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The Political Consequences of the Great Recession in Southern Europe Crisis and Representation in Spain Guillem Vidal Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, 13 June 2019 ii European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences The Political Consequences of the Great Recession in Southern Europe Crisis and Representation in Spain Guillem Vidal Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Prof. Hanspeter Kriesi, European University Institute (Supervisor) Prof. Elias Dinas, European University Institute Prof. Eva Anduiza, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Prof. Kenneth M. Roberts, Duke University © Guillem Vidal, 2019 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work Department of Political and Social Sciences - Doctoral Programme I Guillem Vidal certify that I am the author of the work The Political Consequences of the Great Recession in Southern Europe: Crisis and Representation in Spain I have presented for examination for the Ph.D. at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 63.058 words. Statement of inclusion of previous work: I confirm that chapter 2 was jointly co-authored with Björn Bremer and I contributed 50% of the work and draws upon an earlier article published in Evdoxios Doxiadis and Aimee Placas (eds.), Living Under Austerity: Greek Society in Crisis, vol. New York: Berghahn Books, 113– 140. I confirm that chapter 3 was jointly co-authored with Dr. Swen Hutter and Dr. Hanspeter Kriesi and I contributed 33% of the work and draws upon an earlier article published in Party Politics (2018), 24:1, 10–22. I confirm that chapter 4 draws upon an earlier article I published in West European Politics (2018), 41:2, 261–286. I confirm that chapter 5 was jointly co-authored with Irene Sánchez-Vítores and I contributed 60% of the work. Statement of language correction: This thesis has been corrected for linguistic and stylistic errors. I certify that I have checked and approved all language corrections, and that these have not affected the content of this work. Signature and date: v vi To my family and friends, without whose never-ending entertainment this dissertation would have been finished in half the time. vii viii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... Xi Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ Xiii List of tables ......................................................................................................................................... Xvii List of figures ........................................................................................................................................ XiX Chapter 1: Crisis Dynamics and Political Transformations: An Introduction ....................................... 1 Chapter 2: From Boom to Bust: A Comparative Analysis of Greece and Spain under Austerity ....... 17 Chapter 3: Old versus new politics: The political spaces in Southern Europe in times of crisis ......... 47 Chapter 4: Out with the Old: Restructuring Spanish Politics ............................................................... 75 Chapter 5: Challenging Business as Usual? The Rise of New Parties in Spain in Times of Crises ............................................................................................................ 103 Chapter 6: Conflict Activation in Times of Crisis: The Case of Catalonia ........................................ 131 Chapter 7: Conclusion: Towards a new structure of conflict in Southern Europe? ........................... 163 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................... 169 Appendices ........................................................................................................................................... 185 ix X Abstract The Great Recession constituted a breaking point in several aspects of the cultural, economic and political life of southern European countries (i.e. Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain). This dissertation aims to shed light on the political consequences of the economic crisis in this region —with a specific focus on Spain as a paradigmatic case— by analysing different aspects of the political transformations that took place during the period of crisis. The underlying argument is that, albeit some relevant differences, the four countries experienced a common pattern: the incapacity of national politics to offer differentiated recipes to the deteriorating economic situation triggered a widespread crisis of representation that introduced new issues in the political agenda and drove the political transformations in these countries. The combination of a political and economic crisis at the national and European levels opened new political spaces that new parties capitalised by appealing to the need for democratic renewal and opposition to austerity politics. Furthermore, as illustrated by the Spanish case, and in particular the Catalan experience, the political crisis had far-reaching consequences beyond economic grievances, leading to the activation of different types of conflicts. Overall, the findings suggest that the transformations in the structure of political conflict in southern Europe in the aftermath of the Great Recession are not the by-product of a growing cultural divide —as is the case in several other continental and north-European countries—, but instead respond to the loss of credibility in the political system. Methodologically, the dissertation relies on an original dataset of media content as well as on several sources of survey data to test the empirical validity of the claims. xi xii Acknowledgements The work that follows, as any intellectual exercise, is inextricable from one’s own life experience. If the topic of this dissertation is about the political consequences of the Great Recession in southern Europe with a focus on Spain, it is because, as a young student at the time the Great Recession broke out, I witnessed first-hand the political and social reaction that the crisis triggered in my immediate environment and became profoundly captivated by it. I had to know more about what this social and political earthquake meant. Captivation turned into curiosity, and curiosity into questions. If I have had the privilege to dedicate the last five years at the European University Institute —with a stay in the Carlos III University in Madrid— to reflect and analyse some of these questions in an exceptional cultural and intellectual environment, it is thanks to the many people who have supported me and influenced my thinking in a myriad of ways. To all of them I owe any of the good that the reader might find in this dissertation. The words that follow, even if they inevitable fall short to express all of my gratitude, are dedicated to them. Several of the underlying ideas behind this work are strongly influenced by the collective endeavour of the POLCON (Political Conflict in the Shadow of the Great Recession) project. Each of the members of the team have contributed greatly to my intellectual development over the years. The long discussions, the conferences, the endless hours spent on planning, writing, analysing and coding, even the disagreements, have shaped each of us, without a doubt, into who we are today, both personally and professionally. The project, which would have not been possible without Maureen – our unconditionally supportive secretary and friend – has been an unforgettable challenge. Certainly not always easy, but enormously rewarding on many different levels. I would like to thank my supervisor, Hanspeter Kriesi, for his intellectual mentorship over the years. The influence that his thinking and method of working has had on me is impossible to xiii overstate. For that, and for allowing me the freedom to explore my own path while providing valuable feedback and advice, I am eternally grateful. I would also like to thank my unofficial second supervisor and friend, Swen Hutter, for becoming an indispensable source of encouragement during the difficult times when the purpose and direction of the research seemed lost, and generously dedicating his time to helping me structure many of the ideas behind this work. Without his personal and professional