Crystal Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund
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Thailand Company Focus Crystal Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund Bloomberg: CRYSTAL TB | Reuters: CRYSTALu.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 8 Oct 2019 BUY Solid high yields play (Initiating Coverage) • A retail property fund that aims to convert into a REIT, Last Traded Price ( 7 Oct 2019): Bt9.70 (SET : 1,613.71) backed by a 179% increase in fund size to Bt11.3bn Price Target 12-mth: Bt10.80 (11% upside) • Initial investment in two projects of Bt4bn and investing in eight more projects of Bt7.3bn by end-4Q19, giving a DPU Potential Catalyst: New assets acquisition, rental reversion, occupancy accretion of Bt0.02 rates • Well-diversified portfolio in prime suburban areas with Analyst excellent tenant mix and growth potential Thailand Research Team +662 857 7823; [email protected] Nantika WIANGPHOEM, CFA +66 28577836 [email protected] • Initiating coverage with BUY rating and DCF-based TP of Bt10.80, with a yield of 7.5% in FY20F and IRR of 8% Exciting conversion. Crystal Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund Price Relative (CRYSTAL) is in the midst of converting into Bualuang K.E. Retail Real Estate Investment Trust (BKER). It had initially invested in two projects – the Crystal and the Crystal Design Center – worth Bt4bn with an NLA of 42,967 sqm. It is in the process of acquiring new assets (eight projects) of Bt7.3bn with an NLA of 96,366 sqm. This will enlarge the asset size by 179% to Bt11.3bn, with a total NLA of 139,333 sqm (100% leasehold). After the conversion, BKER will be jointly managed by co-REIT managers (K.E. Group and BBLAM). It will be able to gear up to 35% TAV and raise capital, providing it with opportunities to acquire new assets from various sponsors, Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (Btm) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F including K.E. Group and the other existing sponsors. Gross Revenue 380 377 381 1,536 Net Property Inc 337 331 335 976 Differentiating with submarket position and diverse tenant mix. Total Return 291 288 290 634 BKER’s assets comprise community malls with high occupancy Distribution Inc 296 265 276 631 located in the prime suburban areas of Bangkok. As the REIT will EPU (Bt) 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.73 EPU Gth (%) nm (4) 62 (2) focus on the lifestyle experiences of customers in each asset, its DPU (Bt) 0.76 0.68 0.71 0.73 tenants mix will be determined discreetly and designed to meet DPU Gth (%) nm (11) 4 3 customers’ shopping preferences and behaviour. This would help NAV per shr (Bt) 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.1 PE (X) 20.4 21.2 13.1 13.3 differentiate BKER’s assets from other retails REITs, make its Distribution Yield (%) 7.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 operations more resilient, and give it a competitive edge during P/NAV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 times of economic uncertainties. Aggregate Leverage (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.4 Valuation: ROAE (%) N/A 4.3 7.1 9.9 Our TP of Bt10.80 for BKER is based on DCF (WACC: 5.8%). Key Risks to Our View: Consensus DPU (Bt): N/A N/A N/A Other Broker Recs: B: 0 S: 0 H: 0 A sluggish economy, digital disruption and new supply could weigh on BKER’s occupancy and rental reversion, thus affecting ICB Industry : Real Estate its earnings and distribution. ICB Sector: Equity Real Estate Investment (REITs) Principal Business: Retail REIT At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 390 Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 3,783 / 124 Major Shareholders (%) Source of all dataon this page: Company, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Benchakij Pattana Co Ltd 20.7 Thailand Social Security Office 19.3 Kiat Sahamitr Co Ltd 10.0 Free Float (%) 40.8 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.06 ed: CK/ sa: PY, CS Company Focus Crystal Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund SWOT Analysis Strengths Weakness • Prime location: BKER’s assets are located in high-traffic • Rental reversion: As BKER’s assets come with high areas, i.e. residential areas of Bangkok. The assets come with occupancy rates, rental reversion should be a potential key transport systems and sizeable parking areas that help catalyst for its future earnings. The retail sector is currently provide customers with convenient accessibility. in a recovery stage from sluggish growth in the last couple of years. Nonetheless, we see benefits in BKER’s strategy of • Submarket differentiation: BKER’s retail assets are varied asset re-tenanting in sustaining its operations. (i.e. shopping centres, specialty malls, and community malls) and located mostly in the prime suburban areas of Bangkok. • Fund/REIT size: CRYSTAL’s fund size is relatively small Their focus on customers’ wellness and lifestyle would help (with a total fund size of Bt4bn. This can result in low trading differentiate BKER’s assets from other retails REITs and gives it liquidity and make it less attractive to large institutional a competitive edge. investors. • Diverse tenant mix: BKER will focus on tenants with However, after its new asset acquisitions, BKER will experience in the retail arena with the utlimate aim of creating potentially be the 2nd largest REIT in terms of total asset value a diverse tenant mix. A suitable mix of tenants would help (TAV) in the retail REIT space in Thailand. Thus, we believe enhance customer experiences, boost shopper traffic, and this transaction would help enhance BKER’s liquidity and its lessen its reliance on any one particular achor tenant. attractiveness to institutional investors. • High occupancy: The majority of BKER assets are located in prime suburban areas with high occupancy rate. This is due to consistently high shopper traffic and robust demand in the the residential and neighbouring areas for each of its assets. This can help cushion BKER against a sluggish economy. • Experienced co-REIT and property managers: K.E. REIT Management (a subsidiary of K.E. Group) and BBL Asset Management (BBLAM) will be the co-REIT managers and K.E. Group will be main BKER’s property manager. K.E. Group and BBLAM boast high levels of experience and expertise in direct retail real estate and finance, respectively. Opportunities Threats • New asset acquisitions: BKER currently has more than 37 • Economic volatility: Any negative developments arising properties in the pipeline for potential future acquisitions. from economic weakness may erode BKER’s revenue and Furthermore, there are ample acquisition candidates from earnings, thus weighing on its DPU. small- and medium- sized developers that wouuld give BKER the opportunity to enlarge its asset size. • Digital disruption: The advent of e-commerce has become a major threat to the retail business. However, BKER’s • Growth strategy: New supply will be limited in the medium strategy of adapting to customers’ changing lifestyles and tolong term due to the high barriers to entry for the retail preferences could allow the REIT to offer a unique customer business (i.e. scarcity of land and high land price in prime experience that would help attract/maintain shopper traffic locations). This should help stabilise the occupancy rate and at its malls. enable BKER to pursue positive rental reversions going forward. Source: Company, DBSVTH Page 2 Company Focus Crystal Retail Growth Leasehold Property Fund Business overview Conversion to REIT by end-2019. CRYSTAL Retail Growth BKER: Investment portfolio by assets value Leasehold Property Fund (CRYSTAL) is in the process of converting into Bualuang K.E. Retail Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (BKER), after its shareholders gave their approval at an annual general meeting on 30 April 2019. Initial assets , The new shares to be issued for the conversion are 36% Bt11,340m 390,000,000 units. The swap ratio for CRYSTAL to BKER New assets , shares is 1:1. The conversion is expected to be completed by 64% end-2019, running in parallel with its new asset acquisitions. Note that the conversion may or may not subject to taxes as BKER will be the 1st property fund converting into a REIT after the conversion tax exemption period (the REIT manager is currently seeking the opinion of the Revenue Department, as Source: Company, DBSVTH the tax structure has yet to be finalised). BKER: Investment portfolio by NLA Investment portfolio of up to Bt11.4bn. BKER will invest in a The Sammakorn The Sammakorn total 10 projects at the maximum acquisition value of Ratchapruek, 3% Place Rangsit, 2% Bt11,387m, which represents 6.7% premium the lower The Amorini, 4% appraised value by two independent appraisers. The I'm Park, 5% The Crystal Design The Scene , 5% Center The total NLA shall be 139,333 sqm. The top three largest (CDC), 26% assets by area are 1) the Crystal Design Center with 36,103 The Sammakorn Place Ramkhanhaeng sqm, 2) the Crystal Ekkamai-Ramindra with 30,778 sqm, and (West), 7% 139,333sqm 3) the Crystal Ratchapruek with 24,436 sqm, accounting for The Plearnary, 26%, 22%, and 18% of the total NLA, respectively. The Crystal 8% Ekkamai- The Crystal Ramindra, BKER has diverse tenants mix focusing on customers’ lifestyle Ratchapruek 22% and experiences; thus, its top three tenants by total NLA as of , 18% end-2Q19 are in Food & Beverage (19%), Home Decoration (18%), and Lifestyle (15%). Source: Company, DBSVTH Our assumption. We estimated BKER’s total investment portfolio to be Bt11,340m include the two initial assets of c.Bt4,055m – the Crystal (Ekkamai-Ramindra) and the Crystal Design Center – and the new assets of c.Bt7,285m.