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GCC Food Industry | Septembers 10, 2019 Page | 1 GCC Food Industry | Septembers 10, 2019 Page | 1 Alpen Capital was awarded the “Best Research House” at the Banker Middle East Industry Awards 2011, 2013 and 2014 GCC Food Industry | September 10, 2019 Page | 2 Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................ 7 1.1 Scope of the Report ..................................................................................... 7 1.2 Industry Outlook ......................................................................................... 7 1.3 Key Growth Drivers ...................................................................................... 7 1.4 Key Challenges ........................................................................................... 8 1.5 Key Trends ................................................................................................. 8 2. THE GCC FOOD INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ................................................... 9 2.1 Country-wise Market Overview ..................................................................... 15 2.2 Demand and Supply of Major Food Categories ................................................ 22 2.3 Food Security Initiatives .............................................................................. 28 3. THE GCC FOOD INDUSTRY OUTLOOK ................................................... 35 3.1 Forecasting Methodology ............................................................................. 35 3.2 The GCC Food Consumption Forecast ............................................................. 35 3.3 Country-wise Market Size Forecast ................................................................ 37 4. GROWTH DRIVERS ............................................................................... 44 5. CHALLENGES ........................................................................................ 47 6. TRENDS ............................................................................................... 49 7. MERGER AND ACQUISITION (M&A) ACTIVITIES .................................. 55 8. FINANCIAL AND VALUATION ANALYSIS .............................................. 57 8.1 Financial Performance ................................................................................. 57 8.2 Valuation Analysis ...................................................................................... 63 COUNTRY PROFILES ......................................................................................... 66 COMPANY PROFILES ........................................................................................ 73 GCC Food Industry | September 10, 2019 Page | 3 “The recent economic history of the GCC countries and the UAE has shown remarkable resilience even after being subject to variables outside its control, like the international Financial Crisis and global oil prices. Luckily, the Government is carrying instrumental decisions that will shape the future of the country, having a positive cascading effect on the industries including the Food Industry, like the economic stimulus packages announced in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The UAE’s growth rate has been above the region’s average over the past decade, a sign of positive outlook in the years ahead. The governments’ policy to reduce oil dependency has had a positive impact on favorable policies for the Food Industry. However, the Food Production industry has not reached saturation yet in view of the sizeable production food deficit to overcome. There is a responsibility for the industry to grow further. The Food Industry’s growth is facilitated by the growth of three major sectors in the country which are the Wholesales & Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Agriculture. The Food Industry contributes 72% to the Wholesale & Retail Trade. Other factors to stimulate the growth of the Food Industry will be about understanding the consumer, anticipating the consumer behavior and changing demography. A unique population structure which leads to a complex environment of consumer needs will translate into high demand. It is expected that consumer confidence will remain consistent. Consumer behavior is evolving through increase of online shopping, smarter shoppers through repetitive purchases, price perception, retail trader’s promo abuse, health and food wastage consciousness. Major trend now is imports dependent. However, leveraging upon the country’s infrastructure may turn the UAE in becoming the major hub for food in the GCC. Future evolution of the industry will be driven necessarily by consumer needs, rise of Health consciousness, online shopping, increasing in sales of packaged goods, multi-cultural consumer base and Foods Value Chain digitalization.” Joachim Yebouet Chief Executive Officer FOODCO Holding PJSC, UAE “The GCC Food market is likely to follow the population growth of the region. The higher percentage of young population makes the overall category outlook even more attractive. The driving factors for the industry are going to be Health, Taste, Nutrition, Convenience and Cost. The key manifestation for ‘health and nutrition’ is going to be Fresh, Natural, Preservative-free, Non-GMO, Organic and simple to understand ingredients list. These requirements will make local production and sourcing even more compelling. ‘Ordering in’ and ‘Eating out’ is going to significantly increase. Traditional Food Supply Chain systems will need to adapt to the said changes. Distribution systems will need to support not only brick and mortar retail and food service outlets but will also learn to be “aggregators” for dark, cloud and virtual kitchens, the proliferation of which is happening at a reasonable speed. Food Companies will need to “Innovate” to provide localized thematic offerings with greater speed by making investments in food technologists, technology, labs, equipment’s and supply chain systems. However, the Food Industry does face challenges which is in the form of skilled technologists, cost disruption in key raw material ingredients, higher supply chain costs and lack of incentive to support R&D due to the relative ease of import substitution.” A F Merchant Executive Director IFFCO, UAE GCC Food Industry | September 10, 2019 Page | 4 “While majority of the GCC produce less food, Oman food production has witnessed ample growth during the last ten years. This rise is driven by high demand, better efficiency and continued creation of awareness by relevant government and NGO’s who emphasize the need for better nutrition and work very closely with local food producers to enhance fortification programs across the food value chain. The demographics play a major role in the GCC in sustaining and maintaining current levels of volume; however, Oman enjoys a better position due to the fact that the potential for improving consumption from the protein group is promising with the advent of newly established projects in the areas of dairy, poultry, red meat, fisheries and feed. Whilst the GCC needs to attract more investors to food production, a better business friendly ecosystem has to be continually fostered by relevant government institutions. Oman was very successful in driving major initiatives in this regard where the InvestEasy platform and newly established Investment Center plays a major role in creating an investment easy environment which encouraged more local investors and FDI’s to invest in agriculture, fisheries, food processing and food logistics. Oman Food Investment Group (OFIC) is mandated to drive major investment in the multi food spectrum by announcing a number of projects that will position Oman as a major GCC food supplier and a source for high standard-freshly-produced food. This will only be attained by attracting best local and global talent coupled with improved investment appetite and attractive funding “. Saleh Mohamed Alshanfari Chief Executive Officer Oman Food Investment Group (OFIC), Oman “Overall consumption in the region is expected to rise owing to the population growth and evolving consumer preferences. The economy is being boosted by rising tourism which will not only drive food sector growth but also improve consumer confidence. The UAE has one of the highest internet penetration rates in the world, with 98.4% of its population using the internet in 2017. This is an important factor which is boosting e–commerce activities, thereby lifting Food & Beverage sales. At the same time, consumption of staple carbs, snacks and meat substitutes are also growing strongly by value and volume. One key challenge facing the sector is to increase self-sufficiency and reduce the import bill of the region. This is being addressed by encouraging local and international investments. For example, the UAE is investing more than US$ 5 billion in India in order to buy more food products at cheaper prices. This will allow for the creation of the India–UAE food corridor which will significantly boost the export of food products such as poultry, vegetables, fruits and cereals from India to the UAE. We can see several emerging trends in the food sector. Rising rate of obesity and other lifestyle related diseases augment the demand of organic and healthy food. The trend to adopt popular diets like Keto and Paleo are changing consumer views towards carbohydrates and fats. These diets encourage consumption of fat over carbohydrates which will bring about a change in consumption patterns. Digital penetration and tech savvy consumers are making better purchasing decisions using digital platforms and tools. In
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