where Do We Stand? By Dr. Bruce D. Jones was able to stop their rivals from influencing the Center on International Cooperation selection of party candidates for parliamentary elections. Netanyahu’s support in Likud’s Central s we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian Committee enabled him to place several loyalists context is defined by a series of inter- on the Likud list, creating a list considerably more related phenomena: a continuing rightist than Sharon’s public posture. Simultaneously, Aloss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; defeated Labor leader Ben-Eliezer used his influence political turbulence (and some convergence) in to oust key doves, such as party stalwart Yossi Beilin. Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of Adding to the confusion, Likud has become reform and Chairman Arafat’s leadership; a factional embroiled in a scandal about reported extortion struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; of cash for placement on party lists. Though the devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser scandal temporarily weakened Likud’s prospective but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; seat gains, it had little impact on the final polls. and public attitudes on both sides defined by the The turbulence masked an important degree of concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but convergence. The Labor Party leadership race, for with trends showing a worrying erosion of support example, began as a contest between Ben-Eliezer for peaceful solutions. The international context is (who projected a tough-on-terrorism image) and defined by growing consensus on substantive issues Haim Ramon, from the dovish faction of the Labor among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; Party. Mitzna came in as an alternative dovish some remaining tactical and presentational differ- candidate, albeit one who as a former senior Israel ences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and Defense Forces general was able to project a credible anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the image on security. Notwithstanding Labor’s compara- consequences of regime change in Iraq. The tively dovish stance on talks with the Palestinians, combination—alongside President Bush’s decision the result of interfactional politics within Labor to publish the Road Map following the confirmation was “a Labor list that even Sharon could lead.” 1 of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially Similarly, to win the leadership of Likud, Sharon represents a turning point. defeated former Prime Minister Netanyahu by staking out a position as a Likud moderate: tough on terror- Political Turbulence, Political ism but willing to make political progress with the Convergence in Israel Palestinians. Sharon has presented a moderate face on such issues as a Palestinian state and a Road Map his report is being finalized some months after for creating it (on which, more below). A Palestinian Israeli elections returned Likud Prime Minister T terrorist attack during the election led to the odd Ariel Sharon to power with a strengthened Knesset spectacle of the Labor Party head criticizing Sharon presence. In the lead-up to elections, both Sharon for the lack of a tough response. and Amram Mitzna endured bitter leadership feuds On the Palestinian issue, the main differences within their parties, revealing significant cleavages between Sharon and Mitzna, as articulated during the with their parties and considerable similarities across the parties. Though both won their contests, neither 1 Yossi Verter, Ha’aretz, 11 December 2002. 3 The Carter Center The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict campaign, related to (i) the size of an acceptable reformer; after June 24, “anti-Arafat” equals Palestinian state; (ii) the nature of its “attributes of “American agent.” (See page 6.) Of senior officials, sovereignty”; (iii) the timetable for achieving it; and only Abu Mazen has consistently been willing to (iv) the question of Palestinian sovereignty in East criticize Arafat on the use of violence and terrorism. Jerusalem. Both Likud and Labor reject any com- It was this willingness that generated both internal promise on the question of right of return. A further and external support for the campaign to appoint difference was Mitzna’s willingness to unilaterally Abu Mazen as prime minister designate—in effect withdraw from the territories if negotiations don’t creating an alternative leadership structure alongside achieve results, while Sharon has rejected unilateral Arafat. As this report is being finalized, Abu Mazen separation. The substantive differences are significant (with U.S., U.N., E.U., and Egyptian support) has but not insurmountable. During the election cam- presented Arafat with a quasi-reformist Cabinet paign, the difference on which most emphasis was which incorporates such figures as Mohamed Dahlan placed was a tactical one: that Mitzna would begin and Salaam Fayyed, now put in charge of security discussions immediately, while Sharon continued to and finances, respectively, which
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