Completion Report Project Number: 40046-013 Loan Number: 2356 April 2015 Tajikistan: Khatlon Province Flood Risk Management Project This document is being disclosed to the public in accordance with ADB’s Public Communications Policy 2011. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit – somoni (TJS) At Project Design At Project Completion (31 August 2007) (6 April 2015) TJS1.00 = $0.29 $0.17 $1.00 = TJS3.44 TJS5.80 ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank CES – Committee for Emergency Situations CIS – Chubek irrigation system CPS – country partnership strategy DMF – design and monitoring framework EIRR – economic internal rate of return ha – hectare Hydromet – Agency for Hydrometeorology ICB – international competitive bidding JFPR – Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction km – kilometer MLRWR – Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources NCB – national competitive bidding NGO – nongovernment organization O&M – operation and maintenance PCR – project completion report PIO – project implementation office PMO – project management office PPTA – project preparatory technical assistance SDR – special drawing rights WRM – water resources management GLOSSARY jamoat – administrative unit below the district, comprising a group of villages; also the lowest level of local government administration NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the government and its agencies ends on 31 December. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2009 ends on 31 December 2009. (ii) In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. Vice-President W. Zhang, Operations Group 1 Director General K. Gerhaeusser, Central and West Asia Department (CWRD) Director A. Siddiq, Environment, Natural Resources and Agriculture Division, CWRD Team leader R. Takaku, Senior Water Resources Specialist, CWRD Team members G. Farosatshoeva, Senior Project Assistant, CWRD P. Barrameda, Associate Project Analyst, CWRD In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. CONTENTS Page BASIC DATA i I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1 II. EVALUATION OF DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION 2 A. Relevance of Design and Formulation 2 B. Project Outputs 3 C. Project Costs 6 D. Disbursements 7 E. Project Schedule 7 F. Implementation Arrangements 7 G. Conditions and Covenants 8 H. Consultant Recruitment and Procurement 8 I. Performance of Consultants, Contractors, and Suppliers 9 J. Performance of the Borrower and the Executing Agency 9 K. Performance of the Asian Development Bank 10 III. EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE 10 A. Relevance 10 B. Effectiveness in Achieving Outcome 10 C. Efficiency in Achieving Outcome and Outputs 11 D. Preliminary Assessment of Sustainability 12 E. Impact 12 IV. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS 13 A. Overall Assessment 13 B. Lessons 13 C. Recommendations 14 APPENDIXES 1. Design and Monitoring Framework 16 2. Project Costs and Disbursements 18 3. Project Implementation Schedule 19 4. Status of Compliance to Loan Covenants 20 5. Consultant Inputs 27 6. Economic Reevaluation 29 7. Contribution to the ADB Results Framework 40 BASIC DATA A. Loan Identification 1. Country Tajikistan 2. Loan Number 2356 3. Project Title Khatlon Province Flood Risk Management Project 4. Borrower Republic of Tajikistan 5. Executing Agency Ministry of Water Resources and Land Reclamation (replaced by Agency of Land Reclamation and Irrigation in November 2013) 6. Amount of Loan SDR14,403,000 7. Project Completion Report Number PCR: TAJ-1498 B. Loan Data 1. Project Design – Date Started Waived – Date Completed Waived 2. Loan Negotiations – Date Started 28 August 2007 – Date Completed 29 August 2007 3. Date of Board Approval 5 October 2007 4. Date of Loan Agreement 2 November 2007 5. Date of Loan Effectiveness – In Loan Agreement 2 December 2007 – Actual 4 December 2007 – Number of Extensions 1 6. Closing Date – In Loan Agreement 30 June 2014 – Actual 15 August 2014 – Number of Extensions 0 7. Terms of Loan – Interest Rate 1% per annum during the grace period and 1.5% per annum thereafter – Maturity (number of years) 32 – Grace Period (number of years) 8 8. Disbursements a. Dates Initial Disbursement Final Disbursement Time Interval 27 February 2008 23 June 2014 77.9 months Effective Date Original Closing Date Time Interval 4 December 2007 30 June 2014 78.9 months ii b. Amount (SDR ‘000) Last Original Revised Amount Amount Category or Subloan Revised Allocation Allocation Canceled Disbursed Allocation 01 Civil Works 7,247 8,906 8,914 (1) 8,915 02 Vehicles 85 84 84 0 84 03 Equipment 1,862 2,641 2,573 0 2,573 04 Surveys and Designs 246 0 0 0 0 05 Training and Workshops 77 55 50 0 50 06 Consulting Services 1,506 1,832 1,864 (3) 1,867 07 Project Management and O&M 530 352 330 (19) 349 08 Interest Charge 579 533 533 0 533 09 Unallocated 2,271 0 55 55 0 Total SDR 14,403 14,403 14,403 32 14,371 Total $ (‘000) 22,000 22,333 22,330 47 22,283 ( ) = negative, O&M = operation and maintenance, SDR = special drawing rights. 10. Local Costs (Financed) - Amount ($ million) 9.24 - Percent of Local Costs 64.50 - Percent of Total Cost 33.76 C. Project Data 1. Project Cost ($ million) Costa Estimated Actual Foreign Exchange Cost 10.08 13.04 Local Currency Cost 18.42 14.33 Total 28.50 27.37 a includes government financing. 2. Financing Plan ($ million) Cost Estimated Actual Implementation Costs Borrower Financed 6.50 5.09 ADB Financed 21.11 21.46 Total 27.61 26.55 IDC Costs Borrower Financed 0.00 0.00 ADB Financed 0.89 0.82 Total 0.89 0.82 Total Project Costs 28.50 27.37 ADB = Asian Development Bank, IDC = interest during construction. iii 3. Cost Breakdown by Project Component ($ million) Component Estimated Actual A. Base Cost 1. Policy Reforms 0.30 0.27 2. Improved Physical Measures 18.21 23.02 3. Improved Non-physical Measures 1.54 1.12 4. Capacity Building for Efficient Project Management 2.65 2.13 Subtotal 22.70 26.55 B. Contingencies 1. Physical Contingencies 4.40 0.00 2. Price Contingencies 0.51 0.00 Subtotal 4.91 0.00 C. Interest Charges 0.89 0.82 Total 28.50 27.37 4. Project Schedule Item Estimated Actual Date of Contract with Consultants February 2008 July 2008 Completion of Engineering Designs October 2008 December 2009 Civil Works Contract Packages 1-5 Date of Award October 2008 April 2008 Completion of Work March 2009 July 2010 Package A Date of Award October 2009 January 2009 Completion of Work March 2010 July 2010 Package B Date of Award October 2009 September 2009 Completion of Work March 2010 September 2011 Additional Scopes Date of Award May 2008 Completion of Work December 2012 Equipment and Supplies Dates First Procurement April 2008 November 2008 Last Procurement August 2012 November 2012 Completion of Equipment Installation January 2009 December 2013 Start of Operations Completion of Tests and Commissioning December 2012 December 2013 Beginning of Start-Up January 2013 January 2014 Other Milestones Policy Reforms First Activity May 2008 August 2008 Last Activity June 2011 December 2012 Flood Risk Maps First Activity January 2009 January 2009 Last Activity December 2010 December 2010 Flood Preparedness First Activity January 2009 January 2009 Last Activity December 2010 December 2010 Flood Forecasting First Activity November 2008 November 2008 Last Activity January 2012 December 2013 Flood Warning First Activity December 2008 December 2008 Last Activity April 2013 April 2013 iv 5. Project Performance Report Ratings Ratings Development Objectives Implementation Progress Implementation Period From November 2007 to December 2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory From January 2011 to June 2014a On Track a e-Ops became operational in 2011 and replaced the project performance rating. The indicators used in rating project performance are: (i) Technical; (ii) Contract Award; (iii) Disbursement; (iii) Financial Management; and (v) Safeguards. D. Data on Asian Development Bank Missions No. of No. of Specialization of Name of Mission Date Persons Person-Days Membersa Loan Fact-Finding Mission 21 May–6 June 2007 5 51 b, i, j, k, f Appraisal Mission Waived Inception Mission 10–20 February 2008 2 22 a, b Review Mission 1 9–15 October 2008 1 7 b Midterm Review Mission 3–13 November 2009 2 22 b, c Review Mission 2 29 July–9 August 2010 2 24 b, d Review Mission 3 17–23 November 2011 2 14 b, e Review Mission 4 24 October 2012 1 1 b Review Mission 5 3–6 December 2013 2 5 b, f Project completion review 26 May–5 June 2014 4 44 b, f, g, h a a = project administration unit head; b = senior water resources specialist, c = project implementation officer, d = integrated water resources management specialist; e = associate project officer; f = associate project analyst; g = project economist (consultant); h = national monitoring and evaluation specialist (consultant); i = counsel; j = economist; k = rural development specialist. I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Tajikistan is a mountainous and landlocked country with significant river systems. In 2010, only 3.8 million hectares (ha) of the county’s total area of 14.3 million ha was agricultural land.1 Agriculture is the major source of livelihood for the population, accounting for 45% of the country’s employment, and 57% of all rural employment; output from agriculture generates 24% of the gross domestic product. Tajikistan remains the poorest country in Central Asia.2 2. Khatlon Province occupies the southwest corner of Tajikistan, adjacent to the border with Uzbekistan to the west and Afghanistan to the south. It has the largest population (2.7 million), agriculture production (e.g., 774,000 tons of cereal production), and arable land (410,000 ha) in the country, and is Tajikistan’s poorest province (in 2009 the poverty rate was 54%, compared to a national average of 47%).3 The province’s share of agriculture sector employment (57.4%) is the highest among the regions.