Asian Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction January 23 rd 2013 , Kobe, Japan

Application of space based technologies for Disaster Risk Assessment at the level of communities

A. Shomahmadov Head of the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee of ES and CD,

SSpacepace Based Technologies Application

GIS mapping and application of geospatial information systems, which have become widespread and recognized in Tajikistan, allow to use innovative and effective approaches for the analysis of the information about disasters and solve tasks on their prevention and risk reduction. They play an especially important role for decision-making in socio- economic, economic, political and ecological spheres of development, disaster and natural resources management. A lot of agencies and departments are getting more and more concerned with the lack of qualified specialists who can effectively use GIS technologies and geospatial information systems for scientific research and decision-making.

1 SSpacepace Based Technologies Application Recent important achievements of the GIS technologies and remote sensing: 1. Monitoring and Early Warning System was installed in 2004 at the lake Sarez and it conducts the following kinds of measurements: Surface displacements on the body of the Usoi Landslide Dam; Registration of strong movements during earthquakes; Water level of the lake and maximal wave height; The water discharge of the Murghab river; Turbidity of the drain flow from the lake; Meteorological data. Components of the Monitoring System are used for the activation of the warning system and they are integrated into EarlyWarning System. The transmission of all data, warning signals and remote supervision over the system is carried out through the satellite system INMARSAT, or locally, through cables on short distances. All the data received by the system, are available on the website of the Committee of Emergency Situations of Tajikistan – www.khf.tj

Data Transmission System

MU9 a 2 Flow sensors 2 x 2 Flood sensors Satellite Barchidiv (Automatic activating) (Inmarsat IOR)

MU9 b Alarm control Barchidiv 1 Inmarsat D+ panel (Manual activating) (Manual activating)

MU1 GPS 1 HF Right landslide (voice+ alarm desactivaton) 1 Inmarsat D+

MU2

Near right landslide on firm rock 1 SMA with own

Phone line levels 2, 3, 4 MU3 (existing Tajik HydroMeteo services station) Irkt Flow meter CU + MU6 1 HF existing (voice) (Automatic activating) 1 SMA, 3 VHF, Khorog 1 Inmarsat D+, MU4 1 Meteostation 1 HF (voice) 2 lake level (PLL) 1 Inmarsat D+ Bay 2 Lake level (WLL) wires levels 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4

MU5

Control panel Dam crest, (Manual activating) central part Villages Villages Villages 1 HF (Voice) zone 3 zone 2 zone 1 1 Inmarsat D+ 1 HF (voice) 1 HF (voice) 1 HF (voice) MU7 1 Inmarsat D+ 1 Inmarsat D+ 1 Inmarsat D+ Dam (downstream) 2 x 2 Flood sensors House Murghab river 1 VHF Level 4: Back to normal signal Level 3: Escape signal

Level 0: Normal situation. Transmission of parameters Level 1: Abnormal situation. Check to be done MU8 Level 2: Get ready signal 1 SMA Dam toe Кадам Маскаев 2-4.09.2009

2 Data Processing

90 daily average 2004 100 100 80 daily average 2005 90 90 lower-upper decile 1940-1994 70 mean 1940-1994 80 80 min-max 1940-1994 70 70 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 20 Discharge in Barchidiv 20 30 Lake level

10 10 C orrelation R x100 (365 days) 20 100xR

Discharge inBarchidiv (m3/s) 0 0

10 Lake level (m ) (+3200) - D ischarge (m 3/s).

0

3 6 0 1 30.04.38 24.01.41 21.10.43 17.07.46 12.04.49 07.01.52 03.10.54 29.06.57 25.03.60 20.12.62 15.09.65 11.06.68 08.03.71 02.12.73 28.08.76 25.05.79 18.02.82 14.11.84 11.08.87 07.05.90 31.01.93 1.01 .0 1.04 .0 .07 1.08 1.09 .1 .1 1.12 0 01.02 01 0 01.05 01 01 0 0 01 01 0

3270 1941-1991 1941 1956 1973 1976 3265 1978 2004 2005

3280 3260 3259 60 3275 Tendency curve : y = 0.3442x + 3237.5 3258 Lake level 3270 Discharge 55 3255 3257 3265

3256 [m] level Lake 50 3250 3260 3255 3255 3254 45 3245

Lake level (m ) 3250 3253 Lake level (m ) 40 Discharge (m 3/s) 3252 3245 3240 3251 35 3240

3235 3235 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Discharge in Barchidiv [m3/s] 3230 02.1 1.75 22.1 2.75 10.0 2.76 31.0 3.76 20.0 5.76 09.0 7.76 28.0 8.76 17.1 0.76 06.1 2.76 25.0 1.77 1 9 3 8 1 9 4 1 1 9 4 4 1 9 4 7 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 3 1 9 5 6 1 9 5 9 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 4

Кадам Маскаев 2-4.09.2009

Space Based Technologies Application

2. Participation in the implementation of JAXA mini-project called “Representation of susceptibility to landslides of Khatlon province and Central ”. This project has been implemented by the Geoinformational Centre of Asian Institute ofTechnology in Thailand: During the implementation of this project 32 satellite images have been received and processed; Multispectral satellite images have been used for identification and designing of landslide susceptibility maps of 2 most populated regions of Tajikistan; The satellite data obtained within the frame of this project will be used for the monitoring of important objects, such as nature reserves, dams, glaciers, glacial lakes with outburst flood risk. These data will also help designing developmental maps of regions (for state authorities and decision-making officials), and solving DRR tasks.



3 Space Based Technologies Application

3. FOCUS, JICA, JAXA and Sentinel Asia trainings on the usage of GIS technologies, remote sensing for Disaster Management (loading and processing of satellite images, before and after the disaster), and also for disaster risk assessment: The obtained spatial data and GIS trainings allow to solve problems of Disaster Prevention, Risk Assessment and Disaster Risk Reduction in a more efficient and reliable way. 4. Disaster risk assessment and vulnerability assessment of Tajikistan communities: GOOGLE images are generally used; Space images received from free spatial information systems (satellites), such as GOOGLE, USGS, Sentinel Asia (for example, flooding in Vose’ district; earth flows in , Asht and Muminobod districts in 2010-2012), UN-SPIDER (a massive landslide and a mud-stream in Khuroson district in 2009), NASA (the Medvezhiy Glacieradvancing in Vanj district in 2011) are also used.

Some examples of the application of space based technologies for disaster risk assessment at the level of communities.

4 INTRODUCTION

The first practice of IMAC carrying out disaster risk assessment on community level was realized within the framework of the UNEP/UNDP/OSCE/NATO international project “Environment and safety in the Fergana valley” in August 2006. Within the framework of this project: 18 settlements in Isfara, Konibodom and Asht districts of Sughd province were preliminary examined; 12 most vulnerable settlements were detected, and detailed examinations of dangerous exogenous hydro-geological processes were carried out, with the help of experts from corresponding organizations; A detailed report was compiled, and hazard maps were designed.

Оценка риска селевой опасности масштаб 1 : 25 000 Условные обозначения

Селевой бассейн

Направление смыва и транзита селевого материала водными потоками

Основные направления движения селевого потока в зоне непосредственной опосности

Пролювиально -селевой конус выноса

Селесброс (180 м длинна в метрах ) в рыхлых отложениях

1620,2 Дамбы каменные

Отстойник

Участки , наиболее пострадавшие при активизации селевыхНеподтопляемые потоков и, нонаводнений требующие и которомпроведения существует превен Ворух угрозативных затоплениямер и организации при повторных охранных наводнениях зон . Зона риско - ванного земледелия при отсутствии защитных соо - Огород 1636,1 ружений Производственные объекты расположенные в зоне непосредственной опасности селевого воздействия

Рекомендуемые участки размещения населения при эвакуации в случае возникновения чрезвы - чайных ситуаций

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Сада на селевом конусе вноса а 1579,1 Д

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Отстойник Огород Реки

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1236 Высотные отметки

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5 Оценка риска селевой опасности масштаб 1 : 10 000 Условные обозначения Защитные сооружения . Берегозащитные дамбы из камней и бетона

Участки рек ,где отсутствуют защитные сооружения . Зона подверженная воздействию наводнений и селевых потоков

Русло селеопасных горных водотоковк

Джайрахона Возможные направления движения селевого потока

Типы водных потоков : Водный без твердой составляющей , Грязевые , Грязекаменные

Неподтопляемые , но требующие проведения превентивных Ш ай д ан мер и организации охранных зон . Зона рискованного земле - делия при отсутствии защитных сооружений

Зона , где возможно прохождение селевых потоков при интенсивных ливневых дождях в горных районах

Шк ола Гора Шутарсая Населенные пункты Махалла Миенаи -Туда Рекомендуемые участки размещения населения Пулизаргар при эвакуации в случае возникновения чрезвы - чайных ситуаций Участки , наиболее пострадавшие при активизации селевых потоков и наводнений и которым существует угроза зато - Ленина пления при повторных наводнениях

Места возможного перекрытия русла рек и каналов при запорах (мосты , переходы , трубопроводы )

Эрийгитов Сады и огороды

Автодороги

Реки

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Б Культуры Парк

К П М F

Подготовка к стихийн ым бедствиям и снижение риска для общин рассположеных в зонах высо - кого риска Ферганской долин ы Таджикистана UNEP - /UNDP/ /O SCE/ NATO

INTRODUCTION

Within the framework of the joint project between the German InternationalCenter (GIZ) and the Committee of ES and CD (October- November 2008) :

Sociological and geological examinations of 259 settlements in 3 districts of the Zeravshan Valley of Sughd province were carried out; The results of the examination were used for creating a database in cooperation with experts from the international organization “Mission East”; 25 most vulnerable settlements were detected, and additional examinations were carried out with the purpose of developing projects for disaster prevention and reduction of potential disaster damages; Schematic hazard maps of communities were compiled, and places for projects realization were defined.

6 Introduction

In the course of implementation of separate projects within the framework of DIPECHO program (2003-2007), during the examination of separate settlements for present hazards and vulnerability, it became obvious that a methodology for disaster risk management was needed. Such methodology was developed in Tajikistan by organizations “Mission East”, “Caritas" (Switzerland, Luxembourg), ”Oxfam” (Great Britain) in close cooperation with IMAC of the Committee of ES and CD. The method was named МЕСО (the abbreviation of the names of the above mentioned organizations).



7 Results

The methodology was initially tested in 100 settlements of in Khatlon province of Tajikistan (2007-2008). Then the methodology was improved and tested during the implementation of the German International Center (GIZ) project in 259 settlements of the Zeravshan Valley (Panjakent, Ayni and Gornaya Matcha districts) of Sughd province (2008-2009). This method was applied for sociological and geological examinations in settlements of Asht district in Sughd province, Khuroson, Hamadoni, , Shurabad and districts of Khatlon province, Rasht, Nurobod and Tojikobod districts of Rasht region (2010-2011).



Results

From May till August, 2009, an examination for disaster risk assessment was carried out in 86 settlements of 10 districts of Kulob region in Khatlon province. This examination was conducted with the support of international organizations “Mission East”, “Caritas”, “Oxfam”, and new methodology, improved during an implementation of GIZ project in ZeravshanValley (October 2009) was applied. It was the first attempt of the application of space based technologies, in the form of GOOGLE images, for the assessment of disaster risks.

8 Results

The implementation of ADB Project (in cooperation with ACTED) on disaster hazard assessments in 130 vulnerable settlements of 4 pilot areas of Khatlon province (Shurabad, Farkhor,Panj, and Hamadoni districts, 2010-2011).

Examinations for disaster risk assessment were carried out in 20 settlements of Asht district in Sughd province with the support of ACTED organization (Khujand, November- December,2010).

Maps of disaster hazards were developed for settlements of Pandjakent and Ayni districts in Sughd province in cooperation with “Mission East” (September-October, 2010).

9 10 Results

Disaster risk assessment was carried out in 19 settlements of Khuroson district in Khatlon province with the support of the Asian Disaster Reduction Center in the period from December 2011 till March 2012.

Disaster risk assessment was conducted in 47 settlements of Rasht, Nurobod and Todjikobod districts of Rasht region, and also Ayni, Pandjakent districts of the Zeravshan Valley (Sughd province).

11 Conclusion The following results were acquired in the process of disaster risk assessment at the level of vulnerable communities of Tajikistan: A methodology for disaster risk assessment at the level of communities (settlements) was developed. On the basis of this methodology, sociological and geological examinations were carried out and hazard maps developed for more than 600 settlements of Khuroson, Hamadoni, Farkhor, Shurabad and Panj districts of Khatlon province; Rasht, Nurobod and Todjikobod districts of Rasht region (2010-2012). The results of assessments in regions are issued as separate reports and combined into a developed unified database, which is regularly edited and updated. Is methodology is relatively low-technological and helps communities to observe, analyze and deepen their understanding of disaster risks in the surrounding them environment. One of advantages of this methodology is that it is an express method allowing of fast examination and studying a considerable quantity of communities using limited resources. The results acquired with the help of this methodology have increased its importance not only for communities, but also for the officials and NGOs working on disaster risk reduction and management.



12 Conclusion

Space images and other spatial data acquired in the course of implementation of separate projects and trainings allow to use them for: carrying out of disaster risk and vulnerability assessment and designing hazard maps in especially vulnerable regions of Tajikistan. monitoring of the important objects (nature reserves, dams, glaciers, glacial lakes with outburst flood risk), as well as for working out of developmental maps of regions, and handling other problems. As an effective and reliable solution of the problems of Disaster Prevention and Disaster Risk Reduction. analysis of the information on disasters and handling the problems on Disaster Prevention and Disaster Risk Reduction. decision-making in socio-economic, economic, political and ecological spheres of development, disaster and natural resources management. integrating of Disaster Risk Reduction in the programs of regions development.

Suggestions

We propose international Space agencies, and other international organizations, expansion of informational exchange opportunities and activities on capacity building in developing countries, i.e.: To develop mechanisms of granting satellite images of territories not only after disasters, but also for projects and researches on disaster risk reduction. To simplify the procedures of granting satellite images during disasters, before publication in mass-media the information about disasters,and/or receiving data on damage or victims. Granting satellite data of high resolution of the limited (small) territory, for a better assessment of the situation during disaster. Organization of joint research projects on capacity building and replenishment of the scientific knowledge base in the field of disaster risk reduction. Experience exchange in the fields of application of new methods of risk assessment, advance research based disaster early warning, new technologies based successful projects results, and within the framework of RESAP planning. Granting of the archival satellite data accompanied with trainings on the usage of space data, remote sensing and GIS solutions in the field of Disaster Risk Reduction.

13 Thank you for your attention!

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